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USDA Grain Stocks Trigger Sharp Repricing Across Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

September 30, 2026

According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (ZW) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 56 / 32 / 24 ticks (total 112) on USDA Grain Stocks data on 30 September 2026.

1902 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

USDA Grain Stocks Trigger Sharp Repricing Across Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

September 1 U.S. grain inventories delivered materially different supply signals across corn, soybeans and wheat, with the largest deviation from expectations concentrated in corn.

September 30, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA NASS Grain Stocks

The September 2026 USDA Grain Stocks report produced a differentiated response across CBOT corn, wheat and soybean futures as market participants incorporated updated estimates of physical inventories across the three major U.S. grain markets.

USDA reported September 1 corn inventories of 2.095 billion bushels, substantially above pre-release expectations and 35% above the corresponding level one year earlier.

Soybean inventories totaled 315 million bushels, below the cited market average and approximately 3% below September 2025.

All-wheat inventories stood at 1.846 billion bushels, close to the cited average expectation while remaining approximately 14% below the prior-year level.

HAAWKS release-window measurement: CBOT corn futures ZC fell 56 ticks, wheat futures ZW fell 32 ticks, while soybean futures ZS rose 24 ticks following publication of the USDA Grain Stocks data.

Immediate Cross-Grain Market Reaction

Corn — ZC −56 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Wheat — ZW −32 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Soybeans — ZS +24 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

September 1 Stocks vs. Market Expectations

The information content of a scheduled agricultural release depends not only on the absolute inventory level but also on the difference between the published figure and the distribution of expectations immediately before publication.

The pre-release estimates below are from the Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal analyst survey, as reproduced by DTN and Price Futures Group ahead of and following the September 30 release.

Commodity	Survey Average	Survey Range	USDA Actual	Difference vs. Average
Corn	1.924B bu	1.860–2.005B	2.095B bu	+171M bu
Soybeans	323M bu	305–335M	315M bu	−8M bu
All Wheat	1.849B bu	1.790–1.955B	1.846B bu	−3M bu

Estimate source: Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal survey of analysts, reproduced by DTN and Price Futures Group. Survey estimates can differ across data providers and should be identified by source when used in release analysis.

HAAWKS view: the three crops delivered materially different inventory profiles. Corn produced the largest deviation from the cited pre-release distribution, soybean inventories were below the survey average, while wheat stocks were close to the consensus level.

Corn: Stocks Exceed the Entire Survey Range

September 1 U.S. corn inventories totaled 2.095 billion bushels.

That was approximately 171 million bushels above the Dow Jones survey average of 1.924 billion bushels.

More significantly, USDA's estimate exceeded the upper end of the cited 1.860 to 2.005 billion bushel survey range. The published figure was therefore above every estimate contained in that survey.

Total Corn Stocks 2.095B Bushels on September 1

Year-on-Year +35% Versus September 2025

Difference vs. Average +171M Bushels above Dow Jones average

Corn Inventory Detail	Sep. 1, 2026	Sep. 1, 2025	Year-on-Year Change
On-Farm Stocks	787.3M bu	643.2M bu	+22%
Off-Farm Stocks	1.308B bu	908.1M bu	+44%
Total Stocks	2.095B bu	1.551B bu	+35%

The increase was particularly pronounced in off-farm storage. Off-farm corn stocks reached approximately 1.308 billion bushels, 44% above the corresponding level one year earlier.

June through August indicated disappearance was approximately 3.20 billion bushels, compared with about 3.09 billion bushels during the same period in 2025.

Usage therefore increased year over year, but not sufficiently to prevent a substantially larger September 1 inventory position.

Soybeans: Stocks Come In Below Expectations

USDA estimated September 1 soybean inventories at 315 million bushels.

That was approximately 8 million bushels below the Dow Jones survey average of 323 million bushels and within the cited 305 to 335 million bushel estimate range.

Total soybean inventories were also approximately 3% below the year-earlier level.

Total Soybean Stocks 315M Bushels on September 1

Year-on-Year −3% Versus September 2025

Difference vs. Average −8M Bushels below Dow Jones average

Soybean Inventory Detail	Sep. 1, 2026	Sep. 1, 2025	Year-on-Year Change
On-Farm Stocks	90.4M bu	91.5M bu	−1%
Off-Farm Stocks	224.7M bu	233.3M bu	−4%
Total Stocks	315.1M bu	324.8M bu	−3%

June through August indicated soybean disappearance totaled approximately 744 million bushels, compared with roughly 683 million bushels during the comparable period one year earlier.

Wheat Stocks Decline from the Prior Year

USDA reported September 1 all-wheat inventories of 1.846 billion bushels.

The figure was close to the Dow Jones survey average of 1.849 billion bushels and remained within the cited 1.790 to 1.955 billion bushel range.

Relative to September 1, 2025, total wheat inventories were approximately 14% lower.

Total Wheat Stocks 1.846B Bushels on September 1

Year-on-Year −14% Versus September 2025

Difference vs. Average −3M Bushels vs. Dow Jones average

Wheat Inventory Detail	Sep. 1, 2026	Sep. 1, 2025	Year-on-Year Change
On-Farm Stocks	546.5M bu	692.2M bu	−21%
Off-Farm Stocks	1.299B bu	1.442B bu	−10%
Total All-Wheat Stocks	1.846B bu	2.134B bu	−14%

June through August indicated wheat disappearance totaled approximately 608 million bushels, compared with approximately 710 million bushels during the same period one year earlier.

Three Crops, Different Inventory Profiles

Corn Inventories

September 1 stocks reached 2.095 billion bushels, substantially above the Dow Jones survey average and above the upper end of the cited estimate range.

Soybean Inventories

Soybean stocks totaled 315 million bushels, below the cited pre-release average and approximately 3% below the prior-year inventory level.

Wheat Inventories

All-wheat stocks totaled 1.846 billion bushels, close to the pre-release average while substantially below the corresponding level one year earlier.

Cross-Market Repricing

HAAWKS recorded different immediate price responses across all three CBOT contracts as market participants incorporated the updated physical inventory information.

Storage Location Adds Another Layer of Information

Grain Stocks separates inventories held on farms from stocks held in commercial facilities, mills, elevators and other off-farm locations.

That distinction can matter for professional agricultural-market analysis because physical availability, producer selling behavior and regional basis conditions can differ depending on where inventories are located.

Commodity	On-Farm Stocks	Off-Farm Stocks	Total Stocks
Corn	787.3M bu	1.308B bu	2.095B bu
Soybeans	90.4M bu	224.7M bu	315.1M bu
Wheat	546.5M bu	1.299B bu	1.846B bu

Indicated Disappearance Provides Demand Context

Inventory levels describe the quantity of grain remaining at a particular point in time. Indicated disappearance adds another layer by estimating the quantity that moved out of stocks during the quarter.

Commodity	Jun–Aug 2026	Jun–Aug 2025	Direction
Corn	3.20B bu	3.09B bu	Higher
Soybeans	744M bu	683M bu	Higher
Wheat	608M bu	710M bu	Lower

These fields provide a broader view of physical-market activity than the headline stock totals alone and can be useful when reconciling supply-and-demand balances after publication.

Why Grain Stocks Requires Multi-Field Processing

The publication contains considerably more information than three headline inventory totals.

A structured feed can expose inventory totals, storage location, historical comparisons, indicated disappearance and revisions at the field level, allowing each component to be evaluated independently.

Information Set	Relevant Fields	Analytical Function
Total Stocks	Corn, soybeans and wheat	Establishes the point-in-time physical inventory position.
Consensus Comparison	Average, high and low estimates	Measures the deviation between expectations and the official publication.
Storage Location	On-farm and off-farm inventories	Provides additional information about physical availability and inventory distribution.
Indicated Disappearance	Quarterly implied usage	Adds demand-side context to the inventory balance.
Historical Comparison	Current and year-earlier stocks	Places the latest estimate within a broader supply context.

Implications for Event-Driven Commodity Strategies

Consensus Is Part of the Data Set

The official inventory figure alone does not quantify the amount of new information entering the market. A professional event-driven framework also needs the relevant consensus source, estimate range and timestamp.

Consensus Sources Should Be Identified Explicitly

Estimates can differ across surveys and data vendors. This analysis therefore identifies the cited numbers as the Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal analyst survey reproduced by DTN and Price Futures Group rather than presenting them as a universal market consensus.

Each Commodity Requires Independent Parsing

Corn, wheat and soybeans can deliver different statistical signals in the same publication. Systems therefore benefit from processing each commodity and each inventory field separately rather than generating one aggregate grain classification.

Storage Location Matters

On-farm and off-farm inventory changes can contain information about physical availability, producer behavior and commercial supply.

Release Vintage Should Be Preserved

Quantitative research benefits from preserving the exact numbers available at publication rather than relying solely on databases that may contain subsequent revisions.

