According to our analysis there was a potential of 391 pips, US500 13 points and BTC 177 points profit out of the following 5 events in January 2026. The potential performance in 2025 was 1,828 pips / ticks.
January 2026
USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (200 ticks / 12 January 2026)
US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (5 pips, US500 13 points, BTC 177 points / 13 January 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (66 ticks / 15 January 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (103 ticks / 22 January 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (17 ticks / 29 January 2026)
Total trading time would have been around 4 minutes! (preparation time not included)
You can click on each release for detailed information.
January 2026 Macro & Commodity Volatility Recap: USDA, CPI, and DOE Data Drive Fast Markets
February 1, 2026
January 2026 delivered a dense run of high-impact U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data releases—and markets responded with speed. From grains and natural gas to FX, equity indices, and crypto, low-latency reactions created measurable short-term trading opportunities across multiple asset classes.
According to Haawks G4A analysis, USDA, CPI, and DOE releases generated hundreds of ticks and pips of potential performance, reinforcing the importance of machine-readable data in time-sensitive trading strategies.
Performance Snapshot — January 2026
USDA WASDE & Grain Stocks (Jan 12): ~200 ticks
US CPI (Jan 13):
EURUSD: 5 pips
US500: 13 points
BTC: 177 points
DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports:
Jan 15: 66 ticks
Jan 22: 103 ticks
Jan 29: 17 ticks
Total potential performance (2026 YTD): 391 pips
(2025 full year: 1,828 pips)
USDA WASDE & Grain Stocks — January 12, 2026
Big Crops, Rising Stocks, and Mixed Price Signals
The January WASDE (Report 667), released by the United States Department of Agriculture, confirmed a clear theme of abundant supply across most major crops.
Grains Reaction
Futures volatility was concentrated in:
Soybeans (ZS): ~80 ticks
Corn (ZC): ~60 ticks
Wheat (WC): ~60 ticks
Key Fundamentals
Corn:
Record U.S. production at 17.0 billion bushels
Yield: 186.5 bu/acre
Ending stocks: 2.2 billion bushels
Price forecast: $4.10/bu
Wheat:
Ending stocks: 926 million bushels
Season-average price: $4.90/bu
Global stocks rise to 278.3 million tons
Soybeans:
Production: 4.3 billion bushels
Ending stocks: 350 million bushels
Price forecast cut to $10.20/bu
Brazil crop raised to 178 million tons
Grain Stocks Confirmation
December 1 inventories reinforced the supply-heavy narrative:
Corn: +10% YoY
Soybeans: +6%
Wheat: +7%
Grain sorghum: +26%
Market takeaway: Record production and expanding global stocks capped upside volatility, but headline numbers still triggered fast intraday futures reactions.
US CPI — January 13, 2026
Inflation Ends 2025 Steady, Not Fully Subdued
The December CPI report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics kept inflation expectations stable—but markets still reacted immediately.
Market Moves (First Minute Reaction)
EURUSD: 5 pips
US500: 13 points
BTC: 177 points
Key Inflation Data
Headline CPI (MoM): +0.3%
YoY CPI: 2.7%
Core CPI: 2.6%
Notable Drivers
Shelter inflation remained sticky (+3.2% YoY)
Food prices accelerated (+0.7% MoM)
Gasoline fell, but electricity and natural gas rose sharply YoY
Services inflation remained firm
Market takeaway: Inflation is no longer accelerating, but persistence in housing and services continues to matter for rates, FX, and risk assets.
DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports — January 2026
Big Draws, But No Supply Stress
Natural gas futures reacted to every January storage release, with volatility driven by withdrawal size versus expectations rather than absolute inventory levels.
All reports were released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
January 15 Report (Week Ending Jan 9)
Withdrawal: 71 Bcf
Futures move: 66 ticks
Total storage: 3,185 Bcf
+106 Bcf vs. 5-year average
January 22 Report (Week Ending Jan 16)
Withdrawal: 120 Bcf
Futures move: 103 ticks
Total storage: 3,065 Bcf
+177 Bcf vs. 5-year average
Despite accelerating withdrawals, inventories remained well above normal.
January 29 Report (Week Ending Jan 23)
Withdrawal: 242 Bcf
Futures move: 17 ticks in 7 seconds
Total storage: 2,823 Bcf
+143 Bcf vs. 5-year average
Regional draws were led by:
South Central: −89 Bcf
Midwest: −76 Bcf
East: −55 Bcf
Western regions remained more than 30% above five-year averages.
Market takeaway: Winter demand intensified, but storage buffers remained sufficient—keeping price reactions fast but contained.
Final Thoughts
January 2026 reinforced a recurring theme across asset classes:
Speed matters more than direction in news-driven markets
Even supply-heavy fundamentals can generate sharp short-term volatility
Machine-readable data remains critical for trading USDA, CPI, and DOE releases
With weather, exports, inflation expectations, and seasonal demand still in play, event-driven volatility is likely to persist into February.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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