According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 13 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 10 July 2025.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unemployment Claims Drop Slightly, but Insured Unemployment Hits Highest Level Since 2021

The U.S. labor market saw modest improvement last week, as new unemployment claims dipped slightly. However, underlying data shows signs of increased strain in the system, with insured unemployment rising to levels not seen since late 2021.

Initial Claims Decline, But Remain Elevated

For the week ending July 5, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims dropped to 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 232,000. The 4-week moving average—a more stable measure—fell to 235,500, its lowest level in over a month.

However, the unadjusted figures tell a different story. Actual initial claims filed totaled 240,802, up 10,004 from the previous week. This increase was lower than expected, suggesting less seasonal volatility than anticipated.

Insured Unemployment Rises to Highest Since 2021

While fewer people filed for new claims, ongoing unemployment (those continuing to receive benefits) rose to its highest point in nearly four years:

  • 1,965,000 individuals were receiving insured unemployment benefits for the week ending June 28, up 10,000 from the week before.

  • This marks the highest level since November 13, 2021.

  • The 4-week moving average also climbed to 1,955,250, the highest since November 2021.

Despite the rise, the insured unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) held steady at 1.3%, while the unadjusted rate ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%.

State-Level Trends: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?

Some states saw notable shifts in unemployment activity:

Largest Increases in Initial Claims:

  • New Jersey: +4,684 (due to layoffs in education and public administration)

  • New York: +3,323 (health care, transportation, hospitality)

  • Illinois: +1,840 (manufacturing, retail, logistics)

Largest Decreases:

  • Pennsylvania: -2,910

  • California: -2,822

  • Connecticut: -2,407
    These decreases were primarily attributed to fewer layoffs in industries like transportation, accommodations, and health care.

Highest Insured Unemployment Rates:

  • Puerto Rico: 2.4%

  • Minnesota & New Jersey: 2.3%

  • California & Rhode Island: 2.2%

Federal Program Activity

While most UI activity is state-based, federal claims also shifted slightly:

  • Federal civilian initial claims: 438 (down 15)

  • Veteran initial claims: 388 (up 37)

  • Continued weeks claimed by federal employees and veterans also changed modestly, but remained below pre-pandemic levels.

What Does This Mean?

The data paints a mixed picture: fewer people are entering unemployment, but more are staying on benefits longer—possibly signaling a slower reabsorption into the workforce.

While no states were triggered onto the Extended Benefits (EB) program this week, the sustained rise in continued claims suggests some softening in the labor market.

Bottom Line:
Initial jobless claims are steady, but the rise in ongoing unemployment benefits is worth watching. As seasonal adjustments settle and summer transitions into fall, the labor market may face new pressures.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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