Tick Movement Is Contract-Specific

The measured ZC, ZW and ZS movements describe contract-specific price changes around publication. Tick values are instrument-specific and should not be treated as standardized financial returns.

Immediate Market Response

HAAWKS measured ZC 56 ticks lower, ZW 32 ticks lower and ZS 24 ticks higher during the immediate response to the USDA Grain Stocks publication.

These measurements isolate the initial repricing around the scheduled data release rather than the direction of each market over the entire trading session.

Subsequent price action can incorporate harvest progress, export demand, weather, positioning, inter-commodity spreads, liquidity and broader market developments.

HAAWKS view: the September Grain Stocks release demonstrates why agricultural market data is best treated as a structured information set rather than a single headline number. Inventory totals, expectations, storage location and implied usage all enter the market at the same publication timestamp.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report produced a differentiated repricing across CBOT agricultural futures.

Corn inventories totaled 2.095 billion bushels, approximately 171 million bushels above the Dow Jones survey average and above the highest estimate in the cited survey range.

Soybean inventories stood at 315 million bushels, approximately 8 million bushels below the cited survey average and around 3% below the year-earlier stock level.

All-wheat inventories totaled 1.846 billion bushels, close to the cited survey average and approximately 14% below September 2025.

HAAWKS measured immediate release-window movements of ZC −56 ticks, ZW −32 ticks and ZS +24 ticks.

For professional market infrastructure, the publication demonstrates the value of processing USDA statistics as structured, machine-readable information. Official values, market expectations, estimate ranges, historical comparisons, storage location and indicated disappearance can all be evaluated as the market incorporates newly published data.

Low-Latency Data. Structured Intelligence. Professional Execution.

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HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency, structured macroeconomic and commodity data covering the United States, Canada and Europe.

The feed supports systematic strategies, professional trading desks and latency-sensitive applications requiring field-level economic and commodity data as official releases become public.

API access is available through infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

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Sources

USDA NASS — Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026
Official source for September 1 corn, soybean and wheat inventories, on-farm and off-farm stocks, indicated disappearance and other Grain Stocks statistics.
DTN — Pre-Report Grain Stocks Estimates, September 28, 2026
Source for the Dow Jones survey averages and ranges used in the pre-release comparison: corn 1.924B bushels, soybeans 323M bushels and wheat 1.849B bushels.
DTN — USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026
Post-release publication reproducing the survey averages, ranges and official USDA Grain Stocks results.
Price Futures Group — Grains Report, September 30, 2026
Additional reproduction of the Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal analyst survey used for the pre-release stock estimates.
HAAWKS internal tick-level market analysis — September 30, 2026
Source for the measured immediate release-window movements: ZC −56 ticks, ZW −32 ticks and ZS +24 ticks.

Built for traders who compete on speed. HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data via API infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Explore the feed, share your feedback, or contact us to request a free trial for financial institutions.

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Comment

September 2026 WASDE: Corn Jumps 52 Ticks, Wheat 32 and Soybeans 28

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis ZC moved 52 ticks, ZW moved 32 ticks and ZS moved 28 ticks (total: 112 ticks) on USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data on 11 September 2026.

1673 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

September WASDE Triggers Fast Grain Moves: Corn +52 Ticks, Wheat +32 and Soybeans +28

USDA cut the U.S. corn crop and tightened corn and soybean balances, while wheat delivered a more mixed global supply picture. CBOT grain futures reacted immediately to the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA WASDE

The September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates produced rapid moves across the major CBOT grain markets as traders processed new USDA forecasts for corn, wheat and soybeans.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 52-tick rise in corn futures (ZC), a 32-tick rise in wheat futures (ZW) and a 28-tick rise in soybean futures (ZS) following the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

The report contained very different signals across the three crops. Corn supplies tightened substantially compared with USDA's August projections. Soybean production increased, but stronger export demand reduced projected ending stocks. U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser.

HAAWKS first read: the initial futures reaction was higher across all three contracts, but the WASDE was not uniformly bullish relative to trade expectations. This is an important distinction for professional news traders: month-to-month USDA revisions and surprise versus consensus are two different signals.

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

CBOT Corn — ZC +52 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Wheat — ZW +32 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Soybeans — ZS +28 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Corn contained the clearest month-over-month tightening in the September report.

USDA reduced the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre, from 180.7 to 178.5 bpa.

Production was cut by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion bushels.

With lower beginning stocks and smaller production only partly offset by reduced feed demand, projected U.S. ending stocks fell from 1.653 billion to 1.567 billion bushels.

U.S. Corn	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	180.7 bpa	178.1 bpa	178.5 bpa	Large cut vs. August, but slightly above consensus.
Production	16.013B bu	15.768B bu	15.800B bu	213M-bushel USDA cut, but slightly above the trade average.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	1.653B bu	1.533B bu	1.567B bu	Tighter month over month, though not as tight as expected.
Season-Average Farm Price	$4.50/bu	—	$4.80/bu	USDA raised the price forecast by $0.30.

Corn takeaway: the balance sheet tightened substantially compared with August, which was supportive, but the headline yield, production and ending stocks figures were all slightly above pre-report trade averages. For a news trader, that makes the release more nuanced than simply calling the corn figures a bullish surprise.

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Soybeans delivered a mixed supply-and-demand signal.

USDA increased the soybean yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre and raised production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion bushels.

That increase in supply was more than absorbed by stronger demand. USDA raised projected soybean exports by 25 million bushels to approximately 1.685 billion bushels.

As a result, projected ending stocks actually declined from 320 million to 310 million bushels.

U.S. Soybeans	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	52.7 bpa	52.5 bpa	52.8 bpa	Higher than both August and the trade average.
Production	4.519B bu	4.492B bu	4.535B bu	Larger crop than traders expected.
Exports	1.660B bu	—	1.685B bu	USDA raised exports by 25M bushels.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	320M bu	289M bu	310M bu	Lower than August, but above the trade average.
Season-Average Farm Price	$11.40/bu	—	$12.00/bu	USDA raised its price projection by $0.60.

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Wheat was arguably the most interesting market response because the underlying WASDE changes were less supportive than the immediate 32-tick upward move might suggest.

USDA left aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use unchanged. Production remained at 1.531 billion bushels and ending stocks remained at 717 million bushels.

USDA did make changes within wheat classes. White wheat exports were raised by 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter exports were reduced by 15 million and Hard Red Spring exports by 5 million.

The season-average wheat price was increased by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel.

Globally, however, wheat supplies increased substantially. USDA raised production forecasts for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, while world ending stocks increased to approximately 276.3 million metric tons.

Wheat Measure	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
U.S. Production	1.531B bu	—	1.531B bu	Unchanged.
U.S. Ending Stocks	717M bu	720M bu	717M bu	Slightly below the average trade estimate.
World Ending Stocks	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	The clearest bearish supply surprise among the three crops.
U.S. Farm Price	$6.20/bu	—	$6.40/bu	Raised by $0.20.

Wheat takeaway: the immediate 32-tick ZW rally should not be interpreted as proof that the WASDE itself was fundamentally bullish for wheat. Global wheat supplies and ending stocks increased, while the U.S. balance was essentially unchanged. Positioning, order flow and the interaction of multiple USDA data points can matter during the first seconds after a major agricultural release.

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

The global balance sheets provided an important counterweight to the tighter U.S. corn and soybean figures.

2026/27 Global Ending Stocks	August USDA	Trade Estimate	September USDA	Signal vs. Consensus
Corn	274.7 MMT	about 271.9 MMT	272.1 MMT	Much tighter vs. August, but slightly above expectations.
Soybeans	124.2 MMT	about 123.1 MMT	124.0 MMT	Slightly tighter month over month, but above consensus.
Wheat	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	Significantly above expectations.

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

WASDE is not one number. Yield, production, exports, domestic use, ending stocks, global stocks and price forecasts arrive together. Different trading models may assign different weights to each field.

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Corn production fell by 213M bushels from USDA's August estimate, while U.S. corn ending stocks declined by 86M bushels. Those are substantial directional changes even though the final figures were slightly above trade consensus.

Consensus Matters Too

Professional traders also compare the published figures with pre-report expectations. A number can tighten relative to last month and still be less bullish than traders anticipated.

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Futures prices reflect existing positions as well as fundamentals. Stop orders, hedging flows, spread positions and thin liquidity immediately after a release can amplify short-duration moves.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

The HAAWKS measurements describe the immediate release-window reaction. They should not be confused with the direction of grain futures over the entire trading day.

HAAWKS recorded upward moves of 52 ticks in ZC, 32 ticks in ZW and 28 ticks in ZS following the USDA release.

Later in the session, grain markets reassessed the complete balance sheets. CME noted that corn and soybean futures ultimately finished the week lower, illustrating how an initial data-release move can differ from the subsequent market trend.

News-trader takeaway: release-window trading measures how prices respond when new information first enters the market. Later price action reflects additional interpretation, positioning, liquidity and broader market factors.

