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18 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 25 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 18 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 25 April 2024.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (8 pips)

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Understanding the First Quarter GDP Growth of 2024

The U.S. economy started 2024 with a more moderate growth pace, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate showing a 1.6% annual growth rate in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. This figure marks a slowdown from the 3.4% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, hinting at a mixed economic landscape as the year unfolds.

Key Drivers of Growth

The modest growth in GDP this quarter was primarily driven by increased consumer spending, especially on services like healthcare and financial services. This was supplemented by gains in residential fixed investment and nonresidential fixed investment, as well as heightened activity in state and local government spending. However, these positive contributions were somewhat offset by a decline in private inventory investment and an increase in imports, which act as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.

Among the standout sectors, the report highlighted a notable increase in intellectual property products and a surge in compensation for state and local government employees. On the downside, the automotive and energy sectors experienced declines, pulling the goods segment down despite the broader gains in services.

Economic Deceleration Points

The deceleration in GDP growth from the previous quarter can be attributed to slower consumer spending, a dip in federal government spending, and a decrease in exports. Although residential fixed investment showed acceleration, it wasn't enough to fully counterbalance the slowdowns elsewhere.

Inflation and Income Trends

Inflation indicators from the first quarter reveal a continued pressure on prices, with the price index for gross domestic purchases rising to 3.1% from 1.9% in the prior quarter. Similarly, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index climbed to 3.4%, up from 1.8%. These figures suggest an uptick in inflationary pressures, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

On the income front, current-dollar personal income saw a substantial increase of $407.1 billion, a significant rise compared to the $230.2 billion increase in the previous quarter. This boost in personal income was largely fueled by rises in compensation and personal current transfer receipts. However, the personal saving rate dipped to 3.6% from 4.0%, indicating that despite higher incomes, savings were lower—perhaps a reflection of increased consumer confidence or rising costs.

Looking Ahead

While the first quarter GDP report shows growth, the mix of accelerating and decelerating factors across different sectors paints a complex picture of the U.S. economy. The forthcoming "second" GDP estimate due on May 30, 2024, will provide a clearer view as it will include more complete data.

Investors, policymakers, and analysts will be watching closely to see if these trends hold, particularly with regard to inflation and how it might shape responses from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, individuals will feel the impact of these economic shifts in their daily lives, from employment prospects to purchasing power.

In summary, the first quarter of 2024 has set the stage for a year that could be marked by careful balancing acts in economic policy and personal finance management, amidst a landscape of gradual growth and shifting investment dynamics.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

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13 pips potential profit in 90 seconds on 24 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDCAD on Canada Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDCAD moved 13 pips on Canada Retail Sales data on 24 April 2024.

USDCAD (13 pips)

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Canadian Retail Sales Slightly Dip in February 2024

In February 2024, Canadian retail sales experienced a marginal decline, edging down 0.1% to $66.7 billion. This subtle decrease reflects a challenging month for several key subsectors, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada.

Subsector Performance

The decrease in retail sales was primarily led by a 2.2% drop at gasoline stations and fuel vendors. This sector also saw a significant reduction in volume terms, with sales decreasing by 3.9%. Despite the overall dip, not all areas experienced declines. The motor vehicle and parts dealers subsector, for example, saw an increase of 0.5%. Within this group, other motor vehicle dealers reported a robust growth of 5.1%, with new car dealers also up by 0.3%.

Core Retail Sales Hold Steady

Interestingly, when excluding gasoline stations and fuel vendors as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers, core retail sales remained unchanged from January. This stability is noteworthy, considering the fluctuations seen in specific subsectors. General merchandise retailers reported a rise of 1.1%, while health and personal care stores saw a smaller increase of 0.4%.

However, these gains were offset by decreases in other areas, including a 1.5% fall in sales at furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers. Clothing and related products retailers also faced challenges, with sales decreasing by 1.0%.

