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Forex News Trading

September 2026 WASDE: Corn Jumps 52 Ticks, Wheat 32 and Soybeans 28

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis ZC moved 52 ticks, ZW moved 32 ticks and ZS moved 28 ticks (total: 112 ticks) on USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data on 11 September 2026.

1673 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

September WASDE Triggers Fast Grain Moves: Corn +52 Ticks, Wheat +32 and Soybeans +28

USDA cut the U.S. corn crop and tightened corn and soybean balances, while wheat delivered a more mixed global supply picture. CBOT grain futures reacted immediately to the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA WASDE

The September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates produced rapid moves across the major CBOT grain markets as traders processed new USDA forecasts for corn, wheat and soybeans.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 52-tick rise in corn futures (ZC), a 32-tick rise in wheat futures (ZW) and a 28-tick rise in soybean futures (ZS) following the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

The report contained very different signals across the three crops. Corn supplies tightened substantially compared with USDA's August projections. Soybean production increased, but stronger export demand reduced projected ending stocks. U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser.

HAAWKS first read: the initial futures reaction was higher across all three contracts, but the WASDE was not uniformly bullish relative to trade expectations. This is an important distinction for professional news traders: month-to-month USDA revisions and surprise versus consensus are two different signals.

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

CBOT Corn — ZC +52 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Wheat — ZW +32 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Soybeans — ZS +28 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Corn contained the clearest month-over-month tightening in the September report.

USDA reduced the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre, from 180.7 to 178.5 bpa.

Production was cut by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion bushels.

With lower beginning stocks and smaller production only partly offset by reduced feed demand, projected U.S. ending stocks fell from 1.653 billion to 1.567 billion bushels.

U.S. Corn	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	180.7 bpa	178.1 bpa	178.5 bpa	Large cut vs. August, but slightly above consensus.
Production	16.013B bu	15.768B bu	15.800B bu	213M-bushel USDA cut, but slightly above the trade average.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	1.653B bu	1.533B bu	1.567B bu	Tighter month over month, though not as tight as expected.
Season-Average Farm Price	$4.50/bu	—	$4.80/bu	USDA raised the price forecast by $0.30.

Corn takeaway: the balance sheet tightened substantially compared with August, which was supportive, but the headline yield, production and ending stocks figures were all slightly above pre-report trade averages. For a news trader, that makes the release more nuanced than simply calling the corn figures a bullish surprise.

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Soybeans delivered a mixed supply-and-demand signal.

USDA increased the soybean yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre and raised production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion bushels.

That increase in supply was more than absorbed by stronger demand. USDA raised projected soybean exports by 25 million bushels to approximately 1.685 billion bushels.

As a result, projected ending stocks actually declined from 320 million to 310 million bushels.

U.S. Soybeans	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	52.7 bpa	52.5 bpa	52.8 bpa	Higher than both August and the trade average.
Production	4.519B bu	4.492B bu	4.535B bu	Larger crop than traders expected.
Exports	1.660B bu	—	1.685B bu	USDA raised exports by 25M bushels.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	320M bu	289M bu	310M bu	Lower than August, but above the trade average.
Season-Average Farm Price	$11.40/bu	—	$12.00/bu	USDA raised its price projection by $0.60.

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Wheat was arguably the most interesting market response because the underlying WASDE changes were less supportive than the immediate 32-tick upward move might suggest.

USDA left aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use unchanged. Production remained at 1.531 billion bushels and ending stocks remained at 717 million bushels.

USDA did make changes within wheat classes. White wheat exports were raised by 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter exports were reduced by 15 million and Hard Red Spring exports by 5 million.

The season-average wheat price was increased by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel.

Globally, however, wheat supplies increased substantially. USDA raised production forecasts for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, while world ending stocks increased to approximately 276.3 million metric tons.

Wheat Measure	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
U.S. Production	1.531B bu	—	1.531B bu	Unchanged.
U.S. Ending Stocks	717M bu	720M bu	717M bu	Slightly below the average trade estimate.
World Ending Stocks	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	The clearest bearish supply surprise among the three crops.
U.S. Farm Price	$6.20/bu	—	$6.40/bu	Raised by $0.20.

Wheat takeaway: the immediate 32-tick ZW rally should not be interpreted as proof that the WASDE itself was fundamentally bullish for wheat. Global wheat supplies and ending stocks increased, while the U.S. balance was essentially unchanged. Positioning, order flow and the interaction of multiple USDA data points can matter during the first seconds after a major agricultural release.

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

The global balance sheets provided an important counterweight to the tighter U.S. corn and soybean figures.

2026/27 Global Ending Stocks	August USDA	Trade Estimate	September USDA	Signal vs. Consensus
Corn	274.7 MMT	about 271.9 MMT	272.1 MMT	Much tighter vs. August, but slightly above expectations.
Soybeans	124.2 MMT	about 123.1 MMT	124.0 MMT	Slightly tighter month over month, but above consensus.
Wheat	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	Significantly above expectations.

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

WASDE is not one number. Yield, production, exports, domestic use, ending stocks, global stocks and price forecasts arrive together. Different trading models may assign different weights to each field.

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Corn production fell by 213M bushels from USDA's August estimate, while U.S. corn ending stocks declined by 86M bushels. Those are substantial directional changes even though the final figures were slightly above trade consensus.

Consensus Matters Too

Professional traders also compare the published figures with pre-report expectations. A number can tighten relative to last month and still be less bullish than traders anticipated.

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Futures prices reflect existing positions as well as fundamentals. Stop orders, hedging flows, spread positions and thin liquidity immediately after a release can amplify short-duration moves.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

The HAAWKS measurements describe the immediate release-window reaction. They should not be confused with the direction of grain futures over the entire trading day.

HAAWKS recorded upward moves of 52 ticks in ZC, 32 ticks in ZW and 28 ticks in ZS following the USDA release.

Later in the session, grain markets reassessed the complete balance sheets. CME noted that corn and soybean futures ultimately finished the week lower, illustrating how an initial data-release move can differ from the subsequent market trend.

News-trader takeaway: release-window trading measures how prices respond when new information first enters the market. Later price action reflects additional interpretation, positioning, liquidity and broader market factors.

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

Unlike a simple one-number economic release, WASDE contains hundreds of interconnected supply-and-demand fields. A professional system needs to identify which numbers changed and which differences matter most.

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

U.S. corn supplies tightened materially while world corn stocks still came in slightly above expectations. Wheat provided an even clearer example: U.S. ending stocks were slightly below the trade average, while world stocks were sharply above it.

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Comparing September with August tells a trader how USDA changed its fundamental outlook. Comparing September with market expectations tells a trader how surprising the new information actually was.

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Receiving the report quickly is valuable, but an automated system must also correctly map the crop, marketing year, country, unit and balance sheet field before acting.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 52-, 32- and 28-tick figures represent historical measured price movement. Actual results depend on market depth, latency, spread, slippage, execution venue, order type and risk management.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 2026 WASDE triggered rapid price movement across all three major CBOT grain contracts monitored by HAAWKS.

HAAWKS measured approximately 52 ticks higher in corn futures, 32 ticks higher in wheat futures and 28 ticks higher in soybeans in the immediate release window.

Corn showed the clearest month-over-month tightening. USDA cut the national yield to 178.5 bpa, lowered production by 213 million bushels and reduced projected ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels.

Soybean production increased to 4.535 billion bushels, but higher exports reduced ending stocks to 310 million bushels.

U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser and world ending stocks rose to roughly 276.3 million metric tons.

The release therefore provides an important lesson for professional news traders: the initial price reaction cannot always be explained by one headline number or even by a simple bullish-versus-bearish label.

Low-latency access to structured USDA data allows trading systems to compare many fields simultaneously — current values, previous estimates, consensus expectations and global balances — while the market is still repricing.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Machine-Readable Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered via API access in Chicago, New York and London for professional and latency-sensitive news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 11, 2026
Official source for U.S. and world corn, wheat and soybean supply-and-demand forecasts.
USDA — WASDE Report
Official WASDE publication page and release schedule.
Price Futures Group — September 11 Grain Report
Reproduces the pre-report analyst averages and ranges for U.S. production, yield and ending stocks used in this analysis.
DTN — USDA Lowers Corn Yield 2.2 BPA, Slightly Increases Soy Yield
Independent post-release analysis of the September WASDE and Crop Production reports.
CME Group — Corn and Soybean Futures React to Latest WASDE Estimates
Used for broader post-release grain-market context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate market reactions: ZC +52 ticks, ZW +32 ticks and ZS +28 ticks.

Built for traders who compete on speed. HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data via API infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Explore the feed, share your feedback, or contact us to request a free trial for financial institutions.

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Comment

August 2026 CPI: Hotter Core CPI Sends US500 Down 48 Ticks and Gold Down 19 Points

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis US500 moved 48 ticks and XAUUSD 19 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2026.

1561 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

US500 (48 ticks)

XAUUSD (19 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Hotter Core CPI Sends US500 Down 48 Ticks and Gold Down 19 Points

August U.S. inflation data delivered a hotter-than-expected core CPI reading, triggering an immediate hawkish repricing across equities, gold and interest-rate expectations.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • U.S. Consumer Price Index

The August 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index delivered a mixed headline but a more important upside surprise in underlying inflation.

Headline CPI increased 0.4% month over month, in line with expectations, while the annual rate stood at 3.4%.

The more market-sensitive core measure increased 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% consensus forecast. Core inflation was 2.4% year over year.

HAAWKS first read: the headline CPI result itself was not the key surprise. The immediate hawkish signal came primarily from the hotter 0.3% core CPI reading versus 0.2% expected. HAAWKS measured an initial 48-tick decline in US500 and 19-point decline in XAU/USD.

