64 pips and US500 14 points potential profit in 58 seconds on 11 September 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 64 pips and US500 moved 14 points on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data on 11 September 2025.

USDJPY (39 pips)

EURUSD (25 points)

US500 (14 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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US Economy Watch: Claims Jump to 263K, CPI Re-Accelerates to 2.9% YoY

Date: September 11, 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET releases)
Sources: U.S. Department of Labor (weekly jobless claims) & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI)

1) Labor market: initial claims pop to a 4-year high

• Initial jobless claims (SA): 263,000 for the week ending Sept. 6, up 27,000 from the prior week’s revised 236,000.

  • This is the highest level since Oct. 23, 2021 (268,000).

• 4-week moving average: 240,500 (+9,750), signaling a clear uptrend beyond weekly noise.

• Continuing claims (SA): 1.939 million for the week ending Aug. 30, unchanged; insured unemployment rate steady at 1.3%.

Unadjusted detail (signals beneath the seasonal factors):

• Initial claims (NSA): 204,581, up 7,869 week over week. Seasonal factors had expected a decrease, so the upside surprised.

• Continuing claims (NSA): 1,814,469, down 77,729 from the prior week.

State color:

• Biggest weekly increases in initial claims (NSA) for the week ending Aug. 30: Tennessee (+2,870; manufacturing layoffs), Connecticut (+2,270), New York (+1,683; transportation/warehousing, construction, arts & recreation), Illinois (+1,331; manufacturing, wholesale, retail, construction).

• Biggest decline: Kentucky (-2,833; manufacturing layoffs).

• Highest insured unemployment rates (week ending Aug. 23): New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.1%); California, Connecticut, Minnesota, Puerto Rico (2.0%).

How to read it:
The spike to 263K breaks the prior 220–240K range and lifts the trend (4-week avg 240.5K). Continuing claims are flat, so we’re not yet seeing broad, persistent job loss, but leading indicators are flashing cooling momentum.

2) Inflation: August CPI firmed, led by shelter and energy

• Headline CPI (SA): +0.4% m/m in August (vs. +0.2% in July).
  Year-over-year: +2.9%, up from 2.7%.

• Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +0.3% m/m (same as July); +3.1% YoY.

• Key drivers (m/m):

  • Shelter: +0.4% (largest contributor).

  • Food: +0.5%; food at home +0.6% (broad-based, with fruits & vegetables +1.6%; beef +2.7%).

  • Energy: +0.7% with gasoline +1.9%.

  • Mixed core components: airline fares +5.9%, used vehicles +1.0%, new vehicles +0.3%; medical care -0.2%.

12-month lens:

• Headline: 2.9%; Core: 3.1%.

• Food: +3.2% YoY; Energy: +0.2% YoY with a split—gasoline -6.6% vs. electricity +6.2% and natural gas +13.8%.

• Shelter: +3.6% YoY (still sticky).

What it means:
Inflation progress stalled modestly in August: headline ticked up and core stayed firm at 0.3% m/m. The stickiness in shelter plus rebounds in travel/vehicles kept disinflation from accelerating.

3) The combined picture: cooling jobs momentum + sticky core

• A higher claims print alongside firmer CPI complicates the near-term policy read: labor is loosening at the margin, but price pressures—particularly in shelter and select services—remain not-quite-tame.

• Markets and policymakers will watch whether claims stay above ~250K and whether core CPI can downshift below 0.2–0.25% m/m in coming months.

4) Fast facts & charts (text version)

• Initial claims: 263K (highest since Oct. 2021)

• 4-wk avg: 240.5K

• Continuing claims (SA): 1.939M; IUR: 1.3%

• CPI (Aug): +0.4% m/m, 2.9% YoY

• Core CPI: +0.3% m/m, 3.1% YoY

• Big movers: Shelter +0.4% m/m; Food at home +0.6%; Gasoline +1.9%; Airline fares +5.9%

• State hotspot: TN manufacturing layoffs; CT, NY, IL saw sizable increases in new claims

5) What to watch next

• Next CPI: Oct. 15, 2025 (Wed), 8:30 a.m. ET (September data)

• Weekly claims: Every Thursday, 8:30 a.m. ET—watch for confirmation of the step-up above 250K.

