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USDA Grain Stocks Trigger Sharp Repricing Across Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

September 30, 2026

According to our analysis corn (ZC), wheat (ZW) and soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 56 / 32 / 24 ticks (total 112) on USDA Grain Stocks data on 30 September 2026.

1902 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

USDA Grain Stocks Trigger Sharp Repricing Across Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

September 1 U.S. grain inventories delivered materially different supply signals across corn, soybeans and wheat, with the largest deviation from expectations concentrated in corn.

September 30, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA NASS Grain Stocks

The September 2026 USDA Grain Stocks report produced a differentiated response across CBOT corn, wheat and soybean futures as market participants incorporated updated estimates of physical inventories across the three major U.S. grain markets.

USDA reported September 1 corn inventories of 2.095 billion bushels, substantially above pre-release expectations and 35% above the corresponding level one year earlier.

Soybean inventories totaled 315 million bushels, below the cited market average and approximately 3% below September 2025.

All-wheat inventories stood at 1.846 billion bushels, close to the cited average expectation while remaining approximately 14% below the prior-year level.

HAAWKS release-window measurement: CBOT corn futures ZC fell 56 ticks, wheat futures ZW fell 32 ticks, while soybean futures ZS rose 24 ticks following publication of the USDA Grain Stocks data.

Immediate Cross-Grain Market Reaction

Corn — ZC −56 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Wheat — ZW −32 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Soybeans — ZS +24 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

September 1 Stocks vs. Market Expectations

The information content of a scheduled agricultural release depends not only on the absolute inventory level but also on the difference between the published figure and the distribution of expectations immediately before publication.

The pre-release estimates below are from the Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal analyst survey, as reproduced by DTN and Price Futures Group ahead of and following the September 30 release.

Commodity	Survey Average	Survey Range	USDA Actual	Difference vs. Average
Corn	1.924B bu	1.860–2.005B	2.095B bu	+171M bu
Soybeans	323M bu	305–335M	315M bu	−8M bu
All Wheat	1.849B bu	1.790–1.955B	1.846B bu	−3M bu

Estimate source: Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal survey of analysts, reproduced by DTN and Price Futures Group. Survey estimates can differ across data providers and should be identified by source when used in release analysis.

HAAWKS view: the three crops delivered materially different inventory profiles. Corn produced the largest deviation from the cited pre-release distribution, soybean inventories were below the survey average, while wheat stocks were close to the consensus level.

Corn: Stocks Exceed the Entire Survey Range

September 1 U.S. corn inventories totaled 2.095 billion bushels.

That was approximately 171 million bushels above the Dow Jones survey average of 1.924 billion bushels.

More significantly, USDA's estimate exceeded the upper end of the cited 1.860 to 2.005 billion bushel survey range. The published figure was therefore above every estimate contained in that survey.

Total Corn Stocks 2.095B Bushels on September 1

Year-on-Year +35% Versus September 2025

Difference vs. Average +171M Bushels above Dow Jones average

Corn Inventory Detail	Sep. 1, 2026	Sep. 1, 2025	Year-on-Year Change
On-Farm Stocks	787.3M bu	643.2M bu	+22%
Off-Farm Stocks	1.308B bu	908.1M bu	+44%
Total Stocks	2.095B bu	1.551B bu	+35%

The increase was particularly pronounced in off-farm storage. Off-farm corn stocks reached approximately 1.308 billion bushels, 44% above the corresponding level one year earlier.

June through August indicated disappearance was approximately 3.20 billion bushels, compared with about 3.09 billion bushels during the same period in 2025.

Usage therefore increased year over year, but not sufficiently to prevent a substantially larger September 1 inventory position.

Soybeans: Stocks Come In Below Expectations

USDA estimated September 1 soybean inventories at 315 million bushels.

That was approximately 8 million bushels below the Dow Jones survey average of 323 million bushels and within the cited 305 to 335 million bushel estimate range.

Total soybean inventories were also approximately 3% below the year-earlier level.

Total Soybean Stocks 315M Bushels on September 1

Year-on-Year −3% Versus September 2025

Difference vs. Average −8M Bushels below Dow Jones average

Soybean Inventory Detail	Sep. 1, 2026	Sep. 1, 2025	Year-on-Year Change
On-Farm Stocks	90.4M bu	91.5M bu	−1%
Off-Farm Stocks	224.7M bu	233.3M bu	−4%
Total Stocks	315.1M bu	324.8M bu	−3%

June through August indicated soybean disappearance totaled approximately 744 million bushels, compared with roughly 683 million bushels during the comparable period one year earlier.

Wheat Stocks Decline from the Prior Year

USDA reported September 1 all-wheat inventories of 1.846 billion bushels.

The figure was close to the Dow Jones survey average of 1.849 billion bushels and remained within the cited 1.790 to 1.955 billion bushel range.

Relative to September 1, 2025, total wheat inventories were approximately 14% lower.