August CPI: Estimates vs. Actual

Headline CPI MoM +0.4% Expected: +0.4%

Headline CPI YoY 3.4% Expected: 3.4%

Core CPI MoM +0.3% Expected: +0.2%

Core CPI YoY 2.4% Expected: 2.4%

Inflation Measure	Consensus	Actual	HAAWKS News-Trader Read
Headline CPI MoM	+0.4%	+0.4%	Matched expectations and therefore provided little standalone surprise.
Headline CPI YoY	3.4%	3.4%	Annual headline inflation remained elevated.
Core CPI MoM	+0.2%	+0.3%	The key upside surprise and the most clearly hawkish element of the release.
Core CPI YoY	2.4%	2.4%	Matched expectations.

Immediate Market Reaction

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis captured an immediate downside reaction in both US500 and gold following the 8:30 a.m. ET inflation release.

US500 −48 Ticks Immediate release-window decline

XAU/USD −19 Points Immediate release-window decline

Market	Measured Move	Direction	News-Trader Interpretation
US500	48 ticks	Lower	The hotter core CPI increased expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, initially pressuring equities.
XAU/USD	19 points	Lower	Higher expected policy rates reduced the immediate appeal of non-yielding gold.

Why the Core CPI Number Mattered Most

For news traders, this release provides another example of why headline inflation cannot be read in isolation.

Headline CPI at 0.4% was in line with expectations. If that had been the only relevant data point, the inflation release would have contained relatively little immediate surprise.

Core CPI told a different story. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% during August instead of the 0.2% economists had expected.

That difference strengthened the view that underlying inflation pressure remained persistent enough to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

HAAWKS view: the initial US500 and gold reaction was driven less by the headline CPI number, which broadly matched expectations, and more by the upside surprise in monthly core inflation and its implications for interest rates.

What Drove August Inflation?

CPI Component	August MoM	12-Month Change	HAAWKS Read-Through
All Items	+0.4%	+3.4%	Headline monthly inflation accelerated.
Core CPI	+0.3%	+2.4%	Monthly core inflation exceeded consensus.
Energy	+2.1%	+16.3%	Energy remained an important source of headline inflation pressure.
Gasoline	+3.9%	+27.4%	Gasoline accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in headline CPI.
Shelter	+0.3%	+3.0%	Shelter accelerated from the previous month.
Food	+0.1%	+2.7%	Food inflation remained comparatively moderate.
Services Less Energy Services	+0.3%	+3.0%	Continued services inflation remained relevant to the underlying inflation picture.

Gasoline Drove Part of the Headline Increase

Energy prices were an important contributor to August inflation. The energy index increased 2.1% during the month.

Gasoline prices increased 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the all-items CPI. Over the previous 12 months, gasoline prices increased 27.4%.

Fuel oil also increased sharply during the month, while other energy components were less inflationary.

Underlying Inflation Was Broader Than Energy

The core inflation increase was distributed across several categories, reinforcing the importance of looking beyond volatile energy prices.

Shelter increased 0.3%, while several transportation and service categories also recorded price increases.

This combination helped explain why the monthly core figure exceeded expectations despite some categories continuing to show weaker price pressure.

The Federal Reserve Repricing

The CPI report arrived shortly before the September Federal Reserve policy decision, increasing its significance for rate-sensitive markets.

Recent employment data had already demonstrated stronger labor-market conditions. The hotter core CPI figure added another argument for maintaining tighter monetary policy.

Core CPI Beat Expectations

A 0.3% monthly increase compared with 0.2% expected was the clearest hawkish surprise in the report.

Energy Inflation Accelerated

Energy increased 2.1%, with gasoline up 3.9%, keeping headline inflation pressure elevated.

Shelter Increased 0.3%

Shelter remained an important component of underlying consumer inflation.

Policy Expectations Changed

The combination of stronger employment data and firmer core inflation reinforced expectations for restrictive monetary policy.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Trading Session

News traders should distinguish the immediate release-window response from subsequent full-session market performance.

HAAWKS measured an initial 48-tick decline in US500 and a 19-point decline in XAU/USD around the CPI release.

Markets can subsequently retrace or reverse these initial moves as liquidity normalizes, traders reassess individual components and additional market information enters prices.

News-trader takeaway: release-window analysis measures the market's first response to new information. It should not be confused with the direction or size of the move over the entire trading session.

What This CPI Release Shows News Traders

Actual vs. Consensus Is the Primary Signal

Headline CPI at 0.4% carried limited surprise because it matched expectations. Core CPI at 0.3% mattered because the market had expected only 0.2%.

Headline and Core CPI Can Send Different Signals

A professional news-trading system should distinguish all-items CPI from the core measure. Each field can have a different surprise magnitude and a different effect on interest-rate expectations.

Component Data Adds Context

Gasoline, energy, shelter and service-price components help traders understand whether inflation pressure is concentrated in volatile categories or is becoming more broadly distributed.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Matters

The initial simultaneous declines in US500 and gold were consistent with a more hawkish interpretation of the inflation data.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 48-tick US500 and 19-point XAU/USD moves represent measured historical price movement. Actual execution can differ materially due to latency, spreads, liquidity, slippage, order type and execution venue.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The August CPI report delivered a more nuanced result than the headline number alone suggested.

Headline CPI increased 0.4%, broadly matching market expectations, while annual inflation stood at 3.4%.

The key market-moving surprise was core CPI, which increased 0.3% month over month against expectations for 0.2%.

Energy also accelerated, with gasoline increasing 3.9%, while shelter prices rose 0.3%.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 48-tick decline in US500 and 19-point decline in XAU/USD following the release.

For professional news traders, the release demonstrates why receiving only the headline CPI figure is not enough. Headline CPI, core CPI, expectations and individual components need to be processed together to identify the actual surprise and understand the market's initial interpretation.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Built for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable data for U.S. macroeconomic and commodity releases, together with macroeconomic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey, as well as ECB interest-rate decisions and statements.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, August 2026
Official source for headline CPI, core CPI and detailed inflation components.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate release-window movements of 48 ticks in US500 and 19 points in XAU/USD.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

EIA Petroleum Report Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

September 10, 2026

According to our analysis crude oil moved 39 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 10 September 2026.

1513 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Early EIA Petroleum Data Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

The market reacted to EIA's early Weekly Petroleum Status Report data before publication of the full report, as a smaller-than-expected crude draw and surprise gasoline and distillate builds delivered a bearish inventory signal.

September 10, 2026 • Early release: 12:00 p.m. ET • WTI Crude Oil

On September 10, 2026, WTI crude oil reacted immediately when the first EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report data became available at 12:00 p.m. ET — before publication of the complete report later in the day.

The early EIA overview and petroleum tables already contained the high-value fields news traders needed to assess the release: commercial crude stocks, gasoline, distillates, Cushing inventories, refinery inputs and utilization, production, imports, exports and product supplied.

Commercial crude stocks declined by only 391,000 barrels, substantially less than the approximately 1.55 million-barrel draw expected in a Reuters analyst survey.

At the same time, gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly increased, reinforcing the initial bearish interpretation.

HAAWKS release-window analysis: the early petroleum data triggered approximately 30 ticks of downside movement in WTI crude oil. The price reaction occurred before traders needed to wait for the complete WPSR PDF and HTML publication.

Why the Early EIA Release Matters to News Traders

The important distinction: EIA does not require traders to wait for the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report before key petroleum statistics become available.

The early release includes the WPSR summary, overview and core statistical tables. The remaining full-report PDF and HTML material is published later.

For traditional analysis, waiting for the complete report may make little difference. For latency-sensitive news trading, however, the distinction is critical.

The market can begin repricing as soon as the key inventory and supply fields become public. By the time a trader manually opens and reads the complete report, part of the initial market reaction may already have taken place.

HAAWKS view: for WPSR news trading, the relevant event is the first public dissemination of the market-moving data — not the later appearance of the full formatted report.

Key Inventory Surprises at 12:00 p.m. ET

Commercial Crude −0.391M Reuters estimate: −1.55M barrels

Gasoline +1.269M StreetInsider estimate: −1.09M

Distillates +2.087M StreetInsider estimate: −0.632M

Cushing −0.684M WTI delivery hub

Inventory Field	Market Estimate	Actual	Surprise	News-Trader Read
Commercial Crude Oil	−1.55M Reuters survey	−0.391M	Smaller draw	Bearish relative to expectations despite the negative headline inventory change.
Gasoline	−1.09M StreetInsider estimate	+1.269M	Build vs. expected draw	A large bearish swing relative to expectations.
Distillates	−0.632M StreetInsider estimate	+2.087M	Build vs. expected draw	Another clear bearish product-inventory surprise.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	−0.684M	Draw	A bullish counter-signal because Cushing is the delivery point for NYMEX WTI futures.

WTI Falls 30 Ticks on the Early Data

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis recorded an immediate downside reaction as the petroleum figures entered the market.

30 WTI Crude Oil Ticks Lower

HAAWKS measured the move following the 12:00 p.m. ET early EIA petroleum-data release on September 10, 2026.

The reaction illustrates an important principle in petroleum news trading: a negative crude-stock number is not automatically bullish.

What matters is the difference between the actual data and what the market had already priced in.

Traders expected a materially larger crude draw. Instead, inventories fell by only 391,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillates simultaneously moved in the opposite direction from expectations and posted inventory builds.

What Was Already Available in the Early Overview?

The early EIA overview contained considerably more information than the three headline inventory figures.

