According to our analysis soybeans (ZS), corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 200 ticks (80 ticks, 60 ticks and 60 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 12 January 2026.
WASDE January 2026: Big Crops, Rising Stocks, and Mixed Price Signals
The January 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE 667), approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released by the United States Department of Agriculture, paints a clear picture of abundance across much of U.S. and global agriculture. Strong production gains—especially in corn, wheat, soybeans, and select global exporters—are building stocks and keeping a lid on prices, even as demand remains solid in several categories.
Below is a plain-language breakdown of the key takeaways that matter most for producers, merchandisers, and market watchers.
Wheat: Larger Stocks, Softer Prices
U.S. wheat supplies for 2025/26 are modestly higher due to increased beginning stocks reported by National Agricultural Statistics Service. Feed and residual use was cut sharply after weaker-than-expected disappearance in the first quarter, while exports remain unchanged at 900 million bushels.
Ending stocks: 926 million bushels (+25 million)
Season-average farm price: $4.90/bu (down $0.10)
Globally, wheat supplies are expanding as well. Argentina is harvesting a record crop, Russia’s production outlook improved, and world ending stocks climbed to 278.3 million tons. This reinforces a well-supplied global wheat market heading into 2026.
Corn & Coarse Grains: A Record Crop Changes the Tone
Corn is the headline story this month.
U.S. corn production is now estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, the largest on record—surpassing the previous high by a staggering 1.7 billion bushels. Higher yields and a sharp rise in harvested acres drove the increase.
Yield: 186.5 bu/acre
Ending stocks: 2.2 billion bushels
Season-average price: $4.10/bu (up $0.10)
Despite higher stocks, prices nudged higher thanks to strong feed demand. Globally, coarse grain production is also rising, led by China’s record corn crop of 301.2 million tons. World corn stocks now approach 291 million tons, underscoring the scale of supply.
Rice: Tighter U.S. Balance Sheet
Rice stands out as one of the tighter markets in this report.
U.S. rice supplies declined due to lower imports and slightly reduced production, while domestic use surged to a record level—driven entirely by long-grain consumption.
Ending stocks: 49.3 million cwt (down 9%)
All-rice season-average price: $11.80/cwt (up $0.20)
Globally, however, rice remains well supplied. Higher production and stocks in China and Japan pushed world ending stocks up to 190.3 million tons.
Oilseeds: Soybeans Face Global Competition
U.S. oilseed production rose modestly, with soybeans up to 4.3 billion bushels. Crushing demand remains strong, particularly for soybean meal, but exports were reduced as Brazil continues to dominate global trade.
U.S. soybean ending stocks: 350 million bushels
Season-average soybean price: $10.20/bu (down $0.30)
Brazil’s crop outlook improved again, with production raised to 178 million tons on favorable weather. Combined U.S. and Brazilian gains pushed global soybean ending stocks higher, keeping pressure on prices.
Sugar: Slightly Higher U.S. Supplies
U.S. sugar production increased marginally, more than offsetting reduced imports. Ending stocks ticked higher, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio near 16%.
In Mexico, sugar production is up from last year thanks to improved rainfall, but flooding and harvest delays forced a downward revision from last month. Exports to the U.S. remain capped by high U.S. inventories under the Suspension Agreements.
Livestock & Dairy: Production Up, Prices Mixed
Red meat and poultry production for 2025 was revised higher, with gains in pork and beef offsetting lower poultry output. Looking ahead to 2026:
Beef: Higher weights support production despite fewer cattle
Pork: Expansion continues on larger pig crops
Eggs: Lower production weighs on prices
Milk: 2026 output rises on higher production per cow
The all-milk price is now forecast at $18.25/cwt for 2026, reflecting weaker butter and cheese prices despite strong protein demand.
Cotton: Smaller Crop, Firmer Price
U.S. cotton production fell more than 2% due to lower yields in the Delta. Ending stocks declined to 4.2 million bales, tightening the balance sheet.
Season-average farm price: 61 cents/lb (up)
Globally, cotton stocks also fell as production slipped and consumption improved, pushing the world stocks-to-use ratio below 63%.
Grain Stocks: Abundance Confirmed
December 1 grain stocks reinforced the WASDE message:
Corn stocks: +10% year over year
Soybean stocks: +6%
All wheat stocks: +7%
Notably, grain sorghum stocks surged 26%, and most small grains showed higher inventories despite slower disappearance.
Final Thoughts
The January 2026 WASDE confirms a theme of ample supplies and heavy stocks across most major commodities. Corn and soybeans face the strongest headwinds from record production and global competition, while rice and cotton offer relative brightness due to tighter balances. Livestock markets remain demand-supported, but rising production will cap upside potential.
As we move deeper into 2026, weather, export competitiveness, and macroeconomic demand will determine whether these large supplies translate into sustained price pressure—or unexpected volatility.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0126.pdf, https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795726/grst0126.pdf
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