According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 16 July 2025.
USDJPY (11 pips)
EURUSD (5 pips)
US500 (3 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
June 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) Report: Inflation Cools as Prices Hold Steady
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a cooling trend in wholesale inflation for June 2025. Headline PPI — which tracks the average changes in prices received by domestic producers — remained flat (0.0%) in June, signaling a pause in upward pricing pressure following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.3% decrease in April.
Key Highlights:
Final Demand Overview
Overall PPI (Final Demand): 0.0% in June (seasonally adjusted)
12-month change (unadjusted): +2.3%
Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade): 0.0% in June, +2.5% year-over-year
The flat monthly reading reflects a balance between rising goods prices and falling service prices. While final demand goods rose 0.3%, final demand services slipped by 0.1%.
Goods: Energy Lifts Prices
Final demand goods posted their largest monthly rise since February, primarily due to a 0.3% increase in goods excluding food and energy.
Energy prices rose 0.6%, with gasoline and residential electric power both contributing to the gains.
Food prices rose 0.2%, though this was partially offset by a dramatic 21.8% drop in chicken egg prices.
Notable price gains:
Communication equipment: +0.8%
Gasoline
Tree nuts and prepared poultry
Notable price declines:
Chicken eggs: -21.8%
Thermoplastic resins
Natural gas liquids
Services: Softening Demand
Final demand services dropped 0.1%, mainly driven by declines in services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing.
Travel-related services showed weakness:
Traveler accommodations: -4.1%
Airline passenger services: Down
Financial services saw mixed trends:
Portfolio management: +2.2%
Deposit services (partial): Down
Intermediate Demand: Mixed Trends
Processed goods: +0.1% (third monthly gain)
Unprocessed goods: +0.7% (largest increase since January)
Services: -0.1%
Key intermediate commodity trends:
Natural gas to utilities: +12.1%
Slaughter cattle & poultry: Increased
Ungraded chicken eggs: -25.0%
Deposit services (partial): -5.4%
Stage-by-Stage Price Flows
Stage 4 Intermediate Demand: Unchanged (goods +0.2%, services -0.1%)
Stage 3: -0.2% (driven by falling raw material prices)
Stage 2: +0.2% (goods +0.6%, services -0.2%)
Stage 1: -0.1% (services prices falling more than goods rose)
Looking Ahead: Index Changes
Starting with the July 2025 release (due August 14), BLS will:
Discontinue 5 FD-ID indexes
Cease publication of ~350 industry and commodity PPIs
Update sampling for 11 industries, including:
Tobacco manufacturing
Railroad rolling stock
Nursing care facilities
Industrial sand mining
These changes reflect an effort to keep the PPI current with shifts in industry structure, production methods, and product offerings.
Conclusion
The June 2025 PPI report points to stable producer prices, with inflationary pressures easing in the service sector and moderate gains in goods pricing. The flat reading supports the view that upstream inflation is under control, even as certain volatile categories (like energy and food) continue to swing.
As the Federal Reserve monitors these figures closely, this data may reinforce expectations for a pause in rate hikes, keeping the focus on sustaining disinflation while supporting economic stability.
Next PPI Release: August 14, 2025
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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