Total Wheat Stocks 1.846B Bushels on September 1

Year-on-Year −14% Versus September 2025

Difference vs. Average −3M Bushels vs. Dow Jones average

Wheat Inventory Detail	Sep. 1, 2026	Sep. 1, 2025	Year-on-Year Change
On-Farm Stocks	546.5M bu	692.2M bu	−21%
Off-Farm Stocks	1.299B bu	1.442B bu	−10%
Total All-Wheat Stocks	1.846B bu	2.134B bu	−14%

June through August indicated wheat disappearance totaled approximately 608 million bushels, compared with approximately 710 million bushels during the same period one year earlier.

Three Crops, Different Inventory Profiles

Corn Inventories

September 1 stocks reached 2.095 billion bushels, substantially above the Dow Jones survey average and above the upper end of the cited estimate range.

Soybean Inventories

Soybean stocks totaled 315 million bushels, below the cited pre-release average and approximately 3% below the prior-year inventory level.

Wheat Inventories

All-wheat stocks totaled 1.846 billion bushels, close to the pre-release average while substantially below the corresponding level one year earlier.

Cross-Market Repricing

HAAWKS recorded different immediate price responses across all three CBOT contracts as market participants incorporated the updated physical inventory information.

Storage Location Adds Another Layer of Information

Grain Stocks separates inventories held on farms from stocks held in commercial facilities, mills, elevators and other off-farm locations.

That distinction can matter for professional agricultural-market analysis because physical availability, producer selling behavior and regional basis conditions can differ depending on where inventories are located.

Commodity	On-Farm Stocks	Off-Farm Stocks	Total Stocks
Corn	787.3M bu	1.308B bu	2.095B bu
Soybeans	90.4M bu	224.7M bu	315.1M bu
Wheat	546.5M bu	1.299B bu	1.846B bu

Indicated Disappearance Provides Demand Context

Inventory levels describe the quantity of grain remaining at a particular point in time. Indicated disappearance adds another layer by estimating the quantity that moved out of stocks during the quarter.

Commodity	Jun–Aug 2026	Jun–Aug 2025	Direction
Corn	3.20B bu	3.09B bu	Higher
Soybeans	744M bu	683M bu	Higher
Wheat	608M bu	710M bu	Lower

These fields provide a broader view of physical-market activity than the headline stock totals alone and can be useful when reconciling supply-and-demand balances after publication.

Why Grain Stocks Requires Multi-Field Processing

The publication contains considerably more information than three headline inventory totals.

A structured feed can expose inventory totals, storage location, historical comparisons, indicated disappearance and revisions at the field level, allowing each component to be evaluated independently.

Information Set	Relevant Fields	Analytical Function
Total Stocks	Corn, soybeans and wheat	Establishes the point-in-time physical inventory position.
Consensus Comparison	Average, high and low estimates	Measures the deviation between expectations and the official publication.
Storage Location	On-farm and off-farm inventories	Provides additional information about physical availability and inventory distribution.
Indicated Disappearance	Quarterly implied usage	Adds demand-side context to the inventory balance.
Historical Comparison	Current and year-earlier stocks	Places the latest estimate within a broader supply context.

Implications for Event-Driven Commodity Strategies

Consensus Is Part of the Data Set

The official inventory figure alone does not quantify the amount of new information entering the market. A professional event-driven framework also needs the relevant consensus source, estimate range and timestamp.

Consensus Sources Should Be Identified Explicitly

Estimates can differ across surveys and data vendors. This analysis therefore identifies the cited numbers as the Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal analyst survey reproduced by DTN and Price Futures Group rather than presenting them as a universal market consensus.

Each Commodity Requires Independent Parsing

Corn, wheat and soybeans can deliver different statistical signals in the same publication. Systems therefore benefit from processing each commodity and each inventory field separately rather than generating one aggregate grain classification.

Storage Location Matters

On-farm and off-farm inventory changes can contain information about physical availability, producer behavior and commercial supply.

Release Vintage Should Be Preserved

Quantitative research benefits from preserving the exact numbers available at publication rather than relying solely on databases that may contain subsequent revisions.

Tick Movement Is Contract-Specific

The measured ZC, ZW and ZS movements describe contract-specific price changes around publication. Tick values are instrument-specific and should not be treated as standardized financial returns.

Immediate Market Response

HAAWKS measured ZC 56 ticks lower, ZW 32 ticks lower and ZS 24 ticks higher during the immediate response to the USDA Grain Stocks publication.

These measurements isolate the initial repricing around the scheduled data release rather than the direction of each market over the entire trading session.

Subsequent price action can incorporate harvest progress, export demand, weather, positioning, inter-commodity spreads, liquidity and broader market developments.

HAAWKS view: the September Grain Stocks release demonstrates why agricultural market data is best treated as a structured information set rather than a single headline number. Inventory totals, expectations, storage location and implied usage all enter the market at the same publication timestamp.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report produced a differentiated repricing across CBOT agricultural futures.

Corn inventories totaled 2.095 billion bushels, approximately 171 million bushels above the Dow Jones survey average and above the highest estimate in the cited survey range.

