August 2026 CPI: Hotter Core CPI Sends US500 Down 48 Ticks and Gold Down 19 Points

According to our analysis US500 moved 48 ticks and XAUUSD 19 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2026.

US500 (48 ticks)

XAUUSD (19 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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HAAWKS Research

Hotter Core CPI Sends US500 Down 48 Ticks and Gold Down 19 Points

August U.S. inflation data delivered a hotter-than-expected core CPI reading, triggering an immediate hawkish repricing across equities, gold and interest-rate expectations.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • U.S. Consumer Price Index

The August 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index delivered a mixed headline but a more important upside surprise in underlying inflation.

Headline CPI increased 0.4% month over month, in line with expectations, while the annual rate stood at 3.4%.

The more market-sensitive core measure increased 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% consensus forecast. Core inflation was 2.4% year over year.

HAAWKS first read: the headline CPI result itself was not the key surprise. The immediate hawkish signal came primarily from the hotter 0.3% core CPI reading versus 0.2% expected. HAAWKS measured an initial 48-tick decline in US500 and 19-point decline in XAU/USD.

August CPI: Estimates vs. Actual

Headline CPI MoM +0.4% Expected: +0.4%

Headline CPI YoY 3.4% Expected: 3.4%

Core CPI MoM +0.3% Expected: +0.2%

Core CPI YoY 2.4% Expected: 2.4%

Inflation Measure	Consensus	Actual	HAAWKS News-Trader Read
Headline CPI MoM	+0.4%	+0.4%	Matched expectations and therefore provided little standalone surprise.
Headline CPI YoY	3.4%	3.4%	Annual headline inflation remained elevated.
Core CPI MoM	+0.2%	+0.3%	The key upside surprise and the most clearly hawkish element of the release.
Core CPI YoY	2.4%	2.4%	Matched expectations.

Immediate Market Reaction

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis captured an immediate downside reaction in both US500 and gold following the 8:30 a.m. ET inflation release.

US500 −48 Ticks Immediate release-window decline

XAU/USD −19 Points Immediate release-window decline

Market	Measured Move	Direction	News-Trader Interpretation
US500	48 ticks	Lower	The hotter core CPI increased expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, initially pressuring equities.
XAU/USD	19 points	Lower	Higher expected policy rates reduced the immediate appeal of non-yielding gold.

Why the Core CPI Number Mattered Most

For news traders, this release provides another example of why headline inflation cannot be read in isolation.

Headline CPI at 0.4% was in line with expectations. If that had been the only relevant data point, the inflation release would have contained relatively little immediate surprise.

Core CPI told a different story. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% during August instead of the 0.2% economists had expected.

That difference strengthened the view that underlying inflation pressure remained persistent enough to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

HAAWKS view: the initial US500 and gold reaction was driven less by the headline CPI number, which broadly matched expectations, and more by the upside surprise in monthly core inflation and its implications for interest rates.

What Drove August Inflation?

CPI Component	August MoM	12-Month Change	HAAWKS Read-Through
All Items	+0.4%	+3.4%	Headline monthly inflation accelerated.
Core CPI	+0.3%	+2.4%	Monthly core inflation exceeded consensus.
Energy	+2.1%	+16.3%	Energy remained an important source of headline inflation pressure.
Gasoline	+3.9%	+27.4%	Gasoline accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in headline CPI.
Shelter	+0.3%	+3.0%	Shelter accelerated from the previous month.
Food	+0.1%	+2.7%	Food inflation remained comparatively moderate.
Services Less Energy Services	+0.3%	+3.0%	Continued services inflation remained relevant to the underlying inflation picture.

Gasoline Drove Part of the Headline Increase

Energy prices were an important contributor to August inflation. The energy index increased 2.1% during the month.

Gasoline prices increased 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the all-items CPI. Over the previous 12 months, gasoline prices increased 27.4%.

Fuel oil also increased sharply during the month, while other energy components were less inflationary.

Underlying Inflation Was Broader Than Energy

The core inflation increase was distributed across several categories, reinforcing the importance of looking beyond volatile energy prices.

Shelter increased 0.3%, while several transportation and service categories also recorded price increases.

This combination helped explain why the monthly core figure exceeded expectations despite some categories continuing to show weaker price pressure.

The Federal Reserve Repricing

The CPI report arrived shortly before the September Federal Reserve policy decision, increasing its significance for rate-sensitive markets.

Recent employment data had already demonstrated stronger labor-market conditions. The hotter core CPI figure added another argument for maintaining tighter monetary policy.

Core CPI Beat Expectations

A 0.3% monthly increase compared with 0.2% expected was the clearest hawkish surprise in the report.

Energy Inflation Accelerated

Energy increased 2.1%, with gasoline up 3.9%, keeping headline inflation pressure elevated.

Shelter Increased 0.3%

Shelter remained an important component of underlying consumer inflation.

Policy Expectations Changed

The combination of stronger employment data and firmer core inflation reinforced expectations for restrictive monetary policy.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Trading Session

News traders should distinguish the immediate release-window response from subsequent full-session market performance.

HAAWKS measured an initial 48-tick decline in US500 and a 19-point decline in XAU/USD around the CPI release.

Markets can subsequently retrace or reverse these initial moves as liquidity normalizes, traders reassess individual components and additional market information enters prices.

News-trader takeaway: release-window analysis measures the market's first response to new information. It should not be confused with the direction or size of the move over the entire trading session.

What This CPI Release Shows News Traders

Actual vs. Consensus Is the Primary Signal

Headline CPI at 0.4% carried limited surprise because it matched expectations. Core CPI at 0.3% mattered because the market had expected only 0.2%.