• Shelter measures: Any moderation here would meaningfully aid core disinflation.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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14 pips, BTC 674 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 10 September 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and BTC on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips and BTC moved 674 points on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 10 September 2025.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

BTC (674 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Producer Prices Slip in August; Core PPI (Ex-Food & Energy) Down 0.1%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline PPI for final demand fell 0.1% in August 2025. Over the past year, producer prices are up 2.6%.

Key takeaways

• Core PPI (ex food & energy) fell 0.1% m/m and is up 2.8% y/y.

• Final demand services declined 0.2% m/m, led by a 1.7% drop in trade service margins (wholesalers/retailers).

• Final demand goods edged +0.1% m/m: core goods rose +0.3%, foods +0.1%, while energy -0.4%.

• Within services, margins for machinery & vehicle wholesaling -3.9%, while portfolio management +2.0% and freight +0.9% rose.

• Intermediate stages were mixed: processed goods +0.4%, unprocessed goods -1.1%, and services +0.3%.

What’s moving underneath

• Goods firmness came from tobacco (+2.3%), beef, processed poultry, electronics components, and electric power.

• Offsets included utility natural gas (-1.8%), vegetables, eggs, and copper scrap.

• On the pipeline side, stage 4 intermediate demand +0.5% (11th straight rise), while stage 2 -0.2%.

Why this matters

A negative core print (ex food & energy) at -0.1% m/m suggests some cooling in underlying producer-level inflation even as select core goods remain sticky. Combined with softer services margins, August points to easing pipeline pressures, though the y/y pace remains above pre-pandemic norms.

Next up: September PPI arrives October 16, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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42 pips, BTC 437 points potential profit in 50 seconds on 14 August 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and BTC on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 42 pips and BTC moved 437 points on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 14 August 2025.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (14 pips)

BTC (437 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Key Takeaways: July 2025 PPI

1. Overall Movement

• Final demand PPI rose 0.9% in July (seasonally adjusted).

• On a 12-month basis, final demand prices were up 3.3%, the largest increase since February 2025.

2. Goods vs. Services

• Services: Up 1.1%—major driver of the July increase.

  • Trade services (margins for wholesalers/retailers) jumped 2%.

  • Machinery & equipment wholesaling margins alone accounted for 30% of the rise.

  • Some declines: hospital outpatient care (-0.5%), furniture retailing, pipeline energy transport.

• Goods: Up 0.7%.

  • Food: +1.4%, with fresh/dry vegetables +38.9%.

  • Energy: +0.9% (gasoline down 1.8%).

3. Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services)

• Rose 0.6% in July.

• On a 12-month basis, up 2.8%—largest rise since March 2022.

Intermediate Demand (inputs for other goods/services)

• Processed goods: +0.8%, driven by diesel fuel (+11.8%).

• Unprocessed goods: +1.8%, led by raw milk (+9.1%).

• Services: +0.8%, driven by financial and postal/courier services.

By Production Stage

• Stage 1 (raw materials/services entering production): +1.1%

• Stage 2: +0.5%

• Stage 3: +1.1%

• Stage 4 (finished goods/services before sale to final demand): +0.8%

This shows that price pressures are broad-based, affecting raw inputs and final goods/services, with notable jumps in food, energy, and trade/service margins.

Implications

• Inflation signal: PPI rising at these rates suggests continuing cost pressures that could eventually feed into consumer prices (CPI).

• Sector insights:

  • Food and energy remain volatile.

  • Trade margins are a major contributor, showing higher costs along distribution chains.

  • Financial services costs are climbing (portfolio management, securities).

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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59 pips, US500 17 points, BTC 461 points potential profit in 72 seconds on 12 August 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY, US500, BTC on US CPI

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 59 pips, US500 moved 17 points and BTC moved 461 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 August 2025.

USDJPY (35 pip)

EURUSD (24 pips)

US500 (17 points)

BTC (461 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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July 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Update: What You Need to Know

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2025, offering important insights into inflation and price changes affecting everyday Americans. Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways from the latest report:

Modest Monthly Increase in Overall Prices

The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.2% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, a slight slowdown from June’s 0.3% increase. Over the past year, prices have increased by 2.7%, showing steady but moderate inflation.