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

Unlike a simple one-number economic release, WASDE contains hundreds of interconnected supply-and-demand fields. A professional system needs to identify which numbers changed and which differences matter most.

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

U.S. corn supplies tightened materially while world corn stocks still came in slightly above expectations. Wheat provided an even clearer example: U.S. ending stocks were slightly below the trade average, while world stocks were sharply above it.

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Comparing September with August tells a trader how USDA changed its fundamental outlook. Comparing September with market expectations tells a trader how surprising the new information actually was.

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Receiving the report quickly is valuable, but an automated system must also correctly map the crop, marketing year, country, unit and balance sheet field before acting.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 52-, 32- and 28-tick figures represent historical measured price movement. Actual results depend on market depth, latency, spread, slippage, execution venue, order type and risk management.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 2026 WASDE triggered rapid price movement across all three major CBOT grain contracts monitored by HAAWKS.

HAAWKS measured approximately 52 ticks higher in corn futures, 32 ticks higher in wheat futures and 28 ticks higher in soybeans in the immediate release window.

Corn showed the clearest month-over-month tightening. USDA cut the national yield to 178.5 bpa, lowered production by 213 million bushels and reduced projected ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels.

Soybean production increased to 4.535 billion bushels, but higher exports reduced ending stocks to 310 million bushels.

U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser and world ending stocks rose to roughly 276.3 million metric tons.

The release therefore provides an important lesson for professional news traders: the initial price reaction cannot always be explained by one headline number or even by a simple bullish-versus-bearish label.

Low-latency access to structured USDA data allows trading systems to compare many fields simultaneously — current values, previous estimates, consensus expectations and global balances — while the market is still repricing.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

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HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered via API access in Chicago, New York and London for professional and latency-sensitive news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 11, 2026
Official source for U.S. and world corn, wheat and soybean supply-and-demand forecasts.
USDA — WASDE Report
Official WASDE publication page and release schedule.
Price Futures Group — September 11 Grain Report
Reproduces the pre-report analyst averages and ranges for U.S. production, yield and ending stocks used in this analysis.
DTN — USDA Lowers Corn Yield 2.2 BPA, Slightly Increases Soy Yield
Independent post-release analysis of the September WASDE and Crop Production reports.
CME Group — Corn and Soybean Futures React to Latest WASDE Estimates
Used for broader post-release grain-market context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate market reactions: ZC +52 ticks, ZW +32 ticks and ZS +28 ticks.

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Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points for Agricultural Markets

July 18, 2026

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points

HAAWKS announcement for 40 weekly USDA Export Sales data points covering wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice.

On Thursday, July 16, 2026, HAAWKS expanded its agricultural market coverage with the launch of 40 structured data points from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.

Published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET throughout the year, the report provides one of the most timely official indicators of international demand for U.S. agricultural commodities.

The new HAAWKS dataset covers weekly net export sales for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice, with separate values for the current and next marketing years.

Unlike reports released after agricultural markets have closed, the Weekly Export Sales Report is published while the principal futures contracts are actively trading. This makes speed, accurate normalization, and machine-readable delivery especially important for algorithmic and event-driven market participants.

What HAAWKS Delivers

HAAWKS will disseminate 40 data points covering five major commodity groups and their relevant product classifications.

  
          Commodity
        
          Data Coverage
        
          Wheat

          Various types and classes
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Corn
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Soybeans

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Cotton

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Rice

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year

The individual product and commodity classifications provide more detailed information than a single headline export-sales figure. This allows users to identify differences in demand across crop types, qualities, and delivery periods.

Why Weekly Export Sales Matter

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report provides a current view of overseas demand for U.S. agricultural products.

Strong net sales may indicate improving international demand, increased forward purchasing, or progress toward USDA full-year export projections. Weak sales, cancellations, or net reductions may point to softer demand, changing destination activity, or stronger competition from other exporting countries.

However, the market does not react only to whether sales appear high or low.

The most important signal is frequently the difference between the reported value and what market participants expected before the release.

A weekly corn export-sales figure may be supportive if it exceeds expectations, but the same figure may be disappointing if traders anticipated an even larger result.

For systematic analysis, the core event signal can be expressed as:

Export-sales surprise = reported net sales − expected net sales

The size and direction of that surprise can then be assessed alongside:

The previous reporting week
Recent weekly averages
Seasonal export patterns
Outstanding export commitments
Reported cancellations
Major destination activity
Progress toward USDA export projections
Current and next marketing year allocations

Current and Next Marketing Year Sales

HAAWKS provides separate data points for the current marketing year and the next marketing year.

Current marketing year net sales represent new commitments, adjustments, and cancellations for delivery during the active marketing year. These figures are particularly relevant to near-term demand and the pace required to meet annual export forecasts.

Next marketing year net sales represent forward commitments for delivery after the current marketing year ends. They can provide an early indication of demand for the upcoming crop cycle and may become increasingly important as the current marketing year approaches its conclusion.

Separating the two periods helps traders and analysts distinguish immediate demand from longer-term purchasing activity.

It also prevents a large next-year sale from being interpreted as an equally strong signal for nearby supply and demand conditions.

What Are Net Export Sales?

Net export sales represent newly reported sales after accounting for cancellations, reductions, destination changes, and other adjustments.

A positive number generally indicates that new sales exceeded cancellations and reductions during the reporting period.

A negative number can occur when cancellations or downward adjustments are larger than newly reported sales.

Net sales are therefore not the same as physical exports or shipments. A sale represents a commitment, while an export represents the physical movement of the commodity.

For a complete demand assessment, traders may compare net sales with:

Physical exports
Outstanding sales
Accumulated exports
Destination-level activity
Historical seasonal patterns
USDA annual export forecasts

Released During Active Futures Trading

The report is published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET while major agricultural futures markets are open.

CME grain and oilseed futures, including corn, soybeans, and wheat, continue trading until 8:45 AM ET during the overnight session. Trading then pauses before the main daytime session begins at 9:30 AM ET.

ICE Cotton No. 2 futures are also actively trading at 8:30 AM ET.

This creates two important reaction windows.

  
          Time
        
          Market Event
        
          Relevance
        
          8:30 AM ET
        
          USDA Weekly Export Sales Report released
        
          Immediate data ingestion and event detection
        
          8:30–8:45 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed futures remain open
        
          Initial algorithmic price discovery
        
          8:45–9:30 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed trading pause
        
          Further analysis and order preparation
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          CME daytime session begins
        
          Broader liquidity and potential follow-through
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          Regular U.S. stock and ETF trading begins
        
          Potential reaction in related listed instruments

The 15-minute period between the report release and the end of the overnight CME session is especially relevant for automated traders.

During this window, systems can ingest the new figures, compare them with expectations, identify material surprises, apply risk controls, and generate trading signals while the underlying futures remain tradable.

Directly Relevant Markets

The data is most directly relevant to futures and options linked to the commodities included in the report:

CBOT corn futures and options
CBOT soybean futures and options
CBOT wheat futures and options
KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
CBOT rough rice futures and options

The report may also be relevant to related commodity spreads and processing relationships, including soybean crush components and differences among wheat classes.

The strength of the market reaction depends on more than the headline figure. It can also be affected by the reporting period, destination, size of revisions or cancellations, seasonal demand, existing positioning, liquidity, and whether the result was already anticipated.

Designed for Algorithmic Trading Workflows

Many HAAWKS clients consume market news through automated or algorithmic systems rather than by manually reading and interpreting reports.

For these users, an official report published as a document or web page must first be converted into standardized fields before it can be used reliably.

HAAWKS transforms the USDA release into structured data points designed for systematic consumption.

The dataset can support workflows such as:

Real-time event detection
Automated estimate comparison
Surprise calculation
Commodity and product classification
Current-year and next-year separation
Cancellation and net-reduction detection
Historical event analysis
Quantitative model inputs
Automated alerts
Trading signal generation
Risk-management checks
Dashboard and API integration

Consistent field definitions are particularly important when the same report contains numerous commodities, product types, marketing years, destinations, and adjustments.

By normalizing the data, HAAWKS allows systems to compare each new observation with prior releases without repeatedly interpreting the underlying report structure.

From Release to Market Signal

An algorithmic workflow may process the report in several stages:

Receive the structured HAAWKS data.
Validate the commodity, product type, and marketing year.
Compare the reported figure with the expected value.
Calculate the size and direction of the surprise.
Compare the result with prior weeks and historical ranges.
Apply commodity-specific signal thresholds.
Check liquidity, market conditions, and risk limits.
Generate an alert, analytical output, or trading instruction.

Not every statistical surprise creates a meaningful price move.

A large soybean sales figure, for example, may have limited impact if it was widely expected or if it reflects a previously announced transaction. Conversely, an unexpected cancellation or net reduction may matter even when the absolute weekly figure appears relatively small.

The HAAWKS dataset provides the structured inputs needed for users to make those distinctions within their own models and strategies.