Headline and Core CPI Can Send Different Signals

A professional news-trading system should distinguish all-items CPI from the core measure. Each field can have a different surprise magnitude and a different effect on interest-rate expectations.

Component Data Adds Context

Gasoline, energy, shelter and service-price components help traders understand whether inflation pressure is concentrated in volatile categories or is becoming more broadly distributed.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Matters

The initial simultaneous declines in US500 and gold were consistent with a more hawkish interpretation of the inflation data.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 48-tick US500 and 19-point XAU/USD moves represent measured historical price movement. Actual execution can differ materially due to latency, spreads, liquidity, slippage, order type and execution venue.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The August CPI report delivered a more nuanced result than the headline number alone suggested.

Headline CPI increased 0.4%, broadly matching market expectations, while annual inflation stood at 3.4%.

The key market-moving surprise was core CPI, which increased 0.3% month over month against expectations for 0.2%.

Energy also accelerated, with gasoline increasing 3.9%, while shelter prices rose 0.3%.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 48-tick decline in US500 and 19-point decline in XAU/USD following the release.

For professional news traders, the release demonstrates why receiving only the headline CPI figure is not enough. Headline CPI, core CPI, expectations and individual components need to be processed together to identify the actual surprise and understand the market's initial interpretation.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Built for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable data for U.S. macroeconomic and commodity releases, together with macroeconomic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey, as well as ECB interest-rate decisions and statements.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, August 2026
   Official source for headline CPI, core CPI and detailed inflation components.
2. HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
   Source for the measured immediate release-window movements of 48 ticks in US500 and 19 points in XAU/USD.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The price movements described are historical measured market reactions and do not represent guaranteed or necessarily achievable trading profits. Tick and point values are instrument-specific measures and should not be treated as standardized financial returns. Actual trading results depend on data latency, processing latency, liquidity, spreads, slippage, order type, execution venue and risk management. Past market behavior is not indicative of future results.

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June 2026 CPI: Cooler Inflation Sends the Dollar Lower and Risk Assets Higher

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 21 pips, EURUSD moved 17 pips, US500 moved 76 ticks and XAUUSD 34 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 14 July 2026.

USDJPY (21 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

US500 (76 ticks)

XAUUSD (34 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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HAAWKS Research

June 2026 CPI: Inflation Cools Faster Than Expected

A sharp decline in energy prices and an unexpectedly soft core reading triggered immediate moves across currencies, gold and U.S. equities.

July 14, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • Consumer Price Index

The June 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index delivered a clear downside inflation surprise. Headline CPI declined 0.4% month over month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged during the month and slowed to 2.6% year over year.

The report was softer than economists had expected at both the headline and core levels. Markets responded by selling the U.S. dollar and moving into rate-sensitive assets, including gold and U.S. equities.

HAAWKS first read: The release reduced immediate inflation anxiety, but the details require balance. Falling energy prices drove much of the headline decline, while the unchanged core reading showed that underlying inflation also cooled during June.

CPI Estimates vs. Actual Release

Headline CPI MoM −0.4% Forecast: −0.1%

Headline CPI YoY 3.5% Forecast: 3.8%

Core CPI MoM 0.0% Forecast: +0.2%

Core CPI YoY 2.6% Forecast: 2.8%

June 2026 CPI estimates compared with actual results

Inflation Indicator	Estimate	Actual	HAAWKS Read-through
Headline CPI MoM	−0.1%	−0.4%	A materially softer monthly reading, driven primarily by lower energy prices.
Headline CPI YoY	3.8%	3.5%	Annual inflation slowed more quickly than markets expected.
Core CPI MoM	+0.2%	0.0%	The unchanged core index was an important downside surprise.
Core CPI YoY	2.8%	2.6%	Underlying annual inflation continued moving toward a more moderate pace.

What Drove the Inflation Decline?

Energy was the largest contributor to the monthly decline. The energy index fell 5.7%, while gasoline prices dropped 9.7%. Those declines more than offset increases in food and shelter.

Food prices increased 0.2% during June, while shelter rose only 0.1%—its smallest monthly increase since January 2021. Motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care and used vehicle prices also declined.

Key components of the June 2026 Consumer Price Index

CPI Component	Monthly Change	Annual Change	Interpretation
All Items	−0.4%	+3.5%	The largest monthly headline decline since April 2020.
Core CPI	0.0%	+2.6%	Underlying price pressures were unchanged during the month.
Energy	−5.7%	+15.7%	The largest contributor to the monthly CPI decline.
Gasoline	−9.7%	+26.7%	A sharp monthly reversal, although prices remained elevated compared with a year earlier.
Shelter	+0.1%	+3.3%	The smallest monthly shelter increase since January 2021.
Food	+0.2%	+3.0%	Food inflation remained positive but relatively contained.

Market Impact at a Glance

HAAWKS tick charts captured the initial release-window moves immediately following the 8:30 a.m. ET CPI announcement.

Market impact following the June 2026 CPI release

Market	Measured Move	Initial Direction	HAAWKS Interpretation
USD/JPY	21 pips	Lower	The dollar weakened against the yen as traders reduced the probability of near-term Federal Reserve tightening.
EUR/USD	17 pips	Higher	The euro advanced as the softer inflation reading pressured the broader U.S. dollar.
US500	76 ticks	Higher	Equities rallied as the inflation surprise reduced immediate concerns about restrictive monetary policy.
XAU/USD	34 points	Higher	Gold benefited from a weaker dollar and lower expectations for near-term interest-rate increases.

Cross-Asset Market Reading

Foreign Exchange

The immediate FX response was a weaker U.S. dollar. USD/JPY moved lower, while EUR/USD moved higher. This was consistent with markets reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to tighten policy in the immediate future.