What’s Driving the July Increase?

• Shelter Costs: The main contributor to the monthly rise was shelter, which increased by 0.2%. Rent and owners' equivalent rent both edged up, indicating that housing costs continue to be a significant factor in inflation.

• Food Prices: The overall food index remained flat in July. However, food away from home (restaurants, takeout) saw a small 0.3% rise, while food at home (groceries) actually decreased slightly by 0.1%. Within groceries, dairy products and meats experienced price gains, but other categories like cereals and bakery products fell.

• Energy Prices: Energy costs declined by 1.1%, largely due to a 2.2% drop in gasoline prices. Electricity and natural gas prices also edged lower, easing some pressure on household energy bills.

Core Inflation (Excluding Food and Energy)

Prices for all items excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June. This category includes:

• Medical Care: Increased notably, with dental services up 2.6% and hospital services also rising.

• Transportation Services: Airline fares jumped 4.0%, reversing a previous decline.

• Recreation, Household Furnishings, and Used Vehicles: All saw moderate price increases.

Conversely, lodging away from home and communication services saw price declines.

Year-Over-Year Inflation Trends

• The all items index rose 2.7% over the past 12 months.

• Core inflation (less food and energy) increased by 3.1%, reflecting ongoing upward pressure on many services and goods.

• Energy prices dropped 1.6% year-over-year, driven largely by lower gasoline costs.

• Food prices climbed 2.9%, with food away from home rising faster (3.9%) than food at home (2.2%).

Noteworthy Changes and Methodology Updates

• The BLS has updated how it measures wireless telephone services prices by using alternative data sources and methods, aiming for more accurate inflation tracking in this sector.

• Starting with October 2025 data, long-term care insurance will be removed from the health insurance index due to changes in that market.

What Does This Mean for You?

The July CPI data suggests that while inflation remains moderate, housing and medical care costs continue to be significant contributors to rising prices. Consumers may see some relief from falling energy prices, but dining out and healthcare expenses are becoming more costly.

Looking Ahead

The next CPI report is scheduled for release on September 11, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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19 pips potential profit in 136 seconds on 24 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 19 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 July 2025.

USDJPY (14 pips)

EURUSD (5 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Jobless Claims Dip Slightly Amid Signs of Steady Labor Market

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report, released today by the U.S. Department of Labor, shows a modest decline in initial jobless claims, signaling a steady—if slightly cooling—labor market.

Key Numbers: Week Ending July 19, 2025

• Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
  217,000 — down 4,000 from the prior week’s 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average:
  224,500 — a decrease of 5,000 from 229,500

• Insured Unemployment Rate (SA):
  1.3% — unchanged from the previous week

• Insured Unemployment Total (SA):
  1,955,000 — up by 4,000

Despite the small uptick in continued claims, the four-week moving average for insured unemployment also ticked slightly down, suggesting overall labor market resilience.

Unadjusted Data Highlights

• Initial Claims (NSA):
  215,792 — a 17.4% drop from the prior week, larger than expected

• Year-over-Year Comparison:
  Down from 225,839 during the same week last year

• Unadjusted Insured Unemployment:
  2,016,061 — up 4,568 week-over-week

• Continued Weeks Claimed Across All Programs:
  2,039,425 — an increase of 113,926 from the prior week

These figures include regular state programs, federal employees, veterans, and other claimants such as those under Workshare arrangements.

Where Claims Rose — and Why

States with Largest Increases in Initial Claims (Week Ending July 12):

State	Change	Layoff Sectors / Comments
New York	+10,001	Transportation, warehousing, public administration, construction
Nevada	+4,397	No comment
Texas	+2,984	Wholesale trade, health care, administrative & waste services
Georgia	+2,793	Manufacturing, health care, administrative & waste services, warehousing
Pennsylvania	+1,942	Admin & waste services, transportation, food services, professional/technical
Missouri	+1,279	Manufacturing, administrative & waste services, health care
California	+1,261	No comment
Arizona	+1,193	No comment
Florida	+1,147	Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade

These gains reflect layoffs across multiple sectors, notably in public-facing and logistics-heavy industries.