More Than a Headline Figure

The detailed structure of the Weekly Export Sales Report helps users look beyond aggregate demand.

Important questions include:

Which commodity or product class was sold?
Does the sale apply to the current or next marketing year?
Were previous commitments cancelled or reduced?
Which destinations were involved?
Are sales concentrated among one or several buyers?
How does the result compare with the pace needed to meet USDA projections?
Are reported commitments translating into physical exports?
Is one commodity class performing differently from another?

For wheat, cotton, rice, and soybeans, product-level differences can be particularly important. Strong demand for one class or type does not necessarily imply equally strong demand for the broader commodity category.

Expanding HAAWKS Agricultural Coverage

The addition of USDA Weekly Export Sales data strengthens HAAWKS’ coverage of both the demand and supply sides of agricultural markets.

USDA Crop Progress data provides insight into planting, crop development, condition, and harvest activity.

USDA Export Sales data provides insight into international demand, cancellations, and forward purchasing commitments.

Together, the datasets help users monitor how U.S. production conditions interact with global demand throughout the agricultural cycle.

By delivering official USDA information in a clean, structured, and machine-readable format, HAAWKS helps traders and analysts move more efficiently from report publication to systematic market analysis.

For algorithmic participants, that means receiving structured data while the directly relevant futures markets are still trading.

Sources

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Export Sales Reporting Program
Official information about the reporting program and the Thursday 8:30 AM ET release schedule.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Weekly Export Sales
Official weekly reports and downloadable export-sales data.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports
CME Group — Corn Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT corn futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
CME Group — Soybean Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT soybean futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/oilseeds/soybean.html
CME Group — Chicago Wheat Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.html
CME Group — KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Contract information for KC HRW wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/kc-wheat.html
CME Group — Rough Rice Futures
Contract information and trading hours for rough rice futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/rough-rice.html
ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
Official contract specifications and trading hours.
https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Comment

USDA Crop Progress: Market Impact on Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

July 2, 2026

USDA Crop Progress: Immediate and Next-Day Market Impact Across Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

HAAWKS graphic showing USDA Crop Progress market impact across futures, ethanol, ETFs, and agricultural stocks.

Every Monday during the U.S. growing season, the USDA Crop Progress Report gives agricultural markets a fresh read on planting, emergence, crop conditions, and harvest progress.

For traders and analysts, the report is more than an update on field activity. It is a weekly supply-side signal that can influence expectations for yield, production, input costs, and short-term price discovery across directly linked agricultural markets.

At HAAWKS, we are introducing structured weekly Crop Progress data points across major U.S. crops to help market participants analyze those signals faster and more consistently.

What HAAWKS will track

HAAWKS will disseminate 30 weekly data points from the USDA Crop Progress Report, covering six major U.S. crops:

Table 1: HAAWKS Crop Progress Data Coverage
  
        Crop
        Data Points
      
        Corn
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Soybeans
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Cotton
        Planted, squaring, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Rice
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Winter wheat
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Spring wheat
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested

These indicators provide a high-frequency view of crop development and crop health before final yield and production estimates are known.

Why Crop Progress can move markets

The market does not react simply because a Crop Progress number is high or low.

It reacts when the number is different from what traders expected.

A corn crop rated 67% good/excellent may be bullish if the market expected 70%. The same 67% rating may be bearish if the market expected 64%. The important variable is the surprise.

In practice, the reaction framework is straightforward:

Table 2: Crop Progress Surprise and Typical Market Interpretation
  
        Crop Progress Surprise
        Typical Market Interpretation
      
        Better-than-expected good/excellent ratings
        Higher yield potential, usually bearish for futures
      
        Worse-than-expected good/excellent ratings
        Greater production risk, usually bullish for futures
      
        Faster-than-expected planting
        Lower acreage or timing risk, often bearish
      
        Slower-than-expected planting
        Higher acreage or yield risk, often bullish
      
        Faster-than-expected harvest
        More near-term supply availability, often bearish nearby futures
      
        Slower-than-expected harvest
        Delayed supply movement, often supportive nearby futures

The strongest research evidence is in corn and soybeans, where academic work has found that USDA Crop Progress and condition information can affect futures price discovery around the report window. The effect is especially important during the most weather-sensitive periods of the growing season.

Immediate impact: the first tradable window

The USDA Crop Progress Report is released at 4:00 PM ET. That timing matters.

Most directly linked U.S. agricultural futures markets are already closed when the report is published. As a result, the first clean futures reaction usually happens when markets reopen in the evening session.

Table 3: First Direct Reaction Window by Market
  
        Market
        First Direct Reaction Window
      
        Corn futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Soybean futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Wheat futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Rough rice futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Cotton No. 2 futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 9:00 PM ET
      
        Ethanol futures
        Potentially same day, because ethanol futures are generally still open at the 4:00 PM ET release time

This means Crop Progress data is often digested before the evening futures reopen. Traders have time to compare the USDA figures against estimates, prior-week levels, five-year averages, weather forecasts, and crop-stage sensitivity.

Next-day impact

For many users, the most practical impact window is the next trading day.

Tuesday’s session reflects a more complete market response, including overnight futures trading, new analyst commentary, updated weather models, and broader liquidity from U.S. equity and ETF markets.

Useful next-day measures include:

Table 4: Next-Day Market Impact Measures
  
        Metric
        What It Captures
      
        Monday settlement to evening reopen
        First futures repricing opportunity
      
        First 30–60 minutes after reopen
        Immediate futures price discovery
      
        Monday settlement to Tuesday settlement
        Full next-day futures impact
      
        Tuesday ETF open vs. prior close
        Equity-market translation of the futures move
      
        Tuesday stock open vs. prior close
        Operational exposure repricing

This distinction is important for ETFs and stocks. U.S. equities close at 4:00 PM ET, the same time the USDA report is released. While after-hours trading may exist, the cleaner and more liquid equity-market reaction usually occurs the next regular trading day.

Directly linked futures markets

Crop Progress data is most directly relevant for futures tied to the underlying crops.

Table 5: Directly Linked Futures Markets
  
        Crop Progress Data
        Direct Futures Market
      
        Corn
        CBOT corn futures and options
      
        Soybeans
        CBOT soybean futures and options
      
        Winter wheat
        CBOT wheat and KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
      
        Spring wheat
        Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
      
        Cotton
        ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
      
        Rice
        CBOT rough rice futures and options
      
        Corn supply outlook
        CME denatured fuel ethanol futures

The futures impact is usually clearest in corn and soybeans because these markets are highly liquid and because Crop Progress data directly informs expectations around planting success, crop health, yield potential, and harvest timing.

The corn–ethanol connection

Ethanol belongs in the Crop Progress discussion because corn is the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production.

A stronger-than-expected corn crop can reduce concern about corn availability and input costs for ethanol producers. A weaker-than-expected corn crop can raise concern about feedstock costs and pressure ethanol margins.

The connection is not always one-directional. Ethanol prices also depend on gasoline blending economics, energy prices, Renewable Identification Numbers, export demand, operating rates, inventories, and policy. Still, Crop Progress data can directly affect the corn-cost side of the ethanol margin equation.

A simplified framework:

Table 6: Corn Crop Progress and Ethanol Market Relevance
  
        Crop Progress Signal
        Corn Market Effect
        Possible Ethanol-Market Relevance
      
        Better corn condition than expected
        Bearish corn input-cost signal
        May support ethanol margins if ethanol prices hold
      
        Worse corn condition than expected
        Bullish corn input-cost signal
        May pressure ethanol margins
      
        Faster harvest than expected
        More near-term corn availability
        Can ease feedstock availability concerns
      
        Slower harvest than expected
        Delayed corn movement
        Can tighten local supply and basis conditions

For this reason, ethanol futures and ethanol-exposed companies are directly linked to corn Crop Progress data, even if the reaction is filtered through margins rather than through crop price alone.

Directly linked ETFs

For equity-market participants, the cleanest ETF links are futures-based agriculture funds.

Table 7: Directly Linked ETFs
  
        ETF
        Direct Link
      
        CORN
        Corn futures exposure
      
        SOYB
        Soybean futures exposure
      
        WEAT
        Wheat futures exposure
      
        DBA
        Broad agriculture futures basket
      
        TILL
        Futures exposure to corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar

These ETFs are not Crop Progress instruments themselves. Their link comes from the futures they hold or reference. If Crop Progress creates a meaningful move in corn, soybean, or wheat futures, the effect may be reflected in the relevant futures-based ETF during the next ETF trading session.

Directly linked stocks

Stocks are less pure than futures or futures-based ETFs, but several companies have direct operational exposure to corn, ethanol, grain merchandising, or oilseed processing.