Gold

Gold produced one of the strongest reactions. Softer inflation generally supports non-yielding assets when it lowers Treasury yields and weakens the dollar. The HAAWKS measurement recorded a 34-point release-window advance.

U.S. Equities

The US500 initially gained 76 ticks. The market interpreted the report as supportive for valuations because inflation cooled without the release itself presenting a direct signal of collapsing economic demand.

HAAWKS view: The release created a broadly dovish cross-asset response—USD lower, gold higher and equities higher. The core CPI miss strengthened the move because the moderation was not limited entirely to volatile energy prices.

What the CPI Report Means for the Fed

The June figures gave policymakers additional breathing room. Headline inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s longer-term objective, but both headline and core CPI came in below expectations.

The report does not eliminate future inflation risk. Much of the headline decline reflected lower gasoline and energy prices, which can reverse quickly. Renewed pressure on oil markets could therefore make upcoming inflation reports less favorable.

For traders, the key question is whether the softer core readings continue. A sustained moderation in shelter and services inflation would provide a stronger signal than a single energy-driven monthly decline.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The June CPI release was decisively softer than expected. Headline prices fell 0.4%, core prices were unchanged and both annual measures undershot consensus forecasts.

Markets reacted in a clear and coordinated manner: the dollar weakened, gold advanced and the US500 rallied. The HAAWKS measurements recorded 21 pips in USD/JPY, 17 pips in EUR/USD, 76 ticks in the US500 and 34 points in XAU/USD.

The report offered short-term relief from inflation concerns, but it should not be viewed as an all-clear signal. Energy volatility remains a material risk, and annual headline inflation was still elevated.

The central message is therefore one of moderation rather than victory: inflation cooled faster than expected, underlying pressure eased and markets rapidly repriced the near-term policy outlook.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, June 2026 . Official CPI figures, component data and release details.
2. Reuters — U.S. consumer inflation preview and economist consensus
   Used for the pre-release market estimates for headline and core consumer inflation.
3. Reuters — Traders reduce expectations for a July Fed rate increase
   Used for market-implied Federal Reserve policy expectations following the report.
4. HAAWKS internal tick-chart screenshots captured on July 14, 2026. Used for the measured release-window moves in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, US500 and XAU/USD.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and past market behavior is not indicative of future results.

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

20 ticks potential profit in 37 seconds on 13 May 2026, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading US500 futures on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis US500 moved 5 points (20 ticks) on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 13 May 2026.

US500 (5 points / 20 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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April 2026 PPI: Wholesale Inflation Surges as Energy, Freight, and Trade Margins Jump

The April 2026 Producer Price Index report delivered a clear signal: price pressures at the producer level accelerated sharply.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.4% in April, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That followed increases of 0.7% in March and 0.6% in February, making April the largest monthly gain since March 2022.

On a year-over-year basis, final demand prices were up 6.0%, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.

For businesses, consumers, and policymakers, the report suggests that inflation pressures are not just lingering; they may be broadening again across key parts of the economy.

Services Did Most of the Heavy Lifting

Nearly 60% of April’s increase in final demand prices came from services. The index for final demand services rose 1.2%, its largest monthly increase since March 2022.

A major driver was trade services, where margins received by wholesalers and retailers jumped 2.7%. Transportation and warehousing services also surged, rising 5.0% in the month.

Several categories contributed to the rise, including:

• Machinery and equipment wholesaling

• Truck transportation of freight

• Fuels and lubricants retailing

• Health, beauty, and optical goods retailing

• Chemicals and allied products wholesaling

• Legal services

Not every service category moved higher. Portfolio management prices fell 2.4%, while food retailing margins and metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling margins also declined.

Still, the services side of the report was notably strong, especially in areas tied to distribution, freight, and wholesale margins.

Goods Prices Also Rose Sharply

Final demand goods prices increased 2.0% in April after rising 1.9% in March.

Energy was the main story. Final demand energy prices jumped 7.8%, accounting for more than three-quarters of the overall goods increase.

Gasoline alone rose 15.6% and accounted for more than 40% of the April rise in final demand goods prices. Other energy-related increases included jet fuel, diesel fuel, and residual fuels.

There were also increases in fresh and dry vegetables and industrial chemicals.

One striking exception was chicken eggs, whose index dropped 49.7%. Nonferrous scrap and residential natural gas prices also declined.

Core Producer Inflation Picked Up Too

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6% in April. That was the largest increase since October 2025.

Over the past 12 months, this core measure increased 4.4%, the largest year-over-year gain since February 2023.

That matters because this measure strips out some of the most volatile categories. A strong increase here suggests the April report was not only about energy swings. Underlying price pressure also strengthened.

Intermediate Demand Shows Pipeline Pressure

The report also showed strong increases earlier in the production chain.

Processed goods for intermediate demand rose 2.7% in April, the sixth straight monthly increase. Processed energy goods rose 7.8%, while processed materials excluding food and energy increased 1.5%.

Over the past year, processed goods for intermediate demand rose 9.4%, the largest 12-month increase since October 2022.

Unprocessed goods prices rose even faster, climbing 4.1% in April. The biggest driver was unprocessed energy materials, up 9.2%. Crude petroleum rose 11.3%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the advance in unprocessed goods.

The 12-month increase for unprocessed goods reached 20.9%, the largest since September 2022.

These intermediate demand numbers suggest that cost pressures are building not only at the final stage but also deeper in the supply chain.

Freight and Transportation Costs Stand Out

Transportation was one of the clearest pressure points in the report.

Final demand transportation and warehousing services rose 5.0%, while transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand jumped 3.7%.

Truck transportation of freight was especially important. It contributed to increases in both final demand services and intermediate demand services, with truck freight prices rising 8.1% in the intermediate demand category.

