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388 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 1056 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in August 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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388 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 1056 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in August 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 388 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 1056 points profit out of the following 6 events in August 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

August 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance August 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 10 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

August 2025 Market Recap: Macro Data, Volatility, and Trading Opportunities

August 2025 proved to be another active month for traders navigating U.S. macroeconomic releases. From labor market updates to inflation reports, agricultural supply data, and GDP revisions, markets saw measurable volatility across forex, commodities, equities, and crypto. Using Haawks G4A machine-readable news feeds, here’s a breakdown of how key events unfolded and what they meant for trading.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – 1 August 2025

  • Market Moves: USDJPY & EURUSD combined moved 157 pips, BTC jumped 158 points.

  • Headline Data: July payrolls rose by just 73,000 jobs, well below expectations. Downward revisions cut May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs, confirming a slowing trend. Unemployment held at 4.2%.

  • Sectors: Health care (+55k) and social assistance (+18k) provided the only real gains. Federal government jobs fell by 12k.

  • Implication: Weak job creation alongside steady wages (+3.9% YoY) suggests a cooling labor market. Markets reacted swiftly, producing 305 seconds of high-volatility trading opportunity.

DOE Natural Gas Storage – 7 August 2025

  • Market Moves: Natural gas futures shifted 19 ticks within seconds.

  • Report: Storage rose by 7 Bcf to 3,130 Bcf, still 173 Bcf above the 5-year average, though 137 Bcf below last year.

  • Regional Standouts:

    • South Central: -17 Bcf draw (led by salt facility withdrawals).

    • East & Midwest: modest builds.

  • Implication: Tightening year-over-year levels but healthy reserves above 5-year average kept markets balanced, though traders found quick opportunities.

CPI Inflation – 12 August 2025

  • Market Moves: USDJPY (+35 pips), EURUSD (+24 pips), US500 (+17 pts), BTC (+461 pts).

  • Headline Data: CPI rose 0.2% MoM, up 2.7% YoY. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY.

  • Drivers:

    • Shelter: +0.2% (ongoing pressure from rents).

    • Food: Flat overall (groceries ↓0.1%, dining out +0.3%).

    • Energy: -1.1% (gasoline -2.2%).

    • Services: Strong gains in medical care and airline fares.

  • Implication: Inflation remains moderate but sticky in services. Markets saw fast spikes across FX, equities, and crypto.

USDA WASDE – 12 August 2025

  • Market Moves: Corn, wheat, and soybeans shifted 96 ticks combined.

  • Key Findings:

    • Corn: Record 16.7B bu crop → prices under pressure, ending stocks at 2.1B bu.

    • Wheat: Lower U.S. and global stocks → prices supported.

    • Soybeans: Production cut to 4.3B bu, exports trimmed, ending stocks down to 290M bu.

    • Cotton: Output slashed, prices up.

  • Implication: A mixed picture—record U.S. corn supplies versus tightening soybeans, wheat, and cotton kept agricultural futures volatile.

PPI Inflation – 14 August 2025

  • Market Moves: USDJPY (+28 pips), EURUSD (+14 pips), BTC (+437 pts).

  • Headline Data: Producer prices jumped 0.9% MoM, +3.3% YoY—the biggest annual increase since February 2025.

  • Details:

    • Services: +1.1% (wholesale/retail margins +2%).

    • Goods: +0.7% (vegetables +38.9%, gasoline -1.8%).

    • Core PPI: +0.6% MoM, +2.8% YoY.

  • Implication: Rising input costs signal continued inflationary pressure downstream, keeping markets alert for CPI spillovers.

GDP – 28 August 2025

  • Market Moves: USDJPY (+12 pips), EURUSD (+3 pips).

  • Report: U.S. Q2 GDP grew 3.3%, up from -0.5% in Q1. Stronger consumer spending, investment, and reduced imports drove the rebound. Corporate profits rose $65.5B after Q1’s sharp drop.

  • Inflation: PCE price index up 2.0%, core PCE steady at 2.5%.

  • Implication: Solid growth and stable inflation suggest resilience heading into H2, though the Federal Reserve’s policy stance remains key.

August 2025 Trading Recap

Across major U.S. releases, 1552 pips of potential forex performance were recorded in 2025 year-to-date, compared with 4305 pips in 2024. Crypto markets (BTC) in particular showed outsized reactions to CPI and PPI, while agricultural markets reacted strongly to WASDE surprises.

For traders leveraging machine-readable data, August demonstrated the importance of speed and precision in capturing profit opportunities across asset classes.