Table 8: Directly Linked Stocks
  
        Stock
        Crop Progress Link
      
        Green Plains
        Corn feedstock costs and ethanol crush margins
      
        Alto Ingredients
        Renewable fuels, specialty alcohols, and ethanol-market exposure
      
        The Andersons
        Grain merchandising and ethanol/renewables exposure
      
        Archer-Daniels-Midland
        Corn processing, ethanol, oilseeds, and grain merchandising
      
        Bunge Global
        Oilseed processing, grain origination, and merchandising
      
        Valero Energy
        Ethanol segment exposure, though diluted by larger refining operations

For stocks, the Crop Progress signal is usually indirect at the share-price level. A corn condition surprise may affect ethanol margins or merchandising opportunities, but company-specific news, energy prices, crush margins, balance-sheet factors, and broader equity-market conditions can dominate.

The cleanest stock impact is usually in companies with meaningful ethanol or grain-processing exposure, particularly when the Crop Progress surprise is large enough to change expectations for corn costs, soybean supply, or harvest timing.

Public sources for pre-release estimates

Because markets react to surprises, estimates matter.

The most useful comparison is:

Actual USDA value minus pre-release consensus estimate.

Publicly available estimate sources may include:

Table 9: Public Sources for Pre-Release Estimates
  
        Source Type
        Use
      
        Reuters analyst polls, often republished by agricultural media
        Consensus expectations for planting, harvest, or condition ratings
      
        Pro Farmer
        Pre-report estimate summaries and market commentary
      
        Agriculture.com / Successful Farming
        Reuters-based Crop Progress estimates and report coverage
      
        Farm Progress / Farm Futures
        Analyst expectations and post-report comparisons
      
        Barchart / Brugler commentary
        Estimate references, crop-rating commentary, and condition-index interpretation
      
        DTN / Progressive Farmer
        USDA Crop Progress summaries and analyst context
      
        USDA NASS prior week and five-year average
        Historical baseline, not a consensus estimate

Prior-week values and five-year averages are important context, but they are not the same as market expectations. A number can be above the five-year average and still disappoint traders if expectations were even higher.

How HAAWKS helps

The value of Crop Progress data is highest when it can be used immediately.

HAAWKS structures the weekly USDA Crop Progress release into clean, real-time data points so users can compare the latest report against the previous week, historical benchmarks, and market estimates.

This helps traders, analysts, and agricultural market participants answer the key questions quickly:

Did the USDA number beat or miss expectations?

Was the surprise large enough to matter?

Which futures markets are directly linked?

Could the reaction carry into ethanol, ETFs, or directly exposed ag stocks the next day?

Conclusion

USDA Crop Progress data is one of the most important weekly inputs for U.S. agricultural market analysis during the growing season.

The strongest immediate and next-day impact is typically seen in directly linked futures markets, especially corn and soybeans. The data can also influence ethanol through the corn feedstock channel and may carry into futures-based agriculture ETFs and directly exposed ag stocks during the next equity-market session.

For market participants, the key is not the absolute number. It is the surprise versus expectations, the seasonal timing of the report, and the market’s ability to translate crop progress into supply, yield, and margin expectations.

By delivering structured Crop Progress data, HAAWKS helps users move from raw USDA figures to market-relevant analysis faster.

Sources

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — Crop Progress
Source for the Crop Progress report description, coverage, and weekly release schedule.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
CME Group — Corn Futures Contract Specifications
Source for CME grain futures trading hours, including the evening reopen schedule relevant to corn, soybeans, wheat, and rough rice.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
Source for ICE Cotton No. 2 trading hours.
https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures
CME Group — Denatured Fuel Ethanol Futures FAQ
Source for ethanol futures trading hours and the daily maintenance window.
https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-denatured-fuel-ethanol.html
CME Group — Are Corn and Ethanol Markets Correlated?
Source for the corn–ethanol market connection, including corn as the primary U.S. ethanol input and ethanol’s share of domestic corn disappearance.
https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2024/Are-Corn-and-Ethanol-Markets-Correlated.html
USDA Economic Research Service — Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030
Source for the statement that ethanol manufacturers use about 40% of the U.S. corn crop for ethanol and related co-products.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=105761
Lehecka, G. V. — The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets
Academic source supporting the market impact of USDA Crop Progress and condition information on corn and soybean futures.
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/168261.html
Bethlem et al. — The Impact of the USDA Soybean Crop Condition Reports on Soybean Futures Prices
Academic source supporting next-day soybean futures price reaction to changes in good/excellent soybean crop ratings.
https://www.scielo.br/j/resr/a/vcxYjcBRQYWDd6HL6Vq85WF/?lang=en
Bain and Fortenbery — Impact of Crop Condition Reports on National and Local Wheat Markets
Academic source showing weaker or mixed evidence for wheat crop condition reports compared with corn and soybeans.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-and-applied-economics/article/impact-of-crop-condition-reports-on-national-and-local-wheat-markets/F0BC21D69B41FEE1FF420ADD6FC65431
Teucrium — CORN Fund
Source for futures-based ETF exposure to corn.
https://teucrium.com/corn
Teucrium — SOYB Fund
Source for futures-based ETF exposure to soybeans.
https://teucrium.com/soybeans
Teucrium — WEAT Fund
Source for futures-based ETF exposure to wheat.
https://teucrium.com/weat
Teucrium — TILL Fund
Source for broader futures-based agricultural exposure.
https://teucrium.com/till
Invesco — DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
Source for DBA’s exposure to a rules-based index of agricultural commodity futures.
https://www.invesco.com/us/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-db-agriculture-fund.html
Green Plains Annual Report
Source for Green Plains’ corn feedstock exposure in dry-mill ethanol production.
https://gpreinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Green-Plains-2023-Annual-Report_Web.pdf
ADM — Industrial Ethanol Products
Source for ADM ethanol production from corn feedstock.
https://www.adm.com/en-us/products-services/industrial-biosolutions/products/ethanol/

Comment

116 ticks potential profit on 30 June 2026, analysis on trading corn, wheat and soybeans futures on USDA Grain Stocks and USDA Acreage data

June 30, 2026

According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (ZW) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 28 / 40 / 48 ticks (total 116) on USDA Grain Stocks and USDA Acreage data on 30 June 2026.

1027 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Soybeans (48 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

USDA June Data: Bearish Old-Crop Stocks Meet a New-Crop Acreage Reset

Meta description: USDA’s June 2026 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports give grain traders a fresh setup: heavier old-crop corn, soybean, and wheat stocks, lower corn and wheat acreage, and a larger soybean footprint heading into summer weather risk.

USDA June 2026 grain market infographic showing lower corn and wheat acreage, higher soybean acreage, and larger corn, soybean, and wheat stocks.

The Trade Setup

USDA’s June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports gave traders a classic two-sided summer market: old-crop supplies look heavier, but new-crop acreage introduces fresh risk premium.

The headline acreage numbers were clear. Corn planted area is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Soybean planted area rose 5% to 85.4 million acres. All wheat planted area dropped 6% to 42.7 million acres, while cotton acreage increased 6% to 9.85 million acres. USDA reported larger year-over-year inventories for the three major grain and oilseed contracts. June 1 corn stocks were 5.29 billion bushels, up 14% from last year. Soybean stocks were 1.06 billion bushels, up 5%. Old-crop all wheat stocks were 920 million bushels, up 8%.

For traders, the immediate read is not simply “bearish” or “bullish.” It is more nuanced: nearby supply is comfortable, but the acreage mix changes the sensitivity of new-crop balance sheets to July and August weather.

Corn: Stocks Lean Bearish, Acreage Keeps Weather Premium Alive

Corn gave the market a bearish old-crop signal. USDA’s 5.29 billion bushels of June 1 corn stocks were up 14% year over year. On-farm stocks rose 16%, while off-farm stocks rose 12%. March-May indicated disappearance was 3.74 billion bushels, compared with 3.50 billion during the same quarter last year.

That disappearance number shows demand wimply “bearish” or “bullish.” It is more nuanced: nearby supply is comfortable, but the acreage mix changes the sensitivity of new-crop balance sheets to July and August weather.

Corn: Stocks Lean Bearish, Acreage Keeps Weather Premium Alive

That disappearance number shows demand was better than last year, but not enough to offset the larger supply cushion. The larger on-farm stock figure also matters for basis. If producers remain patient, cash markets may stay supported locally. If futures rally on weather and farmer selling accelerates, basis could soften quickly in surplus regions.

The acreage number complicates the bearish stocks story. Corn planted acreage at 95.3 million acres is down from last year, with harvested-for-grain acreage forecast at 87.4 million acres. USDA also noted that 1.90 million acres of corn were still left to be planted when survey data were collected, and that final planted acreage has a 90% historical range of 93.0 million to 97.7 million acres around the current estimate.

Trader read: Old-crop corn stocks cap nearby rallies, but lower acreage means December corn can still build weather premium quickly if forecasts turn hot and dry. The cleanest trade lens is old-crop pressure versus new-crop weather optionality.