Higher freight costs can ripple through the economy because they affect the cost of moving raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products. When transportation costs rise quickly, businesses may face pressure to raise prices or absorb lower margins.

Production Flow Data Point to Broad-Based Increases

The production flow measures also showed broad price gains across stages of production.

Stage 4 intermediate demand rose 0.9%, the largest increase since January 2023. Stage 3 rose 2.3%, stage 2 increased 2.8%, and stage 1 advanced 2.1%.

The strongest monthly increase came from stage 2 intermediate demand, where goods inputs climbed 5.1%.

Year-over-year increases were also notable:

• Stage 4 intermediate demand: 5.4%

• Stage 3 intermediate demand: 5.9%

• Stage 2 intermediate demand: 11.1%

• Stage 1 intermediate demand: 8.9%

The especially large increases in earlier stages suggest cost pressures could continue feeding into later stages if they persist.

What This Means

April’s PPI report was hot across several dimensions.

Energy was a major contributor, especially gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and crude petroleum. But the report was not limited to energy. Services prices, trade margins, freight costs, chemicals, and several wholesale categories also rose.

The rise in the core final demand measure adds to the significance of the report. When prices excluding food, energy, and trade services are rising at the fastest year-over-year pace in more than three years, it points to broader inflation pressure beneath the headline number.

For businesses, the report suggests higher input costs may be returning across transportation, energy, materials, and distribution channels. For consumers, the PPI does not directly measure retail prices, but producer cost increases can eventually flow through to consumer prices.

For policymakers, the April data complicates the inflation picture. A single month does not make a trend, but this report showed acceleration across headline PPI, core PPI, goods, services, and intermediate demand.

Bottom Line

The April 2026 Producer Price Index report showed a sharp acceleration in wholesale inflation. Final demand prices rose 1.4% for the month and 6.0% from a year earlier, both marking the strongest readings in years.

Energy was the biggest driver, but services, freight, trade margins, and intermediate goods also showed meaningful price pressure.

The next PPI report, covering May 2026, is scheduled for release on Thursday, June 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

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16 pips, US500 12 points points potential profit in 31 seconds on 13 February 2026, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips and US500 moved 12 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 February 2026.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

US500 (12 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Inflation Cools Further in January 2026 as Energy Prices Fall

The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that inflation continued to moderate in January 2026, with overall price growth easing on both a monthly and annual basis.

Headline Inflation: Modest Monthly Increase

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in January (seasonally adjusted). Over the past 12 months, prices increased 2.4 percent, down from 2.7 percent in December.

This marks continued progress toward price stability, with year-over-year inflation now firmly in the mid-2 percent range.

What Drove January’s Increase?

Several categories contributed to the monthly increase:

• Shelter: +0.2%

• Food: +0.2%

• Core inflation (all items less food and energy): +0.3%

However, falling energy prices helped offset some of the upward pressure.

Energy Prices: A Key Relief Factor

Energy prices declined 1.5 percent in January, providing a notable offset to increases elsewhere.

• Gasoline: −3.2% (−7.5% over the past year)

• Electricity: −0.1% (but +6.3% over the past year)

• Natural gas: +1.0% (+9.8% over the past year)

Over the last 12 months, overall energy prices are down 0.1 percent, largely due to the steep annual decline in gasoline.

Food Prices: Gradual but Persistent Growth

Food prices increased 0.2 percent in January.

Grocery Prices (Food at Home): +0.2%

Five of six major grocery categories rose:

• Cereals and bakery products: +1.2%

• Dairy products: +0.8%

• Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: +0.2%

• Fruits and vegetables: +0.1%

• Nonalcoholic beverages: +0.1%

On a 12-month basis, grocery prices are up 2.1 percent.

Dining Out (Food Away from Home): +0.1%

Restaurant prices rose more modestly in January but are still up 4.0 percent over the past year, with:

• Full service meals: +4.7%

• Limited service meals: +3.2%

Restaurant inflation continues to outpace grocery inflation.

Core Inflation: Services Still Firm

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3 percent in January and is up 2.5 percent year-over-year.

Key contributors:

Shelter

• +0.2% in January

• +3.0% over the past year

Owners’ equivalent rent and rent both rose 0.2% for the month.

Transportation Services

• +1.4% in January

• Airline fares surged 6.5% for the month.

Medical Care

• +0.3% in January

• +3.9% over the past year

• Hospital services: +0.9% in January

Used Cars

• −1.8% in January

• −2.0% over the past year

Vehicle prices continue to normalize after earlier volatility.

Big Picture: Inflation Is Cooling, But Not Gone

Here’s where inflation stands:

Category12-Month ChangeAll Items2.4%Core (less food & energy)2.5%Food2.9%Energy−0.1%Shelter3.0%

The overall trend shows:

• Energy prices helping moderate inflation.

• Core services (especially shelter and medical care) continuing to rise.

• Restaurant inflation remaining elevated.

• Goods prices (like used vehicles) generally softening.

Additional Notes

• The CPI index level now stands at 325.252 (1982–84 = 100).

• CPI-W (Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) rose 2.2% year-over-year.

• The Chained CPI (C-CPI-U) increased 2.2% year-over-year.

• October and November 2025 data were unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations.

• Seasonal adjustment factors were revised, affecting data back five years.

What to Watch Next

The February 2026 CPI report will be released on March 11, 2026.

Markets and policymakers will be watching closely to see:

• Whether energy continues to ease pressure,

• If shelter inflation continues to moderate,

• And whether core services remain sticky.

