According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (WC) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 40 ticks (16 ticks, 20 ticks, 20 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 12 May 2025.

Soybeans (20 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

May 2025 WASDE Report: A Closer Look at Global Agricultural Trends

The May 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivers a comprehensive outlook on global agricultural markets, highlighting key trends in wheat, corn, rice, and oilseeds. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect in the 2025/26 marketing year:

Wheat: U.S. Stocks Rise Amid Global Expansion

The U.S. wheat market is poised for increased supply, higher stocks, and competitive export pressure:

  • U.S. wheat production is projected at 1.921 billion bushels, down 3% from last year due to reduced acreage.

  • Ending stocks rise 10% to 923 million bushels—the highest in six years.

  • Exports drop to 800 million bushels as the U.S. faces tough competition from Russia, the EU, and Argentina.

  • Global wheat production hits a record 808.5 million metric tons with notable gains from India, China, and the EU.

  • Russia remains the top exporter at 45 million tons.

  • The global wheat market is increasingly robust, with consumption and trade both growing.

Corn: Record U.S. Production but Lower Prices

Corn is the standout crop this year, with production and usage reaching all-time highs:

  • U.S. corn production is forecast at a record 15.8 billion bushels.

  • Higher yields (181.0 bu/acre) and expanded acreage push total supplies to 17.3 billion bushels.

  • Exports grow to 2.7 billion bushels as lower prices fuel global demand.

  • Ending stocks jump by 385 million bushels, softening the average farm price to $4.20/bushel.

  • Globally, corn production is set to rise to 1.265 billion tons, but ending stocks decline due to strong consumption, especially in China and Vietnam.

Soybeans & Oilseeds: South America Surges, U.S. Share Shrinks

The soybean sector tells a story of rising global demand and shifting trade balances:

  • U.S. soybean production falls slightly to 4.34 billion bushels, but strong crush demand boosts domestic use.

  • Soybean meal exports gain momentum, while soybean oil exports decline amid global competition.

  • U.S. exports shrink to 1.815 billion bushels, reducing the U.S. share of global exports from 28% to 26%.

  • South America dominates, with Brazil forecast to produce a record 175 million tons.

  • Global soybean production and trade continue to grow, supported by strong demand from China and emerging markets.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. is facing increased competition globally across all major crops.

  • Record supplies are the theme for wheat, corn, rice, and oilseeds.

  • Farm prices are trending lower, especially for corn and rice, due to higher stock levels.

  • China continues to be a major demand driver, particularly in corn and soybeans.

  • South America is strengthening its role as the world’s agricultural powerhouse.

As weather, trade policies, and geopolitical factors continue to evolve, these projections will remain dynamic. But as of now, the 2025/26 marketing year looks to be one of record output, intensifying global competition, and shifting market shares.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0525.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

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