Next Up:

  • August Jobs Report (NFP): September 5, 2025

  • Benchmark Employment Revision: September 9, 2025

  • CPI (August): September 11, 2025

  • GDP 3rd Estimate: September 25, 2025

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

Comment

196 pips, US500 3 points and BTC 95 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in July 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

Comment

196 pips, US500 3 points and BTC 95 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in July 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 196 pips, US500 3 points and BTC 95 points profit out of the following 6 events in July 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

July 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance July 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

July 2025 U.S. Macro Recap: Market Reactions & Trading Opportunities from Key Economic Reports

July 2025 brought a series of crucial U.S. macroeconomic data releases that impacted forex, futures, and commodities markets—albeit with varied levels of volatility. While none of the individual reports caused major price shocks, traders using Haawks’ ultra-low latency machine-readable data feeds still had multiple profit opportunities across FX pairs, equity indices, and agricultural futures. Below, we break down the most tradable events of the month and how the markets reacted.

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – July 3, 2025

Potential Market Move: 61 pips in 26 seconds
USDJPY: +40 pips | EURUSD: -21 pips

The June Employment Situation Report released on July 3 delivered largely in-line results. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000—slightly above the 12-month average—while unemployment remained at 4.1%. Wage growth was modest, with average hourly earnings up 0.2%.

Despite the lack of major surprises, forex markets responded with quick but contained moves ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend. USDJPY spiked 40 pips, while EURUSD slipped 21 pips, highlighting dollar strength tied to steady job creation and earnings stability.

Key sectors driving job gains: State Government (+47K) and Health Care (+39K)
Long-term unemployment: Up 190K to 1.6 million

US Jobless Claims – July 10 & July 24, 2025

Potential Market Move: 13 pips (July 10) | 19 pips (July 24)

Initial claims fell in both reports, but insured unemployment climbed, suggesting labor market strain beneath the surface. Notably:

  • July 10: USDJPY moved 10 pips, EURUSD 3 pips

  • July 24: USDJPY moved 14 pips, EURUSD 5 pips

While volatility was limited, traders capitalized on quick directional shifts using Haawks G4A feed. The biggest insured unemployment jumps came from states like New York and New Jersey, while Michigan and Pennsylvania showed improvement.

USDA WASDE Report – July 11, 2025

Potential Market Move: 76 ticks total
Corn: 16 | Wheat: 32 | Soybeans: 28

Agricultural markets offered one of the month’s most robust trading setups. The WASDE report highlighted declining U.S. corn production, increased wheat exports, and rising demand for soybean oil due to biofuel policy changes.

Top Takeaways:

  • U.S. wheat stocks dipped despite higher output

  • Corn production forecast cut by 115 million bushels

  • Soybean crush increased due to biofuel demand

Traders watching grains futures (ZC, WC, ZS) had several opportunities to capture significant price movement within minutes of the release.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) – July 16, 2025

Potential Market Move: 16 pips | US500: 3 points

The June PPI came in flat (0.0%), confirming easing inflation pressures. Goods prices rose slightly, driven by energy, while service prices fell. Core PPI also showed no change, supporting the view that inflation may be under control at the producer level.

Notable price movements:

  • Communication equipment: +0.8%

  • Gasoline: +0.6%

  • Chicken eggs: -21.8%

Though not a high-volatility event, the release still offered tight-window scalping setups in USDJPY, EURUSD, and the S&P 500 (US500).

US GDP Q2 Advance Estimate – July 30, 2025

Potential Market Move: 11 pips | BTC: 95 points

The U.S. economy rebounded sharply in Q2, growing at a 3.0% annualized rate following a Q1 contraction. This surge was fueled by strong consumer spending and reduced imports. Inflation metrics continued to cool, adding to the Fed’s likely data-dependent, wait-and-see stance.

What moved markets most?

  • Core PCE down to 2.5%

  • Private inventory investment fell sharply

Cumulative Market Impact – July 2025

Total Potential Trading Movement Captured: 120 pips (FX) + 76 ticks (Grains) + 95 points (BTC) + 3 points (US500)
YTD : 1,164 pips | 2024 Total: 4,305 pips

Final Thoughts: July Was Quiet—but Profitable

Even with modest reactions, July 2025 provided a dozen tradeable windows. The key was speed and precision. Haawks' machine-readable G4A feed ensured that users received economic releases faster than traditional news sources, enabling scalpers and algo traders to extract value even from low-volatility prints.

Traders, prepare for potentially stronger volatility as Q3 unfolds and rate speculation heats back up.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

Comment

214 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 222 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in June 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

Comment

214 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 222 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in June 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 214 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 222 points profit out of the following 7 events in June 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

June 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance June 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 10 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

June 2025: U.S. Economic Data Roundup and Market Impact – A Mixed but Actionable Picture for News Traders

As Q2 2025 came to a close, market participants experienced a flurry of high-impact U.S. economic data releases. From labor market indicators to inflation and agricultural reports, the data presented a mixed but actionable landscape for traders using machine-readable news feeds. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of key macroeconomic events in June 2025 and how they moved markets—particularly forex, index futures, and commodities.

