According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 26 pips on US Jobless Claims, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Durable Goods Orders data on 26 June 2025.
USDJPY (19 pips)
EURUSD (7 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
A Mixed Economic Picture: Weekly Jobless Claims Drop, Durable Goods Surge, but GDP Contracts
This week brought a flurry of economic data from key U.S. government agencies, painting a mixed picture of the American economy as it navigates a period of turbulence. From a surprise decline in jobless claims to a dramatic rebound in durable goods orders and a downward revision in GDP, here’s what you need to know.
Jobless Claims Dip Amid Growing Insured Unemployment
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, a decrease of 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average also declined slightly to 245,000, reflecting modest labor market stability.
However, the story takes a turn when we look at continued claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving benefits. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment climbed to 1.974 million in the week ending June 14—the highest level since November 2021. The insured unemployment rate remains at 1.3%, unchanged but notably elevated.
Notably, unadjusted data showed insured unemployment rising by 58,030 to over 1.87 million, with states like California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania reporting the largest volumes of insured unemployed individuals. Meanwhile, layoffs in education, transportation, and hospitality sectors were major contributors to localized surges in initial claims, especially in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Oregon.
Durable Goods Orders Roar Back in May
The Census Bureau delivered a dose of optimism: new orders for manufactured durable goods surged by a staggering 16.4% in May, reaching $343.6 billion. This strong rebound follows a sharp 6.6% decline in April, suggesting a volatile but recovering manufacturing sector.
The increase was led almost entirely by transportation equipment, which jumped 48.3% to $145.4 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders still managed a respectable 0.5% gain, and excluding defense, orders rose 15.5%, underscoring broad-based demand in the private sector.
GDP Revised Down: Economic Contraction in Q1
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised first-quarter real GDP growth down to -0.5%, confirming that the U.S. economy contracted after a 2.4% increase in the previous quarter. This marks a notable deceleration, attributed primarily to:
Increased imports (which subtract from GDP),
Weaker government spending, and
Slower consumer spending, particularly in services like recreation and transportation.
Revised data showed that real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.9%, down from earlier estimates, signaling waning consumer demand. Corporate profits also fell by $90.6 billion, despite being revised upward by $27.5 billion from earlier estimates.
What It All Means
The juxtaposition of falling jobless claims and surging durable goods orders with a contracting GDP highlights the complex and uneven state of the U.S. economy:
The labor market remains resilient on the surface, but underlying weakness is showing up in rising continued claims.
Manufacturing appears to be regaining momentum, driven largely by transportation.
The overall economy contracted, signaling that business activity and consumer strength are faltering.
As the Federal Reserve weighs inflation data against slowing growth, policymakers and market participants alike will need to watch these signals closely in the weeks ahead.
Key Data at a Glance:
Bottom Line: The economy is sending mixed signals. While manufacturing shows vigor and layoffs have slowed, continued joblessness is climbing and GDP is in the red. We may be in for a bumpy ride as the second half of 2025 unfolds.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html, https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits
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