For now, January’s data suggest inflation is gradually stabilizing, though certain categories—particularly services—remain areas of persistent upward pressure.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

5 pips, US500 13 points, BTC 177 points potential profit in 62 seconds on 13 January 2026, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, US500 and BTC on US CPI

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 5 pips, US500 moved 13 points and BTC moved 177 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 January 2026.

EURUSD (5 pips)

US500 (13 points)

BTC (177 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Inflation Ends 2025 Steady: What the December CPI Report Tells Us

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a clear snapshot of how inflation wrapped up 2025—and what it means for households heading into the new year.

Released on January 13, 2026, the report shows that inflation remains moderate but persistent, with price pressures still concentrated in essentials like housing, food, and certain services.

Headline Numbers at a Glance

• Monthly CPI (December 2025): +0.3% (seasonally adjusted)

• 12-month inflation rate: 2.7%, unchanged from November

• Core inflation (excluding food & energy): 2.6% year over year

These figures suggest inflation is no longer accelerating, but it also hasn’t fully cooled back to pre-pandemic norms.

Housing: Still the Biggest Driver

Shelter costs were once again the largest contributor to December’s increase:

• Shelter index: +0.4% in December

• 12-month shelter inflation: +3.2%

Rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose, while lodging away from home jumped sharply (+2.9% for the month). Housing remains the stickiest part of inflation—and the hardest for consumers to avoid.

Food Prices Pick Up Speed

Food prices rose faster than overall inflation in December:

• Food (overall): +0.7% in December

• Food at home: +2.4% year over year

• Food away from home: +4.1% year over year

Notable details:

• Grocery staples like dairy, cereals, fruits, and vegetables all increased.

• Egg prices fell sharply (-8.2%), offering rare relief.

• Restaurant prices continue to climb, especially for full-service meals.

For many households, food remains one of the most noticeable inflation pressures.

Energy: Mixed Signals

Energy prices edged higher overall, but the details matter:

• Energy index: +0.3% in December, +2.3% over the year

• Gasoline: -0.5% in December, -3.4% year over year

• Electricity: +6.7% year over year

• Natural gas: +10.8% year over year

Drivers benefited from cheaper gasoline, but utility bills—especially heating—continued to rise.

Services Inflation Remains Firm

Core services showed broad-based increases:

• Medical care: +0.4% in December, +3.2% year over year

• Recreation: +1.2% in December (largest monthly jump on record)

• Airline fares: +5.2% in December

• Personal care & education: continued steady increases

On the flip side:

• Used cars and trucks: -1.1% in December

• Communication services: -1.9%

What This Means for 2026

As 2025 closed:

• Inflation appears stable, not surging—but not fully subdued.

• Housing and services remain the key inflation risks.

• Goods inflation (like vehicles and gasoline) continues to ease.

With the January 2026 CPI report scheduled for February 11, 2026, policymakers and consumers alike will be watching closely to see whether inflation finally drifts closer to the Federal Reserve’s long-term comfort zone.

Bottom Line

Inflation ended 2025 steady but uneven. While energy and goods offered some relief, everyday essentials—housing, food, and services—kept upward pressure on household budgets. The battle against inflation isn’t over, but it’s no longer spiraling out of control either.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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12 pips, US500 6 points, BTC 678 points potential profit in 43 seconds on 18 December 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD, US500 and BTC on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 12 pips and US500 moved 6 points and BTC 678 points on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data on 18 December 2025.

EURUSD (12 points)

US500 (6 points)

BTC (678 points)

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Unemployment Claims, CPI, and the Macro Signal Going into 2026
A more technical read on the December 18, 2025 UI & CPI releases

The December 18, 2025 data dump gives us a fairly coherent macro picture:

• Labor market: still tight by historical standards, with some sectoral and regional softening but no broad deterioration.

• Inflation: headline and core running in the high-2% range, drifting down from 3%, with housing and services still doing most of the work on the “sticky” side.

Below is a more policy-wonk breakdown of what these releases are actually saying.

1. Labor Market: Claims Still at “Expansion” Levels

1.1 Initial claims: well within “normal” range

• Initial claims (SA), week ending Dec 13:

  • 224k (-13k w/w from a revised 237k).

  • 4-week moving average: 217.5k (+0.5k).

In a labor force north of 165–170 million, claims in the low 200k range are typically associated with continuing expansion, not recession onset. This is consistent with past cycles where recessionary conditions usually show up with claims closer to 300k+ and/or a persistently rising 4-week average.

The November 29 print at 192k now looks like a bit of an outlier to the low side, and the December 6 spike to 237k looks like noise rather than the start of a trend.

1.2 Continued claims and IUR: mild firming, but no spike

• Insured unemployment (SA), week ending Dec 6:

  • 1.897 million (+67k w/w from a revised 1.83 million).

  • Insured unemployment rate (IUR): 1.2% (unchanged).

  • 4-week average: 1.902 million (-14k).

Insured unemployment is oscillating in a pretty narrow band: 1.83–1.95 million over much of 2025. The fact that the IUR is flat at 1.2% while levels move around is a reminder that this is mostly noise around a tight steady state, not a structural shift.

You also see divergence between SA and NSA:

• NSA insured unemployment: 1.88 million (week of Dec 6), down 75k w/w, rate down from 1.3% to 1.2%.

• Seasonal factors had expected a larger decline, so relative to expectations, the labor market is slightly weaker than the NSA drop alone suggests—but not dramatically.

1.3 State-level patterns: sectoral and regional pockets

Highest insured unemployment rates (week ending Nov 29):

• Washington 2.5%, New Jersey 2.4%, California 2.3%, Minnesota 2.2%, Massachusetts 2.1%, and Puerto Rico / Rhode Island 2.0%, with Alaska, Oregon 1.9% and Nevada, New York 1.8% close behind.