June 3 – JOLTS Report (BLS)

Potential Market Movement: 10 pips in 12 seconds
Pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY
The U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a steady labor market in April with openings unchanged at 7.4 million. The market interpreted the release as neutral, resulting in modest but quick 10-pip moves across EURUSD and USDJPY.

Takeaway: A calm labor market doesn't mean a calm market. Low latency execution captured this brief spike.

June 5 – Initial Jobless Claims

Potential Market Movement: 33 pips + US500 6 points in 24 seconds
Pairs/Assets: USDJPY, EURUSD, US500
Claims ticked up to 247,000—the highest in months—causing swift market reactions. The US500 dropped while forex pairs spiked.

Takeaway: A slight rise in claims continues to signal softening in the labor market, a trend traders should watch.

June 6 – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Potential Market Movement: 37 pips + US500 11 points + BTC 209 points in 18 seconds
Assets: USDJPY, EURUSD, US500, BTC
May added 139,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Markets interpreted this as mildly dovish, triggering movement across forex, equities, and even crypto.

Takeaway: Bitcoin is responding more frequently to macro data, not just tech headlines—machine-readable feeds matter here too.

June 11 – CPI Report

Potential Market Movement: 3 pips + BTC 222 points in 23 seconds
Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, BTC
May’s inflation came in cooler at +0.1% m/m. BTC surged 222 points, while forex markets remained largely subdued.

Takeaway: Low headline CPI can still cause big swings in alternative assets like crypto.

June 12 – Jobless Claims + PPI

Potential Market Movement: 41 pips in 26 seconds
Pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY
Continued claims hit the highest since Nov 2021. PPI rose just 0.1%. Traders responded swiftly to the twin signals of labor softness and sticky inflation.

Takeaway: A two-release combo amplifies potential—layered datasets demand machine-readable speed.

June 26 – Jobless Claims + GDP + Durable Goods

Potential Market Movement: 26 pips in 48 seconds
Pairs: USDJPY, EURUSD
Claims dropped, durable goods surged (+16.4%), but GDP was revised down to -0.5%. Mixed signals confused human traders—but algorithmic systems capitalized on the quick volatility.

Takeaway: Contradictory data is a recipe for whipsaws—ideal for fast-reacting, low-latency systems.

June 30 – USDA Acreage & Grain Stocks

Potential Market Movement: 64 ticks on Soybeans (ZS)
Asset: Soybeans Futures
Soybean acreage dropped 4%, but stocks rose 4%. The market popped 64 ticks on the data. Corn planting was notably up 5%, while wheat stockpiles surged 22%.

Takeaway: USDA data remains a high-value opportunity, especially for agricultural futures traders with millisecond access.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance Snapshot

Haawks Potential Trading Opportunity in 2025 So Far:
968 pips from U.S. macro releases (January–June 2025)
(2024 total: 4,305 pips)

Final Thoughts

June offered a complex but tradable market for those equipped with real-time machine-readable data. From labor metrics to inflation and agriculture, multiple assets responded within seconds. Haawks G4A continues to deliver sub-second latency performance, giving our clients the edge they need in modern macro-driven trading.

Ready to upgrade your news trading strategy?
Contact us at sales@haawks.com for timestamps, demo access, or a performance breakdown tailored to your trading style.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

Comment

277 pips, US500 53 points and BTC 192 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 10 events in May 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

Comment

277 pips, US500 53 points and BTC 192 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 10 events in May 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 277 pips, US500 53 points and BTC 192 points profit out of the following 10 events in May 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

May 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance May 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 13 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

May 2025 Market Recap: High-Impact Economic Data and Trading Opportunities

Published: June 4, 2025

May 2025 was an eventful month for traders focused on macroeconomic data. With a series of high-volatility releases, instruments like USDJPY, US500, natural gas, crude oil, and agricultural futures experienced swift and significant moves. For news traders using low-latency machine-readable data feeds like Haawks G4A, these events translated into clear opportunities.