Early-Release Data Point	Current Week	Previous Week	Change / Context
Commercial Crude Stocks	424.1M barrels	424.5M barrels	Approximately −0.4M barrels
Cushing Crude Stocks	21.8M barrels	22.5M barrels	Approximately −0.7M barrels
Gasoline Stocks	206.9M barrels	205.7M barrels	Approximately +1.3M barrels
Distillate Stocks	106.3M barrels	104.2M barrels	Approximately +2.1M barrels
Total Commercial Petroleum Stocks Ex-SPR	1,248.6M barrels	1,242.3M barrels	+6.3M barrels
Refinery Crude Inputs	17.586M b/d	17.496M b/d	+91K b/d
Refinery Utilization	97.8%	98.0%	Refineries remained near very high utilization levels.
U.S. Crude Production	13.947M b/d	13.862M b/d	+85K b/d

In other words, a news-trading system did not need the later full report to know that crude inventories disappointed expectations, product inventories built, Cushing drew, refinery utilization remained very high and U.S. crude production increased.

Imports, Exports and Supply Added More Context

The early overview also showed a material change in crude trade flows.

Crude Supply Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Crude Imports	6.824M b/d	6.770M b/d	+53K b/d
Crude Exports	3.417M b/d	4.483M b/d	−1.066M b/d
Net Crude Imports	3.407M b/d	2.287M b/d	+1.119M b/d

The large decline in crude exports and increase in net imports helped explain why domestic commercial crude stocks registered only a small draw despite exceptionally high refinery runs.

Demand Indicators Were Also Available Before the Full Report

The overview included product-supplied statistics, giving news traders an immediate view of implied petroleum demand.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY
Total Products	19.313M b/d	20.119M b/d	−3.7%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.551M b/d	8.801M b/d	−1.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.678M b/d	3.715M b/d	−2.6%
Jet Fuel	1.785M b/d	1.731M b/d	−2.3%

Why the Initial WTI Signal Was Bearish

Crude Drew Less Than Expected

The market expected a substantially larger decline in commercial crude stocks. A 391K draw was therefore bearish relative to the consensus expectation despite being a draw in absolute terms.

Gasoline Swung to a Build

Gasoline inventories increased by approximately 1.27M barrels versus expectations for a decline. That created one of the clearest bearish surprises in the early data.

Distillates Also Built

Distillate inventories increased by approximately 2.09M barrels rather than posting the expected draw, reinforcing the product-side bearish signal.

Total Commercial Stocks Rose

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 6.3M barrels during the week, providing broader evidence of inventory accumulation.

But the Release Was Not Bearish in Every Detail

Professional news traders also had to process several opposing signals.

Cushing inventories fell by approximately 684,000 barrels, which was supportive for WTI because Cushing is the NYMEX crude futures delivery point.

Refineries were also operating at a very high 97.8% utilization rate, with crude inputs of 17.586 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, early EIA summary information showed gasoline and distillate inventories still below their respective five-year seasonal averages despite the week's builds.

HAAWKS view: the dominant immediate surprise was bearish because crude missed the expected draw and both major refined-product categories built. However, the Cushing draw and historically tight product inventories provided counter-signals that a complete trading model should not ignore.

What This Release Shows Professional News Traders

The Market Does Not Wait for the Full PDF

The key trading information was already public in the early overview, summary and statistical tables. The later complete report added presentation and additional context, but the principal inventory surprises were already available to the market.

Machine-Readable Fields Matter

A WPSR strategy may need to process crude inventories, Cushing stocks, gasoline, distillates, production, refinery utilization, imports, exports and product supplied at virtually the same time.

Consensus Is Essential

A crude draw is not automatically bullish. The 391K decline was bearish relative to expectations because traders had positioned for a much larger draw.

Different Fields Can Conflict

National crude and product inventories produced a bearish initial signal, while Cushing inventories produced a bullish one. News traders need rules for weighting conflicting data rather than reacting to only one field.

Low Latency Is About the First Public Data

For latency-sensitive trading, the relevant workflow begins when the earliest official data become available. Waiting for a later formatted report can mean waiting until after the first market repricing has already occurred.

The 30-Tick Reaction Was Not the Full-Day Oil Story

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of downside WTI movement in response to the early EIA data.

That should be separated from the broader September 10 oil session. Global crude prices were simultaneously being driven by severe geopolitical supply risks.

WTI ultimately settled above $100 per barrel and rose more than 6% on the day as attacks on shipping and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure increased concerns about global supply disruptions.

News-trading distinction: a release-window move measures the immediate repricing caused by a specific data event. It does not necessarily predict the direction of the market for the remainder of the trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 10 EIA release provides a useful example of why publication timing matters for professional news traders.

The market-moving petroleum data were available at 12:00 p.m. ET, before publication of the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Commercial crude stocks declined by 391,000 barrels, considerably less than expected. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.269 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 2.087 million barrels.

Total commercial petroleum stocks excluding the SPR increased by 6.3 million barrels, while Cushing crude stocks provided a counter-signal with a roughly 684,000-barrel draw.

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of immediate downside movement in WTI crude oil following the early release.

For professional news traders, the lesson is straightforward: the trading event begins when the first official machine-readable information enters the market — not when the complete report becomes convenient to read manually.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Low-Latency Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered in structured machine-readable format via API access in Chicago, New York and London, supporting professional and latency-sensitive automated news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Official EIA source for the September 10, 2026 petroleum data covering the week ending September 4.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report Release Schedule
EIA publication schedule explaining the earlier release of the WPSR summary, overview and core tables ahead of the remaining full-report PDF and HTML files.
Reuters — September 10, 2026 Oil Market Report
Source for the Reuters analyst expectation of a 1.55M-barrel crude draw and broader oil-market context.
StreetInsider — EIA Inventory Release, September 10, 2026
Timestamped at 12:00 p.m. EDT and used for the product inventory consensus estimates: gasoline −1.09M barrels and distillates −0.632M barrels.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 10, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 30-tick WTI crude oil reaction.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

August 2026 NFP Surprise: US500 Drops 68 Ticks and Gold Falls 57 Points

September 4, 2026

According to our analysis XAUUSD (spot gold) moved 57 points and US500 moved 68 ticks on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 4 September 2026.

1483 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

XAUUSD (57 points)

US500 (68 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

August NFP Surprise Sends US500 Down 68 Ticks and Gold Down 57 Points

U.S. payroll growth nearly tripled expectations, triggering a rapid hawkish repricing across rate-sensitive markets as traders increased expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.

September 4, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • U.S. Employment Situation

The August 2026 U.S. Employment Situation delivered a major upside surprise for news traders. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000, almost three times the 56,000 consensus forecast.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, while labor-force participation recovered to 61.6%. Previous payroll estimates were also revised higher, strengthening the overall labor-market signal.

The immediate market response was notably different from the weak July jobs report. Instead of falling yields, dollar weakness and stronger gold, the August data prompted traders to price a greater probability of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

HAAWKS release-window analysis: US500 moved approximately 68 ticks lower, while XAU/USD fell approximately 57 points as the stronger-than-expected employment report drove a rapid hawkish repricing.

August NFP: Estimates vs. Actual

Nonfarm Payrolls +162K Consensus: +56K

Unemployment Rate 4.1% Consensus: 4.1%

Wage Growth YoY 3.1% July: 3.2%

June + July Revisions +55K Combined upward revision

Labor Indicator	Expectation / Prior	Actual	HAAWKS News-Trader Read
Nonfarm Payrolls	+56K expected	+162K	A 106K upside surprise and the strongest headline component of the release.
Unemployment Rate	4.1% expected	4.1%	Unchanged and in line with consensus.
Labor Force Participation	61.4% prior	61.6%	Participation rebounded while the labor force expanded, strengthening the quality of the headline result.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM	—	+0.3%	Wage growth remained moderate despite the payroll surge.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.0% expected	3.1%	Slightly above consensus, but slower than July's 3.2%.
June + July Revisions	Previously reported levels	+55K	Upward revisions reinforced the stronger current-month signal.

The Revisions Added to the Surprise

The payroll headline was already substantially stronger than expected, but the revisions made the release more hawkish.

June payroll growth was revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000. July was revised up by 44,000, transforming the previously reported −23,000 decline into a +21,000 increase.

Together, the two prior months contained 55,000 more jobs than previously reported.

HAAWKS view: this was not simply a +162K headline. News traders received a large upside surprise in current payrolls, an increase in participation and positive revisions to both prior months. Several important employment fields therefore reinforced the same stronger-labor-market signal.

Immediate Market Reaction

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis captured a sharp downside reaction in both U.S. equities and gold immediately following the 8:30 a.m. ET release.

US500 −68 Ticks Strong jobs data increased expectations for tighter Fed policy

XAU/USD −57 Points Rising yields and a stronger dollar pressured gold

Market	Measured Reaction	Direction	News-Trader Interpretation
US500	68 ticks	Lower	The stronger jobs report increased expectations that the Fed could tighten monetary policy, creating a "good news is bad news" response in equities.
XAU/USD	57 points	Lower	Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and increased Fed hike expectations reduced demand for non-yielding gold.

Why Did US500 and Gold Fall?

Payrolls Beat by 106K

Economists expected only 56,000 new jobs. The 162,000 actual result created a very large upside surprise for algorithmic and discretionary news traders to process.

Prior Months Were Revised Higher

June and July payroll growth was revised up by 55,000 combined. That reduced concerns that the previous slowdown represented a rapidly deteriorating labor market.

Participation Improved

Labor-force participation rose from 61.4% to 61.6% while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The labor force increased substantially during the month.

Fed Hike Expectations Increased

The strong labor data gave policymakers more room to focus on inflation. Rate markets increased the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike after the release.

Where the Jobs Came From

The employment rebound was concentrated in several areas that had been weak in previous months.

Industry	August Employment Change	HAAWKS Read-Through
Food Services & Drinking Places	+59K	The largest highlighted source of employment growth.
Local Government Education	+42K	Largely reversed the prior month's decline.
Construction	+22K	BLS characterized overall construction employment as little changed, with strength in nonresidential specialty trades.
Manufacturing	+16K	Continued an upward employment trend.
Health Care	+13K	Continued to add jobs, although below its prior 12-month average pace.
Information	−23K	The principal highlighted sector showing employment losses.