Where Claims Fell

Largest Decreases in Initial Claims:

State	Change	Comment
Michigan	-4,867	Fewer layoffs in manufacturing and management sectors
New Jersey	-3,206	No comment
Tennessee	-2,574	No comment
Kentucky	-1,579	No comment
Iowa	-1,385	No comment

Several states, particularly those with manufacturing-heavy economies, saw meaningful declines, potentially indicating production rebounds or stabilized operations.

Federal and Veteran Claims

• Federal Employees (Initial Claims): 789 — up by 193

• Veterans (Initial Claims): 302 — down by 101

• Continued Weeks Claimed (Federal Employees): 7,226 — up by 191

• Veterans: 4,479 — up by 167

While small in scale, these shifts highlight employment volatility in specific federal and military-related workforce segments.

States With Highest Insured Unemployment Rates (NSA)

State	Insured Unemployment Rate
New Jersey	2.8%
Rhode Island	2.7%
Puerto Rico	2.6%
Minnesota	2.4%
California	2.2%
Massachusetts	2.1%
Washington	2.1%
District of Columbia	2.0%
Oregon	1.9%
Pennsylvania	1.9%

These regions may face more sustained labor market pressure, especially in urban and service-heavy economies.

Takeaway

The labor market remains relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The decrease in initial claims and an unchanged insured unemployment rate suggest there is no immediate cause for concern. However, sector-specific layoffs and regional disparities point to underlying structural shifts worth monitoring.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

---

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16 pips, US500 3 points potential profit in 19 seconds on 16 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 16 July 2025.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

US500 (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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June 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) Report: Inflation Cools as Prices Hold Steady

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a cooling trend in wholesale inflation for June 2025. Headline PPI — which tracks the average changes in prices received by domestic producers — remained flat (0.0%) in June, signaling a pause in upward pricing pressure following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.3% decrease in April.

Key Highlights:

Final Demand Overview

• Overall PPI (Final Demand): 0.0% in June (seasonally adjusted)

• 12-month change (unadjusted): +2.3%

• Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade): 0.0% in June, +2.5% year-over-year

The flat monthly reading reflects a balance between rising goods prices and falling service prices. While final demand goods rose 0.3%, final demand services slipped by 0.1%.

Goods: Energy Lifts Prices

• Final demand goods posted their largest monthly rise since February, primarily due to a 0.3% increase in goods excluding food and energy.

• Energy prices rose 0.6%, with gasoline and residential electric power both contributing to the gains.

• Food prices rose 0.2%, though this was partially offset by a dramatic 21.8% drop in chicken egg prices.

Notable price gains:

• Communication equipment: +0.8%

• Gasoline

• Tree nuts and prepared poultry

Notable price declines:

• Chicken eggs: -21.8%

• Thermoplastic resins

• Natural gas liquids

Services: Softening Demand

• Final demand services dropped 0.1%, mainly driven by declines in services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing.

• Travel-related services showed weakness:

  • Traveler accommodations: -4.1%

  • Airline passenger services: Down

• Financial services saw mixed trends:

  • Portfolio management: +2.2%

  • Deposit services (partial): Down

Intermediate Demand: Mixed Trends

• Processed goods: +0.1% (third monthly gain)

• Unprocessed goods: +0.7% (largest increase since January)

• Services: -0.1%

Key intermediate commodity trends:

• Natural gas to utilities: +12.1%

• Slaughter cattle & poultry: Increased

• Ungraded chicken eggs: -25.0%

• Deposit services (partial): -5.4%

Stage-by-Stage Price Flows

• Stage 4 Intermediate Demand: Unchanged (goods +0.2%, services -0.1%)

• Stage 3: -0.2% (driven by falling raw material prices)

• Stage 2: +0.2% (goods +0.6%, services -0.2%)

• Stage 1: -0.1% (services prices falling more than goods rose)

Looking Ahead: Index Changes

Starting with the July 2025 release (due August 14), BLS will:

• Discontinue 5 FD-ID indexes

• Cease publication of ~350 industry and commodity PPIs

• Update sampling for 11 industries, including:

  • Tobacco manufacturing

  • Railroad rolling stock

  • Nursing care facilities

  • Industrial sand mining

These changes reflect an effort to keep the PPI current with shifts in industry structure, production methods, and product offerings.

