19 pips potential profit in 136 seconds on 24 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 19 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 July 2025.

USDJPY (14 pips)

EURUSD (5 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Jobless Claims Dip Slightly Amid Signs of Steady Labor Market

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report, released today by the U.S. Department of Labor, shows a modest decline in initial jobless claims, signaling a steady—if slightly cooling—labor market.

Key Numbers: Week Ending July 19, 2025

• Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
  217,000 — down 4,000 from the prior week’s 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average:
  224,500 — a decrease of 5,000 from 229,500

• Insured Unemployment Rate (SA):
  1.3% — unchanged from the previous week

• Insured Unemployment Total (SA):
  1,955,000 — up by 4,000

Despite the small uptick in continued claims, the four-week moving average for insured unemployment also ticked slightly down, suggesting overall labor market resilience.

Unadjusted Data Highlights

• Initial Claims (NSA):
  215,792 — a 17.4% drop from the prior week, larger than expected

• Year-over-Year Comparison:
  Down from 225,839 during the same week last year

• Unadjusted Insured Unemployment:
  2,016,061 — up 4,568 week-over-week

• Continued Weeks Claimed Across All Programs:
  2,039,425 — an increase of 113,926 from the prior week

These figures include regular state programs, federal employees, veterans, and other claimants such as those under Workshare arrangements.

Where Claims Rose — and Why

States with Largest Increases in Initial Claims (Week Ending July 12):

State	Change	Layoff Sectors / Comments
New York	+10,001	Transportation, warehousing, public administration, construction
Nevada	+4,397	No comment
Texas	+2,984	Wholesale trade, health care, administrative & waste services
Georgia	+2,793	Manufacturing, health care, administrative & waste services, warehousing
Pennsylvania	+1,942	Admin & waste services, transportation, food services, professional/technical
Missouri	+1,279	Manufacturing, administrative & waste services, health care
California	+1,261	No comment
Arizona	+1,193	No comment
Florida	+1,147	Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade

These gains reflect layoffs across multiple sectors, notably in public-facing and logistics-heavy industries.

Where Claims Fell

Largest Decreases in Initial Claims:

State	Change	Comment
Michigan	-4,867	Fewer layoffs in manufacturing and management sectors
New Jersey	-3,206	No comment
Tennessee	-2,574	No comment
Kentucky	-1,579	No comment
Iowa	-1,385	No comment

Several states, particularly those with manufacturing-heavy economies, saw meaningful declines, potentially indicating production rebounds or stabilized operations.

Federal and Veteran Claims

• Federal Employees (Initial Claims): 789 — up by 193

• Veterans (Initial Claims): 302 — down by 101

• Continued Weeks Claimed (Federal Employees): 7,226 — up by 191

• Veterans: 4,479 — up by 167

While small in scale, these shifts highlight employment volatility in specific federal and military-related workforce segments.

States With Highest Insured Unemployment Rates (NSA)

State	Insured Unemployment Rate
New Jersey	2.8%
Rhode Island	2.7%
Puerto Rico	2.6%
Minnesota	2.4%
California	2.2%
Massachusetts	2.1%
Washington	2.1%
District of Columbia	2.0%
Oregon	1.9%
Pennsylvania	1.9%

These regions may face more sustained labor market pressure, especially in urban and service-heavy economies.

Takeaway

The labor market remains relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The decrease in initial claims and an unchanged insured unemployment rate suggest there is no immediate cause for concern. However, sector-specific layoffs and regional disparities point to underlying structural shifts worth monitoring.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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16 pips, US500 3 points potential profit in 19 seconds on 16 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 16 July 2025.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

US500 (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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June 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) Report: Inflation Cools as Prices Hold Steady

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a cooling trend in wholesale inflation for June 2025. Headline PPI — which tracks the average changes in prices received by domestic producers — remained flat (0.0%) in June, signaling a pause in upward pricing pressure following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.3% decrease in April.

Key Highlights:

Final Demand Overview

• Overall PPI (Final Demand): 0.0% in June (seasonally adjusted)

• 12-month change (unadjusted): +2.3%

• Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade): 0.0% in June, +2.5% year-over-year

The flat monthly reading reflects a balance between rising goods prices and falling service prices. While final demand goods rose 0.3%, final demand services slipped by 0.1%.

