391 pips, US500 13 points and BTC 177 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2026 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 391 pips, US500 13 points and BTC 177 points profit out of the following 5 events in January 2026. The potential performance in 2025 was 1,828 pips / ticks.

January 2026

Cumulative potential, indicative performance January 2026, please see all releases below.

• USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (200 ticks / 12 January 2026)

• US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (5 pips, US500 13 points, BTC 177 points / 13 January 2026)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (66 ticks / 15 January 2026)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (103 ticks / 22 January 2026)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (17 ticks / 29 January 2026)

Total trading time would have been around 4 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

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January 2026 Macro & Commodity Volatility Recap: USDA, CPI, and DOE Data Drive Fast Markets

February 1, 2026

January 2026 delivered a dense run of high-impact U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data releases—and markets responded with speed. From grains and natural gas to FX, equity indices, and crypto, low-latency reactions created measurable short-term trading opportunities across multiple asset classes.

According to Haawks G4A analysis, USDA, CPI, and DOE releases generated hundreds of ticks and pips of potential performance, reinforcing the importance of machine-readable data in time-sensitive trading strategies.

Performance Snapshot — January 2026

• USDA WASDE & Grain Stocks (Jan 12): ~200 ticks

• US CPI (Jan 13):

  • EURUSD: 5 pips

  • US500: 13 points

  • BTC: 177 points

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports:

  • Jan 15: 66 ticks

  • Jan 22: 103 ticks

  • Jan 29: 17 ticks

Total potential performance (2026 YTD): 391 pips
(2025 full year: 1,828 pips)

USDA WASDE & Grain Stocks — January 12, 2026

Big Crops, Rising Stocks, and Mixed Price Signals

The January WASDE (Report 667), released by the United States Department of Agriculture, confirmed a clear theme of abundant supply across most major crops.

Grains Reaction

Futures volatility was concentrated in:

• Soybeans (ZS): ~80 ticks

• Corn (ZC): ~60 ticks

• Wheat (WC): ~60 ticks

Key Fundamentals

• Corn:

  • Record U.S. production at 17.0 billion bushels

  • Yield: 186.5 bu/acre

  • Ending stocks: 2.2 billion bushels

  • Price forecast: $4.10/bu

• Wheat:

  • Ending stocks: 926 million bushels

  • Season-average price: $4.90/bu

  • Global stocks rise to 278.3 million tons

• Soybeans:

  • Production: 4.3 billion bushels

  • Ending stocks: 350 million bushels

  • Price forecast cut to $10.20/bu

  • Brazil crop raised to 178 million tons

Grain Stocks Confirmation

December 1 inventories reinforced the supply-heavy narrative:

• Corn: +10% YoY

• Soybeans: +6%

• Wheat: +7%

• Grain sorghum: +26%

Market takeaway: Record production and expanding global stocks capped upside volatility, but headline numbers still triggered fast intraday futures reactions.

US CPI — January 13, 2026

Inflation Ends 2025 Steady, Not Fully Subdued

The December CPI report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics kept inflation expectations stable—but markets still reacted immediately.

Market Moves (First Minute Reaction)

• EURUSD: 5 pips

• US500: 13 points

• BTC: 177 points

Key Inflation Data

• Headline CPI (MoM): +0.3%

• YoY CPI: 2.7%

• Core CPI: 2.6%

Notable Drivers

• Shelter inflation remained sticky (+3.2% YoY)

• Food prices accelerated (+0.7% MoM)

• Gasoline fell, but electricity and natural gas rose sharply YoY

• Services inflation remained firm

Market takeaway: Inflation is no longer accelerating, but persistence in housing and services continues to matter for rates, FX, and risk assets.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports — January 2026

Big Draws, But No Supply Stress

Natural gas futures reacted to every January storage release, with volatility driven by withdrawal size versus expectations rather than absolute inventory levels.

All reports were released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

January 15 Report (Week Ending Jan 9)

• Withdrawal: 71 Bcf

• Futures move: 66 ticks

• Total storage: 3,185 Bcf

• +106 Bcf vs. 5-year average

January 22 Report (Week Ending Jan 16)

• Withdrawal: 120 Bcf

• Futures move: 103 ticks

• Total storage: 3,065 Bcf

• +177 Bcf vs. 5-year average

Despite accelerating withdrawals, inventories remained well above normal.

January 29 Report (Week Ending Jan 23)

• Withdrawal: 242 Bcf

• Futures move: 17 ticks in 7 seconds

• Total storage: 2,823 Bcf

• +143 Bcf vs. 5-year average

Regional draws were led by:

• South Central: −89 Bcf

• Midwest: −76 Bcf

• East: −55 Bcf

Western regions remained more than 30% above five-year averages.

Market takeaway: Winter demand intensified, but storage buffers remained sufficient—keeping price reactions fast but contained.

Final Thoughts

January 2026 reinforced a recurring theme across asset classes:

• Speed matters more than direction in news-driven markets

• Even supply-heavy fundamentals can generate sharp short-term volatility

• Machine-readable data remains critical for trading USDA, CPI, and DOE releases

With weather, exports, inflation expectations, and seasonal demand still in play, event-driven volatility is likely to persist into February.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

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17 ticks potential profit in 7 seconds on 29 January 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 17 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 29 January 2026.

Natural gas (17 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Natural Gas Storage Update: A Big Winter Draw, But Still Comfortable

The latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) delivers a headline-grabbing number: a 242 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal for the week ending January 23, 2026. That’s a hefty pull from storage—but zooming out, the U.S. gas market remains in a relatively solid position for late January.

Let’s break down what’s happening and why it matters.

The Big Picture: Where Storage Stands

As of January 23, working gas in underground storage totaled 2,823 Bcf across the Lower 48 states. That’s:

• 206 Bcf higher than this time last year

• 143 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,680 Bcf

• Within the historical five-year range, despite the large weekly draw

In short: winter demand is clearly doing its thing, but inventories are still comfortably padded.

Regional Breakdown: Who Pulled the Most?

Every region saw withdrawals last week, with cold-driven demand leaving a visible mark.