Strong Jobs, but Wage Inflation Stayed Moderate

One feature prevented the report from being uniformly inflationary. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year.

Annual wage growth therefore slowed slightly from July's 3.2%. That distinction mattered because the report showed stronger employment without a corresponding acceleration in wage inflation.

For news traders, this created an important second layer to the release. The payroll and revision fields were clearly hawkish, while the wage data provided a modest counterweight.

The Fed Repricing

Before the report, markets were already debating whether persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its September meeting.

The stronger employment data increased the probability of a rate hike. Reuters reported that short-term rate futures moved to imply roughly a 59% probability of a September increase immediately after the report, compared with approximately 55% beforehand.

Treasury yields rose and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Those moves created a difficult combination for both gold and rate-sensitive equities.

News-trader takeaway: the market was not trading +162K jobs in isolation. It was trading the impact of +162K payrolls, +55K in revisions, stronger participation and steady unemployment on the expected path of Federal Reserve policy.

What This Release Shows News Traders

Consensus Matters as Much as the Actual Number

A +162K payroll result means little without knowing that the market expected only +56K. The surprise relative to expectations was the immediate trading catalyst.

Revisions Can Strengthen or Reverse a Signal

July had originally been reported as a 23,000 employment decline. The September release revised that result to a 21,000 increase. That 44,000 adjustment materially changed the historical employment picture.

Multiple Fields Need to Be Processed Together

Payrolls, unemployment, participation, wages and prior-month revisions arrived as part of the same release. Professional news-trading systems therefore benefit from receiving the complete data set rather than only the headline NFP number.

Good Economic News Can Be Bad Market News

Stronger employment would normally be supportive for economic growth, but in an environment where traders are focused on inflation and monetary policy, stronger data can increase expected interest rates and pressure equities and gold.

Execution Risk Remains Critical

The 68-tick US500 and 57-point XAU/USD figures represent measured historical price movement, not guaranteed executable profit. Spreads, liquidity, slippage, order type, venue and data latency can materially affect actual trading results.

What Comes Next?

Following the strong employment report, attention shifted immediately toward U.S. inflation data and the September Federal Reserve meeting. With labor-market weakness becoming less of a constraint, inflation readings gained even greater importance for the policy decision.

The next U.S. Employment Situation, covering September 2026, is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The August 2026 Employment Situation delivered a substantially stronger U.S. labor-market signal than traders had expected.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 against a consensus forecast of only 56,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, participation increased to 61.6%, and June and July payroll growth was revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs.

The release strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy in September. Treasury yields and the dollar moved higher, while rate-sensitive assets came under immediate pressure.

HAAWKS measured approximately 68 ticks of downside movement in US500 and 57 points in XAU/USD following the release.

For professional news traders, the event demonstrates why low-latency access to both the headline number and the supporting data fields is important. Payrolls, expectations, revisions, wages, unemployment and participation combined to determine the market interpretation within seconds.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Built for Professional News Traders

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, August 2026
Official source for payroll employment, unemployment, participation, wages, industry employment and payroll revisions.
Reuters — U.S. job growth expected to rebound in August
Used for the pre-release economist consensus of +56K payrolls, 4.1% unemployment and 3.0% annual wage growth.
Reuters — U.S. nonfarm payrolls surge in August
Used for post-release labor-market and Federal Reserve context.
Reuters — Strong August jobs report sends yields higher
Used for immediate rates, dollar, equities and gold market reaction.
Reuters — Gold slides after robust U.S. payrolls
Used for gold-market and Federal Reserve rate-expectation context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 4, 2026
Used for the measured release-window movements in US500 and XAU/USD.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

August 10, 2026

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

HAAWKS is introducing seven new machine-readable CES benchmark revision data points as research shows U.S. payroll benchmark revisions have become materially larger in recent years.

HAAWKS G4A CES benchmark revisions research showing seven new machine-readable data points and larger U.S. payroll revisions in 2024 and 2025

HAAWKS Research

New G4A Data Points

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: Why Payroll Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

Ahead of the August 28, 2026 preliminary CES benchmark release, HAAWKS is expanding its low-latency machine-readable U.S. labor-market coverage with seven new benchmark-revision data points.

August 2026 • 7 new machine-readable data points • CES Benchmark Revisions

HAAWKS G4A will introduce machine-readable coverage of the Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark Revision and the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, giving professional news traders direct access to some of the most important annual revisions to U.S. payroll employment data.

Most news traders know the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. Fewer focus on the annual benchmark process that determines how closely the sample-based Current Employment Statistics estimates match more comprehensive employment counts.

That benchmark process has become increasingly relevant. HAAWKS research covering the 2016–2025 preliminary benchmark revisions shows that the magnitude of the revisions has increased materially in recent years, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Next release: BLS is scheduled to publish the March 2026 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision on Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary announcement does not immediately revise the official monthly CES employment series.

Seven New HAAWKS G4A Data Points

HAAWKS will initially disseminate two machine-readable fields from the preliminary benchmark release and five fields from the annual benchmark revision.

CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision Next release: August 28, 2026 — 10:00 a.m. ET

2 New Data Points

Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.

CES Annual Benchmark Revision Next release: February 2027 — exact BLS date pending

5 New Data Points

Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total nonfarm employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total nonfarm employment annual revision, December of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands, observation status preliminary.

BLS has confirmed that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be incorporated with the January 2027 Employment Situation release in February 2027. The exact release date has not yet been published on the official BLS calendar.

What Is a CES Benchmark Revision?

The monthly Current Employment Statistics survey estimates payroll employment from a sample of businesses and government agencies. Each year, those estimates are benchmarked against more comprehensive employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW.

QCEW counts are derived primarily from state unemployment-insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. BLS defines the benchmark revision as the difference between the March universe count and the corresponding sample-based CES employment estimate, after accounting for changes in employment scope.

Important for news traders: a preliminary benchmark revision is not the same thing as a monthly NFP revision and it is not a direct estimate of how many jobs were created during the year. It is a revision to the estimated March employment level.

Preliminary Does Not Mean the Monthly Series Changes Immediately

The August preliminary release provides an early estimate of the benchmark difference, but BLS does not immediately rewrite the official CES monthly employment series using that number.

The benchmark is incorporated later as part of the annual benchmark process. This distinction is particularly important for automated news trading systems: the preliminary benchmark is new information about the estimated employment level, while the later annual release actually incorporates benchmark and seasonal-adjustment changes into the historical CES series.

The 2025 benchmark provides a useful example. In September 2025, BLS estimated a preliminary total nonfarm revision of −911,000 jobs, or −0.6%, for March 2025. When the annual benchmark was incorporated in February 2026, the final not-seasonally-adjusted March revision was −862,000, or −0.5%. The seasonally adjusted March employment level was revised by −898,000.

In other words, the preliminary release can provide a powerful signal, but news traders also need to distinguish it from the later official benchmarked series.

HAAWKS Research: Preliminary Revisions 2016–2025

HAAWKS reviewed 10 years of national preliminary CES benchmark revisions. Negative figures indicate that the previously published CES employment level was above the preliminary benchmark estimate.

Benchmark Year	Total Nonfarm Revision	Total Nonfarm %	Total Private Revision	Total Private %
2016	−150K	−0.1%	−224K	−0.2%
2017	+95K	+0.1%	+98K	+0.1%
2018	+43K	<+0.05%	−17K	<−0.05%
2019	−501K	−0.3%	−514K	−0.4%
2020	−173K	−0.1%	−229K	−0.2%
2021	−166K	−0.1%	−421K	−0.3%
2022	+462K	+0.3%	+571K	+0.4%
2023	−306K	−0.2%	−358K	−0.3%
2024	−818K	−0.5%	−819K	−0.6%
2025	−911K	−0.6%	−880K	−0.7%

The two largest preliminary revisions in the 10-year sample occurred in 2024 and 2025 for both total nonfarm and total private employment.

Revision Magnitudes Have Increased Recently

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.12% First five-year window

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.34% 2.83× the prior window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.18% First five-year window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.46% 2.56× the prior window

Statistic, 2016–2025	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Mean Signed Revision	−0.15%	−0.22%
Mean Absolute Revision	0.23%	0.32%
Median Absolute Revision	0.15%	0.30%
Sample Standard Deviation	0.27 percentage points	0.33 percentage points
Mean Absolute Revision, 2016–2020	0.12%	0.18%
Mean Absolute Revision, 2021–2025	0.34%	0.46%
Increase Between Five-Year Windows	2.83×	2.56×
Largest Absolute Revision	0.6% — 2025	0.7% — 2025
Second Largest	0.5% — 2024	0.6% — 2024

Is the Increase Statistically Significant?

HAAWKS also tested whether the absolute size of preliminary revisions has been trending upward over the full 2016–2025 period.

Simple Linear Trend	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Increase Per Year	+0.050 percentage points	+0.058 percentage points
R²	0.61	0.67
p-value	0.007	0.004
95% Confidence Interval	+0.018 to +0.083 points/year	+0.025 to +0.091 points/year

On the complete 10-year sample, the upward trend in absolute revision size is statistically detectable.

However, there is an important qualification: the result is heavily influenced by the exceptionally large revisions in 2024 and 2025. Removing those two years causes the trend to lose conventional statistical significance.

Excluding 2024 and 2025: the trend-test p-value rises to 0.217 for total nonfarm and 0.115 for total private. The evidence therefore supports a recent increase in revision magnitude rather than a smooth, firmly established long-term trend.

Direction of the Revisions

Total Nonfarm

Seven of the 10 preliminary benchmark years were negative, two were positive and one was effectively near zero in percentage terms. The last three observations — 2023, 2024 and 2025 — were all negative.

