According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 33 pips and US500 moved 6 points on US Jobless Claims data on 5 June 2025.

USDJPY (24 pips)

EURUSD (9 points)

US500 (6 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unemployment Claims Edge Up in Late May, 2025: Signs of a Softening Labor Market?

Published: June 5, 2025

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows a modest increase in new unemployment claims, potentially signaling slight softening in the labor market as we head into summer.

Key Highlights from the Week Ending May 31, 2025:

  • Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
    New filings for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 239,000.
    This is the highest weekly figure in recent months and above the 4-week average of 235,000, which itself ticked up by 4,500.

  • 4-Week Moving Average Trend:
    Continues to climb, now at its highest since late 2021, suggesting a potential shift in labor market conditions.

  • Insured Unemployment:
    The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell slightly to 1.9 million, a drop of 3,000 from the prior week.
    However, the 4-week moving average rose to 1,895,250 — its highest since November 2021.

  • Insured Unemployment Rate:
    Decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, both on a seasonally and unadjusted basis.

Unadjusted Insights: May 31 Snapshot

  • Initial Claims (Unadjusted):
    Dropped to 208,642, down 3,128 from the previous week.
    However, this was a smaller decline than expected, and still higher than the 196,177 claims filed during the same week last year.

  • Insured Unemployment (Unadjusted):
    Decreased by 18,524 to 1,757,031 — although this figure is still nearly 87,000 higher than the same week in 2024.

Notable State Activity

Some states saw significant week-over-week shifts in initial claims:

Increases:

  • Michigan: +3,259 (due to manufacturing layoffs)

  • Nebraska: +1,328 (also driven by manufacturing job losses)

  • California: +1,041 (no specific reason provided)

Decreases:

  • No states reported weekly declines of more than 1,000.

Among states with the highest insured unemployment rates:

  • New Jersey leads at 2.2%, followed by California and Washington at 2.1%.

Federal Program Claims

  • Federal Civilian Employees:
    538 initial claims (down 72); 6,719 continued weeks claimed (up 341)

  • Newly Discharged Veterans:
    295 initial claims (down 79); 4,486 continued weeks claimed (down 83)

Big Picture Takeaway

While these fluctuations are not dramatic, the steady rise in the 4-week moving averages for both initial and continued claims may be an early signal of a cooling labor market. In particular, manufacturing layoffs in several key states are contributing to localized increases in claims.

That said, the insured unemployment rate remains relatively low at 1.2%, suggesting overall employment levels are still strong by historical standards.

Keep an Eye On...

  • Future reports to see whether this increase is temporary or becomes a trend

  • Sector-specific layoff patterns — particularly in manufacturing

  • State-level policy shifts or economic factors driving regional changes in claims

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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