South Central Leads the Way

• −89 Bcf on the week

• Total storage now at 1,050 Bcf

• Still 14.1% above last year and 8.6% above the five-year average

Salt caverns accounted for a sizable portion of the draw, which is typical during periods of high, short-term demand.

Midwest Feels the Chill

• −76 Bcf weekly change

• Storage sits at 676 Bcf

• Nearly flat versus last year, but 6.4% below the five-year average

This suggests the Midwest is leaning more heavily on storage relative to recent norms.

East Region Stays Balanced

• −55 Bcf withdrawal

• Ending the week at 577 Bcf

• Slightly above last year, slightly below the five-year average

West Holds Strong

• Mountain: −14 Bcf, but a striking 34% above the five-year average

• Pacific: −9 Bcf, nearly 33% above the five-year average

The West continues to stand out for its strong inventory cushion.

A Large Draw—But Not a Red Flag

A 242 Bcf withdrawal is significant, especially compared with milder winters in recent years. Still, context matters:

• Storage levels remain well above normal

• Sampling variability is low (total coefficient of variation just 0.4%)

• There’s no immediate signal of supply stress

Unless colder-than-normal weather persists deep into February or production falters, the market appears well-positioned to ride out the remainder of winter.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead to the next EIA release on February 5, key questions include:

• Will withdrawals stay this large, or ease with moderating temperatures?

• Can storage remain above the five-year average through peak winter demand?

• How will regional imbalances—especially in the Midwest—evolve?

For now, the takeaway is clear: winter is biting, but storage is holding up.

Stay tuned—February is often where the real storage story gets written.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

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103 ticks potential profit in 7 seconds on 22 January 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 103 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 22 January 2026.

Natural gas (103 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Natural Gas Storage Remains Well Above Normal Despite Large Weekly Draw

U.S. natural gas inventories posted a significant weekly draw in mid-January, yet overall storage levels remain comfortably above historical norms—a key signal for winter market dynamics.

According to the latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states totaled 3,065 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 16, 2026.

That figure represents a net withdrawal of 120 Bcf from the prior week, reflecting stronger winter demand. Even so, inventories remain 141 Bcf higher than the same week last year and 177 Bcf above the five-year average, underscoring a well-supplied market.

Regional Breakdown: Broad-Based Withdrawals

Every major storage region reported declines during the week, with the largest draws concentrated in traditional heating-demand centers:

• South Central: −39 Bcf

• Midwest: −38 Bcf

• East: −32 Bcf

• Mountain: −9 Bcf

• Pacific: −2 Bcf

Within the South Central region, salt cavern storage fell by 12 Bcf, while nonsalt facilities declined by 27 Bcf—both consistent with seasonal withdrawal patterns.

Still Above Normal Across Most Regions

Despite the sizable draw, inventories remain above both year-ago and five-year average levels in nearly every region:

• Total U.S. storage: +4.8% vs. last year, +6.1% vs. five-year average

• Mountain region: +34.4% vs. five-year average

• Pacific region: +31.6% vs. five-year average

• South Central: nearly 9% above historical norms

At 3,065 Bcf, total working gas remains above the five-year historical range, providing a cushion against late-season cold weather risks.

What This Means for the Market

The data tells a clear story:

• Demand is real—winter withdrawals are accelerating

• Supply is ample—storage remains elevated

• Price pressure may stay muted unless colder-than-normal weather persists

For traders and analysts, the combination of strong draws and high absolute storage levels suggests a market that is responding to seasonal demand without signaling structural tightness.

As winter progresses, attention will shift to weather forecasts, withdrawal pace, and whether inventories begin converging toward historical averages—or continue to defy them.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

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66 ticks potential profit in 67 seconds on 15 January 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 66 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 15 January 2026.

Natural gas (66 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: A Comfortable Cushion Heading Into Mid-January

The latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. natural gas inventories remain solidly above normal as the winter heating season continues.

As of Friday, January 9, 2026, working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states totaled 3,185 billion cubic feet (Bcf). That represents a weekly withdrawal of 71 Bcf, in line with typical winter demand but notably less aggressive than what might be expected during periods of severe cold.

Big Picture: Above Average and Within Range

Despite the weekly draw, storage levels continue to offer a strong buffer:

• 33 Bcf higher than this time last year

• 106 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,079 Bcf

• Firmly within the historical five-year range

This positioning suggests that, nationally, the market remains well supplied, reducing the risk of near-term shortages even if colder weather emerges later in the season.

Regional Breakdown: Where the Gas Moved

Most regions saw withdrawals during the week, reflecting seasonal heating demand:

• East:
  Stocks fell by 33 Bcf, leaving inventories 2.2% below last year and 5.8% below the five-year average—a sign of tighter conditions in the region most sensitive to winter heating loads.

• Midwest:
  A 31 Bcf draw pushed inventories 3.4% below last year and 6.2% under the five-year norm, continuing a trend of stronger winter usage.

• Mountain & Pacific:
  Smaller declines of 5 Bcf and 2 Bcf, respectively. Both regions remain well above historical averages, with the Mountain region more than 30% above its five-year average.

• South Central:
  Notably, no net change week over week. Salt storage increased by 12 Bcf, while nonsalt facilities declined by the same amount—keeping total inventories steady and comfortably above both last year and the five-year average.

What This Means for the Market

The data paints a picture of a well-balanced natural gas market:

• Storage remains ample despite winter withdrawals

• Regional tightness exists, particularly in the East and Midwest

• Producing and storage hubs in the South Central region continue to provide stability

Unless prolonged extreme cold materializes, inventories appear sufficient to carry the market through the remainder of winter without major stress.

Looking Ahead

The next EIA storage report will be released on January 22, 2026. With winter far from over, traders and consumers alike will be watching whether withdrawals accelerate—or if above-average storage continues to keep prices and supply risks in check.

For now, the message is clear: the U.S. entered mid-January with a healthy natural gas safety net.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

5 pips, US500 13 points, BTC 177 points potential profit in 62 seconds on 13 January 2026, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, US500 and BTC on US CPI

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 5 pips, US500 moved 13 points and BTC moved 177 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 January 2026.