Total Private

Eight of the 10 revisions were negative, including the very small −17,000 revision in 2018, while only 2017 and 2022 were positive. The largest negative percentage revision was −0.7% in 2025.

Why Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

They Can Change the Employment Narrative

A large negative benchmark estimate can indicate that previously published payroll employment levels overstated the underlying employment count, potentially changing how traders assess labor market momentum.

They Can Affect Fed Expectations

Labor-market strength is a major input into monetary-policy expectations. A materially different benchmark can therefore affect the market's interpretation of the employment outlook and the expected path of interest rates.

The Preliminary Release Is a Separate Event

The August preliminary benchmark is released independently from the normal 8:30 a.m. monthly NFP release. For 2026, the national preliminary benchmark is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on August 28.

The Annual Release Arrives With NFP

The final annual benchmark is incorporated with the January Employment Situation in February. News-trading systems therefore need to distinguish current-month payroll data from benchmark and historical-revision fields arriving in the same release.

HAAWKS view: benchmark data deserve their own structured fields. A large benchmark revision can change the historical employment picture even when the current monthly NFP headline receives most of the attention. For low-latency news traders, identifying the exact field, observation period, seasonal-adjustment status and preliminary or final status is essential.

Preliminary vs. Annual Benchmark: What Traders Need to Distinguish

Feature	Preliminary Benchmark	Annual / Final Benchmark
Typical Timing	Late August / early September	February with January Employment Situation
Key Reference Month	March	March, plus revised historical monthly series
Preliminary Release Updates Official CES Series?	No	Yes
HAAWKS Initial Coverage	2 machine-readable fields	5 machine-readable fields
News-Trading Focus	Size and direction of the preliminary benchmark difference	Final benchmark plus revised seasonally adjusted employment levels

HAAWKS Conclusion

HAAWKS is adding seven machine-readable CES benchmark-revision data points to expand G4A coverage of the U.S. labor market beyond the standard monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Two fields will cover the annual CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision, beginning with the March 2026 benchmark scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Five additional fields will cover the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, including March benchmark revisions and seasonally adjusted March and December employment revisions.

The historical evidence explains why these numbers deserve attention. From 2016–2020, the average absolute preliminary total-nonfarm revision was only 0.12%. In 2021–2025, it increased to 0.34%. For total private employment, the corresponding increase was from 0.18% to 0.46%.

The 2024 and 2025 revisions were unusually large, so the evidence should not be interpreted as proof that revisions will continue increasing each year. It does, however, demonstrate that benchmark releases can contain economically significant information and should not be overlooked by professional news traders.

For latency-sensitive strategies, the challenge is not merely receiving the release quickly. It is receiving each data point with the correct reference period, seasonal-adjustment status, units and observation status in a structured format that can be processed immediately.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

New CES Benchmark Data Coming to HAAWKS G4A

HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data for professional news traders. The new CES benchmark fields expand our coverage of U.S. labor-market releases and will be available through the same machine-readable API infrastructure.

HAAWKS G4A data is available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources & Methodology

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics
Official CES program page and current release schedule.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2026 Release Calendar
Confirms the March 2026 national preliminary CES benchmark release for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark
Official preliminary benchmark release, methodology and benchmark revision tables.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Technical Notes for the CES National Benchmark
Used for benchmark definitions, historical benchmark information and methodology.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — January 2026 Employment Situation
Used for the final March 2025 benchmark revision and the annual incorporation of benchmarked CES data.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Situation
Confirms that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be issued with the January 2027 Employment Situation in February 2027.
HAAWKS Research — CES Preliminary Benchmark Revisions, 2016–2025
Historical preliminary benchmark figures compiled from BLS preliminary benchmark announcements and contemporaneous archived releases. Statistical calculations use the preliminary March not-seasonally-adjusted percentage revisions. Revisions reported by BLS as less than 0.05% in absolute magnitude for 2018 were encoded as 0.0% for percentage-based statistical calculations.

Comment

July 2026 NFP Shock: 23K Job Loss Triggers Sharp Moves in FX, Gold and US500

August 7, 2026

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 42 pips, EURUSD moved 19 pips, XAUUSD (spot gold) moved 17 points and US500 moved 56 ticks (117 ticks total) on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 7 August 2026.

1415 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

USDJPY (42 pips)

EURUSD (19 pips)

XAUUSD (17 points)

US500 (56 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

July 2026 NFP Shock: Payrolls Fall 23K as Markets Reprice the Fed

A surprise contraction in U.S. payrolls, weaker wage growth and another round of large downward revisions triggered rapid moves across FX, gold and U.S. equity indices.

August 7, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • U.S. Employment Situation

The July 2026 U.S. Employment Situation delivered a significantly weaker labor-market signal than news traders had expected. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000, compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for an 80,000 increase.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the improvement in the headline rate came alongside another decline in labor force participation. The participation rate slipped to 61.4%, while the civilian labor force contracted by 264,000.

For news traders, the details behind the headline were arguably even more important. May and June payroll growth was revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs, while annual average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2%.

HAAWKS first read: this was not simply a weak headline NFP print. The combination of a 103,000-job downside surprise versus consensus, substantial prior-month revisions, softer wage growth and weaker labor-force participation produced a distinctly dovish labor-market signal.

NFP Estimates vs. Actual Release

Nonfarm Payrolls −23K Reuters consensus: +80K

Unemployment Rate 4.1% Forecast: 4.2%

Wage Growth YoY 3.2% Forecast: 3.5%

Prior Revisions −103K May + June combined

July 2026 U.S. Employment Situation estimates compared with actual results
Labor Indicator	Expectation	Actual	HAAWKS News-Trader Read
Nonfarm Payrolls	+80K	−23K	A 103K downside surprise versus consensus and the primary negative headline for the dollar.
Unemployment Rate	4.2%	4.1%	Better on the surface, but less supportive once the decline in labor-force participation was taken into account.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.5%	3.2%	Softer wage pressure reinforced the dovish interpretation of the employment report.
Labor Force Participation	—	61.4%	Participation edged down from 61.5%, helping explain why the unemployment rate fell despite weak employment conditions.
May Payroll Revision	Previous: +129K	+63K	Revised lower by 66K.
June Payroll Revision	Previous: +57K	+20K	Revised lower by 37K.

Immediate Market Reaction

The HAAWKS release-window measurements show how quickly the labor-market surprise was incorporated into prices. The initial response was consistent across the major macro markets: the U.S. dollar weakened, gold rallied and U.S. equities moved higher as traders reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening.

USD/JPY −42.1 pips 16 seconds

EUR/USD +19.4 pips 12 seconds

XAU/USD +17.96 points 11 seconds

US500 +14.6 points 18 seconds

Immediate market reaction following the July 2026 NFP release
Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Direction	News-Trader Interpretation
USD/JPY	42.1 pips	16 seconds	Lower	The strongest measured FX reaction as the weak employment figures triggered rapid dollar selling against the yen.
EUR/USD	19.4 pips	12 seconds	Higher	Broad dollar weakness pushed the euro higher immediately after the release.
XAU/USD	17.96 points	11 seconds	Higher	Gold reacted quickly to lower yields, dollar weakness and a reduction in expected Federal Reserve tightening.
US500	14.6 index points	18 seconds	Higher	Equity traders initially focused on the lower-rate implications of the employment miss rather than the negative growth signal.

Why This Release Mattered to News Traders

1. The Headline Surprise Was Large

Payrolls were expected to rise by 80,000 but instead declined by 23,000. For automated and discretionary news traders, the 103,000-job gap versus consensus immediately changed the macro interpretation of the release.

2. Revisions Reinforced the Signal

May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. That mattered because the release did not just report a weak July; it also showed that the preceding labor-market picture had been weaker than initially reported.

3. Unemployment Sent a Mixed Message

A fall in unemployment to 4.1% would ordinarily be interpreted as labor-market strength. However, the labor force shrank and participation slipped to 61.4%, reducing the positive impact of the headline unemployment rate.

4. Wage Growth Also Missed

Annual average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2% versus the 3.5% rate economists had expected. For rate-sensitive markets, softer wages added another dovish element to an already weak payroll report.

HAAWKS view: for news traders, this was a release where the components largely pointed in the same direction. The headline payroll miss, negative revisions and softer wage growth outweighed the lower unemployment rate. The result was a fast cross-asset repricing: USD lower, gold higher and equities higher.

Sector Detail: Where the Jobs Were Lost

The weakness was not evenly distributed across the economy. Local government education employment declined by 50,000, while retail trade lost 19,000 jobs. Financial activities employment continued to trend lower, falling by 14,000.

Health care remained one of the few areas of continued employment growth, adding 22,000 jobs during July, although that was slower than its average monthly gain over the previous year.

Selected July 2026 employment changes by industry
Industry	July Change	HAAWKS Read-through
Local Government Education	−50K	The largest highlighted sector decline in the July report.
Retail Trade	−19K	Added to the evidence of weaker overall hiring momentum.
Financial Activities	−14K	Continued an existing downward employment trend.
Health Care	+22K	Continued to add jobs, but at a slower pace than its prior 12-month average.

The Fed Repricing

Before the release, markets were debating whether persistent inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its September meeting. The unexpectedly weak jobs report materially reduced that probability.

That shift helps explain why assets that normally benefit from lower interest-rate expectations reacted so quickly. Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar weakened, gold advanced and U.S. stock futures initially rallied.

For news traders, the key point is that the market was not trading the payroll number in isolation. It was trading how the employment surprise changed the expected path of monetary policy.

News Trading Takeaways

Headline Data Is Only the First Layer

A fast NFP strategy must be able to process more than the payroll headline. Unemployment, wage growth and revisions can either confirm or contradict the initial signal.