Regional Insights

Provincially, sales trends varied. Alberta witnessed the largest decline with a 1.1% decrease, primarily driven by lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In contrast, British Columbia recorded the largest increase, with sales rising by 1.2%, led by the same subsector.

In Ontario, a modest decrease of 0.2% was observed, with lower sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors contributing to this trend. The Toronto metropolitan area experienced a more pronounced decrease of 2.3%.

E-commerce Continues to Grow

Retail e-commerce sales presented a brighter spot in February's retail landscape. On a seasonally adjusted basis, e-commerce sales climbed 1.9% to $3.8 billion, now representing 5.7% of total retail trade. This marks a slight increase from the 5.6% share observed in January, suggesting a continued shift towards online shopping among Canadian consumers.

Looking Ahead

Providing a glimpse into the future, Statistics Canada's advance retail indicator suggests that retail sales remained stable in March. This estimate, based on responses from 61.9% of companies surveyed, will be revised as more data becomes available. However, it offers a preliminary sign that the retail sector might be steadying after a fluctuating start to the year.

In conclusion, while the overall decrease in retail sales for February was slight, the varied performance across different sectors and regions highlights the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the Canadian retail landscape. As businesses continue to adapt to shifting consumer preferences and economic conditions, the coming months will be critical in shaping the trajectory of the retail sector in 2024.

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240424/dq240424a-eng.htm

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67 pips potential profit in 89 seconds on 24 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURSEK first on Sweden Labour Force (LFS) data

According to our analysis EURSEK moved 67 pips on Sweden Labour Force Survey (LFS) data on 24 April 2024.

EURSEK (67 pips)

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Unpacking the March 2024 Labour Force Survey: A Detailed Analysis of Sweden's Employment Landscape

In March 2024, Sweden's labour market faced some challenging shifts, as indicated by the latest data from Statistics Sweden. The figures paint a nuanced picture of the employment sector, marked notably by an increase in unemployment rates, particularly among women and young people. Here, we delve into the key insights from the March 2024 Labour Force Surveys (LFS) to understand the implications and trends shaping Sweden's workforce.

Rising Unemployment Rates

The latest data reveals a concerning uptick in the number of unemployed people, increasing by 86,000 to a total of 525,000. This jump has pushed the unemployment rate to 9.2%, a significant rise of 1.5 percentage points. Notably, the impact has been more pronounced among specific demographics, including women and the youth, where unemployment rates have surged even higher. The figures reflect broader economic pressures and potential shifts in industry demands.

Employment and Labour Force Participation

Despite the rise in unemployment, the total number of people employed stands at 5,188,000. However, when dissected further, the data shows disparities in employment rates between genders. Men have a higher employment rate of 70.8%, compared to 65.8% for women. The overall labour force participation has seen a slight improvement, with a 0.1 percentage point increase to 75.4%, suggesting a larger number of individuals are either employed or actively seeking work.

Trends in Permanent and Temporary Employment

The composition of the workforce has also seen shifts, particularly in the types of employment people are engaging in. There has been a noticeable decrease in temporary employment, dropping by 74,000 from the previous year, which could indicate a move towards more stable employment conditions or perhaps a cut in temporary job offerings. The number of permanent employees slightly increased, suggesting a potential stabilization in job security for many.

Youth Unemployment: A Growing Concern

One of the more alarming trends from the report is the sharp increase in youth unemployment. The rate for individuals aged 15-24 has escalated to 29.6%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points. This spike could be indicative of difficulties facing young entrants into the job market, possibly driven by a lack of suitable job opportunities or the competitive nature of entry-level positions.

Unused Labour Supply

Another critical aspect highlighted in the report is the unused labour supply, which averaged 24.6 million hours per week. This figure represents potential productivity that is not being utilized in the economy, equivalent to 615,000 full-time positions. This underutilization could suggest mismatches in the job market where the skills of the labour force are not aligning with the demands of available jobs.