Soybeans: Acreage Expands, But Demand Is the Bullish Detail

Soybeans delivered a larger acreage number, which is naturally bearish for new-crop supply assumptions. USDA estimated soybean planted acreage at 85.4 million acres, up 5% from 2025, with harvested acreage forecast at 84.4 million acres.

But the stocks report was not one-dimensional. June 1 soybean stocks were **1.06 bDecember corn can still build weather premium quickly if forecasts turn hot and dry. The cleanest trade lens is old-crop pressure versus new-crop weather optionality.

Soybeans: Acreage Expands, But Demand Is the Bullish Detail

But the stocks report was not one-dimensional. June 1 soybean stocks were 1.06 billion bushels, up 5% from last year. However, on-farm stocks were down 11%, while off-farm stocks rose 16%. March-May indicated disappearance was also 1.06 billion bushels, up 18% from the same period a year earlier.

That stronger disappearance figure is the key for traders. Expanded acres pressure the new-crop balances been active enough to keep the bull case alive, especially if crush margins, export demand, or weather risk tighten the forward outlook.

USDA also reported 8.05 million soybean acres left to be planted during the survey window, and the final soybean planted acreage estimate has a 90% historical range of 82.8 million to 87.9 million acres around the current estimate.

Trader read: November soybeans may struggle if weather is benign, but demand signals make the market vulnerable to sharp rallies if August weather turns threatening. Soybean spreads may remain especially sensitive to crush demand and export headlines.

Wheat: Lower Acres Versus Larger Stocks

Wheat has the clearest acreage contraction. USDA estimated all wheat planted area at 42.7 million acres, down 6% from 2025. Winter wheat area was 31.5 million acres, down 5%, while other spring wheat fell 6% and Durum acreage dropped 16%.

At the same time, old-crop wheat stocks were not tight. USDA reported 920 million bushels of old-crop all wheat in storage as of June 1, up *ather turns threatening. Soybean spreads may remain especially sensitive to crush demand and export headlines.

Wheat: Lower Acres Versus Larger Stocks

At the same time, old-crop wheat stocks were not tight. USDA reported 920 million bushels of old-crop all wheat in storage as of June 1, up 8% from a year earlier. On-farm stocks were down 4%, but off-farm stocks were up 11%.

For futures, that mix argues for caution chasing rallies that are based only on acreage. Lower acres matter, but higher old-crop stocks reduce urgency unless yield, quality, export demand, or global wheat news adds fuel.

Trader read: Wheat needs a catalyst. Lower acreage supports the structure, but larger inventories make weather and export demand the deciding variables.

Sorghum and Pulses: Smaller Markets, Bigger Percentage Moves

Sorghum was one of the sharper stocks stories. June 1 grain sorghum stocks totaled 66.7 million bushels, down 33% from a year ago. March-May indicated disappearance was 105 million bushels, up 107% from the same period last year.

That is a meaningful tightening signal, even if sorghum does not drive the main board the way corn, soybeans, and wheat do. Regional feed demand, export interest, and relative value against corn could become more important.

Pulse crop stocks also moved sharply. Lentil stocks were up 94%, all chickpea stocks were up 40%, and dry edible pea stocks were up 19% from June 1, 2025.

Trader read: These markets matter most for regional cash trade and specialty-crop pricing, but the percentage changes are too large to ignore.

What Traders Should Watch Next

The June reports shift at, or global wheat news adds fuel.

Trader read: Wheat needs a catalyst. Lower acreage supports the structure, but larger inventories make weather and export demand the deciding variables.

Sorghum and Pulses: Smaller Markets, Bigger Percentage Moves

Pulse crop stocks also moved sharply. Lentil stocks were up 94%, all chickpea stocks were up 40%, and dry edible pea stocks were up 19% from June 1, 2025.

Trader read: These markets matter most for regional cash trade and specialty-crop pricing, but the percentage changes are too large to ignore.

What Traders Should Watch Next

The June reports shift attention to three market drivers.

First, weather now carries more weight for corn and soybeans. Corn acreage is lower, soybean acreage is higher, and both final acreage estimates still have uncertainty because survey data were collected before planting was fully complete.

Second, basis behavior will matter. Larger corn and wheat stocks can pressure cash markets, especially if futures rallies trigger farmer selling. Soybeans are more complicated because total stocks are higher, but on-farm stocks are lower and spring disappearance was strong.

Third, spreads may tell the story before flat price does. Heavy old-crop stocks argue against panic in nearby supply, while new-crop acreage and weather risk create room for volatility farther out the curve.

Bottom Line

USDA’s June numbers are not a directional signal. They are a volatility setup.

Corn carries bearish old-crop stocks but still has new-crop weather risk. Soybeans gained acres, but demand has been strong enough to keep traders alert. Wheat lost acreage, but larger old-crop stocks mean rallies need confirmation from weather, quality, or export demand.

The practical takeaway for traders: respect the supply cushion, but do not ignore the summer risk premium. The market now moves from acreage math to weather execution.

Sources: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795959/grst0626.pdf , https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795961/acrg0626.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks, yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage and weekly USDA Crop Progress.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

HAAWKS Adds Weekly USDA Crop Progress Data for Major U.S. Crops

June 19, 2026

HAAWKS Expands Agricultural Coverage with Weekly USDA Crop Progress Data

HAAWKS announcement graphic for weekly USDA Crop Progress Data covering 30 data points across six major U.S. crops.

HAAWKS is pleased to announce the upcoming introduction and dissemination of new data points from the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report, one of the key reference sources for monitoring the development and condition of major U.S. crops throughout the growing season.

Released every Monday at 4:00 PM ET from April through November, the USDA Crop Progress Report provides timely updates on planting, emergence, crop conditions, and harvesting progress across major agricultural commodities. The next release is scheduled for 22 June 2026.

To support faster analysis and better market visibility, HAAWKS will introduce 30 weekly crop progress data points, covering six major U.S. crops:

Corn
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Soybeans
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Cotton
Planted, squaring, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Rice
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Winter Wheat
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Spring Wheat
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

By making these data points available in a structured and timely format, HAAWKS helps traders, analysts, and agricultural market participants track crop development more efficiently and respond more quickly to changing supply-side conditions.

The addition of USDA Crop Progress data further strengthens HAAWKS’ commitment to delivering high-quality, market-relevant agricultural data that supports informed decision-making across the commodity markets.

Source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress

Comment

40 ticks potential profit on 31 March 2026, analysis on trading soybeans futures on USDA Grain Stocks and USDA Prospective Plantings data

March 31, 2026

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 40 ticks on USDA Grain Stocks and USDA Prospective Plantings data on 31 March 2026.

628 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Soybeans (40 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Grain Markets in 2026: Bigger Stocks, Shifting Acreage, and Weather Risks Ahead

The latest reports from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service paint a complex picture of the U.S. agricultural landscape in early 2026. Grain supplies are generally rising, planting intentions are shifting across key crops, and weather risks are quietly building in the background.

Here’s what it all means for markets, farmers, and global supply.

Grain Stocks: Broad Increase Led by Corn

As of March 1, 2026, U.S. grain inventories show a clear upward trend:

Corn: 9.02 billion bushels (+11% YoY)
Soybeans: 2.10 billion bushels (+10%)
All wheat: 1.30 billion bushels (+5%)

Key takeaway:

Supply is loosening, especially for corn and soybeans.

What’s driving this?

On-farm corn stocks surged 21%, suggesting farmers are holding more grain.
Off-farm corn stocks fell slightly (-2%), indicating slower commercial movement.
Soybeans saw a large increase in off-farm stocks (+16%), hinting at weaker demand or slower exports.

Meanwhile, wheat stocks rose modestly, but with an important twist:

On-farm wheat stocks declined (-3%)
Off-farm stocks increased (+8%)

This suggests wheat is moving into commercial channels more actively than corn.

Demand Signals: Mixed Across Crops

“Disappearance” (a proxy for demand) reveals diverging trends:

Corn demand increased (4.28 vs. 3.93 billion bushels)
Soybean demand slightly declined (-1%)
Wheat demand jumped (+12%)

Interpretation:

Corn demand remains strong (feed, ethanol, exports).
Soybeans may be facing export or crush headwinds.
Wheat demand is tightening supply despite higher stocks.

Smaller Crops Beyond the Big Three

Not all grains followed the same pattern:

Sorghum: +15% stocks (strong growth)
Barley: -10% (tightening supply)
Oats: -3% (slight decline)
Sunflower: +41% (major increase)

These smaller crops often reflect niche demand and regional shifts—but sunflower’s surge stands out as particularly significant.

2026 Planting Intentions: A Strategic Shift

Farmers are adjusting acreage in response to prices, costs, and risk.

