We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 329 pips/ticks, US30 771 points and BTC 3908 points profit out of the following 11 events in the first quarter of 2025 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q1 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q1 2025 (only pips), please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 19 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

Q1 2025 Market Wrap-Up: Key U.S. Economic Releases and Market Reactions

The first quarter of 2025 delivered a series of impactful U.S. economic data releases, with notable volatility across major markets including forex (USD), equities (US30), and crypto (BTC). Here's a concise breakdown of the most market-moving events:

  • Job Market Data:

    • Initial Jobless Claims on January 2 moved the USD by 28 pips, kicking off the year with a moderate reaction.

    • JOLTS Reports on January 7 and February 4 showed declining market impact, with moves shrinking from 25 pips to 15 pips, and a modest US30 reaction of 26 points in February.

    • The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on January 10 had the biggest labor market impact, sparking a 35-pip USD move and a 210-point surge in the US30.

  • Inflation Data (CPI):

    • January 15 CPI data drove 25 pips, 90 points on the US30, and a notable 1018-point jump in BTC.

    • February 12 CPI repeated this market-moving trend with 23 pips, 147 US30 points, and a 1279-point BTC reaction, reinforcing inflation as a key driver for crypto and equity traders alike.

  • Consumer Sentiment:

    • The University of Michigan reports on February 7 and March 14 showed consistent market engagement. BTC and US30 responded significantly, with the March release pushing the US30 up 154 points and BTC up 592 points.

  • Agricultural and Commodity Reports:

    • The USDA WASDE and Grain Stocks release on January 10 triggered a massive 104-tick move, while the February 11 WASDE still saw solid market action at 40 ticks.

  • Retail Sales:

    • The February 14 report had a moderate impact, generating a 20-pip USD move and 280 points on BTC, suggesting strong trader attention to consumer spending data.

Overall, inflation and employment reports remained the dominant themes in Q1, with crypto markets—particularly BTC—reacting sharply to CPI data and sentiment indexes. Equities also showed sensitivity, especially to job and inflation metrics, while agricultural markets responded decisively to USDA data.

Here's a chart summarizing the market reactions across USD, US30, BTC, and commodity markets for key U.S. economic releases in Q1 2025.


Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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