Goods: Energy Lifts Prices

• Final demand goods posted their largest monthly rise since February, primarily due to a 0.3% increase in goods excluding food and energy.

• Energy prices rose 0.6%, with gasoline and residential electric power both contributing to the gains.

• Food prices rose 0.2%, though this was partially offset by a dramatic 21.8% drop in chicken egg prices.

Notable price gains:

• Communication equipment: +0.8%

• Gasoline

• Tree nuts and prepared poultry

Notable price declines:

• Chicken eggs: -21.8%

• Thermoplastic resins

• Natural gas liquids

Services: Softening Demand

• Final demand services dropped 0.1%, mainly driven by declines in services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing.

• Travel-related services showed weakness:

  • Traveler accommodations: -4.1%

  • Airline passenger services: Down

• Financial services saw mixed trends:

  • Portfolio management: +2.2%

  • Deposit services (partial): Down

Intermediate Demand: Mixed Trends

• Processed goods: +0.1% (third monthly gain)

• Unprocessed goods: +0.7% (largest increase since January)

• Services: -0.1%

Key intermediate commodity trends:

• Natural gas to utilities: +12.1%

• Slaughter cattle & poultry: Increased

• Ungraded chicken eggs: -25.0%

• Deposit services (partial): -5.4%

Stage-by-Stage Price Flows

• Stage 4 Intermediate Demand: Unchanged (goods +0.2%, services -0.1%)

• Stage 3: -0.2% (driven by falling raw material prices)

• Stage 2: +0.2% (goods +0.6%, services -0.2%)

• Stage 1: -0.1% (services prices falling more than goods rose)

Looking Ahead: Index Changes

Starting with the July 2025 release (due August 14), BLS will:

• Discontinue 5 FD-ID indexes

• Cease publication of ~350 industry and commodity PPIs

• Update sampling for 11 industries, including:

  • Tobacco manufacturing

  • Railroad rolling stock

  • Nursing care facilities

  • Industrial sand mining

These changes reflect an effort to keep the PPI current with shifts in industry structure, production methods, and product offerings.

Conclusion

The June 2025 PPI report points to stable producer prices, with inflationary pressures easing in the service sector and moderate gains in goods pricing. The flat reading supports the view that upstream inflation is under control, even as certain volatile categories (like energy and food) continue to swing.

As the Federal Reserve monitors these figures closely, this data may reinforce expectations for a pause in rate hikes, keeping the focus on sustaining disinflation while supporting economic stability.

Next PPI Release: August 14, 2025

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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13 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 10 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 13 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 10 July 2025.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Claims Drop Slightly, but Insured Unemployment Hits Highest Level Since 2021

The U.S. labor market saw modest improvement last week, as new unemployment claims dipped slightly. However, underlying data shows signs of increased strain in the system, with insured unemployment rising to levels not seen since late 2021.

Initial Claims Decline, But Remain Elevated

For the week ending July 5, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims dropped to 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 232,000. The 4-week moving average—a more stable measure—fell to 235,500, its lowest level in over a month.

However, the unadjusted figures tell a different story. Actual initial claims filed totaled 240,802, up 10,004 from the previous week. This increase was lower than expected, suggesting less seasonal volatility than anticipated.

Insured Unemployment Rises to Highest Since 2021

While fewer people filed for new claims, ongoing unemployment (those continuing to receive benefits) rose to its highest point in nearly four years:

• 1,965,000 individuals were receiving insured unemployment benefits for the week ending June 28, up 10,000 from the week before.

• This marks the highest level since November 13, 2021.

• The 4-week moving average also climbed to 1,955,250, the highest since November 2021.

Despite the rise, the insured unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) held steady at 1.3%, while the unadjusted rate ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%.

State-Level Trends: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?

Some states saw notable shifts in unemployment activity:

Largest Increases in Initial Claims:

• New Jersey: +4,684 (due to layoffs in education and public administration)

• New York: +3,323 (health care, transportation, hospitality)

• Illinois: +1,840 (manufacturing, retail, logistics)

Largest Decreases:

• Pennsylvania: -2,910

• California: -2,822

• Connecticut: -2,407
  These decreases were primarily attributed to fewer layoffs in industries like transportation, accommodations, and health care.