Soybean inventories stood at 315 million bushels, approximately 8 million bushels below the cited survey average and around 3% below the year-earlier stock level.

All-wheat inventories totaled 1.846 billion bushels, close to the cited survey average and approximately 14% below September 2025.

HAAWKS measured immediate release-window movements of ZC −56 ticks, ZW −32 ticks and ZS +24 ticks.

For professional market infrastructure, the publication demonstrates the value of processing USDA statistics as structured, machine-readable information. Official values, market expectations, estimate ranges, historical comparisons, storage location and indicated disappearance can all be evaluated as the market incorporates newly published data.

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HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency, structured macroeconomic and commodity data covering the United States, Canada and Europe.

The feed supports systematic strategies, professional trading desks and latency-sensitive applications requiring field-level economic and commodity data as official releases become public.

API access is available through infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

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Sources

USDA NASS — Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026
Official source for September 1 corn, soybean and wheat inventories, on-farm and off-farm stocks, indicated disappearance and other Grain Stocks statistics.
DTN — Pre-Report Grain Stocks Estimates, September 28, 2026
Source for the Dow Jones survey averages and ranges used in the pre-release comparison: corn 1.924B bushels, soybeans 323M bushels and wheat 1.849B bushels.
DTN — USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026
Post-release publication reproducing the survey averages, ranges and official USDA Grain Stocks results.
Price Futures Group — Grains Report, September 30, 2026
Additional reproduction of the Dow Jones / Wall Street Journal analyst survey used for the pre-release stock estimates.
HAAWKS internal tick-level market analysis — September 30, 2026
Source for the measured immediate release-window movements: ZC −56 ticks, ZW −32 ticks and ZS +24 ticks.

Built for traders who compete on speed. HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data via API infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Explore the feed, share your feedback, or contact us to request a free trial for financial institutions.

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Comment

EIA Petroleum Data: WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Product Draws Offset Crude Build

September 30, 2026

According to our analysis WTI crude oil moved 24 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 30 September 2026.

1790 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (24 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Sharp Product Draws Offset an Unexpected Crude Build

The September 30 EIA petroleum release delivered conflicting inventory signals: U.S. commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell substantially more than expected.

September 30, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • EIA Weekly Petroleum Data

The September 30 U.S. Energy Information Administration petroleum release presented professional commodity desks with a distinctly two-sided inventory signal.

Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 922,000 barrels during the week ending September 25, directly opposing expectations for an inventory draw.

The refined-product side of the balance sheet, however, told a very different story.

Gasoline inventories declined by approximately 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by approximately 2.3 million barrels. Both draws were significantly larger than market expectations.

HAAWKS release-window measurement: WTI crude oil moved approximately 24 ticks higher following the 10:30 a.m. ET release. The initial price response suggests that the market placed substantial weight on tightening refined-product inventories despite the unexpected build in crude.

Inventory Results vs. Market Expectations

Commercial Crude +0.922M Reuters expectation: −0.264M barrels

Gasoline −1.7M Reuters expectation: −0.485M

Distillates −2.3M Reuters expectation: −0.190M

WTI Reaction +24 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Petroleum Field	Market Expectation	EIA Actual	Surprise	Market Read-Through
Commercial Crude Oil	−0.264M barrels	+0.922M barrels	Build vs. expected draw	Negative for the crude balance in isolation.
Gasoline	−0.485M barrels	−1.7M barrels	Larger draw	Supportive product-market signal and substantially tighter than consensus.
Distillates	−0.190M barrels	−2.3M barrels	Much larger draw	Particularly relevant given already constrained diesel and heating-oil inventories.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	+0.553M barrels	Build	A negative counter-signal at the NYMEX WTI delivery hub.

WTI Moves 24 Ticks Higher

HAAWKS tick-level analysis recorded a rapid upward response in WTI immediately following the scheduled petroleum release.

+24 WTI Crude Oil Ticks

Measured during the immediate release window following the September 30, 2026 EIA petroleum data.

The move is notable because the crude inventory headline itself was weaker than expected.

A model reacting only to the commercial crude figure would have seen a 922,000-barrel build against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw. That represents a swing of almost 1.2 million barrels relative to consensus.

Yet WTI initially moved higher. The broader petroleum balance helps explain why.

The Product Draws Were the More Important Tightness Signal

Gasoline and distillates both delivered materially larger inventory draws than expected.

Gasoline stocks fell from approximately 206.0 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, a decline of about 1.7 million barrels.

Distillate inventories fell from approximately 107.4 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, a decline of roughly 2.3 million barrels.

The absolute stock levels are also relevant. Gasoline inventories remained approximately 7% below their five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories were approximately 14% below the five-year average.

HAAWKS view: the crude build weakened the upstream inventory signal, but the significantly larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate draws reinforced an already tight refined-product market. For WTI pricing, the complete petroleum balance carried more information than the crude headline alone.

Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories Fell 7 Million Barrels

Another important detail is that aggregate commercial petroleum stocks declined despite the rise in crude inventories.