EURUSD (5 pips)

US500 (13 points)

BTC (177 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Inflation Ends 2025 Steady: What the December CPI Report Tells Us

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a clear snapshot of how inflation wrapped up 2025—and what it means for households heading into the new year.

Released on January 13, 2026, the report shows that inflation remains moderate but persistent, with price pressures still concentrated in essentials like housing, food, and certain services.

Headline Numbers at a Glance

• Monthly CPI (December 2025): +0.3% (seasonally adjusted)

• 12-month inflation rate: 2.7%, unchanged from November

• Core inflation (excluding food & energy): 2.6% year over year

These figures suggest inflation is no longer accelerating, but it also hasn’t fully cooled back to pre-pandemic norms.

Housing: Still the Biggest Driver

Shelter costs were once again the largest contributor to December’s increase:

• Shelter index: +0.4% in December

• 12-month shelter inflation: +3.2%

Rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose, while lodging away from home jumped sharply (+2.9% for the month). Housing remains the stickiest part of inflation—and the hardest for consumers to avoid.

Food Prices Pick Up Speed

Food prices rose faster than overall inflation in December:

• Food (overall): +0.7% in December

• Food at home: +2.4% year over year

• Food away from home: +4.1% year over year

Notable details:

• Grocery staples like dairy, cereals, fruits, and vegetables all increased.

• Egg prices fell sharply (-8.2%), offering rare relief.

• Restaurant prices continue to climb, especially for full-service meals.

For many households, food remains one of the most noticeable inflation pressures.

Energy: Mixed Signals

Energy prices edged higher overall, but the details matter:

• Energy index: +0.3% in December, +2.3% over the year

• Gasoline: -0.5% in December, -3.4% year over year

• Electricity: +6.7% year over year

• Natural gas: +10.8% year over year

Drivers benefited from cheaper gasoline, but utility bills—especially heating—continued to rise.

Services Inflation Remains Firm

Core services showed broad-based increases:

• Medical care: +0.4% in December, +3.2% year over year

• Recreation: +1.2% in December (largest monthly jump on record)

• Airline fares: +5.2% in December

• Personal care & education: continued steady increases

On the flip side:

• Used cars and trucks: -1.1% in December

• Communication services: -1.9%

What This Means for 2026

As 2025 closed:

• Inflation appears stable, not surging—but not fully subdued.

• Housing and services remain the key inflation risks.

• Goods inflation (like vehicles and gasoline) continues to ease.

With the January 2026 CPI report scheduled for February 11, 2026, policymakers and consumers alike will be watching closely to see whether inflation finally drifts closer to the Federal Reserve’s long-term comfort zone.

Bottom Line

Inflation ended 2025 steady but uneven. While energy and goods offered some relief, everyday essentials—housing, food, and services—kept upward pressure on household budgets. The battle against inflation isn’t over, but it’s no longer spiraling out of control either.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

200 ticks potential profit on 12 January 2026, analysis on trading soybeans, corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks data

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS), corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 200 ticks (80 ticks, 60 ticks and 60 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 12 January 2026.

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WASDE January 2026: Big Crops, Rising Stocks, and Mixed Price Signals

The January 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE 667), approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released by the United States Department of Agriculture, paints a clear picture of abundance across much of U.S. and global agriculture. Strong production gains—especially in corn, wheat, soybeans, and select global exporters—are building stocks and keeping a lid on prices, even as demand remains solid in several categories.

Below is a plain-language breakdown of the key takeaways that matter most for producers, merchandisers, and market watchers.

Wheat: Larger Stocks, Softer Prices

U.S. wheat supplies for 2025/26 are modestly higher due to increased beginning stocks reported by National Agricultural Statistics Service. Feed and residual use was cut sharply after weaker-than-expected disappearance in the first quarter, while exports remain unchanged at 900 million bushels.

• Ending stocks: 926 million bushels (+25 million)

• Season-average farm price: $4.90/bu (down $0.10)

Globally, wheat supplies are expanding as well. Argentina is harvesting a record crop, Russia’s production outlook improved, and world ending stocks climbed to 278.3 million tons. This reinforces a well-supplied global wheat market heading into 2026.

Corn & Coarse Grains: A Record Crop Changes the Tone

Corn is the headline story this month.

U.S. corn production is now estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, the largest on record—surpassing the previous high by a staggering 1.7 billion bushels. Higher yields and a sharp rise in harvested acres drove the increase.

• Yield: 186.5 bu/acre

• Ending stocks: 2.2 billion bushels

• Season-average price: $4.10/bu (up $0.10)

Despite higher stocks, prices nudged higher thanks to strong feed demand. Globally, coarse grain production is also rising, led by China’s record corn crop of 301.2 million tons. World corn stocks now approach 291 million tons, underscoring the scale of supply.

Rice: Tighter U.S. Balance Sheet

Rice stands out as one of the tighter markets in this report.

U.S. rice supplies declined due to lower imports and slightly reduced production, while domestic use surged to a record level—driven entirely by long-grain consumption.

• Ending stocks: 49.3 million cwt (down 9%)

• All-rice season-average price: $11.80/cwt (up $0.20)

Globally, however, rice remains well supplied. Higher production and stocks in China and Japan pushed world ending stocks up to 190.3 million tons.

Oilseeds: Soybeans Face Global Competition

U.S. oilseed production rose modestly, with soybeans up to 4.3 billion bushels. Crushing demand remains strong, particularly for soybean meal, but exports were reduced as Brazil continues to dominate global trade.

• U.S. soybean ending stocks: 350 million bushels

• Season-average soybean price: $10.20/bu (down $0.30)

Brazil’s crop outlook improved again, with production raised to 178 million tons on favorable weather. Combined U.S. and Brazilian gains pushed global soybean ending stocks higher, keeping pressure on prices.

Sugar: Slightly Higher U.S. Supplies

U.S. sugar production increased marginally, more than offsetting reduced imports. Ending stocks ticked higher, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio near 16%.