Revisions Can Be Market-Moving

The 103,000 combined downward revision to May and June strengthened the bearish labor-market message. In some releases, prior-period revisions can matter as much as the current month's number.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Matters

USD/JPY lower, EUR/USD higher, gold higher and US500 higher represented a coherent initial macro reaction. When several rate-sensitive markets respond in the same direction, news traders receive useful confirmation of the market's interpretation.

Execution Risk Remains Critical

A measured market move is not the same as an achievable trading result. During high-impact releases, spreads can widen, liquidity can disappear, prices can gap and slippage can increase. Latency, order type, venue and risk controls remain critical to actual execution.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 2026 NFP release delivered a much weaker labor-market picture than traders had expected.

Nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 versus expectations for an 80,000 increase. May and June were revised down by another 103,000 jobs, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%.

Although unemployment fell to 4.1%, declining labor-force participation reduced the strength of that signal. The broader message from the report was therefore clearly softer than the headline unemployment rate alone suggested.

The immediate market reaction reflected that interpretation. HAAWKS measured 42.1 pips in USD/JPY in 16 seconds, 19.4 pips in EUR/USD in 12 seconds, 17.96 points in XAU/USD in 11 seconds and 14.6 index points in US500 in 18 seconds.

For news traders, the release is a useful example of why low-latency access to the complete data set matters. The payroll headline, unemployment rate, wage figures and revisions all arrived together and collectively determined the market's interpretation within seconds.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Built for News Traders

HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data directly from official sources for professional algorithmic and manual news trading.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Data Feeds

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, July 2026
Official source for nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, labor-force participation, earnings, industry employment and prior-month revisions.
Reuters — U.S. job growth expected to pick up in July
Used for the pre-release economist consensus of +80K payrolls, 4.2% unemployment and 3.5% annual wage growth.
Reuters — U.S. suffers unexpected job losses in July
Used for post-release labor-market and financial-market context.
Reuters — Dollar drops after weak U.S. jobs data
Used for broader FX and gold-market reaction following the report.
Reuters — Markets reduce odds of September Fed rate hike
Used for the post-NFP monetary-policy repricing.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — August 7, 2026
Used for the measured release-window reactions in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, XAU/USD and US500.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

Q2 2026 News Trading Wrap-Up: 399 Ticks Across 10 Releases

July 25, 2026

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 399 pips/ticks and US500 4 points (16 ticks) profit out of the following 10 events in the second quarter of 2026 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2025 was 1,828 pips/ticks.

Q2 2026

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q2 2026, please see all releases below.

DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) (51 ticks / 15 April 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (19 ticks / 23 April 2026)
University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (US500 4 points / 24 April 2026)
DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) (49 ticks / 29 April 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (18 ticks / 30 April 2026)
DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) (57 ticks / 6 May 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (39 ticks / 7 May 2026)
US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (20 ticks / 13 May 2026)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) (30 ticks / 28 May 2026)
USDA Grain Stocks and USDA Acreage (116 ticks / 30 June 2026)

Total trading time would have been around 12 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

HAAWKS Research

April–June 2026 News Trading Wrap-Up: 399 Ticks and US500 4 Points Across 10 Releases

DOE/EIA energy reports, U.S. inflation and consumer data, and USDA agricultural releases produced a series of rapid market reactions across crude oil, natural gas, US500 and grain futures.

April–June 2026 • 10 selected releases • Energy, macro and agriculture

The second quarter of 2026 demonstrated how structured economic and commodity data can generate sharp market moves in very short trading windows.

Across 10 selected HAAWKS-covered releases between April 15 and June 30, the measured market reactions produced an indicative cumulative total of 399 ticks, together with a separate 4-point move in the US500.

The releases covered several distinct market drivers: weekly petroleum inventories, natural gas storage, producer inflation, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, and USDA acreage and grain inventory data.

Important: The figures represent measured or indicative market movement following each release. They do not represent guaranteed or automatically achievable trading profits. Tick values also differ between futures contracts and should not be treated as directly equivalent dollar returns.

Performance at a Glance

Selected Releases 10 Across April, May and June

Indicative Tick Movement 399 Across multiple futures contracts

Separate US500 Move 4 Points Michigan consumer data

Largest Event 116 Ticks USDA reports on June 30

Monthly Breakdown

April 2026 Five selected releases

137 ticks + US500 4 points

Petroleum, natural gas and consumer sentiment releases drove the month’s measured opportunities.

May 2026 Four selected releases

146 ticks

DOE/EIA energy data remained active, while the PPI release added an equity-index futures opportunity.

June 2026 One selected release

116 ticks

USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage data generated the largest combined move in the selected period.

Monthly summary of selected HAAWKS news trading releases from April through June 2026
Month	Number of Releases	Measured Movement	Main Release Categories
April 2026	5	137 ticks + US500 4 points	Petroleum, natural gas and consumer sentiment
May 2026	4	146 ticks	Petroleum, natural gas and Producer Price Index
June 2026	1	116 ticks	USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage
Total	10	399 ticks + US500 4 points	Energy, macroeconomic and agricultural data

All Selected Releases

Selected market-moving releases covered by HAAWKS between April and June 2026
Date	News Release	Primary Market	Measured Move
April 15, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report	Crude oil futures	51 ticks
April 23, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report	Natural gas futures	19 ticks
April 24, 2026	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations	US500	4 points
April 29, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report	Crude oil futures	49 ticks
April 30, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report	Natural gas futures	18 ticks
May 6, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report	Crude oil futures	57 ticks
May 7, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report	Natural gas futures	39 ticks
May 13, 2026	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index	US500 futures	20 ticks
May 28, 2026	DOE/EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report	Natural gas futures	30 ticks
June 30, 2026	USDA Grain Stocks and USDA Acreage	Corn, wheat and soybean futures	116 ticks total

Which Releases Generated the Most Movement?

Cumulative measured movement by release category
Release Category	Number of Events	Cumulative Move	HAAWKS Read-through
Petroleum Status Report	3	157 ticks	Crude oil inventory data produced the highest cumulative total among the recurring report categories.
Natural Gas Storage Report	4	106 ticks	Natural gas provided the highest frequency of selected opportunities during the period.
USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage	1	116 ticks	The combined corn, wheat and soybean reaction was the largest single selected event.
Producer Price Index	1	20 ticks	Producer inflation generated a fast reaction in US500 futures.
Michigan Consumer Data	1	US500 4 points	Sentiment and inflation expectations produced a smaller but measurable equity-index reaction.

What the Results Show

Energy Data Remained the Core Driver

DOE/EIA petroleum and natural gas reports accounted for seven of the 10 selected events and 263 of the 399 cumulative ticks. Energy reports therefore represented approximately two-thirds of the measured tick total.

Recurring Reports Created Repeat Opportunities

Petroleum and natural gas reports did not produce only one isolated reaction. Their weekly publication schedules generated multiple market-moving events during April and May.

Macroeconomic Data Still Mattered

The Producer Price Index and Michigan consumer data showed that equity-index futures remained sensitive to inflation, sentiment and changes in the interest-rate outlook.

Agricultural Data Produced the Largest Event

USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage reports produced 116 combined ticks across corn, wheat and soybeans, demonstrating the importance of machine-readable agricultural data during major seasonal releases.

HAAWKS view: The period showed that market-moving opportunities were not concentrated in one asset class. Energy reports offered frequency, macroeconomic data affected equity-index futures, and the USDA reports produced the largest combined reaction. The common factor was speed: structured information was rapidly incorporated into futures prices.

Why Low-Latency Data Matters

Scheduled economic releases can move futures markets within seconds. During these periods, the ability to receive structured data quickly can be as important as understanding the underlying economic result.

Machine-readable data allows trading systems and professional users to process individual data fields without waiting for a complete report to be read manually. This is particularly relevant for reports containing numerous related figures, including petroleum inventories, regional natural gas storage, inflation components and agricultural supply data.

Speed alone does not remove execution risk. Spreads may widen, available liquidity may decline and slippage may increase around major releases. Traders still require disciplined risk limits, reliable infrastructure and a clear understanding of the contracts being traded.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The selected April–June 2026 releases produced a diverse set of futures news trading opportunities across energy, equity indices and agricultural markets.

The three DOE/EIA Petroleum Status Reports generated 157 ticks, while four Natural Gas Storage Reports generated 106 ticks. The Producer Price Index added 20 ticks in US500 futures, and Michigan consumer data produced a separate 4-point US500 move.

The largest single selected event came on June 30, when USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage data generated a combined 116 ticks across corn, wheat and soybean futures.

Together, the selected releases represented 399 ticks of indicative market movement, plus US500 4 points. The results reinforce the importance of fast data delivery, contract-specific analysis and disciplined execution around scheduled economic news.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Explore HAAWKS Machine-Readable Data

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data for professional users covering U.S. economic releases, DOE/EIA energy reports and USDA agricultural data.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Data Feeds

Sources

HAAWKS — April 2026 monthly news trading analysis
Source for the five selected April releases, 137 cumulative ticks and the separate US500 4-point move.
HAAWKS — May 2026 monthly news trading analysis
Source for the four selected May releases and 146 cumulative ticks.
HAAWKS — USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage analysis, June 30, 2026
Source for the combined 116-tick reaction in corn, wheat and soybean futures.
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Official source for weekly U.S. petroleum inventory and supply data.
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Official source for weekly U.S. underground natural gas storage data.
University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers
Official source for consumer sentiment and inflation-expectation data.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Producer Price Index
Official source for U.S. producer inflation data.
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — Current Reports
Official source for USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage reports.

Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data offers one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials for qualified professionals.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points for Agricultural Markets

July 18, 2026

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points

HAAWKS announcement for 40 weekly USDA Export Sales data points covering wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice.

On Thursday, July 16, 2026, HAAWKS expanded its agricultural market coverage with the launch of 40 structured data points from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.

Published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET throughout the year, the report provides one of the most timely official indicators of international demand for U.S. agricultural commodities.

