According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 19 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 July 2025.

USDJPY (14 pips)

EURUSD (5 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Jobless Claims Dip Slightly Amid Signs of Steady Labor Market

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report, released today by the U.S. Department of Labor, shows a modest decline in initial jobless claims, signaling a steady—if slightly cooling—labor market.

Key Numbers: Week Ending July 19, 2025

  • Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
    217,000 — down 4,000 from the prior week’s 221,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average:
    224,500 — a decrease of 5,000 from 229,500

  • Insured Unemployment Rate (SA):
    1.3% — unchanged from the previous week

  • Insured Unemployment Total (SA):
    1,955,000 — up by 4,000

Despite the small uptick in continued claims, the four-week moving average for insured unemployment also ticked slightly down, suggesting overall labor market resilience.

Unadjusted Data Highlights

  • Initial Claims (NSA):
    215,792 — a 17.4% drop from the prior week, larger than expected

  • Year-over-Year Comparison:
    Down from 225,839 during the same week last year

  • Unadjusted Insured Unemployment:
    2,016,061 — up 4,568 week-over-week

  • Continued Weeks Claimed Across All Programs:
    2,039,425 — an increase of 113,926 from the prior week

These figures include regular state programs, federal employees, veterans, and other claimants such as those under Workshare arrangements.

Where Claims Rose — and Why

States with Largest Increases in Initial Claims (Week Ending July 12):

State Change Layoff Sectors / Comments
New York +10,001 Transportation, warehousing, public administration, construction
Nevada +4,397 No comment
Texas +2,984 Wholesale trade, health care, administrative & waste services
Georgia +2,793 Manufacturing, health care, administrative & waste services, warehousing
Pennsylvania +1,942 Admin & waste services, transportation, food services, professional/technical
Missouri +1,279 Manufacturing, administrative & waste services, health care
California +1,261 No comment
Arizona +1,193 No comment
Florida +1,147 Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade

These gains reflect layoffs across multiple sectors, notably in public-facing and logistics-heavy industries.

Where Claims Fell

Largest Decreases in Initial Claims:

State Change Comment
Michigan -4,867 Fewer layoffs in manufacturing and management sectors
New Jersey -3,206 No comment
Tennessee -2,574 No comment
Kentucky -1,579 No comment
Iowa -1,385 No comment

Several states, particularly those with manufacturing-heavy economies, saw meaningful declines, potentially indicating production rebounds or stabilized operations.

Federal and Veteran Claims

  • Federal Employees (Initial Claims): 789 — up by 193

  • Veterans (Initial Claims): 302 — down by 101

  • Continued Weeks Claimed (Federal Employees): 7,226 — up by 191

  • Veterans: 4,479 — up by 167

While small in scale, these shifts highlight employment volatility in specific federal and military-related workforce segments.

States With Highest Insured Unemployment Rates (NSA)

State Insured Unemployment Rate
New Jersey2.8%
Rhode Island2.7%
Puerto Rico2.6%
Minnesota2.4%
California2.2%
Massachusetts2.1%
Washington2.1%
District of Columbia2.0%
Oregon1.9%
Pennsylvania1.9%

These regions may face more sustained labor market pressure, especially in urban and service-heavy economies.

Takeaway

The labor market remains relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The decrease in initial claims and an unchanged insured unemployment rate suggest there is no immediate cause for concern. However, sector-specific layoffs and regional disparities point to underlying structural shifts worth monitoring.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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