According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (WC) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 76 ticks (16 ticks, 32 ticks, 28 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 11 July 2025.
Soybeans (28 ticks)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
WASDE July 2025: Key Takeaways for U.S. and Global Agricultural Markets
The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for July 2025 presents a nuanced picture across key agricultural markets. From changing weather patterns and shifting trade dynamics to biofuel policy and disease-related disruptions, this month’s data reflect a global sector in flux. Here's what producers, analysts, and stakeholders need to know.
Wheat: U.S. Stocks Dip Despite Higher Output
The U.S. wheat outlook shows increased production (1.929 billion bushels) but lower ending stocks (890 million bushels) due to higher exports. Winter wheat production fell, but higher yields helped offset lower harvested area. Despite the drop, ending stocks are still 5% above last year. Prices remain at $5.40/bu, slightly below last year.
Globally, wheat supplies were trimmed due to reductions in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran, with trade falling by 1.3 million tons. Ending stocks are down 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million.
Corn & Coarse Grains: Supply Shrinks, Prices Hold
U.S. corn production is forecast 115 million bushels lower following reduced acreage. Ending stocks fell 90 million bushels, though prices are steady at $4.20/bu. Exports surged to a projected record of 2.8 billion bushels.
Oats and barley see modest increases, while sorghum production is down 25 million bushels.
Globally, coarse grain production dipped by 3.6 million tons. Notable developments include improved Brazil corn yields and reduced barley outlooks for several key producers. Global corn stocks fell 3.2 million tons to 272.1 million.
Rice: U.S. Impacted by Flooding, Prices Rise
Flooding in the Delta—especially Arkansas—cut U.S. rice production to 205 million cwt. With reduced area and lower use, ending stocks dropped 5% to 44.7 million cwt. Season-average prices rose across all types:
All rice: $14.00/cwt
Long grain: $13.00
Medium/short grain: $13.50
Globally, rice supplies were stable, but ending stocks were reduced for China and Burma. World consumption hit a new record at 541.6 million tons, driven by China's increased feed usage.
Oilseeds: Biofuel Demand Boosts U.S. Crush
U.S. soybean production edged lower, but domestic crush was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion. This is driven by booming biofuel demand, bolstered by new EPA mandates and the 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit. Soybean oil use for biofuel is now projected at 15.5 billion pounds, up 23% from the previous 3-year average.
Soybean exports were cut by 70 million bushels, with ending stocks rising to 310 million. Prices reflect these shifts:
Soybeans: $10.10/bu (↓$0.15)
Soybean oil: $0.53/lb (↑$0.07)
Soybean meal: $290/short ton (↓$20)
Globally, soybean production and stocks rose, while exports declined slightly. Brazil remains a dominant supplier.
Livestock, Poultry & Dairy: Mixed Shifts Across Proteins
2025 Highlights
Beef: Production lowered on slower slaughter; imports and exports raised.
Pork: Production and exports both increased.
Broilers: Higher production on increased weights; exports lowered due to competition.
Turkey & Eggs: Lower production and higher prices expected.
Milk: Output raised on cow numbers and productivity.
All milk price: $22.00/cwt
2026 Outlook
Beef: Production rebound expected (feedlot placements up).
Hogs: Higher slaughter from late-2025 pig crops; prices remain strong.
Eggs & Poultry: Stable production forecasts; egg prices unchanged.
Milk: Continues growth.
All milk price: $21.65/cwt
Mexico Sugar Trade: Shift in Export Patterns
Mexico’s 2025/26 beginning stocks rose by 27,342 metric tons, driven by lower 2024/25 use and slightly lower production. That same amount is added to 2025/26 exports, but shipments to the U.S. are down by 196,542 MT due to trade constraints. Exports to non-U.S. destinations rose 223,884 MT, indicating a pivot in trade strategy.
Cotton: More Harvested Acres, Bigger U.S. Crop
U.S. cotton production is up 600,000 bales to 14.60 million, with planted and harvested area both increased. However, yield per acre declined slightly. Ending stocks rose to 4.6 million bales, while the upland season-average price holds at 62 cents/lb.
Globally, higher production in China, the U.S., and Mexico drove up ending stocks by 520,000 bales, despite reduced beginning stocks. Consumption is up modestly, while trade expectations declined slightly.
Final Thoughts
The July 2025 WASDE report reveals a global ag sector navigating challenges and opportunities, from climate and disease to energy policy and evolving global trade. For producers and policymakers alike, the shifts in demand for biofuels, protein sources, and staple grains highlight the need for adaptability in a highly dynamic environment.
Stay tuned for future updates as the harvest season unfolds and global markets respond.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0725.pdf
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