In Mexico, sugar production is up from last year thanks to improved rainfall, but flooding and harvest delays forced a downward revision from last month. Exports to the U.S. remain capped by high U.S. inventories under the Suspension Agreements.

Livestock & Dairy: Production Up, Prices Mixed

Red meat and poultry production for 2025 was revised higher, with gains in pork and beef offsetting lower poultry output. Looking ahead to 2026:

• Beef: Higher weights support production despite fewer cattle

• Pork: Expansion continues on larger pig crops

• Eggs: Lower production weighs on prices

• Milk: 2026 output rises on higher production per cow

The all-milk price is now forecast at $18.25/cwt for 2026, reflecting weaker butter and cheese prices despite strong protein demand.

Cotton: Smaller Crop, Firmer Price

U.S. cotton production fell more than 2% due to lower yields in the Delta. Ending stocks declined to 4.2 million bales, tightening the balance sheet.

• Season-average farm price: 61 cents/lb (up)

Globally, cotton stocks also fell as production slipped and consumption improved, pushing the world stocks-to-use ratio below 63%.

Grain Stocks: Abundance Confirmed

December 1 grain stocks reinforced the WASDE message:

• Corn stocks: +10% year over year

• Soybean stocks: +6%

• All wheat stocks: +7%

Notably, grain sorghum stocks surged 26%, and most small grains showed higher inventories despite slower disappearance.

Final Thoughts

The January 2026 WASDE confirms a theme of ample supplies and heavy stocks across most major commodities. Corn and soybeans face the strongest headwinds from record production and global competition, while rice and cotton offer relative brightness due to tighter balances. Livestock markets remain demand-supported, but rising production will cap upside potential.

As we move deeper into 2026, weather, export competitiveness, and macroeconomic demand will determine whether these large supplies translate into sustained price pressure—or unexpected volatility.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0126.pdf, https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795726/grst0126.pdf

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Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

57 pips, US500 6 points and BTC 678 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 2 events in December 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 57 pips, US500 6 points and BTC 678 points profit out of the following 2 events in December 2025. The potential performance in 2025 was 1,828 pips / ticks.

December 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance December 2025, please see all releases below.

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections (45 pips / 10 December 2025)

• US CPI and US Jobless Claims (12 pips, US500 6 points, BTC 678 points / 18 December 2025)

Total trading time would have been around 2 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

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Markets React to December 2025 Macro Shocks: CPI, Jobless Claims & the FOMC Rate Cut

December 2025 delivered two major clusters of U.S. macroeconomic data—each triggering sharp but short-lived volatility across FX, index futures, and crypto. Between the FOMC interest rate decision on December 10 and the CPI + Jobless Claims release on December 18, traders saw multiple high-impact opportunities in EURUSD, USDJPY, US500, and BTC.

Below is a consolidated performance recap and a deeper macro interpretation of what these releases signal for 2026.

1. Market Reaction: How Much Did Markets Move?

10 December 2025 – FOMC Decision & Projections

• USDJPY: 26 pips

• EURUSD: 19 pips

Total: 45 pips potential in 48 seconds
YTD (2025) potential: 1816 pips (vs 4305 in 2024)

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75%, igniting brief but actionable volatility across major FX pairs.

18 December 2025 – CPI + Jobless Claims

• EURUSD: 12 pips

• US500: 6 points

• BTC: 678 points

Total: 12 pips + 6 points + 678 points in 43 seconds
2025 YTD potential: 1828 pips

Crypto was the standout mover, with BTC reacting aggressively to the disinflationary tone and labor-market stability.

2. What the Data Actually Says: A Macro Deep Dive

A. Labor Market – Still Tight, Still Resilient

Initial claims:

• 224k, down 13k from the previous week

• 4-week average stable at 217.5k

These levels signal continued expansion, not recession. Historically, recessions show up closer to 300k+ claims.

Insured unemployment (SA):

• 1.897M, within the 2025 range of 1.83–1.95M

• IUR flat at 1.2%

No state has triggered Extended Benefits, a strong sign that labor weakness isn’t systemic.

Sectoral patterns

States with the highest insured unemployment—CA, WA, NJ, MA—mirror exposure to:

• Tech & high-wage services

• Construction slowdowns

• Logistics & manufacturing adjustments

This is late-cycle choppiness, not broad deterioration.

B. Inflation – Controlled Disinflation Toward 2–3%

Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY
Core CPI: +2.6% YoY

From September to November:

• Headline: +0.2% total

• Core: +0.2% total

• Shelter: +0.2% total

Annualized, that’s roughly 1–2% inflation—a notable downshift.

Food inflation

• Food at home: +1.9%

• Restaurant prices: +3.7% to +4.3%

Services—especially restaurants—remain sticky.

Energy

Biggest contributors:

• Fuel oil: +11.3%

• Electricity: +6.9%

• Utility gas: +9.1%

Household energy remains a political and consumer pain point.

Core components

• Shelter: +3.0%

• Services ex-energy: +3.0%

• Used cars: +3.6%

• Furnishings: +4.6%

Inflation is now services-driven, not goods-driven.

3. The December 10 FOMC Rate Cut: What It Really Means

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, despite inflation being “somewhat elevated.”

Why cut now?

Because downside risks to employment have increased—and for the first time, the Fed said so explicitly.

Fed projections to 2028

GDP growth:

• 2025: 1.7%

• 2026: 2.3%

• Longer run: 1.8%

Unemployment:

• Drifting toward 4.2–4.5%, near the Fed’s long-run estimate.

Inflation:

• PCE 2025: 2.9%

• Back to 2% by 2028

Rate path (median “dots”):

• 2025: 3.6%

• 2026: 3.4%

• Long run: 3.0%

This is not a return to zero rates.
It’s easing within a structurally higher-rate environment.

4. Internal FOMC Divisions Make This a Turning Point

Three dissents highlight the Committee’s tension:

• Miran: Wanted a 50 bp cut

• Goolsbee & Schmid: Wanted no cut at all

This split implies:

• Data signals are mixed

• The Fed’s margin for error is narrow

• Future moves may become more unpredictable

5. Policy Outlook for 2026: “Cautious Cuts, Persistent Uncertainty”

Monetary Policy

• The Fed can stay on hold while watching inflation drift lower.