EIA data showed total petroleum stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling from approximately 1.2514 billion barrels to 1.2443 billion barrels.

That represents a weekly decline of approximately 7.0 million barrels.

Inventory Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Commercial Crude	427.3M barrels	426.4M barrels	+0.9M
Gasoline	204.4M barrels	206.0M barrels	−1.7M
Distillates	105.2M barrels	107.4M barrels	−2.3M
Total Commercial Stocks ex-SPR	1,244.3M barrels	1,251.4M barrels	−7.0M

This is one reason the petroleum release should be evaluated as a multi-variable balance rather than as a single crude-inventory number.

Lower Refinery Runs Help Explain the Inventory Split

U.S. refinery activity slowed meaningfully during the reporting week.

Refinery crude inputs fell by approximately 554,000 barrels per day to 16.257 million barrels per day.

Refinery utilization declined by 1.5 percentage points to 92.5%.

This combination provides an important explanation for the apparently contradictory stock movements.

Lower refinery throughput reduces the amount of crude being processed, which can contribute to a build in crude stocks. At the same time, lower refinery output can tighten gasoline and distillate inventories.

Balance-sheet interpretation: the crude build and product draws were not independent events. Lower refinery runs provided a common mechanism linking the two sides of the report.

Cushing Added a Negative Counter-Signal

Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma increased by approximately 553,000 barrels.

EIA data put Cushing stocks at approximately 24.3 million barrels, up from about 23.7 million barrels one week earlier.

Cushing deserves separate attention because it is the designated delivery location for NYMEX WTI futures.

In this release, Cushing reinforced the negative crude-inventory signal, making the upward WTI response even more notable and highlighting the importance of the product-market data.

Crude Supply and Flow Data

The EIA overview also provided useful information on production, imports, exports and refinery demand.

U.S. Crude Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Domestic Production	13.955M b/d	13.939M b/d	+16K b/d
Crude Imports	5.698M b/d	5.877M b/d	−179K b/d
Crude Exports	3.570M b/d	3.281M b/d	+289K b/d
Net Crude Imports	2.128M b/d	2.596M b/d	−468K b/d
Refinery Crude Inputs	16.257M b/d	16.811M b/d	−554K b/d

Net crude imports fell substantially, while domestic production edged higher. However, the reduction in refinery demand was large enough to contribute to the commercial crude inventory build.

Product Supplied Remained Firm

Measures of petroleum products supplied also provided useful context for the tightening product balances.

Total products supplied averaged approximately 21.5 million barrels per day during the latest week.

On a four-week-average basis, total products supplied were approximately 20.8 million barrels per day, up 2.1% from the comparable period one year earlier.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY Change
Total Petroleum Products	21.500M b/d	20.779M b/d	+2.1%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.689M b/d	8.721M b/d	+0.3%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.948M b/d	3.776M b/d	+5.2%
Jet Fuel	1.809M b/d	1.761M b/d	+6.5%

The strong year-over-year increase in four-week distillate product supplied is particularly relevant given the low level of distillate inventories.

Why Could WTI Rise Despite an Unexpected Crude Build?

Product Draws Were Much Larger Than Expected

Gasoline and distillate inventories both tightened materially more than consensus anticipated, providing a strong offset to the crude build.

Distillate Stocks Were Already Tight

Distillate inventories stood roughly 14% below their five-year seasonal average, increasing the information value of another 2.3M-barrel draw.

Total Commercial Stocks Declined

Aggregate petroleum stocks excluding the SPR fell by approximately 7M barrels despite the commercial crude build.

Refining Activity Fell

Lower refinery runs helped explain both the crude build and the simultaneous tightening in product inventories.

The Crude Headline Alone Was Insufficient

The September 30 release demonstrates why high-frequency petroleum analysis requires simultaneous processing of multiple fields.

A crude-only framework would have classified the release negatively: stocks built when the market expected a draw, and Cushing inventories also increased.

A broader balance-sheet framework would immediately have identified substantial tightening in gasoline and distillates, falling refinery runs and a seven-million-barrel decline in total commercial petroleum inventories.

Professional market takeaway: petroleum releases are multi-dimensional. The first price response can reflect the interaction among crude, products, Cushing, refinery runs, trade flows and demand indicators rather than the sign of any single inventory field.

Release-Window Reaction vs. the Broader Oil Session

The measured 24-tick WTI increase represents the immediate response around the scheduled EIA release.

It should be separated from the broader daily oil move.

Crude prices were already trading higher amid continued concerns over Middle Eastern supply, while tightening U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories added support following the EIA data.

WTI ultimately settled at approximately $90.42 per barrel, up about $1.04 on the session.

The distinction matters for event attribution: the release-window movement isolates the market's response to the new petroleum data, while the full-session price reflects a much broader information set.

Implications for Low-Latency Commodity Strategies

Process the Entire Petroleum Balance

Crude, gasoline, distillates and Cushing can deliver conflicting signals. A robust system needs to parse them concurrently rather than sequentially.

