We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 639 pips/ticks, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points profit out of the following 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q2 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q2 2025 (only pips), please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 31 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

Market Movers: Key U.S. Economic Reports and Their Impact (April–June 2025)

From jobs data to energy inventories and agricultural outlooks, Q2 2025 saw a series of high-impact economic reports that rippled across global markets. Traders closely tracked these releases for their potential to move currencies, equities, commodities, and crypto. Here's a rundown of the most market-moving reports between April and June 2025.

April Highlights

  • JOLTS (April 1): The labor market began Q2 on solid footing, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey moving the USD by 21 pips—a notable reaction suggesting continued sensitivity to labor data.

  • Energy Inventories: The DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports on April 3, 17, and 24 moved 27, 24, and 28 ticks respectively. The Petroleum Status Reports on April 9 and 23 posted 29 and 19 ticks, showing volatility as supply levels fluctuated during seasonal demand shifts.

  • GDP Surprise (April 30): One of the month’s biggest events, the US GDP release, jolted the S&P 500 by 21 points and Bitcoin by a whopping 305 points, reflecting strong cross-asset sensitivity to macro growth data.

Early May Surge

  • Jobless Claims (May 1): Initial claims moved the USD by 29 pips and the S&P 500 by 7 points—a sign that labor market tightness was still front and center for traders.

  • Natural Gas (May 1): The same day, gas storage data shocked the market with a 55-tick move, marking the most volatile energy reaction in Q2.

  • Employment Report (May 2): The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release proved critical again: 19 pips on the USD, 19 S&P points, and 192 points on Bitcoin. Crypto remains highly reactive to macro labor indicators.

Mid-May Momentum

  • WASDE (May 12): Agricultural markets woke up as the USDA’s report drove 56 ticks, signaling shifting expectations in global grain supply and demand.

  • CPI & PPI (May 13, 15): CPI barely moved the needle at 3 pips but still nudged the S&P 500 by 14 points. The combo of PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed on May 15 moved the USD by 17 pips and the index by 10 points—a multifaceted data dump that markets clearly priced in.

  • Oil & Gas (May 15 & 21): Natural gas data dipped to 19 ticks, while oil inventories on May 21 jumped to 42 ticks, hinting at growing concerns over crude supply.

June Closes Q2 with a Bang

  • JOLTS (June 3): This report’s impact diminished to just 10 pips, perhaps signaling a market growing numb to repeated labor strength.

  • NFP (June 6): In contrast, the June NFP was a showstopper—37 pips on the dollar, 11 points on the S&P, and major reactions in correlated assets.

  • CPI (June 11): Again modest at 3 pips, but Bitcoin jumped 222 points, underscoring crypto's outsized sensitivity to inflation trends.

  • June 12 PPI & Jobless Claims: Together they created a 41-pip swing in the greenback—signaling that inflation is not yet off the radar.

  • GDP + Jobless + Durable Goods (June 26): A potent trifecta caused a 26-pip move, reinforcing how tightly markets are tethered to macro signals.

  • USDA Acreage/Grain Stocks (June 30): The most volatile ag report of the quarter delivered a hefty 64-tick reaction, capping off a high-stakes Q2 for commodity traders.

Takeaway for Traders

Q2 2025 reinforced a familiar theme: macro matters. While individual reports varied in market impact, clusters of data—especially when combining labor, inflation, or GDP figures—produced outsized reactions.

Crypto traders should continue watching NFP and CPI closely, while energy and ag market participants can't afford to ignore inventory and USDA reports. For equity and FX traders, jobless claims and broader economic indicators remain key swing factors.

Volatility isn't going away anytime soon—stay alert, stay nimble.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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