• More cuts are possible—but only if unemployment rises faster than forecast.

Fiscal/Labor Policy

• No broad-based unemployment crisis

• Sector-specific retraining and support may be more effective than large UI expansions

Political economy

• Utilities and shelter inflation continue pressuring lower-income households

• Shutdown-related data gaps raise concerns about federal data quality

6. What Traders Should Take Away (Not Financial Advice)

Short-term

• Macro releases remain high-volatility catalysts

• Rate-sensitive FX pairs (USDJPY, EURUSD) still react strongly to policy guidance

• BTC’s outsized reaction suggests macro-sensitive speculative flows remain dominant

Medium-term

• A soft-landing scenario is still on the table

• But risks are tilted both toward stickier inflation and softer labor conditions—an unusual mix

Long-term

• The Fed’s neutral rate near 3% signals structurally higher yields for years to come

• This environment benefits systematic traders and machine-readable news strategies that rely on precision and speed

Final Thoughts

December’s data confirms a narrative of orderly disinflation, resilient labor markets, and a Fed cautiously easing while watching both sides of its mandate.

For traders, volatility around macro releases remains high—even when trend macro signals appear stable. High-speed execution and machine-readable data continue to offer a tactical edge in capturing these short, sharp moves.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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12 pips, US500 6 points, BTC 678 points potential profit in 43 seconds on 18 December 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD, US500 and BTC on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 12 pips and US500 moved 6 points and BTC 678 points on US CPI and US Jobless Claims data on 18 December 2025.

EURUSD (12 points)

US500 (6 points)

BTC (678 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Claims, CPI, and the Macro Signal Going into 2026
A more technical read on the December 18, 2025 UI & CPI releases

The December 18, 2025 data dump gives us a fairly coherent macro picture:

• Labor market: still tight by historical standards, with some sectoral and regional softening but no broad deterioration.

• Inflation: headline and core running in the high-2% range, drifting down from 3%, with housing and services still doing most of the work on the “sticky” side.

Below is a more policy-wonk breakdown of what these releases are actually saying.

1. Labor Market: Claims Still at “Expansion” Levels

1.1 Initial claims: well within “normal” range

• Initial claims (SA), week ending Dec 13:

  • 224k (-13k w/w from a revised 237k).

  • 4-week moving average: 217.5k (+0.5k).

In a labor force north of 165–170 million, claims in the low 200k range are typically associated with continuing expansion, not recession onset. This is consistent with past cycles where recessionary conditions usually show up with claims closer to 300k+ and/or a persistently rising 4-week average.

The November 29 print at 192k now looks like a bit of an outlier to the low side, and the December 6 spike to 237k looks like noise rather than the start of a trend.

1.2 Continued claims and IUR: mild firming, but no spike

• Insured unemployment (SA), week ending Dec 6:

  • 1.897 million (+67k w/w from a revised 1.83 million).

  • Insured unemployment rate (IUR): 1.2% (unchanged).

  • 4-week average: 1.902 million (-14k).

Insured unemployment is oscillating in a pretty narrow band: 1.83–1.95 million over much of 2025. The fact that the IUR is flat at 1.2% while levels move around is a reminder that this is mostly noise around a tight steady state, not a structural shift.

You also see divergence between SA and NSA:

• NSA insured unemployment: 1.88 million (week of Dec 6), down 75k w/w, rate down from 1.3% to 1.2%.

• Seasonal factors had expected a larger decline, so relative to expectations, the labor market is slightly weaker than the NSA drop alone suggests—but not dramatically.

1.3 State-level patterns: sectoral and regional pockets

Highest insured unemployment rates (week ending Nov 29):

• Washington 2.5%, New Jersey 2.4%, California 2.3%, Minnesota 2.2%, Massachusetts 2.1%, and Puerto Rico / Rhode Island 2.0%, with Alaska, Oregon 1.9% and Nevada, New York 1.8% close behind.

This is a familiar pattern: elevated IUR in states with:

• Higher exposure to tech / services / high-wage sectors (CA, WA, MA).

• Historically higher baseline UI recipiency rates and more generous programs (NJ, RI).

• Structural or cyclical sectoral exposure (e.g., construction and logistics on the West Coast).

For the week ending Dec 6, the largest NSA increases in initial claims were:

• CA +14,258

• IL +11,074

• NY +10,346

• TX +8,206

• GA +6,333

State comments attribute this largely to layoffs in construction, manufacturing, transportation/warehousing, and admin/support/waste management plus some health care and accommodation/food services.

Policy-relevant point: These look like sectoral adjustments, not broad-based, demand-driven layoffs. Construction and manufacturing are classic late-cycle cyclicals; seeing choppiness here doesn’t, on its own, scream “recession.”

1.4 Federal programs and total UI usage

On a not-seasonally adjusted basis:

• Total continued weeks claimed in all programs, week ending Nov 29:

  • 1,993,823 (up 262,500 w/w; versus 1,960,319 a year earlier).

• Extended Benefits (EB) is basically inactive:

  • Only 9 continued weeks claimed, and no state is triggered “on” EB.

• STC/workshare: ~22.7k continued weeks, slightly below the prior year’s 23.2k.

From a macro/financial-stability lens, the fact that EB is not triggered anywhere is a strong indicator that labor market weakness is not yet systemic.

2. Inflation: A Controlled Downshift toward 2–3%

2.1 Headline vs. core

For November 2025 (12-month changes):

• All items CPI-U: +2.7% (down from +3.0% for 12 months ending September).

• Core CPI (all items less food and energy): +2.6%.

From September to November (2-month SA changes, because October is missing):

• Headline CPI: +0.2% total over 2 months.

• Core CPI: +0.2% over the same period.

• Shelter: +0.2% over 2 months.

• Energy: +1.1%, food: +0.1% (both over 2 months).