Highest Insured Unemployment Rates:

• Puerto Rico: 2.4%

• Minnesota & New Jersey: 2.3%

• California & Rhode Island: 2.2%

Federal Program Activity

While most UI activity is state-based, federal claims also shifted slightly:

• Federal civilian initial claims: 438 (down 15)

• Veteran initial claims: 388 (up 37)

• Continued weeks claimed by federal employees and veterans also changed modestly, but remained below pre-pandemic levels.

What Does This Mean?

The data paints a mixed picture: fewer people are entering unemployment, but more are staying on benefits longer—possibly signaling a slower reabsorption into the workforce.

While no states were triggered onto the Extended Benefits (EB) program this week, the sustained rise in continued claims suggests some softening in the labor market.

Bottom Line:
Initial jobless claims are steady, but the rise in ongoing unemployment benefits is worth watching. As seasonal adjustments settle and summer transitions into fall, the labor market may face new pressures.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

---

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26 pips potential profit in 48 seconds on 26 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 26 pips on US Jobless Claims, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Durable Goods Orders data on 26 June 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (7 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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A Mixed Economic Picture: Weekly Jobless Claims Drop, Durable Goods Surge, but GDP Contracts

This week brought a flurry of economic data from key U.S. government agencies, painting a mixed picture of the American economy as it navigates a period of turbulence. From a surprise decline in jobless claims to a dramatic rebound in durable goods orders and a downward revision in GDP, here’s what you need to know.

Jobless Claims Dip Amid Growing Insured Unemployment

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, a decrease of 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average also declined slightly to 245,000, reflecting modest labor market stability.

However, the story takes a turn when we look at continued claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving benefits. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment climbed to 1.974 million in the week ending June 14—the highest level since November 2021. The insured unemployment rate remains at 1.3%, unchanged but notably elevated.

Notably, unadjusted data showed insured unemployment rising by 58,030 to over 1.87 million, with states like California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania reporting the largest volumes of insured unemployed individuals. Meanwhile, layoffs in education, transportation, and hospitality sectors were major contributors to localized surges in initial claims, especially in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Oregon.

Durable Goods Orders Roar Back in May

The Census Bureau delivered a dose of optimism: new orders for manufactured durable goods surged by a staggering 16.4% in May, reaching $343.6 billion. This strong rebound follows a sharp 6.6% decline in April, suggesting a volatile but recovering manufacturing sector.

The increase was led almost entirely by transportation equipment, which jumped 48.3% to $145.4 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders still managed a respectable 0.5% gain, and excluding defense, orders rose 15.5%, underscoring broad-based demand in the private sector.

GDP Revised Down: Economic Contraction in Q1

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised first-quarter real GDP growth down to -0.5%, confirming that the U.S. economy contracted after a 2.4% increase in the previous quarter. This marks a notable deceleration, attributed primarily to:

• Increased imports (which subtract from GDP),

• Weaker government spending, and

• Slower consumer spending, particularly in services like recreation and transportation.

Revised data showed that real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.9%, down from earlier estimates, signaling waning consumer demand. Corporate profits also fell by $90.6 billion, despite being revised upward by $27.5 billion from earlier estimates.

What It All Means

The juxtaposition of falling jobless claims and surging durable goods orders with a contracting GDP highlights the complex and uneven state of the U.S. economy:

• The labor market remains resilient on the surface, but underlying weakness is showing up in rising continued claims.

• Manufacturing appears to be regaining momentum, driven largely by transportation.

• The overall economy contracted, signaling that business activity and consumer strength are faltering.

As the Federal Reserve weighs inflation data against slowing growth, policymakers and market participants alike will need to watch these signals closely in the weeks ahead.

Key Data at a Glance:

Indicator	Latest Value	Notes
Initial Jobless Claims	236,000	Down 10,000 from previous week
4-Week Avg. Jobless Claims	245,000	Down 750 from previous week
Insured Unemployment	1.974 million	Highest since November 2021
Durable Goods Orders	+16.4%	$343.6 billion in May
Durable Goods (ex-transportation)	+0.5%	Broader indicator of core demand
Real GDP (Q1 2025)	-0.5%	Downward revision from -0.2%
Corporate Profits	-$90.6 billion	Revised up $27.5 billion
PCE Price Index	+3.7%	Inflation remains elevated
Real GDI	+0.2%	Revised up from -0.2%

Bottom Line: The economy is sending mixed signals. While manufacturing shows vigor and layoffs have slowed, continued joblessness is climbing and GDP is in the red. We may be in for a bumpy ride as the second half of 2025 unfolds.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html, https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits

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41 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 12 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 41 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 12 June 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (21 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Jobless Claims Steady, But Trends Show Rising Insured Unemployment. Producer Prices Edge Up: What It Means for the U.S. Economy

Published: June 12, 2025

The latest economic data paints a picture of a U.S. economy that’s holding steady—but showing some signs of strain beneath the surface. Two major releases today from the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provide insight into both the labor market and inflation trends.