Looking Ahead

The March 2024 LFS data gives us important insights into the current state and challenges of the Swedish labour market. It's evident that certain groups are facing more significant hurdles, with increases in unemployment rates particularly impacting women and young people. As we look to the future, these trends highlight the need for targeted policy interventions and support programs to help those most affected and to bridge the gap in unused labour potential.

For policymakers, understanding these dynamics is crucial to devising effective strategies to foster a more resilient and inclusive job market. For businesses, the shifting landscape presents both challenges in workforce planning and opportunities to innovate in how they recruit, train, and retain talent.

As we continue to navigate these turbulent times, staying informed and adaptive will be key to overcoming the challenges presented by the evolving employment landscape in Sweden.

Source: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/labour-market/labour-force-surveys/labour-force-surveys-lfs/pong/statistical-news/labour-force-surveys-lfs-march-2024/

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20 pips potential profit in 100 seconds on 18 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 20 pips on US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey data on 18 April 2024.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

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Analyzing the April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Key Insights and Implications

The April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey provides valuable insights into the current state and future expectations of regional manufacturing activity. Collected from April 8 to April 15, the responses offer a comprehensive overview of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the sector.

Current Manufacturing Trends

In April, the survey highlights a continued expansion in manufacturing activity. Notably, the diffusion index for current general activity increased by 12 points to 15.5, marking its highest level since April 2022. This rise reflects improved sentiments among manufacturers, with approximately 38% of firms reporting increases in general activity. This positivity is further supported by gains in new orders and shipments, suggesting a robust demand and operational uptick.

Despite these positive signs, the employment index remained in the negative territory at -10.7, continuing a trend observed over the past 14 months. The decline indicates ongoing challenges in the labor market within manufacturing, with firms reporting a higher rate of employment decreases compared to increases. This aspect of the survey underscores a critical area of concern that could affect production capacity and growth prospects if prolonged.

Price Dynamics

Price indexes from the survey indicate sustained pressure on costs. The prices paid index soared to 23.0 in April from 3.7 in March, signaling that input costs remain a significant challenge. This increase is near the long-run average but reflects heightened cost conditions that could squeeze margins if not managed effectively. Concurrently, the prices received index modestly increased, suggesting that firms are somewhat able to pass these costs onto consumers, but not entirely.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the survey’s future indicators, although slightly declined, still paint an optimistic picture for the next six months. The future general activity index, despite a drop, shows that a larger proportion of firms anticipate an increase in activity compared to those expecting a decrease. This optimism extends to projections for new orders and shipments, although at a moderated pace.

Interestingly, the future employment index saw an improvement, hinting at potential recovery in hiring intentions. This could be crucial in addressing the current employment declines and supporting anticipated increases in production.

Special Focus: Wages and Compensation

The survey included special questions about changes in wages and compensation. Over the past three months, 31.3% of firms reported increases in these costs, reflecting the broader inflationary pressures affecting the economy. Most firms have not adjusted their 2024 budgets for wages and compensation, indicating a wait-and-see approach in financial planning. However, a notable fraction of firms plan to increase wages more than initially planned, highlighting the competitive pressures to attract and retain talent amid a tight labor market.

Strategic Implications for Businesses

Manufacturing firms should remain vigilant of the ongoing cost pressures and labor market dynamics. Strategic planning should consider potential cost escalations and explore efficiencies in production processes. Additionally, firms must assess their workforce strategies to address the hiring challenges and plan for wage adjustments that align with market conditions and company performance.

Overall, the April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic view of the manufacturing sector. While current conditions show improvement, the challenges in employment and rising costs are critical areas that require careful management to sustain growth and competitiveness in the evolving economic landscape.

Source: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-04

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39 pips potential profit in 69 seconds on 15 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 39 pips on US Retail Sales data on 15 April 2024.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

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U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales Surge in March 2024: A Sign of Economic Resilience

In a promising turn of events for the U.S. economy, the latest figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau reveal a robust uptick in retail and food services sales for the month of March 2024. The advance estimates, adjusted for seasonal variation and other factors, paint a picture of resilience and growth despite ongoing global uncertainties.