If you roughly annualize that 2-month +0.2% move, you’re getting something in the ballpark of 1–2% annualized, i.e., softer than the 12-month headline figure. You don’t want to over-interpret two months (especially with a measurement gap), but the direction is clearly disinflationary.

2.2 Shutdown-related measurement caveat

BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations, and could only retroactively acquire most non-survey data.

Implications:

• Standard month-over-month time-series analysis is noisier than usual.

• The 2-month percent changes (September–November) are a workaround, not a model change.

• 12-month figures (e.g., +2.7% headline, +2.6% core) still serve as the main anchor for trend inflation.

For policy analysis, you basically discount very fine-grained inferences about October but still treat the broader trajectory as valid.

2.3 Decomposing headline inflation

Food (12-month changes):

• Food overall: +2.6%

  • Food at home: +1.9%

    • Meats/poultry/fish/eggs: +4.7%

    • Nonalcoholic beverages: +4.3%

    • Cereals/bakery: +1.9%

    • Fruits/vegetables: +0.1%

    • Dairy and related products: -1.6%

  • Food away from home: +3.7%

    • Full-service meals: +4.3%

    • Limited service: +3.0%

Interpretation:

• Grocery inflation is sub-3% and clustered mostly around protein and beverages.

• Restaurant inflation remains notably hotter than food-at-home, reflecting labor and overhead costs—a classic “services stickiness” story.

Energy (12-month changes):

• Energy overall: +4.2%

  • Gasoline: +0.9%

  • Fuel oil: +11.3%

  • Electricity: +6.9%

  • Utility (piped) gas: +9.1%

So energy is still a positive contributor, but the gasoline component is comparatively mild; the bigger story is household energy (utilities and fuel oil), both of which have direct cost-of-living and political salience.

Core components (12-month):

• Core CPI: +2.6%

  • Shelter: +3.0%

  • Services less energy: +3.0%

  • Used cars and trucks: +3.6%

  • Household furnishings/operations: +4.6%

  • Medical care services: +3.3%

This is a services-heavy inflation profile with goods not doing much damage except in a handful of categories (used vehicles, furnishings). The shelter component is still running above 2%, but at levels much closer to pre-pandemic “normal high” than the 6–8% rates seen in the earlier inflation spike.

3. Policy Implications

3.1 Monetary policy: This is what “orderly disinflation” looks like

From a central bank perspective, this combination is about as close as you get to “soft landing” conditions:

• Inflation has drifted down from 3.0% to 2.7%, with core at 2.6%, i.e., slightly above typical 2% targets but trending down.

• Labor market is still tight: low initial claims, low insured unemployment, no EB triggers, and only modest increases in continued claims.

Key angles for policymakers:

1. Output gap / NAIRU context

   • Claims and IUR at these levels are not consistent with a large positive unemployment gap. Labor markets still appear close to or slightly above most estimates of NAIRU.

   • Yet, inflation is not accelerating; it’s easing, which reinforces the idea that the post-pandemic inflation burst may have been driven more by supply shocks and sectoral imbalances than by persistent overheating alone.

2. Wage-price dynamics

   • With services inflation still around 3% and restaurant prices up 3–4% YoY, underlying wage growth is likely still above 2–2.5%, but not clearly incompatible with a medium-term glide path to 2%.

   • The Fed will view the moderation in goods inflation and slowing shelter inflation as evidence that pass-through from earlier cost shocks is fading.

3. Risk balance for rate decisions

   • Data like this tends to lower the urgency of further tightening.

   • It does not yet justify aggressive easing, given that core is still above target and services/shelter remain sticky.

   • Translation: it’s the kind of setup that supports a “hold for longer, cut cautiously later” stance rather than “hike again” or “slash now.”

3.2 Fiscal & labor-market policy: No crisis, but some micro hot spots

From a fiscal / labor-programs lens:

• No sign of a UI-driven emergency:

  • EB is off everywhere.

  • Total UI usage is up only modestly year-over-year.

• Sectoral and regional shocks are present:

  • Concentrated in construction, manufacturing, transportation/warehousing, and some services.

  • These are classic cases where targeted adjustment assistance, retraining, or infrastructure/green capex could absorb displaced workers rather than broad UI expansions.

The high IUR in states like WA, CA, NJ, MA, and OR suggests watching:

• Tech and high-skill services exposure.

• Local housing and cost-of-living issues that interact with labor mobility.

But nothing in the data screams “we’re about to blow through automatic stabilizers and need emergency discretionary intervention.”

3.3 Distributional and political economy angles

• Shelter and utilities are still rising faster than headline, which hits renters and lower-income households hardest.

• Food-at-home inflation is manageable, but restaurant prices remain elevated—visible to households and politically salient.

• The shutdown-driven data gaps will likely become part of the “governance risk” discussion: if recurring shutdowns degrade data quality, it complicates real-time macro management.

4. How to Read This Going Forward

If you’re thinking about these releases in a policy-wonk framework, a few takeaways:

• Trend inflation: High-2% and drifting down, not stuck in a 4–5% range.

• Labor market: Still tight, but with normal late-cycle churn concentrated in cyclical sectors.

• Policy stance: Data-dependent central bank can credibly stay on hold, lean dovish later if this disinflation trend persists, without immediate pressure to either re-tighten or pivot hard.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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45 pips potential profit in 48 seconds on 10 December 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 45 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 10 December 2025.

USDJPY (26 pips)

EURUSD (19 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The Fed Just Cut Rates: What the December 2025 Decision Really Means

On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve did something markets had been debating for months: it cut interest rates again.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.50–3.75%, and released a fresh set of economic projections that stretch out to 2028. Alongside that, they gave us a pretty clear message:

Growth looks okay, inflation is still a bit too high, the labor market is softening, and the risks around the outlook are uncomfortably elevated.

Let’s unpack what was just announced, what the Fed is signaling about the future, and why the internal disagreements on the Committee really matter this time.

1. The Big Move: A 25bp Cut with Rising Concerns

The FOMC statement paints an economy that’s still growing, but more fragile:

• “Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.”

• Job gains have slowed, and unemployment has edged up through September.

• Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and “remains somewhat elevated.”

Despite that uptick in inflation, the Fed chose to ease policy:

“The Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.”

Why cut when inflation is higher than earlier in the year?
Because the Fed is increasingly worried about the downside risks to employment. The statement explicitly notes that downside risks to employment have risen in recent months, and that’s a big shift in emphasis. The Fed’s dual mandate (maximum employment and price stability) is now facing pressure from both sides at once.

2. The New Forecasts: Slightly Stronger Growth, Gradual Disinflation

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) lays out the Fed participants’ median forecasts for the economy from 2025–2028.

Real GDP Growth (Q4/Q4)

Median forecast:

• 2025: 1.7%

• 2026: 2.3%

• 2027: 2.0%

• 2028: 1.9%

• Longer run: 1.8%

Compared with the September projections, growth is now expected to be a touch stronger in 2026 and 2027. The story: a soft-ish landing narrative is still alive—modest growth now, slightly firmer growth later, then easing back to the long-run trend.

Unemployment Rate (Q4 average)

Median forecast:

• 2025: 4.5%

• 2026: 4.4%

• 2027: 4.2%

• 2028: 4.2%

• Longer run: 4.2%

Unemployment is projected to stay above the pre-pandemic lows and settle around what the Fed views as its longer-run normal. Compared to September, changes are small, but the message is that the labor market is no longer “red hot”—it’s moving closer to equilibrium, but with heightened risk it could weaken more than desired.

Inflation: PCE and Core PCE

Headline PCE inflation (Q4/Q4):

• 2025: 2.9%

• 2026: 2.4%

• 2027: 2.1%

• 2028: 2.0%

• Longer run: 2.0%

Core PCE (excluding food & energy):

• 2025: 3.0%

• 2026: 2.5%

• 2027: 2.1%

• 2028: 2.0%

The Fed still expects a gradual glide path back to 2%, but:

• Inflation in 2025 is now seen just a bit lower than September for headline (2.9% vs 3.0) and core (3.0% vs 3.1),

• The journey back to 2% is long and uncertain, with inflation staying above target through 2026.

Put simply:

The Fed thinks inflation is heading in the right direction, but not fast enough to declare victory.

3. The Rate Path: Lower Now, but Still “Higher-for-Longer” Compared to Pre-2020

The “dot plot” (Figure 2 and the memo line in Table 1) shows where participants think the federal funds rate will be at year-end.

Median projected fed funds rate:

• 2025: 3.6%

• 2026: 3.4%

• 2027: 3.1%

• 2028: 3.1%

• Longer run: 3.0%

Key takeaways:

• The 2025 median is unchanged from September at 3.6%, even though the Fed has just cut to 3.5–3.75%. That implies only limited additional easing is currently envisioned for 2025.

• Beyond 2025, rates are expected to drift lower but not plunge.

• The longer-run neutral rate is still around 3.0%—a world where “normal” interest rates are structurally higher than the near-zero era of the 2010s.

So this is not a pivot back to ultra-easy money; it’s more like:

“We’re easing off the brakes, not slamming on the gas.”

4. Internal Divisions: The First Cut with Real Dissent

This meeting featured three dissents, underscoring real disagreement about what’s appropriate right now:

• Stephen I. Miran voted for a bigger cut, preferring a 1/2 percentage point reduction.

• Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid voted against the cut, preferring no change in the target range this meeting.

So within the Committee you can see three camps:

1. Easers (Miran & likely some others quietly sympathetic): worried enough about growth and employment that they want faster easing.

2. “Mainstream” majority: sees a 25bp cut as the right compromise between still-elevated inflation and rising downside risks to jobs.

3. Hawks (Goolsbee, Schmid and possibly others): focused more on stubborn inflation and concerned that easing too soon could reignite price pressures.

When you see this kind of three-way split, it usually means the data are sending mixed signals and the margin for error looks uncomfortably small.

5. Balance Sheet & Reserves: Quiet but Important

One line in the statement may fly under the radar but matters for markets:

“The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.”

Translation:

• The Fed thinks the banking system is now at an “ample” level of reserves.

• To keep it that way, it’s prepared to buy short-term Treasuries as needed to avoid liquidity strains.

This is not a return to crisis-era quantitative easing; it’s more of a technical adjustment to stabilize the plumbing of the financial system. But for money markets and short-term funding, it’s a big signal of a steady, supportive backdrop.

6. Risks & Uncertainty: Elevated Across the Board

The SEP includes detailed information on how uncertain policymakers feel and which way they think risks are tilted.

A few notable patterns:

• Uncertainty is high for GDP, unemployment, and both measures of inflation.

  • Most participants rate uncertainty as “higher” than the historical average over the last 20 years.

• Risks to GDP growth are tilted to the downside.

  • More participants see a greater chance that growth comes in weaker rather than stronger.

• Risks to inflation (both headline and core) are still tilted to the upside.

  • That is, there’s a meaningful probability that inflation proves stickier than forecast.

Put together, the Fed’s message is:

They’re worried about slower growth and higher unemployment, but they still don’t fully trust that inflation is conquered.

That’s why you see a cautious rate cut, not a full-on easing cycle signal.

7. What This All Means Going Forward

Here’s the big-picture read of the December 2025 Fed package:

1. The Fed is now in a rate-cutting phase, but not a panicked one.

   • A 25bp cut with a still-elevated rate path is consistent with a fine-tuning approach.

2. Growth is expected to remain positive, not collapse.

   • Median GDP growth picks up somewhat in 2026, suggesting the Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing, not bracing for a deep recession.

3. Labor markets are cooling, and that’s making the Fed nervous.

   • The explicit mention that downside risks to employment have risen is notable and politically important under their dual mandate.

4. Inflation is still above target for a while.

   • The Fed isn’t ready to declare a clean victory on inflation, which limits how aggressive they’re willing to be on cuts.

5. Dissent shows real tension in the Committee.

   • One member wants faster easing, two wanted no easing at all. Future meetings could be lively, especially if incoming data swing unexpectedly.