This is a familiar pattern: elevated IUR in states with:

• Higher exposure to tech / services / high-wage sectors (CA, WA, MA).

• Historically higher baseline UI recipiency rates and more generous programs (NJ, RI).

• Structural or cyclical sectoral exposure (e.g., construction and logistics on the West Coast).

For the week ending Dec 6, the largest NSA increases in initial claims were:

• CA +14,258

• IL +11,074

• NY +10,346

• TX +8,206

• GA +6,333

State comments attribute this largely to layoffs in construction, manufacturing, transportation/warehousing, and admin/support/waste management plus some health care and accommodation/food services.

Policy-relevant point: These look like sectoral adjustments, not broad-based, demand-driven layoffs. Construction and manufacturing are classic late-cycle cyclicals; seeing choppiness here doesn’t, on its own, scream “recession.”

1.4 Federal programs and total UI usage

On a not-seasonally adjusted basis:

• Total continued weeks claimed in all programs, week ending Nov 29:

  • 1,993,823 (up 262,500 w/w; versus 1,960,319 a year earlier).

• Extended Benefits (EB) is basically inactive:

  • Only 9 continued weeks claimed, and no state is triggered “on” EB.

• STC/workshare: ~22.7k continued weeks, slightly below the prior year’s 23.2k.

From a macro/financial-stability lens, the fact that EB is not triggered anywhere is a strong indicator that labor market weakness is not yet systemic.

2. Inflation: A Controlled Downshift toward 2–3%

2.1 Headline vs. core

For November 2025 (12-month changes):

• All items CPI-U: +2.7% (down from +3.0% for 12 months ending September).

• Core CPI (all items less food and energy): +2.6%.

From September to November (2-month SA changes, because October is missing):

• Headline CPI: +0.2% total over 2 months.

• Core CPI: +0.2% over the same period.

• Shelter: +0.2% over 2 months.

• Energy: +1.1%, food: +0.1% (both over 2 months).

If you roughly annualize that 2-month +0.2% move, you’re getting something in the ballpark of 1–2% annualized, i.e., softer than the 12-month headline figure. You don’t want to over-interpret two months (especially with a measurement gap), but the direction is clearly disinflationary.

2.2 Shutdown-related measurement caveat

BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations, and could only retroactively acquire most non-survey data.

Implications:

• Standard month-over-month time-series analysis is noisier than usual.

• The 2-month percent changes (September–November) are a workaround, not a model change.

• 12-month figures (e.g., +2.7% headline, +2.6% core) still serve as the main anchor for trend inflation.

For policy analysis, you basically discount very fine-grained inferences about October but still treat the broader trajectory as valid.

2.3 Decomposing headline inflation

Food (12-month changes):

• Food overall: +2.6%

  • Food at home: +1.9%

    • Meats/poultry/fish/eggs: +4.7%

    • Nonalcoholic beverages: +4.3%

    • Cereals/bakery: +1.9%

    • Fruits/vegetables: +0.1%

    • Dairy and related products: -1.6%

  • Food away from home: +3.7%

    • Full-service meals: +4.3%

    • Limited service: +3.0%

Interpretation:

• Grocery inflation is sub-3% and clustered mostly around protein and beverages.

• Restaurant inflation remains notably hotter than food-at-home, reflecting labor and overhead costs—a classic “services stickiness” story.

Energy (12-month changes):

• Energy overall: +4.2%

  • Gasoline: +0.9%

  • Fuel oil: +11.3%

  • Electricity: +6.9%

  • Utility (piped) gas: +9.1%

So energy is still a positive contributor, but the gasoline component is comparatively mild; the bigger story is household energy (utilities and fuel oil), both of which have direct cost-of-living and political salience.

Core components (12-month):

• Core CPI: +2.6%

  • Shelter: +3.0%

  • Services less energy: +3.0%

  • Used cars and trucks: +3.6%

  • Household furnishings/operations: +4.6%

  • Medical care services: +3.3%

This is a services-heavy inflation profile with goods not doing much damage except in a handful of categories (used vehicles, furnishings). The shelter component is still running above 2%, but at levels much closer to pre-pandemic “normal high” than the 6–8% rates seen in the earlier inflation spike.

3. Policy Implications

3.1 Monetary policy: This is what “orderly disinflation” looks like

From a central bank perspective, this combination is about as close as you get to “soft landing” conditions:

• Inflation has drifted down from 3.0% to 2.7%, with core at 2.6%, i.e., slightly above typical 2% targets but trending down.

• Labor market is still tight: low initial claims, low insured unemployment, no EB triggers, and only modest increases in continued claims.

Key angles for policymakers:

1. Output gap / NAIRU context

   • Claims and IUR at these levels are not consistent with a large positive unemployment gap. Labor markets still appear close to or slightly above most estimates of NAIRU.

   • Yet, inflation is not accelerating; it’s easing, which reinforces the idea that the post-pandemic inflation burst may have been driven more by supply shocks and sectoral imbalances than by persistent overheating alone.

2. Wage-price dynamics

   • With services inflation still around 3% and restaurant prices up 3–4% YoY, underlying wage growth is likely still above 2–2.5%, but not clearly incompatible with a medium-term glide path to 2%.

   • The Fed will view the moderation in goods inflation and slowing shelter inflation as evidence that pass-through from earlier cost shocks is fading.

3. Risk balance for rate decisions

   • Data like this tends to lower the urgency of further tightening.

   • It does not yet justify aggressive easing, given that core is still above target and services/shelter remain sticky.

   • Translation: it’s the kind of setup that supports a “hold for longer, cut cautiously later” stance rather than “hike again” or “slash now.”