Conclusion

The June 2025 PPI report points to stable producer prices, with inflationary pressures easing in the service sector and moderate gains in goods pricing. The flat reading supports the view that upstream inflation is under control, even as certain volatile categories (like energy and food) continue to swing.

As the Federal Reserve monitors these figures closely, this data may reinforce expectations for a pause in rate hikes, keeping the focus on sustaining disinflation while supporting economic stability.

Next PPI Release: August 14, 2025

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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13 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 10 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 13 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 10 July 2025.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Claims Drop Slightly, but Insured Unemployment Hits Highest Level Since 2021

The U.S. labor market saw modest improvement last week, as new unemployment claims dipped slightly. However, underlying data shows signs of increased strain in the system, with insured unemployment rising to levels not seen since late 2021.

Initial Claims Decline, But Remain Elevated

For the week ending July 5, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims dropped to 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 232,000. The 4-week moving average—a more stable measure—fell to 235,500, its lowest level in over a month.

However, the unadjusted figures tell a different story. Actual initial claims filed totaled 240,802, up 10,004 from the previous week. This increase was lower than expected, suggesting less seasonal volatility than anticipated.

Insured Unemployment Rises to Highest Since 2021

While fewer people filed for new claims, ongoing unemployment (those continuing to receive benefits) rose to its highest point in nearly four years:

• 1,965,000 individuals were receiving insured unemployment benefits for the week ending June 28, up 10,000 from the week before.

• This marks the highest level since November 13, 2021.

• The 4-week moving average also climbed to 1,955,250, the highest since November 2021.

Despite the rise, the insured unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) held steady at 1.3%, while the unadjusted rate ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%.

State-Level Trends: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?

Some states saw notable shifts in unemployment activity:

Largest Increases in Initial Claims:

• New Jersey: +4,684 (due to layoffs in education and public administration)

• New York: +3,323 (health care, transportation, hospitality)

• Illinois: +1,840 (manufacturing, retail, logistics)

Largest Decreases:

• Pennsylvania: -2,910

• California: -2,822

• Connecticut: -2,407
  These decreases were primarily attributed to fewer layoffs in industries like transportation, accommodations, and health care.

Highest Insured Unemployment Rates:

• Puerto Rico: 2.4%

• Minnesota & New Jersey: 2.3%

• California & Rhode Island: 2.2%

Federal Program Activity

While most UI activity is state-based, federal claims also shifted slightly:

• Federal civilian initial claims: 438 (down 15)

• Veteran initial claims: 388 (up 37)

• Continued weeks claimed by federal employees and veterans also changed modestly, but remained below pre-pandemic levels.

What Does This Mean?

The data paints a mixed picture: fewer people are entering unemployment, but more are staying on benefits longer—possibly signaling a slower reabsorption into the workforce.

While no states were triggered onto the Extended Benefits (EB) program this week, the sustained rise in continued claims suggests some softening in the labor market.

Bottom Line:
Initial jobless claims are steady, but the rise in ongoing unemployment benefits is worth watching. As seasonal adjustments settle and summer transitions into fall, the labor market may face new pressures.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

---

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26 pips potential profit in 48 seconds on 26 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 26 pips on US Jobless Claims, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Durable Goods Orders data on 26 June 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (7 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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A Mixed Economic Picture: Weekly Jobless Claims Drop, Durable Goods Surge, but GDP Contracts

This week brought a flurry of economic data from key U.S. government agencies, painting a mixed picture of the American economy as it navigates a period of turbulence. From a surprise decline in jobless claims to a dramatic rebound in durable goods orders and a downward revision in GDP, here’s what you need to know.

Jobless Claims Dip Amid Growing Insured Unemployment

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, a decrease of 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average also declined slightly to 245,000, reflecting modest labor market stability.

However, the story takes a turn when we look at continued claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving benefits. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment climbed to 1.974 million in the week ending June 14—the highest level since November 2021. The insured unemployment rate remains at 1.3%, unchanged but notably elevated.

Notably, unadjusted data showed insured unemployment rising by 58,030 to over 1.87 million, with states like California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania reporting the largest volumes of insured unemployed individuals. Meanwhile, layoffs in education, transportation, and hospitality sectors were major contributors to localized surges in initial claims, especially in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Oregon.