8. How to Think About This as an Investor, Business, or Household

Without giving specific investment advice, here are some conceptual implications:

• Borrowing costs may drift lower, but not crash.
  Mortgage and corporate borrowing rates are likely to ease somewhat over time, but the Fed’s longer-run rate around 3% still implies a higher interest rate world than the pre-2020 decade.

• Growth assets vs. safe assets:
  A gentle rate-cutting path with still-positive growth tends to support risk assets, but the elevated uncertainty and inflation risks mean volatility isn’t going away.

• Jobs outlook:
  The Fed is very focused on the labor market. If unemployment rises more quickly than forecast, the Fed could cut faster than the current dots imply—but they will be looking over their shoulder at inflation the whole time.

Final Thought

This December 2025 meeting is not a dramatic pivot; it’s a delicate adjustment in an environment where both sides of the Fed’s mandate look fragile.

The Fed is saying:

• “We’re easing a bit to support the labor market.”

• “We still think inflation is too high.”

• “And honestly, we’re not very confident how this all plays out.”

In other words: welcome to the age of cautious cuts and uncomfortable uncertainty.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm

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803 pips, US500 34 points and BTC 2275 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 18 events in the third quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 803 pips/ticks, US500 34 points and BTC 2275 points profit out of the following 18 events in the third quarter of 2025 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q3 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q3 2025 (only pips), please see all releases below.

• US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (61 pips / 3 July 2025)

• US Jobless Claims (13 pips / 10 July 2025)

• USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (76 ticks / 11 July 2025)

• US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (16 pips, US500 3 points / 16 July 2025)

• US Jobless Claims (19 pips / 24 July 2025)

• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (11 pips, BTC 95 points / 30 July 2025)

• US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (157 pips, BTC 158 poins / 1 August 2025)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (19 ticks / 7 August 2025)

• US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (59 pips, US500 17 points, BTC 461 points / 12 August 2025)

• USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) (96 ticks / 12 August 2025)

• US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (42 pips, BTC 437 points / 14 August 2025)

• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (15 pips / 28 August 2025)

• US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (22 pips, BTC 144 points / 3 September 2025)

• US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (68 pips, BTC 306 points / 5 September 2025)

• US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (14 pips, BTC 674 points / 10 September 2025)

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Jobless Claims (64 pips, US500 14 points / 11 September 2025)

• US Jobless Claims (16 pips / 18 September 2025)

• US Jobless Claims (35 pips / 25 September 2025)

Total trading time would have been around 25 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

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Key Market-Moving US Economic Events: July–September 2025 Recap

The past quarter has been packed with high-impact US economic data releases, each sparking notable volatility across forex, equities, commodities, and even crypto markets. From Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to inflation data, here’s a breakdown of how the major reports moved the markets between July and September 2025.

July 2025: A Strong Start With Jobs and Inflation

• US Employment Situation (NFP) – 3 July
  The July 3rd NFP release triggered a 61-pip move in FX markets, setting the tone for the month. Traders watched closely for labor market signals amid Fed policy uncertainty.

• US Jobless Claims – 10 July
  A lighter reaction with 13 pips of movement, but still relevant for short-term positioning.

• USDA WASDE Report – 11 July
  Agriculture markets saw significant volatility, with 76 ticks of movement, underscoring the importance of crop outlooks on commodities.

• US Producer Price Index (PPI) – 16 July
  Inflation pressures were in focus, sparking 16 pips in FX and a 3-point shift in US500 futures.

• US Jobless Claims – 24 July
  Another labor snapshot, this time moving markets by 19 pips.

• US GDP – 30 July
  Growth data delivered moderate volatility with 11 pips in FX and 95 points in BTC, highlighting crypto’s sensitivity to macroeconomic headlines.

August 2025: Inflation Surprises and Strong NFP

• US Employment Situation (NFP) – 1 August
  A blockbuster jobs report moved markets aggressively: 157 pips in FX and 158 points in BTC.

• DOE Natural Gas Storage – 7 August
  Natural gas traders reacted with 19 ticks of volatility, typical for this energy report.

• US CPI – 12 August
  Inflation data hit hard, shaking multiple markets: 59 pips in FX, 17 points in US500, and 461 points in BTC.

• USDA WASDE – 12 August
  On the same day, agriculture markets swung 96 ticks, making it a highly volatile session across asset classes.

• US PPI – 14 August
  Another inflation measure sent waves through FX and crypto: 42 pips and 437 points in BTC.

• US GDP – 28 August
  The growth snapshot added 15 pips of volatility—less dramatic but still watched closely.

September 2025: Jobs, JOLTS, and Inflation Drive Swings

• US JOLTS Report – 3 September
  Labor demand data pushed markets by 22 pips and 144 points in BTC.

• US NFP – 5 September
  The jobs report once again stood out, causing 68 pips in FX and 306 points in BTC.

• US PPI – 10 September
  An outsized reaction this time: 14 pips in FX but a massive 674-point swing in BTC.

• US CPI & Jobless Claims – 11 September
  A dual release that shook risk assets: 64 pips in FX, 14 points in US500, with crypto also under pressure.

• US Jobless Claims – 18 September
  A mid-month update triggered 16 pips of movement.

• US Jobless Claims – 25 September
  The final September claims report surprised with a stronger reaction, moving 35 pips.

Takeaways: Macro Data Is Driving Cross-Asset Volatility

1. NFP and CPI remain the top-tier movers. Both repeatedly generated triple-digit moves in crypto and sizable swings in FX.

2. Crypto is hyper-sensitive to macro. BTC reacted sharply to GDP, CPI, and especially PPI, showing greater volatility than traditional markets.

3. Agriculture markets still hinge on WASDE. July and August reports saw 70–90 tick swings, keeping commodity traders on edge.

4. Jobless claims matter when surprises hit. While often lower-impact, the late-September release caused 35 pips of volatility—showing that context matters.

As Q4 2025 approaches, markets remain highly reactive to US economic data, especially labor market reports and inflation metrics. Traders should prepare for continued volatility as the Federal Reserve balances growth concerns with inflation management.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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