3.2 Fiscal & labor-market policy: No crisis, but some micro hot spots

From a fiscal / labor-programs lens:

• No sign of a UI-driven emergency:

  • EB is off everywhere.

  • Total UI usage is up only modestly year-over-year.

• Sectoral and regional shocks are present:

  • Concentrated in construction, manufacturing, transportation/warehousing, and some services.

  • These are classic cases where targeted adjustment assistance, retraining, or infrastructure/green capex could absorb displaced workers rather than broad UI expansions.

The high IUR in states like WA, CA, NJ, MA, and OR suggests watching:

• Tech and high-skill services exposure.

• Local housing and cost-of-living issues that interact with labor mobility.

But nothing in the data screams “we’re about to blow through automatic stabilizers and need emergency discretionary intervention.”

3.3 Distributional and political economy angles

• Shelter and utilities are still rising faster than headline, which hits renters and lower-income households hardest.

• Food-at-home inflation is manageable, but restaurant prices remain elevated—visible to households and politically salient.

• The shutdown-driven data gaps will likely become part of the “governance risk” discussion: if recurring shutdowns degrade data quality, it complicates real-time macro management.

4. How to Read This Going Forward

If you’re thinking about these releases in a policy-wonk framework, a few takeaways:

• Trend inflation: High-2% and drifting down, not stuck in a 4–5% range.

• Labor market: Still tight, but with normal late-cycle churn concentrated in cyclical sectors.

• Policy stance: Data-dependent central bank can credibly stay on hold, lean dovish later if this disinflation trend persists, without immediate pressure to either re-tighten or pivot hard.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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35 pips potential profit in 225 seconds on 25 September 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 35 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 25 September 2025.

USDJPY (22 pips)

EURUSD (13 points)

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U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 218,000 as Labor Market Holds Steady

The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience last week, with unemployment insurance claims trending lower and insured unemployment remaining stable, according to the latest report from the Department of Labor.

Key Highlights from the Week Ending September 20, 2025

• Initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) fell to 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s revised level of 232,000.

• The four-week moving average eased to 237,500, its lowest in over a month.

• Insured unemployment—a measure of continued claims—stood at 1.93 million for the week ending September 13, virtually unchanged from the prior week.

• The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, reflecting a tight labor market.

On an unadjusted basis, actual initial claims totaled 180,611, a decline of 14,822 (–7.6%) from the previous week. Seasonal factors had expected only a modest dip, underscoring stronger-than-expected labor demand.

State-Level Trends

Some states saw notable swings in claims:

• Increases:

  • New York (+1,482) – layoffs in construction, healthcare, and professional services

  • South Carolina (+1,220) – no comment provided

• Decreases:

  • Texas (–4,917)

  • Connecticut (–4,540)

  • Michigan (–3,944), driven by fewer manufacturing layoffs

  • Illinois (–1,153)

  • California (–1,139)

The highest insured unemployment rates were recorded in New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.0%), Connecticut (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%).

Federal and Special Program Activity

• Claims filed by former federal civilian employees rose slightly to 635, while newly discharged veterans filed 420 claims.

• Continued weeks claimed under all programs for the week ending September 6 totaled 1.79 million, down from 1.83 million the prior week.

• No state triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program.

What It Means

With initial claims trending lower and insured unemployment stable, the labor market remains resilient despite pockets of weakness in certain industries and states. The steady insured unemployment rate at 1.3% indicates that while layoffs occur, most workers are finding jobs relatively quickly.

Barring major shocks, the labor market appears well-positioned heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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16 pips potential profit in 11 seconds on 18 September 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 18 September 2025.

USDJPY (9 pips)

EURUSD (7 points)

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U.S. Jobless Claims Fall Sharply, Signaling Steady Labor Market

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that new unemployment insurance claims fell sharply in the latest week, underscoring resilience in the labor market despite recent fluctuations.

For the week ending September 13, 2025, the number of seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decline of 33,000 from the prior week’s revised total of 264,000. This marks the lowest level in several weeks and comes as a positive sign following recent increases.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, slipped to 240,000, down by 750 from the previous week.

Insured Unemployment Stable at 1.3%

The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits—known as insured unemployment—stood at 1.92 million for the week ending September 6, down 7,000 from the previous week. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, suggesting relatively stable conditions for workers who remain on benefits.

The four-week moving average of continued claims also eased slightly, falling to 1.93 million.

State-Level Highlights

The latest data showed mixed patterns across states:

• Largest increases in claims (week ending Sept. 6):

  • Texas (+15,346) — layoffs across multiple industries, including wholesale trade, health care, and manufacturing.

  • Michigan (+3,018) — layoffs in manufacturing.

  • Connecticut (+1,454).

• Largest decreases in claims:

  • New York (-3,623) — fewer layoffs in transportation, health care, and food services.

  • Tennessee (-2,994).

  • California (-1,702).

States with the highest insured unemployment rates included New Jersey (2.7%), Rhode Island (2.1%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%).

A Look at Unadjusted Claims

On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 194,478, down about 10,000 from the previous week and slightly above the 186,835 recorded a year earlier. Insured unemployment (unadjusted) was 1.75 million, down nearly 51,000 week over week.

What This Means

While claims can be volatile from week to week, the decline in new filings suggests that layoffs remain relatively low compared with historical norms. Continued claims are holding steady, signaling that most displaced workers are still finding jobs without long delays.

The data continue to paint a picture of a labor market that is cooling modestly but remains fundamentally strong. Analysts will be watching in the coming weeks to see if the dip in claims reflects a sustained trend or a temporary correction after the early-September spike.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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64 pips and US500 14 points potential profit in 58 seconds on 11 September 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 64 pips and US500 moved 14 points on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data on 11 September 2025.

