According to our analysis soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 64 ticks on USDA Acreage and USDA Grain Stocks data on 30 June 2025.
Soybeans (64 ticks)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
USDA Grain & Crop Report: June 2025 Shows Mixed Signals for U.S. Agriculture
Released on June 30, 2025, by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the latest report offers a comprehensive look at U.S. grain stocks and planted acreage as of June 1, 2025. The data presents a mixed bag of trends for farmers, traders, and ag stakeholders, reflecting shifts in both supply and demand across key commodities.
Corn Stocks Drop, But Plantings Surge
Corn stocks totaled 4.64 billion bushels, down 7% from a year ago. Notably, on-farm stocks fell 16%, while off-farm stocks actually rose by 6%. Despite lower current supplies, the March–May disappearance (a proxy for usage) increased to 3.50 billion bushels, up from 3.36 billion a year earlier.
But in a significant development, corn planted acreage for 2025 surged to 95.2 million acres—up 5% from last year—making it the third highest corn acreage since 1944. The increase is widespread, with 41 out of 48 reporting states showing higher or unchanged plantings.
Soybeans: Higher Stocks, Lower Acreage
Total soybean stocks are up 4%, reaching 1.01 billion bushels, even as on-farm stocks declined 12%. The off-farm surge of 18% helped lift overall supply. Disappearance during March–May stood at 903 million bushels, a 3% increase from the same time last year.
However, soybean acreage is moving in the opposite direction. Estimated at 83.4 million acres, 2025 plantings are down 4%, with reductions noted in the majority of reporting states.
Wheat Stocks Up Across the Board, But Acreage Slides
Wheat stocks have rebounded, with total stocks at 851 million bushels, up a notable 22% year-over-year. On-farm wheat storage saw a strong 32% increase, while off-farm stocks rose 20%. Yet, the disappearance (or usage) of 386 million bushels is down 2% compared to the previous year.
Despite the rebound in stock levels, total wheat acreage dipped by 1%, estimated at 45.5 million acres. Spring wheat took the biggest hit—down 5%, while Durum wheat saw a 2% increase in plantings.
Other Small Grains & Sorghum
Barley stocks dropped 11% to 69.5 million bushels, largely due to a 28% fall in on-farm holdings.
Oats stocks are down 17%, reflecting both lower on-farm and off-farm storage.
Grain sorghum is the standout: stocks more than doubled to 99.5 million bushels, driven by a 110% increase in off-farm stocks. However, usage is down 10%.
Pulse Crops See Strong Increases
Pulse crop inventories also surged:
Dry edible peas: up 28%
Lentils: up 90%
All chickpeas: up 36%
Large chickpeas: up 47%
Small chickpeas: up 16%
This points to continued momentum in pulse production and storage, possibly tied to growing interest in plant-based foods and export markets.
Cotton Takes a Hit
Cotton is the outlier in terms of planting trends. All cotton acreage for 2025 fell by 10%, estimated at just 10.1 million acres. Both Upland and American Pima varieties saw declines, reflecting market pressures and possibly unfavorable weather or economics.
Key Takeaways
Corn and sorghum show strong planting numbers and/or stock growth, signaling confidence and demand.
Soybeans and cotton may face tighter futures with acreage cuts despite decent stocks.
Wheat’s rebound in stocks is promising, but lower spring wheat acreage may impact future supply.
Pulse crops continue to gain ground, perhaps reflecting broader dietary shifts.
As harvest season approaches, market watchers will keep a close eye on weather conditions, global demand, and policy changes that could further sway the outlook for U.S. agriculture in 2025 and beyond.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j098zb09z/4455bc157/6q184j42c/acrg0625.pdf, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j098zb09z/4455bc157/6q184j42c/acrg0625.pdf
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