Compare Actual Data with Consensus

The absolute direction of a stock change is not sufficient. The magnitude of the deviation from market expectations determines how much new information the release contains.

Preserve Relationships Between Fields

Lower refinery runs helped explain why crude inventories increased while refined-product stocks declined. Treating each field independently can miss these balance-sheet relationships.

Separate Absolute Stocks from Weekly Changes

Commercial crude stocks were above their seasonal five-year average, while gasoline and distillates remained below theirs. Stock levels and weekly changes therefore provided different signals.

Distinguish Release-Window Movement from Daily Performance

HAAWKS measurements focus on the immediate market response surrounding the official publication. They are not intended to represent the direction or magnitude of the entire trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 30 EIA petroleum release delivered a clear example of a mixed inventory report in which the crude headline did not determine the initial market direction.

Commercial crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw.

Cushing stocks also increased by approximately 553,000 barrels.

Yet gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels, both substantially exceeding expected draws.

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the SPR declined by approximately 7 million barrels, while refinery utilization fell to 92.5%.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 24-tick upward movement in WTI crude oil following the release.

For professional market participants, the release highlights the value of structured, low-latency access to the full petroleum data set. Crude inventories matter, but so do refined products, refinery activity, delivery-hub stocks, flows and implied demand.

Low-Latency Data. Structured Intelligence. Professional Execution.

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency, structured macroeconomic and commodity data covering the United States, Canada and Europe.

The feed is designed for systematic strategies, professional trading desks and latency-sensitive applications that require field-level economic and commodity data as official releases become public.

API access is available through infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report, September 30, 2026
Official source for U.S. crude, gasoline, distillate, refinery, supply, inventory and product-supplied data.
Reuters — Oil Prices Rise on Tight Fuel Markets, September 30, 2026
Used for analyst expectations and broader post-release oil-market context.
Reuters via BOE Report — U.S. Crude Stocks Rise, Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Fall
Used for consensus estimates, Cushing inventories and refinery utilization context.
HAAWKS internal tick-level market analysis — September 30, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 24-tick upward WTI crude oil movement.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

Softer PCE Inflation Sends US500 Up 68 Ticks as Dollar Weakens

September 30, 2026

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 15 pips, EURUSD moved 10 pips, US500 moved 68 ticks and XAUUSD 15 points (93 ticks, gold 15 points total) on US BEA Personal Income and Outlays and US BEA Gross Domestic Production (GDP) data on 30 September 2026.

1766 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

USDJPY (15 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

US500 (68 ticks)

XAUUSD (15 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Softer PCE Inflation Drives Dollar Lower as US500 and Gold Rally

August PCE inflation undershot expectations while the third estimate of second-quarter U.S. GDP was revised sharply higher. The simultaneous BEA releases produced an immediate cross-asset repricing in FX, equities and gold.

September 30, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • BEA PCE & GDP

Two major U.S. macroeconomic releases hit institutional trading systems simultaneously at 8:30 a.m. ET on September 30: August Personal Income and Outlays, including the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE inflation measures, and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP.

The combined signal was unusual. Inflation was softer than expected, while economic growth was revised materially higher.

In the first minutes after the release, markets appeared to give greater weight to the inflation surprise and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 10-tick rise in EUR/USD, 15-tick decline in USD/JPY, 68-tick rise in US500 and 15-point rise in XAU/USD.

Institutional read-through: the cross-asset configuration — weaker USD, stronger equities and stronger gold — was consistent with a decline in near-term U.S. rate-hike expectations. The much stronger GDP revision provided an important counter-signal, but it did not dominate the initial release-window repricing.

Immediate Cross-Asset Reaction

EUR/USD +10 Ticks USD weaker

USD/JPY −15 Ticks USD weaker

US500 +68 Ticks Immediate equity rally

XAU/USD +15 Points Gold higher

Instrument	HAAWKS Measured Move	Direction	Institutional Interpretation
EUR/USD	10 ticks	Higher	Broadly consistent with a softer U.S. dollar following the lower-than-expected PCE inflation readings.
USD/JPY	15 ticks	Lower	Reinforced the initial USD-negative interpretation across major FX pairs.
US500	68 ticks	Higher	Lower expected policy-rate pressure initially supported equity valuations.
XAU/USD	15 points	Higher	Gold benefited from the initial decline in U.S. rate expectations and dollar weakness.

August PCE: The Dominant Release-Window Signal

The principal inflation measures came in below market expectations. Headline PCE increased 0.3% month over month, compared with a Reuters consensus estimate of 0.4%.

On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the approximately 3.7% expected before the release.

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy and receives particular attention from Federal Reserve policymakers, rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.

Headline PCE MoM +0.3% Reuters expectation: +0.4%

Headline PCE YoY 3.4% Reuters expectation: 3.7%

Core PCE MoM +0.2% Softer underlying inflation

Core PCE YoY 3.0% Revised inflation profile

HAAWKS view: for the first market reaction, the inflation surprise carried greater policy relevance than the backward-looking GDP revision. The combination of EUR/USD higher, USD/JPY lower, US500 higher and gold higher is consistent with the market initially reducing the probability of additional near-term Federal Reserve tightening.

