According to our analysis EURUSD and US30 moved 6 pips and 26 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 10 November 2023.
EURUSD (6 pips)
US30 (26 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
The November 2023 Michigan Consumer Sentiment report portrays a sustained decline in consumer sentiment for the fourth consecutive month. The overall index dipped by 5.3% from October, marking subtle shifts in distinct components. While there were marginal upticks in current and expected personal finances, the long-term economic outlook notably plunged by 12%. Factors such as concerns over high interest rates and ongoing global conflicts in regions like Gaza and Ukraine contributed to this decline. The impact was most pronounced among lower-income and younger consumers, whereas the top tier of stockholders showed a substantial 10% improvement, reflecting recent strength in equity markets.
Additionally, the report emphasized a surge in inflation expectations. Both short-term and long-term projections notably increased, especially in gas prices, reaching the year's highest levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.4%, highlighting a consistent rise in recent months. Long-run inflation expectations also reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011.
In the markets, the reaction to this sentiment report was relatively measured. While the forex market saw a minor 6-pip downturn in EUR/USD, and the US30 index experienced a 26-point drop, these fluctuations were within the range of typical market movements. Such modest shifts might not signify substantial changes unless part of broader, sustained trends. Traders often analyze these fluctuations in conjunction with other indicators or news to make informed decisions, recognizing them as part of regular market dynamics. The forthcoming data release in November is anticipated to provide further insights into whether these trends will persist or potentially shift.
Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
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