The new HAAWKS dataset covers weekly net export sales for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice, with separate values for the current and next marketing years.

Unlike reports released after agricultural markets have closed, the Weekly Export Sales Report is published while the principal futures contracts are actively trading. This makes speed, accurate normalization, and machine-readable delivery especially important for algorithmic and event-driven market participants.

What HAAWKS Delivers

HAAWKS will disseminate 40 data points covering five major commodity groups and their relevant product classifications.

  
          Commodity
        
          Data Coverage
        
          Wheat

          Various types and classes
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Corn
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Soybeans

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Cotton

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Rice

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year

The individual product and commodity classifications provide more detailed information than a single headline export-sales figure. This allows users to identify differences in demand across crop types, qualities, and delivery periods.

Why Weekly Export Sales Matter

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report provides a current view of overseas demand for U.S. agricultural products.

Strong net sales may indicate improving international demand, increased forward purchasing, or progress toward USDA full-year export projections. Weak sales, cancellations, or net reductions may point to softer demand, changing destination activity, or stronger competition from other exporting countries.

However, the market does not react only to whether sales appear high or low.

The most important signal is frequently the difference between the reported value and what market participants expected before the release.

A weekly corn export-sales figure may be supportive if it exceeds expectations, but the same figure may be disappointing if traders anticipated an even larger result.

For systematic analysis, the core event signal can be expressed as:

Export-sales surprise = reported net sales − expected net sales

The size and direction of that surprise can then be assessed alongside:

The previous reporting week
Recent weekly averages
Seasonal export patterns
Outstanding export commitments
Reported cancellations
Major destination activity
Progress toward USDA export projections
Current and next marketing year allocations

Current and Next Marketing Year Sales

HAAWKS provides separate data points for the current marketing year and the next marketing year.

Current marketing year net sales represent new commitments, adjustments, and cancellations for delivery during the active marketing year. These figures are particularly relevant to near-term demand and the pace required to meet annual export forecasts.

Next marketing year net sales represent forward commitments for delivery after the current marketing year ends. They can provide an early indication of demand for the upcoming crop cycle and may become increasingly important as the current marketing year approaches its conclusion.

Separating the two periods helps traders and analysts distinguish immediate demand from longer-term purchasing activity.

It also prevents a large next-year sale from being interpreted as an equally strong signal for nearby supply and demand conditions.

What Are Net Export Sales?

Net export sales represent newly reported sales after accounting for cancellations, reductions, destination changes, and other adjustments.

A positive number generally indicates that new sales exceeded cancellations and reductions during the reporting period.

A negative number can occur when cancellations or downward adjustments are larger than newly reported sales.

Net sales are therefore not the same as physical exports or shipments. A sale represents a commitment, while an export represents the physical movement of the commodity.

For a complete demand assessment, traders may compare net sales with:

Physical exports
Outstanding sales
Accumulated exports
Destination-level activity
Historical seasonal patterns
USDA annual export forecasts

Released During Active Futures Trading

The report is published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET while major agricultural futures markets are open.

CME grain and oilseed futures, including corn, soybeans, and wheat, continue trading until 8:45 AM ET during the overnight session. Trading then pauses before the main daytime session begins at 9:30 AM ET.

ICE Cotton No. 2 futures are also actively trading at 8:30 AM ET.

This creates two important reaction windows.

  
          Time
        
          Market Event
        
          Relevance
        
          8:30 AM ET
        
          USDA Weekly Export Sales Report released
        
          Immediate data ingestion and event detection
        
          8:30–8:45 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed futures remain open
        
          Initial algorithmic price discovery
        
          8:45–9:30 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed trading pause
        
          Further analysis and order preparation
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          CME daytime session begins
        
          Broader liquidity and potential follow-through
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          Regular U.S. stock and ETF trading begins
        
          Potential reaction in related listed instruments

The 15-minute period between the report release and the end of the overnight CME session is especially relevant for automated traders.

During this window, systems can ingest the new figures, compare them with expectations, identify material surprises, apply risk controls, and generate trading signals while the underlying futures remain tradable.

Directly Relevant Markets

The data is most directly relevant to futures and options linked to the commodities included in the report:

CBOT corn futures and options
CBOT soybean futures and options
CBOT wheat futures and options
KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
CBOT rough rice futures and options

The report may also be relevant to related commodity spreads and processing relationships, including soybean crush components and differences among wheat classes.

The strength of the market reaction depends on more than the headline figure. It can also be affected by the reporting period, destination, size of revisions or cancellations, seasonal demand, existing positioning, liquidity, and whether the result was already anticipated.

Designed for Algorithmic Trading Workflows

Many HAAWKS clients consume market news through automated or algorithmic systems rather than by manually reading and interpreting reports.

For these users, an official report published as a document or web page must first be converted into standardized fields before it can be used reliably.

HAAWKS transforms the USDA release into structured data points designed for systematic consumption.

The dataset can support workflows such as:

Real-time event detection
Automated estimate comparison
Surprise calculation
Commodity and product classification
Current-year and next-year separation
Cancellation and net-reduction detection
Historical event analysis
Quantitative model inputs
Automated alerts
Trading signal generation
Risk-management checks
Dashboard and API integration

Consistent field definitions are particularly important when the same report contains numerous commodities, product types, marketing years, destinations, and adjustments.

By normalizing the data, HAAWKS allows systems to compare each new observation with prior releases without repeatedly interpreting the underlying report structure.

From Release to Market Signal

An algorithmic workflow may process the report in several stages:

Receive the structured HAAWKS data.
Validate the commodity, product type, and marketing year.
Compare the reported figure with the expected value.
Calculate the size and direction of the surprise.
Compare the result with prior weeks and historical ranges.
Apply commodity-specific signal thresholds.
Check liquidity, market conditions, and risk limits.
Generate an alert, analytical output, or trading instruction.

Not every statistical surprise creates a meaningful price move.

A large soybean sales figure, for example, may have limited impact if it was widely expected or if it reflects a previously announced transaction. Conversely, an unexpected cancellation or net reduction may matter even when the absolute weekly figure appears relatively small.

The HAAWKS dataset provides the structured inputs needed for users to make those distinctions within their own models and strategies.

More Than a Headline Figure

The detailed structure of the Weekly Export Sales Report helps users look beyond aggregate demand.

Important questions include:

Which commodity or product class was sold?
Does the sale apply to the current or next marketing year?
Were previous commitments cancelled or reduced?
Which destinations were involved?
Are sales concentrated among one or several buyers?
How does the result compare with the pace needed to meet USDA projections?
Are reported commitments translating into physical exports?
Is one commodity class performing differently from another?

For wheat, cotton, rice, and soybeans, product-level differences can be particularly important. Strong demand for one class or type does not necessarily imply equally strong demand for the broader commodity category.

Expanding HAAWKS Agricultural Coverage

The addition of USDA Weekly Export Sales data strengthens HAAWKS’ coverage of both the demand and supply sides of agricultural markets.

USDA Crop Progress data provides insight into planting, crop development, condition, and harvest activity.

USDA Export Sales data provides insight into international demand, cancellations, and forward purchasing commitments.

Together, the datasets help users monitor how U.S. production conditions interact with global demand throughout the agricultural cycle.

By delivering official USDA information in a clean, structured, and machine-readable format, HAAWKS helps traders and analysts move more efficiently from report publication to systematic market analysis.

For algorithmic participants, that means receiving structured data while the directly relevant futures markets are still trading.

Sources

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Export Sales Reporting Program
Official information about the reporting program and the Thursday 8:30 AM ET release schedule.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Weekly Export Sales
Official weekly reports and downloadable export-sales data.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports
CME Group — Corn Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT corn futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
CME Group — Soybean Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT soybean futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/oilseeds/soybean.html
CME Group — Chicago Wheat Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.html
CME Group — KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Contract information for KC HRW wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/kc-wheat.html
CME Group — Rough Rice Futures
Contract information and trading hours for rough rice futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/rough-rice.html
ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
Official contract specifications and trading hours.
https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Comment

Natural Gas Futures Drop 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds After EIA Storage Report

July 18, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 16 July 2026.

1298 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Natural Gas Storage Build Triggers a 39-Tick Selloff in 11 Seconds

U.S. natural gas futures reacted sharply after the EIA reported a 41 Bcf storage injection, with the market looking beyond the slightly smaller-than-expected build to focus on abundant inventories and strong domestic production.

July 16, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • Week ending July 10, 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that working natural gas inventories increased by 41 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 10, bringing total Lower 48 storage to 3,024 Bcf.

The build was slightly smaller than the Reuters analyst consensus of 43 Bcf and below the five-year average injection of 45 Bcf. Despite the modestly tighter weekly flow, natural gas sold off immediately after the release.

HAAWKS first read: The market did not treat the smaller-than-expected injection as a sustainable bullish signal. Traders instead focused on inventories remaining 6.4% above the five-year average, rising production and softer LNG feedgas demand.

Storage Report at a Glance

Weekly Injection +41 Bcf Reuters consensus: +43 Bcf

Total Storage 3,024 Bcf Lower 48 working gas

vs. Five-Year Average +181 Bcf 6.4% above average

vs. One Year Ago −21 Bcf 0.7% below last year

Weekly natural gas storage report compared with forecasts and historical levels
Storage Indicator	Reported	Comparison	HAAWKS Read-through
Weekly Net Change	+41 Bcf	Reuters forecast: +43 Bcf	The injection was 2 Bcf below consensus, representing a slightly tighter weekly result than expected.
Five-Year Average Injection	+45 Bcf	Actual was 4 Bcf smaller	The weekly flow was below normal, but the total inventory surplus remained substantial.
Total Working Gas	3,024 Bcf	3,045 Bcf one year ago	Inventories were 21 Bcf, or 0.7%, below the comparable year-earlier level.
Five-Year Average Stocks	2,843 Bcf	Current stocks: +181 Bcf	The 6.4% storage surplus continued to provide a bearish buffer against weather-driven demand.