According to the report, U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024 reached an impressive $709.6 billion, marking a 0.7 percent increase from the previous month. Even more encouraging is the year-over-year comparison, with sales up by 4.0 percent compared to March 2023. This steady growth trajectory suggests a buoyant consumer sentiment and a healthy appetite for spending.

Digging deeper into the numbers, it's evident that various sectors contributed to this positive trend. Retail trade sales, for instance, saw a notable 0.8 percent uptick from February 2024, signaling increased consumer activity across a range of goods and services. Nonstore retailers emerged as a standout performer, boasting an impressive 11.3 percent increase from the previous year. This surge in online shopping underscores the continued shift towards e-commerce platforms and highlights the importance of digital infrastructure in today's retail landscape.

Equally noteworthy is the resilience displayed by food services and drinking places, which saw a commendable 6.5 percent rise from March 2023. Despite challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic and fluctuating consumer preferences, the food and beverage industry has demonstrated remarkable adaptability and innovation, catering to evolving demands and ensuring customer satisfaction.

Moreover, the report provides insight into the broader economic trajectory, with total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period showing a 2.1 percent increase compared to the same period a year ago. This sustained growth over multiple months underscores the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and bodes well for future prospects.

It's worth noting the revised figures for the January 2024 to February 2024 percent change, which was adjusted upwards from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent. This upward revision reflects a more optimistic outlook and reinforces the narrative of steady expansion in consumer spending.

Overall, the latest data on retail and food services sales in March 2024 paints a picture of resilience and optimism in the face of challenges. As the economy continues to recover and adapt to changing dynamics, these figures serve as a testament to the resilience of businesses and the enduring spirit of consumer confidence. With prudent policies and innovative strategies, the U.S. is well-positioned to navigate the road ahead and emerge stronger than ever before.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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21 ticks potential profit in 20 seconds on 11 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 21 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 11 April 2024.

Natural gas (21 ticks)

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Understanding the Latest Trends in Natural Gas Storage: Insights from the April 11, 2024 EIA Report

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has recently released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, providing data up to April 5, 2024. This crucial update gives us insights into the state of natural gas storage across the United States, reflecting changes over the past week and comparisons with historical data. Here’s a deep dive into what these numbers mean and their potential implications for the market and consumers.

Current Storage Levels and Weekly Changes

As of April 5, 2024, the total working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 states stood at 2,283 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This marks a net increase of 24 Bcf from the previous week. Notably, the current storage levels are significantly above last year's figures at this time, which were at 1,848 Bcf, and also surpass the five-year average of 1,650 Bcf. This indicates a robust increase in gas storage, suggesting a stronger storage position relative to previous years.

Regional Analysis

The report details specific changes in various regions:

  • East: A slight decrease of 1 Bcf, totaling 362 Bcf.

  • Midwest: An increase of 2 Bcf, reaching 512 Bcf.

  • Mountain: An increase of 3 Bcf, now at 165 Bcf.

  • Pacific: Also up by 2 Bcf, totaling 229 Bcf.

  • South Central: The largest increase observed here, with 18 Bcf added, now totaling 1,014 Bcf.

Each region shows different trends, but overall, the increases are contributing to a greater national storage capacity, which could influence gas prices and energy policy.

Year-on-Year and Five-Year Comparisons

The comparison with last year and the five-year average gives us an idea of the long-term trends affecting natural gas storage:

  • The total stocks are 23.5% higher than the same time last year.

  • They are also 38.4% above the five-year average.

These significant increases could be due to various factors, including changes in production levels, shifts in energy consumption patterns, or preemptive storage in anticipation of different market conditions.

