According to our analysis EURUSD moved around 9 pips and US30 around 115 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 October 2023.

EURUSD (9 pips)

US30 (115 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

On October 6, 2023, several key economic indicators provided insights into the state of the U.S. economy and financial markets:

  1. Employment Situation: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 in September. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%. Job gains were observed in various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, government, health care, professional and technical services, and social assistance.

  2. Unemployment Rates: The unemployment rates for different demographic groups showed little change in September, with adult men at 3.8%, adult women at 3.1%, teenagers at 11.6%, Whites at 3.4%, Blacks at 5.7%, Asians at 2.8%, and Hispanics at 4.6%.

  3. Long-Term Unemployment: The number of long-term unemployed individuals (jobless for 27 weeks or more) remained relatively stable at 1.2 million, accounting for 19.1% of all unemployed persons.

  4. Labor Force Participation and Employment-Population Ratio: Both the labor force participation rate (62.8%) and the employment-population ratio (60.4%) experienced no significant changes.

  5. Part-Time Employment: Approximately 4.1 million individuals were employed part-time for economic reasons, reflecting limited changes in their employment status.

  6. Persons Not in the Labor Force: Around 5.5 million people who wanted a job but were not actively seeking one were categorized as not in the labor force.

  7. Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2% to $33.88. Over the past year, average hourly earnings rose by 4.2%.

  8. Workweek: The average workweek remained steady at 34.4 hours for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls.

  9. Revisions: Previous employment data were revised upwards, with July's nonfarm payroll employment revised from +157,000 to +236,000, and August's revised from +187,000 to +227,000. This resulted in a combined increase of 119,000 jobs.

Forecasts and Expectations:

  • The unemployment rate had been forecasted at 3.7%, but it remained at 3.8%.

  • Nonfarm payrolls were forecasted at 170,000, but they exceeded expectations with an increase of 336,000.

  • Private nonfarm payrolls were forecasted at 160,000.

  • Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) was forecasted at 0.3%, but it came in at 0.2%.

  • Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) was forecasted at 4.3%.

In summary, the U.S. labor market showed signs of resilience in September, with stronger-than-expected job gains and a steady unemployment rate. However, some indicators, such as wage growth, came in slightly below forecasts, suggesting potential challenges in achieving higher income growth for workers. The revised employment data for July and August also indicated a more robust labor market performance than previously reported.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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