Immediate Market Reaction

39 Ticks Lower

Natural Gas Fell 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds

The HAAWKS tick chart recorded an immediate 39-tick decline in natural gas within the first 11 seconds following the 10:30 a.m. ET storage release. The speed of the move showed that the market interpreted the broader storage and supply backdrop as bearish, despite the injection coming in slightly below expectations.

Natural gas market reaction following the weekly EIA storage report
Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Initial Direction	Interpretation
Natural Gas	39 ticks	11 seconds	Lower	Immediate selling indicated that surplus inventories and broader supply conditions outweighed the slightly smaller weekly build.

Regional Storage Breakdown

The Midwest recorded the largest regional injection at 20 Bcf, followed by the East with 14 Bcf. The South Central region added only 3 Bcf as a 5 Bcf withdrawal from salt facilities partially offset an 8 Bcf injection into nonsalt storage.

Regional changes in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending July 10, 2026
Region	Working Gas	Weekly Change	vs. Last Year	vs. Five-Year Average
East	614 Bcf	+14 Bcf	−1.9%	+1.7%
Midwest	749 Bcf	+20 Bcf	+3.0%	+6.2%
Mountain	240 Bcf	+4 Bcf	+2.6%	+21.2%
Pacific	319 Bcf	0 Bcf	+8.5%	+21.8%
South Central	1,103 Bcf	+3 Bcf	−5.2%	+2.7%
Total Lower 48	3,024 Bcf	+41 Bcf	−0.7%	+6.4%

Why Did Natural Gas Fall?

The Storage Surplus Remained Large

Although the weekly injection was slightly smaller than expected, inventories remained 181 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus continued to limit concerns about supply availability during the summer cooling season.

Production Remained Strong

Lower 48 natural gas production averaged approximately 110.3 Bcf per day during July. Strong output gave the market confidence that storage could remain adequately supplied even as electricity demand increased.

LNG Feedgas Flows Were Below Their Peak

Feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals averaged around 17.4 Bcf per day during July, below the record level reached in April. Reduced export demand left more domestic supply available to the U.S. market.

HAAWKS view: The 41 Bcf injection was nominally supportive because it came in below both consensus and the five-year average. However, the 39-tick selloff showed that traders placed greater weight on the continuing inventory surplus, high production and subdued LNG demand.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Weather remains the most important near-term variable. Sustained heat across the Midwest and East could increase power-sector gas consumption and produce a smaller injection in the next storage report.

Traders should also monitor Lower 48 production, LNG terminal activity and the pace at which the five-year storage surplus narrows. A series of tighter injections would be more important than a single below-average build.

The next EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for July 23, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 16 natural gas storage report delivered a slightly tighter result than expected. The 41 Bcf injection was below the 43 Bcf Reuters consensus and the 45 Bcf five-year average build.

The immediate market response was nevertheless decisively bearish. Natural gas dropped 39 ticks in only 11 seconds, demonstrating that the market remained more concerned with abundant total inventories than with the modest weekly miss.

Total working gas stood at 3,024 Bcf—21 Bcf below the prior-year level but still 181 Bcf above the five-year average. This left the market adequately supplied and reduced the urgency to price a near-term shortage.

The key message is that the headline injection cannot be viewed in isolation. Storage levels, production, weather, electricity demand and LNG exports collectively determine whether a report is genuinely bullish or bearish.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Official source for the 41 Bcf injection, total Lower 48 inventories, regional storage changes and comparisons with last year and the five-year average.
Reuters — U.S. natural gas prices slide on rising production and ample storage
Used for the 43 Bcf analyst consensus, five-year average injection, production, LNG flows and broader futures-market context.
HAAWKS internal natural gas tick-chart analysis — July 16, 2026
Used for the measured release-window market reaction of 39 ticks lower in 11 seconds.

Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data is one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

June 2026 CPI: Cooler Inflation Sends the Dollar Lower and Risk Assets Higher

July 14, 2026

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 21 pips, EURUSD moved 17 pips, US500 moved 76 ticks and XAUUSD 34 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 14 July 2026.

1259 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

USDJPY (21 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

US500 (76 ticks)

XAUUSD (34 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

June 2026 CPI: Inflation Cools Faster Than Expected

A sharp decline in energy prices and an unexpectedly soft core reading triggered immediate moves across currencies, gold and U.S. equities.

July 14, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • Consumer Price Index

The June 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index delivered a clear downside inflation surprise. Headline CPI declined 0.4% month over month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged during the month and slowed to 2.6% year over year.

The report was softer than economists had expected at both the headline and core levels. Markets responded by selling the U.S. dollar and moving into rate-sensitive assets, including gold and U.S. equities.

HAAWKS first read: The release reduced immediate inflation anxiety, but the details require balance. Falling energy prices drove much of the headline decline, while the unchanged core reading showed that underlying inflation also cooled during June.

CPI Estimates vs. Actual Release

Headline CPI MoM −0.4% Forecast: −0.1%

Headline CPI YoY 3.5% Forecast: 3.8%

Core CPI MoM 0.0% Forecast: +0.2%

Core CPI YoY 2.6% Forecast: 2.8%

June 2026 CPI estimates compared with actual results
Inflation Indicator	Estimate	Actual	HAAWKS Read-through
Headline CPI MoM	−0.1%	−0.4%	A materially softer monthly reading, driven primarily by lower energy prices.
Headline CPI YoY	3.8%	3.5%	Annual inflation slowed more quickly than markets expected.
Core CPI MoM	+0.2%	0.0%	The unchanged core index was an important downside surprise.
Core CPI YoY	2.8%	2.6%	Underlying annual inflation continued moving toward a more moderate pace.

What Drove the Inflation Decline?

Energy was the largest contributor to the monthly decline. The energy index fell 5.7%, while gasoline prices dropped 9.7%. Those declines more than offset increases in food and shelter.

Food prices increased 0.2% during June, while shelter rose only 0.1%—its smallest monthly increase since January 2021. Motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care and used vehicle prices also declined.

Key components of the June 2026 Consumer Price Index
CPI Component	Monthly Change	Annual Change	Interpretation
All Items	−0.4%	+3.5%	The largest monthly headline decline since April 2020.
Core CPI	0.0%	+2.6%	Underlying price pressures were unchanged during the month.
Energy	−5.7%	+15.7%	The largest contributor to the monthly CPI decline.
Gasoline	−9.7%	+26.7%	A sharp monthly reversal, although prices remained elevated compared with a year earlier.
Shelter	+0.1%	+3.3%	The smallest monthly shelter increase since January 2021.
Food	+0.2%	+3.0%	Food inflation remained positive but relatively contained.

Market Impact at a Glance

HAAWKS tick charts captured the initial release-window moves immediately following the 8:30 a.m. ET CPI announcement.

Market impact following the June 2026 CPI release
Market	Measured Move	Initial Direction	HAAWKS Interpretation
USD/JPY	21 pips	Lower	The dollar weakened against the yen as traders reduced the probability of near-term Federal Reserve tightening.
EUR/USD	17 pips	Higher	The euro advanced as the softer inflation reading pressured the broader U.S. dollar.
US500	76 ticks	Higher	Equities rallied as the inflation surprise reduced immediate concerns about restrictive monetary policy.
XAU/USD	34 points	Higher	Gold benefited from a weaker dollar and lower expectations for near-term interest-rate increases.

Cross-Asset Market Reading

Foreign Exchange

The immediate FX response was a weaker U.S. dollar. USD/JPY moved lower, while EUR/USD moved higher. This was consistent with markets reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to tighten policy in the immediate future.

Gold

Gold produced one of the strongest reactions. Softer inflation generally supports non-yielding assets when it lowers Treasury yields and weakens the dollar. The HAAWKS measurement recorded a 34-point release-window advance.

U.S. Equities

The US500 initially gained 76 ticks. The market interpreted the report as supportive for valuations because inflation cooled without the release itself presenting a direct signal of collapsing economic demand.

HAAWKS view: The release created a broadly dovish cross-asset response—USD lower, gold higher and equities higher. The core CPI miss strengthened the move because the moderation was not limited entirely to volatile energy prices.

What the CPI Report Means for the Fed

The June figures gave policymakers additional breathing room. Headline inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s longer-term objective, but both headline and core CPI came in below expectations.

The report does not eliminate future inflation risk. Much of the headline decline reflected lower gasoline and energy prices, which can reverse quickly. Renewed pressure on oil markets could therefore make upcoming inflation reports less favorable.

For traders, the key question is whether the softer core readings continue. A sustained moderation in shelter and services inflation would provide a stronger signal than a single energy-driven monthly decline.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The June CPI release was decisively softer than expected. Headline prices fell 0.4%, core prices were unchanged and both annual measures undershot consensus forecasts.

Markets reacted in a clear and coordinated manner: the dollar weakened, gold advanced and the US500 rallied. The HAAWKS measurements recorded 21 pips in USD/JPY, 17 pips in EUR/USD, 76 ticks in the US500 and 34 points in XAU/USD.

The report offered short-term relief from inflation concerns, but it should not be viewed as an all-clear signal. Energy volatility remains a material risk, and annual headline inflation was still elevated.

The central message is therefore one of moderation rather than victory: inflation cooled faster than expected, underlying pressure eased and markets rapidly repriced the near-term policy outlook.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, June 2026 . Official CPI figures, component data and release details.
Reuters — U.S. consumer inflation preview and economist consensus
Used for the pre-release market estimates for headline and core consumer inflation.
Reuters — Traders reduce expectations for a July Fed rate increase
Used for market-implied Federal Reserve policy expectations following the report.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart screenshots captured on July 14, 2026. Used for the measured release-window moves in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, US500 and XAU/USD.

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