Durable Goods Orders Roar Back in May

The Census Bureau delivered a dose of optimism: new orders for manufactured durable goods surged by a staggering 16.4% in May, reaching $343.6 billion. This strong rebound follows a sharp 6.6% decline in April, suggesting a volatile but recovering manufacturing sector.

The increase was led almost entirely by transportation equipment, which jumped 48.3% to $145.4 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders still managed a respectable 0.5% gain, and excluding defense, orders rose 15.5%, underscoring broad-based demand in the private sector.

GDP Revised Down: Economic Contraction in Q1

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised first-quarter real GDP growth down to -0.5%, confirming that the U.S. economy contracted after a 2.4% increase in the previous quarter. This marks a notable deceleration, attributed primarily to:

• Increased imports (which subtract from GDP),

• Weaker government spending, and

• Slower consumer spending, particularly in services like recreation and transportation.

Revised data showed that real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.9%, down from earlier estimates, signaling waning consumer demand. Corporate profits also fell by $90.6 billion, despite being revised upward by $27.5 billion from earlier estimates.

What It All Means

The juxtaposition of falling jobless claims and surging durable goods orders with a contracting GDP highlights the complex and uneven state of the U.S. economy:

• The labor market remains resilient on the surface, but underlying weakness is showing up in rising continued claims.

• Manufacturing appears to be regaining momentum, driven largely by transportation.

• The overall economy contracted, signaling that business activity and consumer strength are faltering.

As the Federal Reserve weighs inflation data against slowing growth, policymakers and market participants alike will need to watch these signals closely in the weeks ahead.

Key Data at a Glance:

Indicator	Latest Value	Notes
Initial Jobless Claims	236,000	Down 10,000 from previous week
4-Week Avg. Jobless Claims	245,000	Down 750 from previous week
Insured Unemployment	1.974 million	Highest since November 2021
Durable Goods Orders	+16.4%	$343.6 billion in May
Durable Goods (ex-transportation)	+0.5%	Broader indicator of core demand
Real GDP (Q1 2025)	-0.5%	Downward revision from -0.2%
Corporate Profits	-$90.6 billion	Revised up $27.5 billion
PCE Price Index	+3.7%	Inflation remains elevated
Real GDI	+0.2%	Revised up from -0.2%

Bottom Line: The economy is sending mixed signals. While manufacturing shows vigor and layoffs have slowed, continued joblessness is climbing and GDP is in the red. We may be in for a bumpy ride as the second half of 2025 unfolds.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html, https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits

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41 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 12 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 41 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 12 June 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (21 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Jobless Claims Steady, But Trends Show Rising Insured Unemployment. Producer Prices Edge Up: What It Means for the U.S. Economy

Published: June 12, 2025

The latest economic data paints a picture of a U.S. economy that’s holding steady—but showing some signs of strain beneath the surface. Two major releases today from the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provide insight into both the labor market and inflation trends.

Unemployment Claims Show Stability in New Layoffs, But Pressure is Mounting

Initial jobless claims remained flat at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, 2025 (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised figure. However, the 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023—an early signal that labor market softening may be gaining momentum.

Key takeaways:

• Continued claims (insured unemployment) climbed to 1.96 million, up by 54,000, the highest level since November 2021.

• The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%, from 1.2% the previous week.

• Unadjusted initial claims rose 17.1% to 244,752, reflecting real increases in layoffs.

Notable State-Level Trends:

• Increases: Kentucky (+3,967, due to manufacturing layoffs), Minnesota (+2,364, education sector), and Tennessee (+1,764).

• Decreases: Michigan (-3,783), Florida (-1,456), and Massachusetts (-1,585) saw fewer layoffs across multiple sectors.

These trends suggest that while broad-based layoffs remain limited, certain industries—particularly manufacturing and education—are facing headwinds.

Producer Prices Inch Up: Inflation Pressures Persist in Select Areas

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following declines in April (-0.2%) and March (-0.1%). Over the past 12 months, the index has increased 2.6%, signaling moderate but persistent inflationary pressure on wholesale goods and services.