Implications for Markets and Consumers

With natural gas storage levels being well above average, this could lead to a stabilizing effect on natural gas prices, barring any sudden increases in demand or major geopolitical events. Consumers might benefit from relatively stable or possibly lower energy prices in the near term. However, energy producers might face challenges with lower prices affecting their revenue streams.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the next update scheduled for April 18, 2024, will provide further insights into the trends we're observing. Monitoring these trends is crucial for market participants and policymakers to make informed decisions.

In conclusion, the latest EIA report highlights a strong position in natural gas storage compared to previous years. This situation presents both opportunities and challenges in the energy market. As always, it will be important to keep an eye on how these trends evolve in response to economic, environmental, and political factors.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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35 pips potential profit in 18 seconds on 11 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 35 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 11 April 2024.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

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Unpacking the March 2024 Producer Price Index: A Subtle Shift in Economic Trends

In March 2024, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand demonstrated a modest increase of 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This subtle uptick follows more significant rises in previous months—0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. Notably, this marked a slight cooling in the pace of price increases faced by producers in the United States. Here’s a deeper dive into the nuances of the March 2024 PPI report and what these figures could signify for the broader economy.

Overview of March 2024 PPI Increases

Over the past year, the unadjusted final demand index has grown by 2.1 percent, the largest 12-month advance since a 2.3 percent increase recorded in April 2023. This year-on-year growth is primarily driven by a 0.3 percent rise in prices for final demand services, contrasting with a slight decline of 0.1 percent in the index for final demand goods.

Detailed Insights:

  • Services Sector: The increase in services was broad-based, with significant contributions from sectors like securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which surged by 3.1 percent. This was balanced by a notable decline in traveler accommodation services, which dropped by 3.8 percent.

  • Goods Sector: The decline in goods was led by a 1.6 percent decrease in final demand energy prices, emphasizing the volatile nature of this category. On a positive note, prices for final demand foods rose by 0.8 percent, showing some sectors still face upward pricing pressures.

Core Inflation Measures

Stripping out the often volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services, the core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) moved up by 0.2 percent in March, mirroring the general trend of modest inflation in more stable categories. This core measure has risen by 2.8 percent over the past 12 months, indicating a relatively steady inflationary environment in the core sectors of the economy.

Intermediate Demand Dynamics

The report also sheds light on intermediate demand, which tracks prices for goods, services, and construction products sold for resale, export, or as inputs to other products. In March, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand fell by 0.5 percent, largely due to a 1.5 percent drop in processed energy goods. This reflects broader declines in energy costs that could influence future final demand prices.

Conversely, prices for services for intermediate demand ticked up by 0.2 percent, supported by increases in sectors such as investment banking and metals wholesaling. These increases are important indicators of cost pressures within the service sector that could trickle down to consumer prices.

Implications for Business and Policy

For businesses, the fluctuating PPI indicates a mixed bag of cost pressures that could affect profit margins and pricing strategies. The rise in services costs, particularly in financial services, might lead to higher operational expenses, whereas the drop in goods prices, especially energy, could provide some relief.

From a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve and other policymakers will likely scrutinize these figures to assess inflationary trends and adjust monetary policy accordingly. The core PPI's steady rise suggests that underlying inflation pressures remain manageable, which could influence interest rate decisions in upcoming meetings.

Conclusion

The March 2024 PPI report highlights a complex economic landscape with divergent trends in goods and services. As we move further into 2024, businesses and policymakers must remain vigilant and adaptable to these evolving economic indicators. By understanding these trends, stakeholders can better navigate the uncertainties and opportunities that lie ahead in the dynamic U.S. economy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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38 ticks potential profit in 3 seconds on 10 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 38 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report data on 10 April 2024.

Light sweet crude oil (19 ticks)

Brent crude oil (19 ticks)

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Analyzing the Latest Trends in the U.S. Petroleum Status for Early April 2024

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending April 5, 2024, provides critical insights into the country's petroleum industry, reflecting changes in refinery operations, stock levels, imports, and pricing that signify broader economic and operational trends. This analysis deciphers the key highlights and their potential implications for the market and consumers.

