According to our analysis there was a potential of 196 pips, US500 3 points and BTC 95 points profit out of the following 6 events in July 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.
July 2025
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (61 pips / 3 July 2025)
US Jobless Claims (13 pips / 10 July 2025)
USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (76 ticks / 11 July 2025)
US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (16 pips, US500 3 points / 16 July 2025)
US Jobless Claims (19 pips / 24 July 2025)
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (11 pips, BTC 95 points / 30 July 2025)
Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)
You can click on each release for detailed information.
July 2025 U.S. Macro Recap: Market Reactions & Trading Opportunities from Key Economic Reports
July 2025 brought a series of crucial U.S. macroeconomic data releases that impacted forex, futures, and commodities markets—albeit with varied levels of volatility. While none of the individual reports caused major price shocks, traders using Haawks’ ultra-low latency machine-readable data feeds still had multiple profit opportunities across FX pairs, equity indices, and agricultural futures. Below, we break down the most tradable events of the month and how the markets reacted.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – July 3, 2025
Potential Market Move: 61 pips in 26 seconds
USDJPY: +40 pips | EURUSD: -21 pips
The June Employment Situation Report released on July 3 delivered largely in-line results. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000—slightly above the 12-month average—while unemployment remained at 4.1%. Wage growth was modest, with average hourly earnings up 0.2%.
Despite the lack of major surprises, forex markets responded with quick but contained moves ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend. USDJPY spiked 40 pips, while EURUSD slipped 21 pips, highlighting dollar strength tied to steady job creation and earnings stability.
Key sectors driving job gains: State Government (+47K) and Health Care (+39K)
Long-term unemployment: Up 190K to 1.6 million
US Jobless Claims – July 10 & July 24, 2025
Potential Market Move: 13 pips (July 10) | 19 pips (July 24)
Initial claims fell in both reports, but insured unemployment climbed, suggesting labor market strain beneath the surface. Notably:
July 10: USDJPY moved 10 pips, EURUSD 3 pips
July 24: USDJPY moved 14 pips, EURUSD 5 pips
While volatility was limited, traders capitalized on quick directional shifts using Haawks G4A feed. The biggest insured unemployment jumps came from states like New York and New Jersey, while Michigan and Pennsylvania showed improvement.
USDA WASDE Report – July 11, 2025
Potential Market Move: 76 ticks total
Corn: 16 | Wheat: 32 | Soybeans: 28
Agricultural markets offered one of the month’s most robust trading setups. The WASDE report highlighted declining U.S. corn production, increased wheat exports, and rising demand for soybean oil due to biofuel policy changes.
Top Takeaways:
U.S. wheat stocks dipped despite higher output
Corn production forecast cut by 115 million bushels
Soybean crush increased due to biofuel demand
Traders watching grains futures (ZC, WC, ZS) had several opportunities to capture significant price movement within minutes of the release.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) – July 16, 2025
Potential Market Move: 16 pips | US500: 3 points
The June PPI came in flat (0.0%), confirming easing inflation pressures. Goods prices rose slightly, driven by energy, while service prices fell. Core PPI also showed no change, supporting the view that inflation may be under control at the producer level.
Notable price movements:
Communication equipment: +0.8%
Gasoline: +0.6%
Chicken eggs: -21.8%
Though not a high-volatility event, the release still offered tight-window scalping setups in USDJPY, EURUSD, and the S&P 500 (US500).
US GDP Q2 Advance Estimate – July 30, 2025
Potential Market Move: 11 pips | BTC: 95 points
The U.S. economy rebounded sharply in Q2, growing at a 3.0% annualized rate following a Q1 contraction. This surge was fueled by strong consumer spending and reduced imports. Inflation metrics continued to cool, adding to the Fed’s likely data-dependent, wait-and-see stance.
What moved markets most?
Core PCE down to 2.5%
Private inventory investment fell sharply
Cumulative Market Impact – July 2025
Total Potential Trading Movement Captured: 120 pips (FX) + 76 ticks (Grains) + 95 points (BTC) + 3 points (US500)
YTD : 1,164 pips | 2024 Total: 4,305 pips
Final Thoughts: July Was Quiet—but Profitable
Even with modest reactions, July 2025 provided a dozen tradeable windows. The key was speed and precision. Haawks' machine-readable G4A feed ensured that users received economic releases faster than traditional news sources, enabling scalpers and algo traders to extract value even from low-volatility prints.
Traders, prepare for potentially stronger volatility as Q3 unfolds and rate speculation heats back up.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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