Key Market Reactions – Summary of May 2025 Events

Date Event Instrument(s) Movement Latency Opportunity
May 1 US Jobless Claims USDJPY, US500 29 pips, 7 points (in 64s) ⚡ High
May 1 DOE Natural Gas Storage Report Natural Gas 55 ticks (in 42s) ⚡ High
May 2 US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) USDJPY, US500, BTC 19 pips, 19 points, 192 pts (in 92s) ⚡⚡ Very High
May 8 US Jobless Claims USDJPY, US500 9 pips, 3 points (in 133s) ⚡ Moderate
May 12 USDA WASDE Report Corn, Wheat, Soy 56 ticks total ⚡ High
May 13 US CPI USDJPY, US500 3 pips, 14 points (in 23s) ⚡⚡ Very High
May 15 PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed USDJPY, US500 17 pips, 10 points (in 248s) ⚡⚡ Very High
May 15 DOE Natural Gas Storage Report Natural Gas 19 ticks (in 17s) ⚡ High
May 21 DOE Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil 42 ticks (in 87s) ⚡ High
May 29 US Jobless Claims USDJPY, EURUSD 28 pips total (in 18s) ⚡⚡ Very High

Event Analysis

1. Labor Market Volatility:

  • The US Jobless Claims data throughout the month showed signs of softening labor conditions, with May 29 recording the highest insured unemployment rate since 2021 (1.3%).

  • Initial claims spiked to 240,000, a clear signal that layoffs may be increasing across industries like manufacturing and retail.

2. Non-Farm Payrolls (May 2):

  • 177,000 jobs added in April – slightly above the 12-month average.

  • Job growth centered in healthcare and transport, while federal employment continued to shrink.

  • US500 and BTC responded strongly, reflecting both cautious optimism and volatility in equity and crypto markets.

3. Inflation Watch:

  • CPI (May 13) rose 0.2% MoM, with shelter and energy as key drivers. Annual inflation eased to 2.3%, the lowest in four years.

  • PPI (May 15) dropped 0.5%, the largest decline since 2023, driven by reduced service prices. Core PPI still climbed 2.9% YoY.

  • Consumer demand remained strong with retail sales up 0.1% MoM and 5.2% YoY.

4. Energy Market Dynamics:

  • Natural gas and crude oil saw notable storage builds, keeping inventories slightly above 5-year averages.

  • Despite builds, natural gas moved 55 and 19 ticks on respective reports due to storage surprises.

  • Crude oil rose 42 ticks on May 21 amid refinery upticks and rising inventories.

5. Agriculture:

  • The WASDE report (May 12) highlighted record corn production and increased global competition.

  • Corn, wheat, and soybean futures moved 56 ticks in response.

  • Brazil and Russia continue dominating grain export markets, pressuring U.S. prices.

Monthly Trading Impact (as of May 30, 2025)

Instrument May 2025 Potential Pips/Ticks
USDJPY 105 pips
US500 53 points
BTC 192 points
Natural Gas 74 ticks
Crude Oil 42 ticks
Corn/Wheat/Soy 56 ticks
Total YTD 754 pips equivalent

2024 Performance: 4,305 pips – strong benchmark for machine-readable news trading potential.

Conclusion: What Traders Should Watch

  • Next Jobs Report: June 6, 2025

  • Next CPI/PPI Releases: June 11–12, 2025

  • FOMC Rate Decision: June 18, 2025

With inflation cooling but not conquered, and labor data sending mixed signals, volatility is likely to remain elevated around economic releases. Traders leveraging low-latency data from Haawks G4A can stay ahead by reacting instantly to these market-moving events.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

Comment

148 pips, US500 21 points and BTC 305 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in April 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

Comment

148 pips, US500 21 points and BTC 305 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in April 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 148 pips, US500 21 points and BTC 305 points profit out of the following 7 event in April 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

April 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance April 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)

April 2025 Macro Wrap-Up: Labor, Energy, and GDP Trends Shape Market Sentiment

As April 2025 closes, a clearer picture emerges of a U.S. economy navigating multiple crosscurrents—from labor market softening to evolving energy dynamics and a mild GDP contraction. Here's a factual roundup of key economic reports that moved markets and influenced investor sentiment this month.

JOLTS Report (February 2025 Data)

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February showed that the U.S. labor market continues to gradually cool:

  • Job Openings: 7.6 million (down 194,000 from January, down 877,000 YoY)

  • Hires: 5.4 million (unchanged)

  • Quits: 3.2 million (unchanged MoM, but down 273,000 YoY)

  • Layoffs & Discharges: 1.8 million (flat)

Key Sectoral Trends:

  • Retail layoffs: +67,000

  • Real Estate layoffs: +24,000

  • Federal Government layoffs: +18,000

  • Transportation/Warehousing: -42,000 layoffs (a positive shift)

Market Implications:
The persistent decline in job openings and stable (but low) quits rate support a view that wage pressures are easing—reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may tilt dovish in the second half of 2025. Retail and real estate sector weakness may pressure consumer and housing-related equities, while strength in transportation hints at selective industrial resilience.