Breakdown of May PPI Data:

• Final Demand Goods: Rose 0.2%, driven by increases in tobacco products, processed poultry, and roasted coffee.

• Final Demand Services: Up 0.1%, thanks to higher margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, though airline passenger services dropped 1.1%.

• Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services): Also increased 0.1%, with a 12-month increase of 2.7%.

Intermediate Demand Trends:

• Processed goods for intermediate demand increased 0.1%, but unprocessed goods dropped 1.6%, driven by an 18.7% plunge in natural gas prices.

• Prices for services for intermediate demand also rose slightly, lifted by increases in metals and minerals wholesaling and property management fees.

Economic Interpretation

Together, these two reports reflect a labor market with pockets of weakness and a producer-side inflation landscape that is not retreating quickly. While jobless claims aren’t yet surging, rising continued claims hint at a cooling labor market—potentially making it harder for displaced workers to quickly find new jobs.

At the same time, the small rise in producer prices—particularly in core goods and services—could keep inflation concerns alive at the Federal Reserve, which has paused rate hikes but continues to watch price dynamics closely.

What to Watch Going Forward

• Will continued unemployment claims persist above 1.9 million?

• How will consumer inflation respond to rising wholesale prices?

• Will industries like manufacturing and education see further layoffs?

The June data provides a snapshot of an economy in delicate balance—neither overheating nor in clear decline. As the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves and policymakers monitor both job and price data, the coming months will be pivotal for understanding the full trajectory of the U.S. recovery.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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3 pips and BTC 222 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 11 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and BTC on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 3 pips and BTC moved 222 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 June 2025.

USDJPY (1 pip)

EURUSD (2 pips)

BTC (222 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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May 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Holds Steady, Energy Prices Drag Down Headline Numbers

June 12, 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2025, and the data shows a continued cooling in inflation, with a slight 0.1% increase in consumer prices on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a slowdown from April’s 0.2% increase and offers further evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating—albeit unevenly across categories.

Headline Figures at a Glance

• Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted): +0.1% in May

• 12-month CPI (unadjusted): +2.4%

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.1% for the month; +2.8% year-over-year

• Energy index: -1.0% for the month; -3.5% year-over-year

• Food index: +0.3% for the month; +2.9% year-over-year

What’s Driving the Numbers?

Shelter Continues to Lead

Shelter prices rose 0.3% in May, maintaining a steady upward climb that has been a consistent inflation driver over the past year. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up 3.9%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall price increase.

Food Prices Edge Up

Food prices increased 0.3% in May, reversing April’s slight decline. The increase was spread across both food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%). Notably:

• Cereals and bakery products rose 1.1%

• Egg prices dropped 2.7%, though they’re still up 41.5% year-over-year

• Fruits and vegetables nudged up 0.3%, but are down 0.5% over the year

Energy Prices Plunge

Energy was the biggest drag on the overall index. The energy index dropped 1.0%, led by a 2.6% decline in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months:

• Gasoline is down 12.0%

• Fuel oil is down 8.6%

• Electricity, however, is up 4.5%

• Natural gas soared 15.3%

Core Services Show Mild Growth

Excluding food and energy, prices rose only 0.1% in May. Increases were noted in:

• Medical care services (+0.2%)

• Motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%)

• Education (+0.3%)

At the same time, several consumer items saw declines, including:

• Used cars and trucks (-0.5%)

• New vehicles (-0.3%)

• Apparel (-0.4%)

• Airline fares (-2.7%)

What Does This Mean?

The May CPI report underscores a key theme: inflation is slowing but not uniformly. Core inflation remains sticky, especially in services like shelter and insurance, while energy and some goods prices continue to drop, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room as it weighs future interest rate decisions.

A 2.4% annual inflation rate is close to the Fed’s 2% target, but the 2.8% core inflation figure suggests more progress is needed before declaring full victory over inflation.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead, two major changes are coming:

• Rebasing of CPI series starting in July 2025 will align selected indexes to a new reference base of December 2024 = 100.

• Changes to wireless services CPI methodology beginning with July data will use alternative data sources and methods to reflect real-time pricing trends more accurately.

The June CPI report is scheduled for release on July 15, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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