Refinery Inputs and Operations

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day, a slight decline from the previous week, indicating a minor adjustment in refining activity. This corresponds with refineries operating at 88.3% of their operable capacity, a marginal increase from the week before, yet noteworthy for understanding the refining sector's response to market demand.

Production and Stock Levels

The report highlights a decrease in gasoline production, now averaging 9.4 million barrels per day, and an increase in distillate fuel production, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day. This shift suggests a nuanced balancing act by refineries to meet the diverse demands of the market, where gasoline sees a slight pullback, and distillate fuels, crucial for industrial and heating purposes, see an uptick.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories experienced a notable increase of 5.8 million barrels, suggesting a temporary oversupply or decreased demand. This adjustment brings inventories slightly below the five-year average for this time of year, indicating a relatively stable stock level amidst fluctuating market dynamics.

Imports and Product Supplied

A dip in crude oil imports to an average of 6.4 million barrels per day reflects the global interplay of supply chains affecting U.S. oil stocks. The decrease in total motor gasoline imports and a marginal rise in distillate fuel imports further underscore the shifting landscape of domestic consumption versus import reliance.

The four-week average of products supplied to the market slightly decreased, indicating a minor reduction in overall petroleum product demand compared to the same period last year. This subtle shift could signal changes in consumer behavior or broader economic trends influencing energy consumption.

Pricing Dynamics

Crude oil and petroleum product prices offer a lens into the market's supply and demand balance. West Texas Intermediate crude oil saw a price increase to $87.69 per barrel, reflecting tighter supply or increased demand conditions. Similarly, the rise in the spot prices for gasoline and heating oil in New York Harbor points to regional demand pressures or supply constraints.

The national average retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, both showing moderate changes from the previous week, paint a picture of the retail fuel market's response to upstream price movements and demand factors.

Conclusion

The early April 2024 snapshot of the U.S. petroleum status delineates a complex interplay of refinery operations, stock adjustments, imports, and price movements. These indicators not only reflect the current state of the petroleum sector but also offer insights into potential economic, environmental, and consumer trends. As the market continues to adapt to varying demand levels and supply chain challenges, stakeholders across the spectrum will be watching closely to navigate the volatile energy landscape effectively.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf

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57 pips potential profit in 46 seconds on 10 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS CPI (Consumer Price Index) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 57 pips on US BLS CPI (Consumer Price Index) data on 10 April 2024.

USDJPY (25 pips)

EURUSD (32 pips)

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March 2024 Consumer Price Index Summary

The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024 sheds light on current economic conditions, indicating both continuity and change in the inflation landscape. As consumers and analysts alike scrutinize these figures, it's crucial to unpack the nuances of the data to understand its implications for the economy, businesses, and everyday Americans.

CPI Overview for March 2024

In March 2024, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) experienced a 0.4 percent increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, mirroring the rise observed in February. Looking at the bigger picture, the all items index escalated by 3.5 percent over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment, marking a notable trend in inflationary pressures.

The primary drivers of the monthly inflation increase were the shelter and gasoline indexes, which collectively contributed to more than half of the overall rise in the index for all items. Specifically, the energy index saw a 1.1 percent uplift, while food prices edged up by 0.1 percent. Notably, the food at home index remained stagnant, but the food away from home index climbed by 0.3 percent.

Key Components and Sectoral Impacts

  • Shelter and Energy: The shelter index continued its upward trajectory, alongside a significant 1.1 percent increase in the energy index. Gasoline prices, in particular, rose by 1.7 percent, reflecting broader energy market trends.

  • Food Index: The marginal 0.1 percent rise in the food index, coupled with a stable food at home index, suggests moderate food price inflation. However, the food away from home index's 0.3 percent increase points to costlier dining out experiences.