Natural Gas Market Trends (March–April 2025)

March 28 Storage Report:

  • Weekly build: +29 Bcf

  • Total inventory: 1,773 Bcf

  • Still 491 Bcf below year-ago levels

April 16 Update:

  • Henry Hub Spot: $3.21/MMBtu → $3.247/MMBtu

  • Supply held steady, demand fell 6.9%

  • LNG exports remained high at 129 Bcf across 34 vessels

  • Storage injection: +16 Bcf (well below 5-year average of 50 Bcf)

April 23 Update:

  • Spot price: $2.93/MMBtu (down $0.28 WoW)

  • Storage: +88 Bcf injection

  • Working stocks: 1,934 Bcf (2% below 5-year avg)

Regional Volatility:

  • Waha Hub: -$1.33/MMBtu

  • Houston Ship Channel: +$0.11/MMBtu

  • Algonquin Citygate: -$0.68/MMBtu

Takeaway:
Warm weather and weak residential demand have driven prices lower, despite modest production growth and high LNG exports. Storage levels remain below average, but recent builds indicate easing supply concerns.

Petroleum Status Reports – April 2025

Week Ending April 4:

  • Refinery utilization: 86.7%

  • Gasoline production: 8.9M bpd

  • Crude inventories: +2.6M barrels

  • Distillate inventories: -3.5M barrels

  • Gasoline inventories: -1.6M barrels

Week Ending April 18:

  • Refinery utilization: 88.1%

  • Gasoline production: 10.1M bpd

  • Gasoline inventories: -4.5M barrels (3% below average)

  • Distillate inventories: -2.4M barrels (13% below average)

  • Propane: +2.3M barrels

Retail Prices:

  • Gasoline: $3.141/gallon (down $0.527 YoY)

  • Diesel: $3.534/gallon (down $0.458 YoY)

Key Themes:
Rising refinery utilization suggests preparation for the summer driving season. Distillate and jet fuel demand are notably strong, while gasoline inventory declines point to tightness that could intensify if demand spikes.

Q1 2025 GDP: A Mild Contraction Amid Rising Imports

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

  • Real GDP: -0.3% (Q/Q annualized)

  • Previous quarter: +2.4%

Drivers of Contraction:

  • Imports: Rose sharply (especially in pharmaceuticals, electronics)

  • Government spending: Fell, led by federal defense cuts

  • Exports: Increased but not enough to offset imports

Strength Areas:

  • Consumer spending: Led by services and nondurables

  • Private investment: Boosted by wholesale inventory buildup

Inflation Measures:

  • PCE Index: +3.6%

  • Core PCE: +3.5%

  • Gross domestic purchases index: +3.4%

Private Demand Indicator:

  • Real final sales to private domestic purchasers: +3.0%

Wildfire Impacts:
$34B in private asset damage and $11B in public infrastructure loss from January wildfires in Southern California—not included in GDP directly but significant in broader economic context.

Conclusion: What's Next?

The data paints a mixed but informative picture:

  • The labor market is softening, which may open the door for policy easing.

  • Energy markets are navigating seasonal shifts with mixed supply/demand signals.

  • The GDP miss, though modest, raises concerns over trade imbalances and fiscal drag.

  • Inflation remains sticky—likely to remain a central factor in Fed decision-making.

With the next JOLTS report and further inflation data due ahead of the FOMC’s mid-year meetings, market participants will be watching closely for confirmation—or contradiction—of these emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

Comment

US30 154 points and BTC 592 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 1 event in March 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

Comment

US30 154 points and BTC 592 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 1 event in March 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of US30 154 points and BTC 592 points profit out of the following 1 event in March 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

March 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance March 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 1 minute! (preparation time not included)

Market Sentiment Crashes: What Traders Need to Know After March 2025's Drop

March 2025 has seen a dramatic downturn in consumer sentiment, with the Index of Consumer Sentiment plummeting to alarming lows. This significant drop, marking a 27.1% decrease year-over-year and a 10.5% fall from February, sends a clear signal of rising economic uncertainty that is affecting not only consumers but also the broader markets. Here's what traders need to know about the current landscape and how to navigate these turbulent waters.

Key Takeaways from the Latest Data:

  • Consumer Sentiment: The Index fell to 57.9, a steep decline from 64.7 in February and 79.4 from the previous year.

  • Economic Expectations: The Index of Consumer Expectations suffered a sharp 15.3% month-over-month decline and a 30.0% year-over-year drop.

  • Inflation Expectations: Short-term inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, the highest since November 2022, and long-term expectations jumped to 3.9%, the largest increase since 1993.

Impact on Markets:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) responded with a 154-point drop, and Bitcoin (BTC) decreased by 592 points, indicating widespread risk aversion among investors.

Equities Market: Navigating the Bearish Outlook

With consumer confidence waning, the equities market is facing headwinds:

  • Retail & Consumer Goods: These sectors are likely to experience the direct impact of reduced consumer spending. Traders should monitor major retailers and automakers for signs of weakness.