Major crops:

Corn: 95.3 million acres (-3%)
Soybeans: 84.7 million acres (+4%)
Wheat: 43.8 million acres (-3%, lowest since 1919)
Cotton: 9.64 million acres (+4%)

What this suggests:

Farmers are rotating away from corn into soybeans
Wheat continues a long-term structural decline
Cotton is regaining attractiveness, likely due to pricing

Why This Matters for Markets

1. Corn: High Supply, Strong Demand

Rising stocks + strong usage = balanced but heavy market
Price pressure possible if demand weakens

2. Soybeans: More Acres, Softer Demand

Increased planting + weaker disappearance = potential oversupply risk

3. Wheat: Lower Acres, Strong Demand

Could tighten later in the year despite current stock increase

Weather: The Hidden Risk Factor

Despite solid supply numbers, weather conditions are raising concerns:

Drought expanded sharply (over 54% of U.S. affected)
Plains and Southern regions saw significant dryness
Low snowpack in the West threatens water availability
Winter wheat conditions deteriorated in key states like Nebraska

Implication:

Even with strong current stocks, 2026 production is far from guaranteed.

The Big Picture

The 2026 outlook can be summarized in three themes:

1. Supply is comfortable—for now

Grain stocks are up across most major crops.

2. Farmers are repositioning

Less corn, more soybeans, and historically low wheat acreage.

3. Weather could change everything

Drought and water risks introduce major uncertainty.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. grain market in 2026 is entering a transitional phase:

Short-term: ample supply and moderate demand
Medium-term: shifting acreage patterns
Wildcard: weather and climate pressures

For traders, policymakers, and farmers alike, the key question is no longer just how much grain we have—but how sustainable production will be going forward.

Source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795839/grst0326.pdf , https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795840/pspl0326.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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200 ticks potential profit on 12 January 2026, analysis on trading soybeans, corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks data

January 12, 2026

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS), corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 200 ticks (80 ticks, 60 ticks and 60 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 12 January 2026.

200 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WASDE January 2026: Big Crops, Rising Stocks, and Mixed Price Signals

The January 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE 667), approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released by the United States Department of Agriculture, paints a clear picture of abundance across much of U.S. and global agriculture. Strong production gains—especially in corn, wheat, soybeans, and select global exporters—are building stocks and keeping a lid on prices, even as demand remains solid in several categories.

Below is a plain-language breakdown of the key takeaways that matter most for producers, merchandisers, and market watchers.

Wheat: Larger Stocks, Softer Prices

U.S. wheat supplies for 2025/26 are modestly higher due to increased beginning stocks reported by National Agricultural Statistics Service. Feed and residual use was cut sharply after weaker-than-expected disappearance in the first quarter, while exports remain unchanged at 900 million bushels.

Ending stocks: 926 million bushels (+25 million)
Season-average farm price: $4.90/bu (down $0.10)

Globally, wheat supplies are expanding as well. Argentina is harvesting a record crop, Russia’s production outlook improved, and world ending stocks climbed to 278.3 million tons. This reinforces a well-supplied global wheat market heading into 2026.

Corn & Coarse Grains: A Record Crop Changes the Tone

Corn is the headline story this month.

U.S. corn production is now estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, the largest on record—surpassing the previous high by a staggering 1.7 billion bushels. Higher yields and a sharp rise in harvested acres drove the increase.

Yield: 186.5 bu/acre
Ending stocks: 2.2 billion bushels
Season-average price: $4.10/bu (up $0.10)

Despite higher stocks, prices nudged higher thanks to strong feed demand. Globally, coarse grain production is also rising, led by China’s record corn crop of 301.2 million tons. World corn stocks now approach 291 million tons, underscoring the scale of supply.

Rice: Tighter U.S. Balance Sheet

Rice stands out as one of the tighter markets in this report.

U.S. rice supplies declined due to lower imports and slightly reduced production, while domestic use surged to a record level—driven entirely by long-grain consumption.

Ending stocks: 49.3 million cwt (down 9%)
All-rice season-average price: $11.80/cwt (up $0.20)

Globally, however, rice remains well supplied. Higher production and stocks in China and Japan pushed world ending stocks up to 190.3 million tons.

Oilseeds: Soybeans Face Global Competition

U.S. oilseed production rose modestly, with soybeans up to 4.3 billion bushels. Crushing demand remains strong, particularly for soybean meal, but exports were reduced as Brazil continues to dominate global trade.

U.S. soybean ending stocks: 350 million bushels
Season-average soybean price: $10.20/bu (down $0.30)

Brazil’s crop outlook improved again, with production raised to 178 million tons on favorable weather. Combined U.S. and Brazilian gains pushed global soybean ending stocks higher, keeping pressure on prices.

Sugar: Slightly Higher U.S. Supplies

U.S. sugar production increased marginally, more than offsetting reduced imports. Ending stocks ticked higher, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio near 16%.

In Mexico, sugar production is up from last year thanks to improved rainfall, but flooding and harvest delays forced a downward revision from last month. Exports to the U.S. remain capped by high U.S. inventories under the Suspension Agreements.

Livestock & Dairy: Production Up, Prices Mixed

Red meat and poultry production for 2025 was revised higher, with gains in pork and beef offsetting lower poultry output. Looking ahead to 2026:

Beef: Higher weights support production despite fewer cattle
Pork: Expansion continues on larger pig crops
Eggs: Lower production weighs on prices
Milk: 2026 output rises on higher production per cow

The all-milk price is now forecast at $18.25/cwt for 2026, reflecting weaker butter and cheese prices despite strong protein demand.

Cotton: Smaller Crop, Firmer Price

U.S. cotton production fell more than 2% due to lower yields in the Delta. Ending stocks declined to 4.2 million bales, tightening the balance sheet.

Season-average farm price: 61 cents/lb (up)

Globally, cotton stocks also fell as production slipped and consumption improved, pushing the world stocks-to-use ratio below 63%.

Grain Stocks: Abundance Confirmed

December 1 grain stocks reinforced the WASDE message:

Corn stocks: +10% year over year
Soybean stocks: +6%
All wheat stocks: +7%

Notably, grain sorghum stocks surged 26%, and most small grains showed higher inventories despite slower disappearance.

Final Thoughts

The January 2026 WASDE confirms a theme of ample supplies and heavy stocks across most major commodities. Corn and soybeans face the strongest headwinds from record production and global competition, while rice and cotton offer relative brightness due to tighter balances. Livestock markets remain demand-supported, but rising production will cap upside potential.

As we move deeper into 2026, weather, export competitiveness, and macroeconomic demand will determine whether these large supplies translate into sustained price pressure—or unexpected volatility.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0126.pdf, https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795726/grst0126.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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96 ticks potential profit on 12 August 2025, analysis on trading corn, wheat and soybeans futures on USDA WASDE data

August 13, 2025

According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (WC) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 96 ticks (28 ticks, 20 ticks, 48 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 12 August 2025.

1495 pips potential performance in 2025 (2024: 4,305)

Soybeans (48 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

August 2025 WASDE Report: Record Crops, Price Shifts, and Global Supply Changes

The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released August 12, 2025, paints a complex picture for the coming marketing year. While some U.S. crops are setting production records, others are tightening in supply, with global market ripples reaching nearly every major commodity. Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways.

Wheat: Slightly Tighter in the U.S., Lower Stocks Worldwide

U.S. Outlook:
- Supplies: Down slightly to 1.927 billion bushels due to reduced harvested area, even as yields tick up to 52.7 bu/acre.
- Use: Domestic use trimmed by 5 million bushels (mainly food), but exports up 25 million thanks to strong sales of Hard Red Winter wheat.
- Ending Stocks: Cut to 869 million bushels.
- Price: Lowered 10 cents to $5.30/bu.
Global Outlook:
- Supplies: Down 2.5 million tons due to lower production in China, Brazil, and Argentina.
- Consumption: Down 1.1 million tons, with feed use weaker in several Asian countries.
- Trade: Slightly higher, led by U.S. exports.
- Ending Stocks: Dropped to 260.1 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16.

Corn & Coarse Grains: Record U.S. Crop, Prices Under Pressure

U.S. Corn:
- Production: A record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion from last month on bigger acreage and a yield forecast of 188.8 bu/acre.
- Use: Domestic use up 545 million bushels, with feed demand surging.
- Exports: Projected record 2.9 billion bushels.
- Ending Stocks: Up to 2.1 billion bushels, highest since 2018/19.
- Price: Lowered 30 cents to $3.90/bu.
Global Coarse Grains:
- Production: Higher overall, but foreign output down in the EU and Serbia from heat/dryness.
- Stocks: Global corn ending stocks up to 282.6 million tons.

Rice: Bigger U.S. Harvest, Global Stocks Ease

U.S. Outlook:
- Production: 208.5 million cwt, higher on acreage despite a yield drop.
- Exports: Up to 97 million cwt, with strong medium/short-grain sales to Japan.
- Ending Stocks: 44.6 million cwt, down 12% year-over-year.
- Price: Higher for California medium/short-grain, overall $14.20/cwt.
Global Outlook:
- Supplies: Slight dip to 728.7 million tons.
- Consumption: Record 542 million tons.
- Ending Stocks: Down to 186.7 million tons.