  • Core Inflation: Excluding food and energy, the core CPI rose by 0.4 percent for the third consecutive month. This consistent growth in core inflation underscores persistent inflationary pressures beyond volatile food and energy prices.

Yearly Inflation Trends

The 12-month overview reveals a 3.5 percent rise in the all items index, accelerating from the 3.2 percent increase ending February. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed by 3.8 percent over the past year, indicating sustained inflationary pressure. Energy and food indexes rose by 2.1 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, highlighting varied inflation dynamics across sectors.

Looking Ahead

The CPI data for March 2024 illustrates ongoing inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy, with significant contributions from shelter, energy, and certain food categories. While some sectors like used cars and trucks saw price decreases, the general trend indicates that inflation remains a concern.

For consumers, this means budgeting for higher costs in housing, energy, and dining out. Businesses, particularly in the energy, food service, and insurance sectors, will need to navigate these inflationary pressures carefully, balancing cost increases with consumer affordability.

As we move forward, monitoring these trends will be crucial for policymakers, businesses, and consumers alike to make informed decisions in an evolving economic landscape. The next CPI report, scheduled for release in May 2024, will be eagerly anticipated for further insights into inflationary trends and their potential implications.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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46 pips potential profit in 132 seconds on 5 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDCAD on Canada Labour Force Survey data

According to our analysis USDCAD moved 46 pips on Canada Labour Force Survey data on 5 April 2024.

USDCAD (46 pips)

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Canada's Labour Force Survey: An Overview of March 2024

Canada's latest Labour Force Survey for March 2024 presents a mixed bag of results, reflecting the dynamic and fluctuating nature of the country's economy. Released on April 5th, 2024, the survey offers a comprehensive look at employment trends, unemployment rates, industry shifts, and regional differences across Canada. Here, we delve into the key findings and what they signify for Canadians.

Employment Rates: A Steady Scene with Minor Adjustments

The headline figure from the survey is the minimal change in employment for March 2024, with a slight decrease of 2,200 jobs, marking a -0.0% change. This stability follows a modest increase in February (+41,000) and January (+37,000), suggesting a period of relative steadiness in the job market. However, it's notable that the employment rate has seen a slight decline for the sixth consecutive month, falling by 0.1 percentage points to 61.4%.

Unemployment on the Rise

A more concerning trend is the uptick in the unemployment rate, which rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1% in March. This increase adds to a year-over-year rise of 1.0 percentage points, indicating a growing number of Canadians are finding themselves out of work. Particularly striking is the unemployment rate among youth aged 15 to 24, which increased by 1.0 percentage points in just a month to 12.6%, and by 3.1 percentage points from March 2023.

Sectoral and Demographic Disparities

The survey highlights significant differences in employment changes across various demographics and industries. Youth employment continued to decline, falling by 28,000 (-1.0%), while core-aged men saw an increase of 20,000 (+0.3%). The decline in youth employment is a concerning trend that has seen virtually no net employment growth for this group since December 2022.

Industries such as accommodation and food services, wholesale and retail trade, and professional, scientific and technical services saw employment decreases, while health care and social assistance led with an increase of 40,000 (+1.5%). These sectoral shifts reflect broader economic changes and areas of growth and contraction within the Canadian economy.

Regional Variations

The survey also sheds light on regional disparities, with employment decreasing in Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, while Ontario experienced an increase. This variation underscores the diverse economic conditions across the country and the impact of regional industries and policies on employment rates.

Looking Ahead

The March 2024 Labour Force Survey paints a picture of a Canadian economy experiencing slow movement in its labor market, with notable disparities across different sectors and regions. The rise in unemployment, particularly among the youth, poses a significant challenge, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and policies to support job creation and skill development in affected sectors and demographics.

As Canada navigates these complex labor market dynamics, the insights from the Labour Force Survey will be crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike in making informed decisions and adapting to the changing economic landscape.

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240405/dq240405a-eng.htm

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