  • Financials: The rising inflation expectations may lead to higher interest rates, which can benefit banks in the short term. However, increased borrowing costs could strain consumers and businesses alike, introducing long-term risks.

  • Technology: As a sector sensitive to interest rate changes, tech stocks may see heightened volatility. Traders should keep an eye on how these stocks react to shifts in monetary policy.

Crypto Market: Understanding BTC’s Vulnerability

Bitcoin's significant drop mirrors the broader sentiment of avoiding risk:

  • Support Levels: Traders should watch for Bitcoin to hold at critical technical levels. A failure to maintain these levels could lead to further declines.

  • Macroeconomic Factors: Signals of further tightening by central banks could push traders away from speculative assets like cryptocurrencies, intensifying the sell-off.

  • Altcoins: Typically following Bitcoin’s lead, the altcoin market is also at risk of steep declines. Caution is advised for those invested in cryptocurrencies outside of BTC.

Trading Strategies in a Bearish Environment

Given the current market conditions, traders should consider defensive strategies:

  • Diversification: Beyond equities and crypto, look into commodities or bonds, which might offer safer returns during times of market stress.

  • Short Positions: For those who engage in short selling, declining sectors like tech or consumer discretionary might provide opportunities.

  • Options: Utilizing options can help manage risk, allowing traders to hedge against further downside with protective puts or capitalize on volatility with straddles.

Conclusion

The stark drop in consumer sentiment and the corresponding market reactions highlight a period of heightened caution for traders. In these times, focusing on sectors that are less sensitive to consumer sentiment and preparing for potential shifts in monetary policy will be key. As always, staying informed and agile will be crucial in navigating the challenges ahead.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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112 pips, US30 317 points and BTC 2298 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in February 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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112 pips, US30 317 points and BTC 2298 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in February 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 112 pips/ticks, US30 317 points and BTC 2298 points profit out of the following 5 events in February 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

February 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance February 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Key Market Events for February 2025: Impact on Major Assets

Traders are keeping a close eye on key economic events in February 2025, as recent data releases have moved major financial markets, including forex, equities, and cryptocurrencies. Below is a breakdown of significant reports and their impact on various assets.

US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – 4 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 15 pips movement recorded.

    • US30: 26-point fluctuation.

  • The JOLTS report provides insight into the US labor market’s health, influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations and overall economic sentiment.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations – 7 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 14 pips.

    • US30: 144 points.

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 739 points.

  • Consumer sentiment reflects consumer confidence in the economy, while inflation expectations influence market positioning ahead of Federal Reserve decisions. This release significantly impacted risk-sensitive assets, especially BTC and US indices.

USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) – 11 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Agricultural Futures: 40 ticks of movement recorded.

  • WASDE plays a critical role in commodity markets, impacting grain and livestock prices. Traders dealing in agricultural futures actively respond to supply and demand shifts indicated in this report.

US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 12 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 23 pips.

    • US30: 147 points.

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 1279 points.

  • CPI is one of the most anticipated economic indicators, providing insights into inflation trends. Higher inflation data typically fuels expectations of tighter monetary policy, affecting forex, equities, and crypto markets significantly.

US Retail Sales – 14 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 20 pips.

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 280 points.

  • Retail sales data reflects consumer spending strength, a crucial driver of GDP growth. The market’s reaction underscores its importance in shaping risk appetite across asset classes.

Final Thoughts

Traders should continue monitoring these economic indicators, as they provide valuable insights into market trends and help shape informed trading decisions. Understanding the historical impact of these reports aids in strategy development and risk management.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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217 pips, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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217 pips, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 217 pips/ticks, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points profit out of the following 5 events in January 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

January 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance January 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 10 minutes! (preparation time not included)

January 2025: Key Market Events Recap and Trading Insights

January 2025 saw several critical economic releases that influenced financial markets. Below is a recap of key events and their implications for traders.

1. US Jobless Claims (2 January 2025)

Impact: 28 pips

The jobless claims report indicated labor market resilience with a modest decline in initial claims. This reinforced confidence in the job market and set the tone for early trading trends in the year.

2. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (7 January 2025)

Impact: 25 pips

The JOLTS report showed steady job openings but a decline in voluntary quits, suggesting cautious worker sentiment. This data played a role in shaping market expectations about economic stability and potential shifts in hiring trends.

3. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP) (10 January 2025)

Impact: 35 pips, US30: 210 points

The NFP report exceeded expectations, driving volatility in forex and equity markets. Strong job growth supported risk assets initially, but concerns over inflationary wage pressures created mixed reactions.