Oilseeds: U.S. Soybeans Tighter on Lower Area

U.S. Soybeans:
- Production: 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on smaller acreage despite higher yields (53.6 bu/acre).
- Exports: Cut 40 million bushels on slow early sales.
- Ending Stocks: Down to 290 million bushels.
- Price: Unchanged at $10.10/bu.
Global Soybeans:
- Production: Lower in the U.S. and Serbia.
- Stocks: Down 1.2 million tons to 124.9 million.

Sugar: More U.S. Supply, Higher Stocks

2025/26 U.S. Sugar:
- Production: Higher for both beet and cane sugar, especially in Louisiana.
- Ending Stocks: Up to 2.16 million STRV, boosting the stocks-to-use ratio to 17.75%.

Livestock, Poultry & Dairy: Shifts in Meat Mix, Firm Milk Output

Meat Production:
- Beef & Pork: Lower on reduced slaughter and lighter weights.
- Poultry: Broilers up; turkey down. Eggs slightly lower.
Prices:
- Cattle & Hogs: Higher into 2026.
- Broilers: Lower in the second half of 2025.
- Turkey: Higher on tight red meat supplies.
- Milk: Output forecasts raised; 2025 all-milk price steady at $22.00/cwt.

Cotton: Smaller U.S. Crop Tightens Supplies

Production: Cut to 13.2 million bales, down 1.4 million from July on higher abandonment in the Southwest.
Exports: Down 500,000 bales.
Ending Stocks: Down to 3.6 million bales.
Price: Up to 64¢/lb.
Global: Production, consumption, and trade all down; ending stocks reduced over 3.4 million bales.

The Big Picture

August’s WASDE tells two main stories: record corn production pushing prices down and tightness in wheat, soybeans, cotton, and some livestock products supporting prices. Global weather, shifting trade patterns, and domestic supply surges are setting up a marketing year of both opportunity and volatility.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0825.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

76 ticks potential profit on 11 July 2025, analysis on trading corn, wheat and soybeans futures on USDA WASDE data

July 11, 2025

According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (WC) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 76 ticks (16 ticks, 32 ticks, 28 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 11 July 2025.

1118 pips potential performance in 2025 (2024: 4,305)

Soybeans (28 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

WASDE July 2025: Key Takeaways for U.S. and Global Agricultural Markets

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for July 2025 presents a nuanced picture across key agricultural markets. From changing weather patterns and shifting trade dynamics to biofuel policy and disease-related disruptions, this month’s data reflect a global sector in flux. Here's what producers, analysts, and stakeholders need to know.

Wheat: U.S. Stocks Dip Despite Higher Output

The U.S. wheat outlook shows increased production (1.929 billion bushels) but lower ending stocks (890 million bushels) due to higher exports. Winter wheat production fell, but higher yields helped offset lower harvested area. Despite the drop, ending stocks are still 5% above last year. Prices remain at $5.40/bu, slightly below last year.

Globally, wheat supplies were trimmed due to reductions in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran, with trade falling by 1.3 million tons. Ending stocks are down 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million.

Corn & Coarse Grains: Supply Shrinks, Prices Hold

U.S. corn production is forecast 115 million bushels lower following reduced acreage. Ending stocks fell 90 million bushels, though prices are steady at $4.20/bu. Exports surged to a projected record of 2.8 billion bushels.

Oats and barley see modest increases, while sorghum production is down 25 million bushels.

Globally, coarse grain production dipped by 3.6 million tons. Notable developments include improved Brazil corn yields and reduced barley outlooks for several key producers. Global corn stocks fell 3.2 million tons to 272.1 million.

Rice: U.S. Impacted by Flooding, Prices Rise

Flooding in the Delta—especially Arkansas—cut U.S. rice production to 205 million cwt. With reduced area and lower use, ending stocks dropped 5% to 44.7 million cwt. Season-average prices rose across all types:

All rice: $14.00/cwt
Long grain: $13.00
Medium/short grain: $13.50

Globally, rice supplies were stable, but ending stocks were reduced for China and Burma. World consumption hit a new record at 541.6 million tons, driven by China's increased feed usage.

Oilseeds: Biofuel Demand Boosts U.S. Crush

U.S. soybean production edged lower, but domestic crush was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion. This is driven by booming biofuel demand, bolstered by new EPA mandates and the 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit. Soybean oil use for biofuel is now projected at 15.5 billion pounds, up 23% from the previous 3-year average.

Soybean exports were cut by 70 million bushels, with ending stocks rising to 310 million. Prices reflect these shifts:

Soybeans: $10.10/bu (↓$0.15)
Soybean oil: $0.53/lb (↑$0.07)
Soybean meal: $290/short ton (↓$20)

Globally, soybean production and stocks rose, while exports declined slightly. Brazil remains a dominant supplier.

Livestock, Poultry & Dairy: Mixed Shifts Across Proteins

2025 Highlights

Beef: Production lowered on slower slaughter; imports and exports raised.
Pork: Production and exports both increased.
Broilers: Higher production on increased weights; exports lowered due to competition.
Turkey & Eggs: Lower production and higher prices expected.
Milk: Output raised on cow numbers and productivity.
- All milk price: $22.00/cwt

2026 Outlook

Beef: Production rebound expected (feedlot placements up).
Hogs: Higher slaughter from late-2025 pig crops; prices remain strong.
Eggs & Poultry: Stable production forecasts; egg prices unchanged.
Milk: Continues growth.
- All milk price: $21.65/cwt

Mexico Sugar Trade: Shift in Export Patterns

Mexico’s 2025/26 beginning stocks rose by 27,342 metric tons, driven by lower 2024/25 use and slightly lower production. That same amount is added to 2025/26 exports, but shipments to the U.S. are down by 196,542 MT due to trade constraints. Exports to non-U.S. destinations rose 223,884 MT, indicating a pivot in trade strategy.

Cotton: More Harvested Acres, Bigger U.S. Crop

U.S. cotton production is up 600,000 bales to 14.60 million, with planted and harvested area both increased. However, yield per acre declined slightly. Ending stocks rose to 4.6 million bales, while the upland season-average price holds at 62 cents/lb.

Globally, higher production in China, the U.S., and Mexico drove up ending stocks by 520,000 bales, despite reduced beginning stocks. Consumption is up modestly, while trade expectations declined slightly.

Final Thoughts

The July 2025 WASDE report reveals a global ag sector navigating challenges and opportunities, from climate and disease to energy policy and evolving global trade. For producers and policymakers alike, the shifts in demand for biofuels, protein sources, and staple grains highlight the need for adaptability in a highly dynamic environment.

Stay tuned for future updates as the harvest season unfolds and global markets respond.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0725.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

Blog

Immediate Cross-Grain Market Reaction

September 1 Stocks vs. Market Expectations

Corn: Stocks Exceed the Entire Survey Range

Soybeans: Stocks Come In Below Expectations

Wheat Stocks Decline from the Prior Year

Three Crops, Different Inventory Profiles

Corn Inventories

Soybean Inventories

Wheat Inventories

Cross-Market Repricing

Storage Location Adds Another Layer of Information

Indicated Disappearance Provides Demand Context

Why Grain Stocks Requires Multi-Field Processing

Implications for Event-Driven Commodity Strategies

Consensus Is Part of the Data Set

Consensus Sources Should Be Identified Explicitly

Each Commodity Requires Independent Parsing

Storage Location Matters

Release Vintage Should Be Preserved

Tick Movement Is Contract-Specific

Immediate Market Response

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

Sources

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Consensus Matters Too

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional News Traders

Sources

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points

What HAAWKS Delivers

Why Weekly Export Sales Matter

Current and Next Marketing Year Sales

What Are Net Export Sales?

Released During Active Futures Trading

Directly Relevant Markets

Designed for Algorithmic Trading Workflows

From Release to Market Signal

More Than a Headline Figure

Expanding HAAWKS Agricultural Coverage

Sources

USDA Crop Progress: Immediate and Next-Day Market Impact Across Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

What HAAWKS will track

Table 1: HAAWKS Crop Progress Data Coverage

Why Crop Progress can move markets

Table 2: Crop Progress Surprise and Typical Market Interpretation

Immediate impact: the first tradable window

Table 3: First Direct Reaction Window by Market

Next-day impact

Table 4: Next-Day Market Impact Measures

Directly linked futures markets

Table 5: Directly Linked Futures Markets

The corn–ethanol connection

Table 6: Corn Crop Progress and Ethanol Market Relevance

Directly linked ETFs

Table 7: Directly Linked ETFs

Directly linked stocks

Table 8: Directly Linked Stocks

Public sources for pre-release estimates

Actual USDA value minus pre-release consensus estimate.

Table 9: Public Sources for Pre-Release Estimates

How HAAWKS helps

Did the USDA number beat or miss expectations?

Was the surprise large enough to matter?