Unemployment Claims Show Stability in New Layoffs, But Pressure is Mounting

Initial jobless claims remained flat at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, 2025 (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised figure. However, the 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023—an early signal that labor market softening may be gaining momentum.

Key takeaways:

• Continued claims (insured unemployment) climbed to 1.96 million, up by 54,000, the highest level since November 2021.

• The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%, from 1.2% the previous week.

• Unadjusted initial claims rose 17.1% to 244,752, reflecting real increases in layoffs.

Notable State-Level Trends:

• Increases: Kentucky (+3,967, due to manufacturing layoffs), Minnesota (+2,364, education sector), and Tennessee (+1,764).

• Decreases: Michigan (-3,783), Florida (-1,456), and Massachusetts (-1,585) saw fewer layoffs across multiple sectors.

These trends suggest that while broad-based layoffs remain limited, certain industries—particularly manufacturing and education—are facing headwinds.

Producer Prices Inch Up: Inflation Pressures Persist in Select Areas

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following declines in April (-0.2%) and March (-0.1%). Over the past 12 months, the index has increased 2.6%, signaling moderate but persistent inflationary pressure on wholesale goods and services.

Breakdown of May PPI Data:

• Final Demand Goods: Rose 0.2%, driven by increases in tobacco products, processed poultry, and roasted coffee.

• Final Demand Services: Up 0.1%, thanks to higher margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, though airline passenger services dropped 1.1%.

• Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services): Also increased 0.1%, with a 12-month increase of 2.7%.

Intermediate Demand Trends:

• Processed goods for intermediate demand increased 0.1%, but unprocessed goods dropped 1.6%, driven by an 18.7% plunge in natural gas prices.

• Prices for services for intermediate demand also rose slightly, lifted by increases in metals and minerals wholesaling and property management fees.

Economic Interpretation

Together, these two reports reflect a labor market with pockets of weakness and a producer-side inflation landscape that is not retreating quickly. While jobless claims aren’t yet surging, rising continued claims hint at a cooling labor market—potentially making it harder for displaced workers to quickly find new jobs.

At the same time, the small rise in producer prices—particularly in core goods and services—could keep inflation concerns alive at the Federal Reserve, which has paused rate hikes but continues to watch price dynamics closely.

What to Watch Going Forward

• Will continued unemployment claims persist above 1.9 million?

• How will consumer inflation respond to rising wholesale prices?

• Will industries like manufacturing and education see further layoffs?

The June data provides a snapshot of an economy in delicate balance—neither overheating nor in clear decline. As the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves and policymakers monitor both job and price data, the coming months will be pivotal for understanding the full trajectory of the U.S. recovery.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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3 pips and BTC 222 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 11 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and BTC on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 3 pips and BTC moved 222 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 June 2025.

USDJPY (1 pip)

EURUSD (2 pips)

BTC (222 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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May 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Holds Steady, Energy Prices Drag Down Headline Numbers

June 12, 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2025, and the data shows a continued cooling in inflation, with a slight 0.1% increase in consumer prices on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a slowdown from April’s 0.2% increase and offers further evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating—albeit unevenly across categories.

Headline Figures at a Glance

• Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted): +0.1% in May

• 12-month CPI (unadjusted): +2.4%

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.1% for the month; +2.8% year-over-year

• Energy index: -1.0% for the month; -3.5% year-over-year

• Food index: +0.3% for the month; +2.9% year-over-year

What’s Driving the Numbers?

Shelter Continues to Lead

Shelter prices rose 0.3% in May, maintaining a steady upward climb that has been a consistent inflation driver over the past year. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up 3.9%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall price increase.