4. USDA WASDE / USDA Grain Stocks (10 January 2025)

Impact: 104 ticks

The WASDE and Grain Stocks report revealed shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Lower corn and soybean supplies provided bullish support to agricultural commodities, while rising wheat stocks capped price gains in that sector.

5. US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (15 January 2025)

Impact: 25 pips, US30: 90 points, BTC: 1018 points

The CPI report showed core inflation cooling slightly, prompting traders to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. This led to a decline in Treasury yields, a short-lived rally in equities, and increased volatility in BTC.

Market Reactions and Takeaways:

  • Forex: USD pairs experienced significant swings, with CPI and NFP driving directional moves.

  • Indices: US30 faced volatility but rebounded as markets reassessed Fed policy expectations.

  • Commodities: Corn and soybeans gained on tighter supplies, while wheat remained range-bound due to higher stock levels.

  • Crypto: BTC saw sharp price movements, influenced by shifting inflation expectations and macroeconomic sentiment.

Looking Ahead:

As traders navigate 2025, key areas to watch include ongoing labor market trends, Fed policy decisions, and commodity supply shifts. Staying informed and agile will be crucial in capitalizing on market movements and managing risk effectively.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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126 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 4 events in December 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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126 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 4 events in December 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 126 pips / ticks profit out of the following 4 events in December 2024. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

December 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance December 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 3 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Navigating Key Economic Releases: December 2024 Insights

December 2024 presents a series of pivotal economic releases that promise to shape the financial markets’ trajectory as we close the year. With markets bracing for volatility, understanding the nuances of these data points is essential for traders and analysts alike. Below, we dissect the key releases: the JOLT survey, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), DOE Natural Gas Storage Report, and the FOMC interest rate decision.

1. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT)

Release Date: December 3, 2024
Historical Impact: ~18 pips on forex markets

The JOLT survey is a cornerstone in gauging labor market health. In December 2024, market participants will scrutinize job openings, hires, and quits rates. These metrics provide insights into labor demand and employee confidence. High job openings suggest robust demand, whereas elevated quits typically indicate worker confidence in securing alternative employment.

Research Highlights:

  • Comparative Trends: With the Fed closely monitoring labor tightness to combat inflation, the JOLT data could hint at wage pressures.

  • Sectoral Shifts: Watch for growth in tech, healthcare, and leisure industries, which historically exhibit sensitivity to broader economic conditions.

2. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP)

Release Date: December 6, 2024
Historical Impact: ~37 pips on forex markets

The NFP report remains the month’s most anticipated release. Beyond the headline payroll number, traders should evaluate unemployment rates and average hourly earnings. These components often guide monetary policy expectations.

Key Considerations:

  • Wage Growth: Accelerating wages could validate concerns of sticky inflation, prompting hawkish Federal Reserve action.

  • Sectoral Employment: Look for potential divergences, such as strength in construction and logistics versus weaknesses in retail.

3. DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Release Date: December 12, 2024
Historical Impact: ~35 ticks on natural gas futures

Seasonal patterns often amplify the significance of the DOE’s natural gas storage report in December. As winter demand peaks, inventory data offers critical supply-demand balance insights.

Market Dynamics:

  • Weather Correlations: Cold weather forecasts could exacerbate price volatility if storage draws exceed expectations.

  • Production Trends: Monitor domestic production levels and LNG exports, which have increasingly influenced global natural gas prices.

4. FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections

Release Date: December 18, 2024
Historical Impact: ~36 pips on forex markets

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting will be particularly consequential, as it includes updated economic projections. The interest rate decision and accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will clarify the Fed’s policy direction.

Focus Areas:

  • Interest Rate Path: Markets will parse the dot plot to infer future rate trajectories.

  • Inflation and Growth Forecasts: Revisions to core PCE inflation and GDP growth forecasts will influence broader sentiment.

  • Press Conference Signals: Chair Powell’s commentary could provide vital clues on how the Fed views labor market resilience and inflation trends heading into 2025.

Strategies for Traders

  • Pre-Positioning: Historically, markets exhibit caution ahead of these releases. Consider reducing exposure to avoid whipsaws.

  • Event-Specific Plays:

    • JOLT and NFP: Focus on USD pairs and bond yields.

    • Natural Gas Storage Report: Trade volatility in natural gas futures and ETFs.

    • FOMC Decision: Watch for broad USD moves and sectoral impacts on equities.

  • Cross-Market Analysis: Evaluate correlations between equities, commodities, and forex to anticipate broader market reactions.