USDJPY (39 pips)

EURUSD (25 points)

US500 (14 points)

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US Economy Watch: Claims Jump to 263K, CPI Re-Accelerates to 2.9% YoY

Date: September 11, 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET releases)
Sources: U.S. Department of Labor (weekly jobless claims) & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI)

1) Labor market: initial claims pop to a 4-year high

• Initial jobless claims (SA): 263,000 for the week ending Sept. 6, up 27,000 from the prior week’s revised 236,000.

  • This is the highest level since Oct. 23, 2021 (268,000).

• 4-week moving average: 240,500 (+9,750), signaling a clear uptrend beyond weekly noise.

• Continuing claims (SA): 1.939 million for the week ending Aug. 30, unchanged; insured unemployment rate steady at 1.3%.

Unadjusted detail (signals beneath the seasonal factors):

• Initial claims (NSA): 204,581, up 7,869 week over week. Seasonal factors had expected a decrease, so the upside surprised.

• Continuing claims (NSA): 1,814,469, down 77,729 from the prior week.

State color:

• Biggest weekly increases in initial claims (NSA) for the week ending Aug. 30: Tennessee (+2,870; manufacturing layoffs), Connecticut (+2,270), New York (+1,683; transportation/warehousing, construction, arts & recreation), Illinois (+1,331; manufacturing, wholesale, retail, construction).

• Biggest decline: Kentucky (-2,833; manufacturing layoffs).

• Highest insured unemployment rates (week ending Aug. 23): New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.1%); California, Connecticut, Minnesota, Puerto Rico (2.0%).

How to read it:
The spike to 263K breaks the prior 220–240K range and lifts the trend (4-week avg 240.5K). Continuing claims are flat, so we’re not yet seeing broad, persistent job loss, but leading indicators are flashing cooling momentum.

2) Inflation: August CPI firmed, led by shelter and energy

• Headline CPI (SA): +0.4% m/m in August (vs. +0.2% in July).
  Year-over-year: +2.9%, up from 2.7%.

• Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +0.3% m/m (same as July); +3.1% YoY.

• Key drivers (m/m):

  • Shelter: +0.4% (largest contributor).

  • Food: +0.5%; food at home +0.6% (broad-based, with fruits & vegetables +1.6%; beef +2.7%).

  • Energy: +0.7% with gasoline +1.9%.

  • Mixed core components: airline fares +5.9%, used vehicles +1.0%, new vehicles +0.3%; medical care -0.2%.

12-month lens:

• Headline: 2.9%; Core: 3.1%.

• Food: +3.2% YoY; Energy: +0.2% YoY with a split—gasoline -6.6% vs. electricity +6.2% and natural gas +13.8%.

• Shelter: +3.6% YoY (still sticky).

What it means:
Inflation progress stalled modestly in August: headline ticked up and core stayed firm at 0.3% m/m. The stickiness in shelter plus rebounds in travel/vehicles kept disinflation from accelerating.

3) The combined picture: cooling jobs momentum + sticky core

• A higher claims print alongside firmer CPI complicates the near-term policy read: labor is loosening at the margin, but price pressures—particularly in shelter and select services—remain not-quite-tame.

• Markets and policymakers will watch whether claims stay above ~250K and whether core CPI can downshift below 0.2–0.25% m/m in coming months.

4) Fast facts & charts (text version)

• Initial claims: 263K (highest since Oct. 2021)

• 4-wk avg: 240.5K

• Continuing claims (SA): 1.939M; IUR: 1.3%

• CPI (Aug): +0.4% m/m, 2.9% YoY

• Core CPI: +0.3% m/m, 3.1% YoY

• Big movers: Shelter +0.4% m/m; Food at home +0.6%; Gasoline +1.9%; Airline fares +5.9%

• State hotspot: TN manufacturing layoffs; CT, NY, IL saw sizable increases in new claims

5) What to watch next

• Next CPI: Oct. 15, 2025 (Wed), 8:30 a.m. ET (September data)

• Weekly claims: Every Thursday, 8:30 a.m. ET—watch for confirmation of the step-up above 250K.

• Shelter measures: Any moderation here would meaningfully aid core disinflation.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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14 pips, BTC 674 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 10 September 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and BTC on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips and BTC moved 674 points on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 10 September 2025.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

BTC (674 points)

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U.S. Producer Prices Slip in August; Core PPI (Ex-Food & Energy) Down 0.1%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline PPI for final demand fell 0.1% in August 2025. Over the past year, producer prices are up 2.6%.

Key takeaways

• Core PPI (ex food & energy) fell 0.1% m/m and is up 2.8% y/y.

• Final demand services declined 0.2% m/m, led by a 1.7% drop in trade service margins (wholesalers/retailers).

• Final demand goods edged +0.1% m/m: core goods rose +0.3%, foods +0.1%, while energy -0.4%.

• Within services, margins for machinery & vehicle wholesaling -3.9%, while portfolio management +2.0% and freight +0.9% rose.

• Intermediate stages were mixed: processed goods +0.4%, unprocessed goods -1.1%, and services +0.3%.

What’s moving underneath

• Goods firmness came from tobacco (+2.3%), beef, processed poultry, electronics components, and electric power.

• Offsets included utility natural gas (-1.8%), vegetables, eggs, and copper scrap.

• On the pipeline side, stage 4 intermediate demand +0.5% (11th straight rise), while stage 2 -0.2%.

Why this matters

A negative core print (ex food & energy) at -0.1% m/m suggests some cooling in underlying producer-level inflation even as select core goods remain sticky. Combined with softer services margins, August points to easing pipeline pressures, though the y/y pace remains above pre-pandemic norms.

Next up: September PPI arrives October 16, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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