Food Prices Edge Up

Food prices increased 0.3% in May, reversing April’s slight decline. The increase was spread across both food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%). Notably:

• Cereals and bakery products rose 1.1%

• Egg prices dropped 2.7%, though they’re still up 41.5% year-over-year

• Fruits and vegetables nudged up 0.3%, but are down 0.5% over the year

Energy Prices Plunge

Energy was the biggest drag on the overall index. The energy index dropped 1.0%, led by a 2.6% decline in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months:

• Gasoline is down 12.0%

• Fuel oil is down 8.6%

• Electricity, however, is up 4.5%

• Natural gas soared 15.3%

Core Services Show Mild Growth

Excluding food and energy, prices rose only 0.1% in May. Increases were noted in:

• Medical care services (+0.2%)

• Motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%)

• Education (+0.3%)

At the same time, several consumer items saw declines, including:

• Used cars and trucks (-0.5%)

• New vehicles (-0.3%)

• Apparel (-0.4%)

• Airline fares (-2.7%)

What Does This Mean?

The May CPI report underscores a key theme: inflation is slowing but not uniformly. Core inflation remains sticky, especially in services like shelter and insurance, while energy and some goods prices continue to drop, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room as it weighs future interest rate decisions.

A 2.4% annual inflation rate is close to the Fed’s 2% target, but the 2.8% core inflation figure suggests more progress is needed before declaring full victory over inflation.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead, two major changes are coming:

• Rebasing of CPI series starting in July 2025 will align selected indexes to a new reference base of December 2024 = 100.

• Changes to wireless services CPI methodology beginning with July data will use alternative data sources and methods to reflect real-time pricing trends more accurately.

The June CPI report is scheduled for release on July 15, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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33 pips and US500 6 points potential profit in 24 seconds on 5 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 33 pips and US500 moved 6 points on US Jobless Claims data on 5 June 2025.

USDJPY (24 pips)

EURUSD (9 points)

US500 (6 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Claims Edge Up in Late May, 2025: Signs of a Softening Labor Market?

Published: June 5, 2025

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows a modest increase in new unemployment claims, potentially signaling slight softening in the labor market as we head into summer.

Key Highlights from the Week Ending May 31, 2025:

• Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
  New filings for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 239,000.
  This is the highest weekly figure in recent months and above the 4-week average of 235,000, which itself ticked up by 4,500.

• 4-Week Moving Average Trend:
  Continues to climb, now at its highest since late 2021, suggesting a potential shift in labor market conditions.

• Insured Unemployment:
  The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell slightly to 1.9 million, a drop of 3,000 from the prior week.
  However, the 4-week moving average rose to 1,895,250 — its highest since November 2021.

• Insured Unemployment Rate:
  Decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, both on a seasonally and unadjusted basis.

Unadjusted Insights: May 31 Snapshot

• Initial Claims (Unadjusted):
  Dropped to 208,642, down 3,128 from the previous week.
  However, this was a smaller decline than expected, and still higher than the 196,177 claims filed during the same week last year.

• Insured Unemployment (Unadjusted):
  Decreased by 18,524 to 1,757,031 — although this figure is still nearly 87,000 higher than the same week in 2024.

Notable State Activity

Some states saw significant week-over-week shifts in initial claims:

Increases:

• Michigan: +3,259 (due to manufacturing layoffs)

• Nebraska: +1,328 (also driven by manufacturing job losses)

• California: +1,041 (no specific reason provided)

Decreases:

• No states reported weekly declines of more than 1,000.

Among states with the highest insured unemployment rates:

• New Jersey leads at 2.2%, followed by California and Washington at 2.1%.

Federal Program Claims

• Federal Civilian Employees:
  538 initial claims (down 72); 6,719 continued weeks claimed (up 341)

• Newly Discharged Veterans:
  295 initial claims (down 79); 4,486 continued weeks claimed (down 83)

Big Picture Takeaway

While these fluctuations are not dramatic, the steady rise in the 4-week moving averages for both initial and continued claims may be an early signal of a cooling labor market. In particular, manufacturing layoffs in several key states are contributing to localized increases in claims.

That said, the insured unemployment rate remains relatively low at 1.2%, suggesting overall employment levels are still strong by historical standards.

Keep an Eye On...

