According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 18 September 2025.
USDJPY (9 pips)
EURUSD (7 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall Sharply, Signaling Steady Labor Market
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that new unemployment insurance claims fell sharply in the latest week, underscoring resilience in the labor market despite recent fluctuations.
For the week ending September 13, 2025, the number of seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decline of 33,000 from the prior week’s revised total of 264,000. This marks the lowest level in several weeks and comes as a positive sign following recent increases.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, slipped to 240,000, down by 750 from the previous week.
Insured Unemployment Stable at 1.3%
The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits—known as insured unemployment—stood at 1.92 million for the week ending September 6, down 7,000 from the previous week. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, suggesting relatively stable conditions for workers who remain on benefits.
The four-week moving average of continued claims also eased slightly, falling to 1.93 million.
State-Level Highlights
The latest data showed mixed patterns across states:
Largest increases in claims (week ending Sept. 6):
Texas (+15,346) — layoffs across multiple industries, including wholesale trade, health care, and manufacturing.
Michigan (+3,018) — layoffs in manufacturing.
Connecticut (+1,454).
Largest decreases in claims:
New York (-3,623) — fewer layoffs in transportation, health care, and food services.
Tennessee (-2,994).
California (-1,702).
States with the highest insured unemployment rates included New Jersey (2.7%), Rhode Island (2.1%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%).
A Look at Unadjusted Claims
On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 194,478, down about 10,000 from the previous week and slightly above the 186,835 recorded a year earlier. Insured unemployment (unadjusted) was 1.75 million, down nearly 51,000 week over week.
What This Means
While claims can be volatile from week to week, the decline in new filings suggests that layoffs remain relatively low compared with historical norms. Continued claims are holding steady, signaling that most displaced workers are still finding jobs without long delays.
The data continue to paint a picture of a labor market that is cooling modestly but remains fundamentally strong. Analysts will be watching in the coming weeks to see if the dip in claims reflects a sustained trend or a temporary correction after the early-September spike.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
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