According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 11 pips and BTC moved 95 points on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 30 July 2025.
USDJPY (7 pips)
EURUSD (4 pips)
BTC (95 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
U.S. Economy Rebounds in Q2 2025 with 3.0% GDP Growth
After a modest contraction earlier this year, the U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2025, with real gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at an annual rate of 3.0%, according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This marks a sharp reversal from the 0.5% decline in GDP seen in the first quarter.
What Drove the Growth?
The rebound in GDP was largely powered by strong consumer spending and a decline in imports, which helped improve the trade balance. Imports are treated as a subtraction in GDP calculations, so a reduction in imported goods provided a statistical boost to the total.
At the same time, investment and exports both declined, partly offsetting the gains from consumer activity. In particular, private inventory investment dropped significantly, especially in the nondurable goods manufacturing sector (notably chemicals) and wholesale trade, reflecting a broad pullback across durable goods industries.
Consumer Spending: A Bright Spot
Consumer activity remained a key engine of growth. Americans spent more on both services and goods:
Health care (especially outpatient and hospital services)
Food services and accommodations
Financial services, including portfolio management and investment advice
Motor vehicles, especially new light trucks
Pharmaceuticals and other nondurable goods
This increase in spending reflects solid consumer confidence and continued strength in the labor market, as evidenced by employment, earnings, and hours worked data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trade Dynamics
While imports declined, led by a drop in nondurable consumer goods (excluding food and autos, such as pharmaceuticals), exports also fell, primarily due to weaker demand for automotive vehicles and parts.
Price Trends: Inflation Eases
Inflation pressures continued to moderate in Q2:
The gross domestic purchases price index rose 1.9%, down from 3.4% in Q1.
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index increased 2.1%, compared to 3.7% previously.
Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was up 2.5%, slowing from 3.5% in the first quarter.
These figures suggest inflation is cooling, offering some relief to policymakers and consumers alike.
Final Sales and Domestic Demand
One closely watched measure, real final sales to private domestic purchasers (which combines consumer spending and fixed investment), grew just 1.2% in Q2—slower than the 1.9% growth recorded in Q1. This indicates that while headline GDP growth was strong, the underlying demand from households and businesses grew at a more moderate pace.
Looking Ahead
The BEA will release its second estimate of Q2 GDP, along with preliminary corporate profit data, on August 28, 2025. Additionally, a major annual update of the National Economic Accounts is scheduled for September 25, which will include revisions to GDP, income, and industry accounts.
With solid GDP growth and inflation on a cooler trajectory, the U.S. economy appears to be on firmer footing heading into the second half of 2025. However, challenges remain, including global trade uncertainties and persistent softness in business investment.
Stay tuned for updates as more data become available.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
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