According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 29 May 2025.
USDJPY (17 pips)
EURUSD (11 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise to Highest Level Since 2021
Posted on: May 29, 2025
The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) report from the U.S. Department of Labor reveals a notable uptick in jobless claims, signaling potential shifts in the U.S. labor market. For the week ending May 24, 2025, initial claims for seasonally adjusted unemployment benefits rose to 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 226,000. This marks the highest level of insured unemployment since November 2021.
Initial Claims at a Glance
Initial claims are often seen as a leading indicator of labor market health. The four-week moving average—a more stable measure—dropped slightly by 250 to 230,750, showing continued volatility but no dramatic trend yet.
Unadjusted data also reflected a jump: 212,506 actual claims were filed, up 10,742 (or 5.3%) from the previous week. This was in contrast to expectations of a modest decline, suggesting labor market softening in some states.
Rising Insured Unemployment
The insured unemployment rate, representing continued claims as a percentage of the covered workforce, climbed to 1.3%—up from 1.2% the week before. The total number of people receiving UI benefits rose to 1,919,000, up 26,000 from the prior week. This is the highest level of insured unemployment in over three years.
The four-week average for insured unemployment now stands at 1,890,250, the highest since November 2021. While not alarming in isolation, this metric tends to signal pressure points in the labor market when it trends upward.
Which States Are Leading the Changes?
Some states experienced sharper changes than others:
Increases in initial claims:
Illinois (+1,162): Attributed to layoffs in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail.
Missouri (+447) and Louisiana (+383) also saw jumps.
Decreases in claims:
Virginia (-1,277) and Michigan (-1,192): Reported fewer layoffs, particularly in manufacturing.
Highest insured unemployment rates:
New Jersey (2.2%)
California and Washington (2.1%)
Rhode Island (1.9%)
District of Columbia and Massachusetts (1.8%)
Federal and Veteran Claims
Federal claims also rose slightly:
Federal civilian employees: 610 initial claims (+15)
Newly discharged veterans: 374 initial claims (+4)
Continued claims for these groups totaled:
6,378 (federal employees)
4,569 (veterans)
Total Benefits Claimed
Across all UI programs, 1,808,372 continued claims were filed for the week ending May 10, up by 492 from the prior week. This includes regular state benefits, federal programs, and special extensions.
Bottom Line: What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?
While the overall UI claims data remain within historical norms, the trend over recent weeks—particularly the rise in insured unemployment—warrants attention. Increases in claims across key sectors like manufacturing and retail may reflect broader economic cooling or transitional churn in employment.
Labor market watchers and policymakers will be closely monitoring next week’s data to determine whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of sustained labor market softening.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
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