An Important Institutional Caveat: The PCE Data Were Revised

The September 30 release was not a standard monthly update in isolation. It incorporated BEA's 2026 annual update of the National Economic Accounts, with revisions to personal income, spending and inflation estimates beginning in January 2021.

That distinction matters for systematic interpretation.

July headline PCE inflation was revised down to 0.1% month over month, while July core PCE was also revised to 0.1%.

Reuters reported that methodology changes affecting areas including portfolio-management services, software and legal services contributed materially to lower historical inflation readings.

Institutional implication: a low-latency model should distinguish a genuinely new monthly inflation surprise from revisions caused by annual benchmarking or methodology changes. Both can move markets, but they represent different information structures and may deserve different model weights.

The Consumer Remained Exceptionally Strong

The inflation data were softer, but the broader household data were not weak.

Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9% in August, equivalent to a $190.8 billion increase.

Inflation-adjusted real PCE increased 0.6%, indicating that the spending acceleration was not merely a function of higher prices.

Personal income increased only 0.2%, while disposable personal income increased 0.3%. Real disposable income was unchanged.

The personal saving rate declined to 4.1%, showing that the strength in consumption was accompanied by a lower share of disposable income being saved.

August Household Measure	BEA Result	Institutional Read-Through
Personal Income	+0.2%	Income growth remained positive but materially lagged consumption growth.
Disposable Personal Income	+0.3%	Moderate nominal household-income growth.
Real DPI	0.0%	No monthly increase in inflation-adjusted disposable income.
Nominal PCE	+0.9%	Very strong consumer spending despite elevated borrowing costs.
Real PCE	+0.6%	Indicates genuine volume growth rather than only price effects.
Saving Rate	4.1%	Household spending growth continued to outpace income growth.

GDP Delivered a Powerful Counter-Signal

At exactly the same 8:30 a.m. ET release time, BEA published its third estimate of second-quarter GDP.

Real GDP growth was revised sharply higher to an annualized 2.2%, compared with 1.5% in the second estimate.

The 0.7-percentage-point upward revision reflected stronger investment, consumer spending and government spending.

Q2 U.S. Measure	Second Estimate	Third Estimate	Institutional Significance
Real GDP	1.5%	2.2%	Material upward revision to aggregate economic growth.
Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers	4.2%	4.6%	Strong underlying private domestic demand.
Real GDI	2.2%	2.6%	Income-side measure also pointed to firmer activity.
Average of GDP and GDI	1.8%	2.4%	Broader confirmation that Q2 activity was stronger than previously estimated.

Underlying Domestic Demand Was Stronger Than Headline GDP

For institutional macro investors, the composition of GDP may be more informative than the headline 2.2% figure.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — consumer spending plus private fixed investment — increased at a 4.6% annualized rate.

This measure removes several volatile components of GDP and provides a cleaner indication of underlying private domestic demand.

BEA attributed the Q2 GDP expansion to consumer spending, investment and exports, while increased imports subtracted from the headline calculation.

Among industries, the strongest contributors included real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable-goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance.

Corporate Profits Added to the Growth Signal

Profits from current production increased by $384.0 billion in the second quarter, although that figure was revised down by $16.9 billion from the previous estimate.

The combination of stronger consumer activity, investment and corporate earnings helps explain why the GDP release offered a distinctly growth-positive counterweight to the softer inflation figures.

Why the Inflation Signal Won the First Policy Repricing

Inflation Undershot Expectations

Headline monthly PCE rose 0.3% versus a 0.4% Reuters consensus, while the annual rate was 3.4% versus approximately 3.7% expected.

The Data Were Directly Relevant to the Fed

PCE inflation is the Federal Reserve's preferred consumer-inflation framework, making an inflation surprise immediately relevant to policy-rate pricing.

GDP Was Backward Looking

The 2.2% GDP figure described activity during April through June. The August PCE data provided more recent information about the inflation environment.

Growth Remained a Hawkish Counterweight

Strong consumption, a 4.6% increase in private domestic final sales and the GDP revision argue against interpreting the release as a simple growth slowdown.

Institutional takeaway: this was closer to a "soft inflation, strong demand" configuration than a straightforward dovish macro release. The first price response favored the inflation signal, but the underlying growth data remained too strong to justify treating the report as an unambiguously weak U.S. macro outcome.

Federal Reserve Expectations Repriced Lower

The immediate rates-market response reinforced the cross-asset signal.

Reuters reported that the implied probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase at the October meeting fell to approximately 41.5% after the data, from roughly 51.5% immediately beforehand.

U.S. Treasury yields initially declined and the dollar weakened, consistent with the HAAWKS FX, equity and gold observations.

That repricing did not eliminate the possibility of additional tightening. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's longer-run objective and household demand remained exceptionally resilient.

