We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 3879 pips/ticks profit out of the following 31 events in the fourth quarter of 2023 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2023 was 13,607 pips/ticks.
Q4 2023
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (9 pips & 115 points / 6 October 2023)
US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (11 pips / 12 October 2023)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (67 ticks / 12 October 2023)
USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (84 ticks / 12 October 2023)
Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) (154 pips / 13 October 2023)
University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (15 pips & 37 points / 13 October 2023)
US Census Bureau Retail Sales (13 pips / 17 October 2023)
Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (39 pips / 17 October 2023)
DOE Petroleum Status Report (49 ticks / 18 October 2023)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (83 ticks / 19 October 2023)
US Durable Goods Orders and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (20 pips / 26 October 2023)
US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) (8 pips & 43 points / 1 November 2023)
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (58 pips & 83 points / 3 November 2023)
USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (76 ticks / 9 November 2023)
University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (6 pips & 26 points / 10 November 2023)
US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (58 pips & 222 points / 14 November 2023)
US Producer Price Index (PPI) and US Retail Sales (76 pips & 66 points / 15 November 2023)
US Jobless Claims (17 pips / 16 November 2023)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (57 ticks / 16 November 2023)
US Durable Goods Orders (24 pips / 22 November 2023)
University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (26 pips / 22 November 2023)
Turkey interest rate decision (TCMB) (1668 pips / 23 November 2023)
US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) (36 pips / 5 December 2023)
US Jobless Claims (29 pips / 7 December 2023)
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (35 pips / 8 December 2023)
University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (47 pips / 8 December 2023)
FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections (67 pips & 104 points / 13 December 2023)
Norway interest rate decision (Norges Bank) (907 pips / 14 December 2023)
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (52 pips / 21 December 2023)
US BEA Personal Income and Outlays and US Durable Goods Orders (38 pips / 22 December 2023)
DOE Petroleum Status Report (50 ticks / 28 December 2023)
Total trading time would have been around 47 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)
Navigating the Waves of Market Volatility: Insights from Recent Economic Data
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, understanding the nuances of economic reports and central bank decisions is akin to mastering the art of navigation in the high seas of global finance. The recent flurry of economic data and policy announcements offers a treasure trove of insights for both seasoned investors and market novices alike. This blog post delves into the significant economic events from late 2023, analyzing their impact on various financial markets and what they portend for future market dynamics.
Unraveling the Tapestry of Economic Indicators
Economic reports such as the US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are pivotal in shaping market sentiment and monetary policy. Similarly, decisions by central banks, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and other international bodies, play a crucial role in determining the cost of borrowing money, which in turn influences economic growth and inflation.
The Ripple Effects of US Economic Reports
The US economy, being the largest in the world, has a profound impact on global markets. For instance, the Non-farm Payrolls report for early November showed a significant movement, with a change of 58 pips & 83 points, underscoring the labor market's resilience or concerns, depending on the data's context. Such fluctuations often lead to volatility in the forex, bond, and stock markets as investors adjust their portfolios in response to the health of the US economy.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, saw movements of 11 pips in mid-October and a notable 58 pips & 222 points in mid-November. These shifts highlight market reactions to inflationary pressures, influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Global Perspectives: From Sweden to Turkey
The economic reports are not limited to the US. International data, such as Sweden's CPI and Turkey's interest rate decision, also sway market sentiments. Sweden's CPI movement of 154 pips in mid-October indicates significant inflationary trends or deflationary pressures, affecting the Swedish Krona and potentially influencing the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy.
Turkey's dramatic interest rate decision movement of 1668 pips in late November reflects the country's economic policy stance and its implications for currency volatility, inflation, and international trade relations.
Central Bank Decisions: A Balancing Act
Central bank decisions, such as those made by the FOMC and Norges Bank, are critical. For instance, the FOMC's interest rate decision and projections in mid-December led to a 67 pips & 104 points movement, illustrating the market's sensitivity to US monetary policy. Such decisions impact global borrowing costs, investment flows, and currency values.
Forward-Looking Strategies
Given the intricate dance of economic indicators and central bank policies, investors and traders must adopt forward-looking strategies to navigate market volatility. Staying informed about upcoming reports, understanding the historical context of data releases, and diversifying portfolios can mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.
The Importance of Diversification
Diversification across asset classes, sectors, and geographies is a time-tested strategy to spread risk. The variability in market reactions to different reports underscores the unpredictability of financial markets and the need for a well-rounded investment approach.
Staying Informed and Agile
In a world where information is king, staying abreast of economic calendars and market analyses is paramount. Agile investors can adjust their strategies in response to new data, seizing opportunities or hedging against potential downturns.
Conclusion
The latter part of 2023 has been a vivid reminder of the dynamic nature of financial markets, driven by a complex web of economic reports and central bank decisions. By dissecting these events and understanding their implications, investors and traders can better navigate the uncertain waters of global finance, making informed decisions that align with their investment goals and risk tolerance. As we look ahead, the ability to interpret economic indicators and anticipate policy shifts will remain indispensable tools in the investor's toolkit.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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