• Future reports to see whether this increase is temporary or becomes a trend

• Sector-specific layoff patterns — particularly in manufacturing

• State-level policy shifts or economic factors driving regional changes in claims

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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28 pips potential profit in 18 seconds on 29 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 29 May 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (11 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise to Highest Level Since 2021

Posted on: May 29, 2025

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) report from the U.S. Department of Labor reveals a notable uptick in jobless claims, signaling potential shifts in the U.S. labor market. For the week ending May 24, 2025, initial claims for seasonally adjusted unemployment benefits rose to 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 226,000. This marks the highest level of insured unemployment since November 2021.

Initial Claims at a Glance

Initial claims are often seen as a leading indicator of labor market health. The four-week moving average—a more stable measure—dropped slightly by 250 to 230,750, showing continued volatility but no dramatic trend yet.

Unadjusted data also reflected a jump: 212,506 actual claims were filed, up 10,742 (or 5.3%) from the previous week. This was in contrast to expectations of a modest decline, suggesting labor market softening in some states.

Rising Insured Unemployment

The insured unemployment rate, representing continued claims as a percentage of the covered workforce, climbed to 1.3%—up from 1.2% the week before. The total number of people receiving UI benefits rose to 1,919,000, up 26,000 from the prior week. This is the highest level of insured unemployment in over three years.

The four-week average for insured unemployment now stands at 1,890,250, the highest since November 2021. While not alarming in isolation, this metric tends to signal pressure points in the labor market when it trends upward.

Which States Are Leading the Changes?

Some states experienced sharper changes than others:

Increases in initial claims:

• Illinois (+1,162): Attributed to layoffs in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail.

• Missouri (+447) and Louisiana (+383) also saw jumps.

Decreases in claims:

• Virginia (-1,277) and Michigan (-1,192): Reported fewer layoffs, particularly in manufacturing.

Highest insured unemployment rates:

• New Jersey (2.2%)

• California and Washington (2.1%)

• Rhode Island (1.9%)

• District of Columbia and Massachusetts (1.8%)

Federal and Veteran Claims

Federal claims also rose slightly:

• Federal civilian employees: 610 initial claims (+15)

• Newly discharged veterans: 374 initial claims (+4)

Continued claims for these groups totaled:

• 6,378 (federal employees)

• 4,569 (veterans)

Total Benefits Claimed

Across all UI programs, 1,808,372 continued claims were filed for the week ending May 10, up by 492 from the prior week. This includes regular state benefits, federal programs, and special extensions.

Bottom Line: What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?

While the overall UI claims data remain within historical norms, the trend over recent weeks—particularly the rise in insured unemployment—warrants attention. Increases in claims across key sectors like manufacturing and retail may reflect broader economic cooling or transitional churn in employment.

Labor market watchers and policymakers will be closely monitoring next week’s data to determine whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of sustained labor market softening.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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Inflation Cools While Consumers Keep Spending: A Look at April 2025’s Economic Pulse

May 16, 2025 | By Economic Insights Blog Team

The economic landscape this spring reveals a nuanced picture: while inflation pressures at the production level are softening, consumer demand remains resilient. Let’s break down the key takeaways from the latest government data on producer prices, retail sales, unemployment claims, and manufacturing activity.

Producer Price Index (PPI): April Brings a Rare Drop

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.5% in April, a sharp contrast to March’s flat reading. This is the largest drop since October 2023.

• Services led the decline, dropping 0.7%, primarily due to falling trade margins — notably in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which saw a steep 6.1% fall.

• Final demand goods prices were flat overall. However:

  • Core goods (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4%.

  • Food prices dropped 1.0%, while energy prices dipped 0.4%.

  • Chicken eggs saw a dramatic 39.4% plunge.

12-month change: Final demand prices are still up 2.4% annually, suggesting inflation is moderating but not gone. Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade) rose 2.9% year-over-year.

Retail Sales: Consumers Show Modest Growth

The Census Bureau reports that retail and food services sales in April grew by 0.1%, following an upward revision to 1.7% growth in March. While modest, this marks 5.2% year-over-year growth — a sign that consumers are still opening their wallets.

• Retail trade edged down 0.1%, but:

  • Motor vehicle & parts dealers surged 9.4% over last year.

  • Food services and drinking places rose 7.8% year-over-year, showing strength in discretionary spending.

Unemployment Claims: Steady, but Slight Uptick in Trend

Unemployment insurance claims held steady:

• Initial claims: 229,000 (unchanged from prior week).

• 4-week moving average: 230,500 (slight rise).