One Timestamp, Multiple Macro Signals

September 30 also illustrates a problem that matters directly to institutional news-trading infrastructure: multiple high-value data sets can be released at precisely the same timestamp.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, systems were required to process not merely one PCE figure but a large matrix of information including:

Data Family	Examples of Relevant Fields	Primary Market Channel
PCE Inflation	Headline MoM, headline YoY, core MoM, core YoY	Federal Reserve policy expectations
Household Income	Personal income, disposable income, real DPI	Household purchasing capacity
Consumer Spending	Nominal PCE, real PCE, goods and services	Current-quarter growth expectations
GDP	Real GDP, final sales, investment, consumption	Growth and policy outlook
GDI	Real GDI and GDP/GDI average	Confirmation of economic activity
Corporate Profits	Current-production profits and industry measures	Equity and growth fundamentals

Implications for Institutional News-Trading Systems

Field-Level Parsing Is Essential

A system reacting only to headline PCE could miss the interaction among core inflation, spending, income, GDP revisions and prior-period revisions.

Release Vintage Must Be Preserved

The 2026 annual update changed historical PCE and GDP estimates. Institutional research and systematic backtesting therefore need to distinguish the data available in real time from subsequently revised historical series.

Surprise Direction Is Not Enough

Softer inflation was dovish, while stronger GDP and spending were comparatively hawkish. A robust model needs to evaluate the magnitude, timeliness and policy relevance of competing surprises.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Adds Information

EUR/USD higher, USD/JPY lower, gold higher and equities higher provided a coherent initial cross-asset signal consistent with reduced near-term U.S. rate expectations.

Release-Window Movement Is Not Full-Session Performance

HAAWKS measurements isolate the immediate market response to the scheduled release. Subsequent price action incorporates liquidity, positioning, policy commentary and additional economic information.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Full Trading Session

The initial response should not be confused with the eventual daily close.

HAAWKS measured a strong 68-tick US500 increase during the release window, reflecting the first repricing of the new information.

The broader U.S. equity session subsequently became more mixed as investors continued to digest the strength of economic activity and elevated longer-term interest rates.

This distinction is central to institutional event analysis: release-window attribution asks a different question from end-of-day market attribution.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 30 BEA releases delivered one of the more complex U.S. macro combinations for systematic news traders: softer inflation alongside substantially stronger growth and exceptionally resilient consumer spending.

August headline PCE increased 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core PCE increased 0.2% and 3.0%, respectively.

At the same time, second-quarter real GDP was revised from 1.5% to 2.2%, real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 4.6%, and August nominal consumer spending surged 0.9%.

The market's initial interpretation nevertheless leaned toward the inflation side of the release.

HAAWKS measured EUR/USD +10 ticks, USD/JPY −15 ticks, US500 +68 ticks and XAU/USD +15 points in the immediate release window.

For institutional trading systems, the event demonstrates why a simultaneous macro release cannot be reduced to one headline field. Current values, consensus expectations, prior revisions, annual benchmarking, growth composition and cross-asset confirmation all need to be evaluated while the market is repricing.

Low-Latency Data. Structured Intelligence. Institutional Execution.

Low-Latency Macro Data for Institutional Markets

HAAWKS G4A provides structured, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data covering the United States, Canada and Europe.

The feed is designed for professional news-trading desks, systematic macro strategies and latency-sensitive applications that require field-level data immediately when official releases become public.

API access is available through infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
Official source for personal income, consumer spending, headline and core PCE inflation and the personal saving rate.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Third Estimate, Industries and Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2026
Official source for real GDP, GDI, private domestic final sales, corporate profits and industry-level revisions.
Reuters — U.S. Inflation Rises Less Than Expected in August
Used for market consensus, Federal Reserve pricing and post-release rates and FX context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 30, 2026
Source for the measured immediate release-window reactions: EUR/USD +10 ticks, USD/JPY −15 ticks, US500 +68 ticks and XAU/USD +15 points.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

September 2026 WASDE: Corn Jumps 52 Ticks, Wheat 32 and Soybeans 28

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis ZC moved 52 ticks, ZW moved 32 ticks and ZS moved 28 ticks (total: 112 ticks) on USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data on 11 September 2026.

1673 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

September WASDE Triggers Fast Grain Moves: Corn +52 Ticks, Wheat +32 and Soybeans +28

USDA cut the U.S. corn crop and tightened corn and soybean balances, while wheat delivered a more mixed global supply picture. CBOT grain futures reacted immediately to the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA WASDE

The September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates produced rapid moves across the major CBOT grain markets as traders processed new USDA forecasts for corn, wheat and soybeans.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 52-tick rise in corn futures (ZC), a 32-tick rise in wheat futures (ZW) and a 28-tick rise in soybean futures (ZS) following the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

The report contained very different signals across the three crops. Corn supplies tightened substantially compared with USDA's August projections. Soybean production increased, but stronger export demand reduced projected ending stocks. U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser.

