According to our analysis there was a potential of 219 pips, US500 14 points and BTC 1124 points profit out of the following 6 events in September 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.
August 2025
US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (22 pips, BTC 144 points / 3 September 2025)
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (68 pips, BTC 306 points / 5 September 2025)
US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (14 pips, BTC 674 points / 10 September 2025)
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Jobless Claims (64 pips, US500 14 points / 11 September 2025)
US Jobless Claims (16 pips / 18 September 2025)
US Jobless Claims (35 pips / 25 September 2025)
Total trading time would have been around 7 minutes! (preparation time not included)
You can click on each release for detailed information.
September 2025 Recap: U.S. Labor and Inflation Data Drive Market Volatility
September 2025 was packed with U.S. macroeconomic releases, and each provided sharp, tradeable moves across forex pairs, Bitcoin, and indices. From labor market updates (JOLTS, NFP, jobless claims) to inflation gauges (PPI, CPI), the data shaped sentiment on growth and monetary policy. Below is a recap of key events, market reactions, and trading performance.
Market Reactions at a Glance
US JOLTS (Sept 3): 22 pips across USDJPY/EURUSD, BTC +144 points
US NFP (Sept 5): 68 pips across USDJPY/EURUSD, BTC +306 points
US PPI (Sept 10): 14 pips across USDJPY/EURUSD, BTC +674 points
US CPI + Jobless Claims (Sept 11): 64 pips across USDJPY/EURUSD, US500 +14 points
US Jobless Claims (Sept 18): 16 pips across USDJPY/EURUSD
US Jobless Claims (Sept 25): 35 pips across USDJPY/EURUSD
Total September 2025 potential: +219 pips in FX, BTC +1,124 points, US500 +14 points.
Key Data Releases and Insights
September 3 – JOLTS
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.2 million job openings in July, essentially steady month-over-month. Sector-level declines were concentrated in health care and entertainment, but the overall labor market looked stable.
Market reaction: USDJPY & EURUSD moved 22 pips; BTC spiked 144 points.
September 5 – NFP
The August Employment Situation showed only +22,000 jobs added with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. Revisions shaved off summer job gains, pointing to softer hiring momentum.
Market reaction: USDJPY 42 pips, EURUSD 26 pips, BTC +306 points.
September 10 – PPI
Headline PPI fell -0.1% m/m in August, while core PPI (ex-food & energy) also dipped -0.1%. Pipeline pressures eased, though year-on-year inflation (+2.6%) stayed above pre-pandemic norms.
Market reaction: Smaller FX moves (14 pips) but BTC surged +674 points, highlighting crypto’s sensitivity to inflation signals.
September 11 – CPI & Jobless Claims
Data released simultaneously showed:
CPI (Aug): +0.4% m/m, 2.9% y/y; Core CPI held at +0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y.
Jobless Claims: Jumped to 263K, the highest since 2021, signaling cooling in the labor market.
Market reaction: USDJPY & EURUSD combined for 64 pips, US500 gained 14 points.
September 18 – Jobless Claims
Claims fell sharply to 231K, reversing the prior spike. Insured unemployment was steady at 1.3%.
Market reaction: USDJPY/EURUSD moved just 16 pips.
September 25 – Jobless Claims
Another positive surprise as claims dropped to 218K, lowest in over a month, confirming resilience in the U.S. labor market.
Market reaction: USDJPY & EURUSD moved 35 pips.
Trading Takeaways
Volatility clustered around labor & inflation data: NFP and CPI/Claims provided the strongest sustained FX moves.
Crypto remains inflation-sensitive: BTC’s biggest jump (+674 points) came on softer PPI data.
Labor market resilience vs. cooling signs: Jobless claims whipsawed, but the broader trend still points to steady employment levels despite slowing payroll growth.
Total potential (Sept 2025): 219 pips (FX), 1,124 BTC points, 14 US500 points.
What’s Next?
September Employment Situation (NFP): October 3, 2025
September CPI: October 15, 2025
September PPI: October 16, 2025
As Q4 begins, the balance between labor market cooling and sticky inflation will likely drive both FX and risk asset volatility.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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