• Insured unemployment rate: 1.2% — unchanged, signaling labor market stability.

Notably:

• Michigan saw a spike in initial claims (+6,869), mostly from manufacturing layoffs.

• New York saw a large drop (-15,228), thanks to fewer layoffs across education, transport, food services, and government.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: Weak But Hopeful

The Philadelphia Fed’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows that current activity remains weak, but optimism is rising:

• General activity index: Improved to -4.0 from -26.4, still negative but recovering.

• New orders jumped into positive territory at 7.5, while shipments dropped further to -13.0.

• Employment index rose significantly to 16.5, and workweek hours ticked up.

• Price pressures remain strong: Prices paid surged to 59.8, and prices received rose to 43.6 — both the highest since June 2022.

Future outlook? Brightening:

• Future general activity index spiked to 47.2, with new orders and shipments also showing strong expected growth.

• Businesses now expect 3.8% inflation for consumers and are preparing for higher compensation costs and competitive price increases in the near term.

What It All Means

The April data gives mixed but mostly encouraging signals:

• Disinflation is real at the producer level, particularly in services and food.

• Consumers are still spending, albeit more cautiously than earlier in the year.

• Labor markets are steady, even amid isolated layoffs.

• Manufacturers are hopeful, though current conditions remain sluggish.

Bottom Line: The U.S. economy in April 2025 is treading a fine line — inflation is cooling without crushing consumer demand or jobs. But manufacturers and retailers are watching input costs and pricing power carefully. The months ahead will test whether this delicate balance holds.

Next Key Releases to Watch:

• May PPI: June 12

• May Jobs Report: June 6

• FOMC Meeting: June 18–19

Stay tuned for deeper dives and analysis right here at Economic Insights.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm, https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/MBOS/2025/bos0525.pdf

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April 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Slows, Shelter and Energy Drive Modest Gains

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2025, offering a mixed picture of inflation trends across the economy. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.2% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after a slight decline in March. Year-over-year, prices are up 2.3% before seasonal adjustment, marking the smallest annual increase since February 2021.

Key Highlights:

• Overall Inflation: +0.2% month-over-month in April; +2.3% year-over-year.

• Core Inflation (excluding food and energy): +0.2% in April; +2.8% over the past 12 months.

• Food Prices: Declined by 0.1% in April, driven by a sharp 0.4% drop in the food at home index.

• Energy Prices: Rose 0.7% in April but are still down 3.7% compared to a year ago.

Shelter Continues to Lead

The shelter index increased by 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the overall rise in CPI. On an annual basis, shelter costs have risen 4.0%, making it a significant contributor to persistent core inflation. Rents and owners' equivalent rent both increased 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in April.

Energy Prices Rebound Slightly

While energy prices rose in April, the rebound was modest. Natural gas saw a notable 3.7% increase, and electricity rose 0.8%. However, gasoline prices dipped slightly by 0.1% (though they rose 2.9% before seasonal adjustment). Over the last 12 months, gasoline prices have dropped 11.8%, and fuel oil is down 9.6%.

Food Prices Show Mixed Trends

Food at home prices dropped 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since September 2020. The sharpest decline was seen in eggs, down 12.7% in April. Most major grocery categories posted declines, while nonalcoholic beverages were up 0.7%. In contrast, the food away from home index rose 0.4%, driven by increases in full-service (+0.6%) and limited-service meals (+0.3%).

Over the past year, food prices have risen 2.8%, with food away from home up 3.9% and food at home up 2.0%. Notably, egg prices have surged 49.3% year-over-year despite the April drop.

Core Categories Show Mixed Movement

Beyond food and energy, prices for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0%, and motor vehicle insurance rose 0.6%. Medical care rose 0.5%, with increases in hospital services (+0.6%) and prescription drugs (+0.4%).

Some categories saw declines, including airline fares (-2.8%), used cars and trucks (-0.5%), communication, and apparel (-0.2%). New vehicle prices remained unchanged.

A Shift in Methodology

April 2025 also marked a methodological update for the CPI. The BLS has transitioned to using transaction data purchased from a vendor to calculate the leased cars and trucks index, aiming to improve accuracy.

Looking Ahead

The next CPI release, covering May 2025, is scheduled for Wednesday, June 11, 2025. It will offer further insights into whether inflation continues to moderate and how evolving economic conditions impact consumer prices.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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