Conclusion

December 2024 offers a dense calendar of influential economic data. By closely monitoring these releases and contextualizing them within broader macroeconomic trends, traders and analysts can better navigate the complexities of the financial markets. Staying informed and agile will be key as the year concludes with these impactful events.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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85 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 2 events in November 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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85 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 2 events in November 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 85 pips / ticks profit out of the following 2 events in November 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

November 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance November 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 1 minute! (preparation time not included)

Understanding October 2024 Inflation Data: Insights from the PPI and CPI Reports

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for October 2024. Together, these reports provide a comprehensive view of inflationary trends, capturing price changes from the perspectives of producers and consumers. Let’s break down the key findings from each report and explore their implications for businesses, policymakers, and consumers.

October 2024 Producer Price Index (PPI): Inflation from the Production Side

The PPI, which measures price changes at the wholesale level, showed a 0.2% rise in October, signaling steady but moderate inflation in production costs. Over the past 12 months, the final demand index increased by 2.4%, reflecting contained inflationary pressures.

Key Drivers of PPI Changes

  1. Final Demand Services:

    • Services prices rose 0.3%, marking a consistent upward trend.

    • Notable increases were seen in transportation and warehousing (+0.5%) and portfolio management services (+3.6%).

    • The rise in service costs highlights challenges for industries reliant on logistics and professional services.

  2. Final Demand Goods:

    • Goods prices rose by a modest 0.1%, reversing prior declines.

    • Excluding food and energy, goods prices climbed 0.3%, reflecting strong demand for manufactured products.

    • Noteworthy was an 8.4% jump in carbon steel scrap prices, affecting construction and manufacturing industries.

  3. Intermediate Demand:

    • Processed goods for intermediate demand rose 0.5%, while unprocessed goods surged 4.1%—the largest increase since August 2022.

    • A 9.9% spike in crude petroleum prices drove much of the intermediate goods inflation.

Implications of the PPI Trends

  • For Businesses: Rising costs in services and intermediate goods could lead to higher production expenses. Companies may need to manage costs or adjust pricing to maintain profitability.

  • For Policymakers: Persistent core PPI inflation may influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

  • For Consumers: Increased wholesale costs may translate into higher retail prices, particularly in services like travel, healthcare, and retail products.

October 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation from the Consumer Side

The CPI, which measures price changes experienced by consumers, increased by 0.2% in October, consistent with the prior three months. Over the past year, the CPI rose 2.6%, slightly accelerating from September’s 2.4%.

Key Drivers of CPI Changes

  1. Shelter Costs:

    • Shelter costs rose 0.4% and have increased 4.9% year-over-year.

    • Rent and owners’ equivalent rent were major contributors, reflecting continued pressure in the housing market.

  2. Food Prices:

    • The food index edged up 0.2%, a slower pace than September’s 0.4% rise.

    • Prices for cereals, bakery products, and dairy surged by 1.0%, while meat and egg prices declined significantly (-1.2% and -6.4%, respectively).

  3. Energy:

    • The energy index remained flat, providing stability after recent declines. Gasoline prices fell 0.9%, but electricity costs rose 1.2%.

  4. Core CPI:

    • Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3%.

    • Used cars and trucks (+2.7%), airline fares (+3.2%), and medical care services (+0.4%) were significant contributors.

  5. Declines in Other Categories:

    • Apparel prices dropped 1.5%, and communication and household furnishings saw declines, partially offsetting broader price increases.

Implications of the CPI Trends

  • For Consumers: Shelter costs remain the primary inflationary burden, while declines in energy prices provide some relief. Food price increases are more modest but uneven across categories.

  • For Policymakers: The steady rise in core CPI highlights persistent inflation in non-volatile sectors, which may shape future monetary policy decisions.

What Do These Reports Mean for the Economy?

Both the PPI and CPI reports indicate that inflation is present but manageable, with specific areas driving price increases:

  • Businesses: Rising costs in services and core goods could pressure margins, particularly for industries reliant on logistics, professional services, or raw materials like steel.

  • Policymakers: While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, its contained nature might support a cautious approach to rate hikes.

  • Consumers: Retail prices are likely to rise in areas linked to higher production costs, such as travel, healthcare, and housing, but energy price stability offers some respite.

Looking Ahead: Key Trends to Monitor

As we move into the final months of 2024, the November inflation reports (due in December) will shed more light on these trends. Key areas to watch include:

  1. Service Sector Inflation: Any acceleration here could signal broader price pressures.

  2. Intermediate Demand: Rising production costs may translate into retail inflation if trends persist.

  3. Energy Prices: Seasonal fluctuations in heating costs and crude oil prices could impact both wholesale and retail inflation.

Final Thoughts

October 2024’s PPI and CPI reports offer a snapshot of an economy navigating steady inflation, with sector-specific pressures shaping the broader picture. By understanding these trends, businesses and consumers can better prepare for potential price changes, while policymakers can fine-tune strategies to maintain economic stability.

Stay tuned for our next update in December, as we continue to track the evolving inflation landscape and its implications for everyday life and economic policy.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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