HAAWKS first read: the initial futures reaction was higher across all three contracts, but the WASDE was not uniformly bullish relative to trade expectations. This is an important distinction for professional news traders: month-to-month USDA revisions and surprise versus consensus are two different signals.

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

CBOT Corn — ZC +52 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Wheat — ZW +32 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Soybeans — ZS +28 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Corn contained the clearest month-over-month tightening in the September report.

USDA reduced the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre, from 180.7 to 178.5 bpa.

Production was cut by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion bushels.

With lower beginning stocks and smaller production only partly offset by reduced feed demand, projected U.S. ending stocks fell from 1.653 billion to 1.567 billion bushels.

U.S. Corn	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	180.7 bpa	178.1 bpa	178.5 bpa	Large cut vs. August, but slightly above consensus.
Production	16.013B bu	15.768B bu	15.800B bu	213M-bushel USDA cut, but slightly above the trade average.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	1.653B bu	1.533B bu	1.567B bu	Tighter month over month, though not as tight as expected.
Season-Average Farm Price	$4.50/bu	—	$4.80/bu	USDA raised the price forecast by $0.30.

Corn takeaway: the balance sheet tightened substantially compared with August, which was supportive, but the headline yield, production and ending stocks figures were all slightly above pre-report trade averages. For a news trader, that makes the release more nuanced than simply calling the corn figures a bullish surprise.

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Soybeans delivered a mixed supply-and-demand signal.

USDA increased the soybean yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre and raised production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion bushels.

That increase in supply was more than absorbed by stronger demand. USDA raised projected soybean exports by 25 million bushels to approximately 1.685 billion bushels.

As a result, projected ending stocks actually declined from 320 million to 310 million bushels.

U.S. Soybeans	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	52.7 bpa	52.5 bpa	52.8 bpa	Higher than both August and the trade average.
Production	4.519B bu	4.492B bu	4.535B bu	Larger crop than traders expected.
Exports	1.660B bu	—	1.685B bu	USDA raised exports by 25M bushels.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	320M bu	289M bu	310M bu	Lower than August, but above the trade average.
Season-Average Farm Price	$11.40/bu	—	$12.00/bu	USDA raised its price projection by $0.60.

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Wheat was arguably the most interesting market response because the underlying WASDE changes were less supportive than the immediate 32-tick upward move might suggest.

USDA left aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use unchanged. Production remained at 1.531 billion bushels and ending stocks remained at 717 million bushels.

USDA did make changes within wheat classes. White wheat exports were raised by 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter exports were reduced by 15 million and Hard Red Spring exports by 5 million.

The season-average wheat price was increased by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel.

Globally, however, wheat supplies increased substantially. USDA raised production forecasts for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, while world ending stocks increased to approximately 276.3 million metric tons.

Wheat Measure	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
U.S. Production	1.531B bu	—	1.531B bu	Unchanged.
U.S. Ending Stocks	717M bu	720M bu	717M bu	Slightly below the average trade estimate.
World Ending Stocks	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	The clearest bearish supply surprise among the three crops.
U.S. Farm Price	$6.20/bu	—	$6.40/bu	Raised by $0.20.

Wheat takeaway: the immediate 32-tick ZW rally should not be interpreted as proof that the WASDE itself was fundamentally bullish for wheat. Global wheat supplies and ending stocks increased, while the U.S. balance was essentially unchanged. Positioning, order flow and the interaction of multiple USDA data points can matter during the first seconds after a major agricultural release.

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

The global balance sheets provided an important counterweight to the tighter U.S. corn and soybean figures.

2026/27 Global Ending Stocks	August USDA	Trade Estimate	September USDA	Signal vs. Consensus
Corn	274.7 MMT	about 271.9 MMT	272.1 MMT	Much tighter vs. August, but slightly above expectations.
Soybeans	124.2 MMT	about 123.1 MMT	124.0 MMT	Slightly tighter month over month, but above consensus.
Wheat	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	Significantly above expectations.

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

WASDE is not one number. Yield, production, exports, domestic use, ending stocks, global stocks and price forecasts arrive together. Different trading models may assign different weights to each field.

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Corn production fell by 213M bushels from USDA's August estimate, while U.S. corn ending stocks declined by 86M bushels. Those are substantial directional changes even though the final figures were slightly above trade consensus.

Consensus Matters Too

Professional traders also compare the published figures with pre-report expectations. A number can tighten relative to last month and still be less bullish than traders anticipated.

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Futures prices reflect existing positions as well as fundamentals. Stop orders, hedging flows, spread positions and thin liquidity immediately after a release can amplify short-duration moves.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

The HAAWKS measurements describe the immediate release-window reaction. They should not be confused with the direction of grain futures over the entire trading day.

HAAWKS recorded upward moves of 52 ticks in ZC, 32 ticks in ZW and 28 ticks in ZS following the USDA release.

Later in the session, grain markets reassessed the complete balance sheets. CME noted that corn and soybean futures ultimately finished the week lower, illustrating how an initial data-release move can differ from the subsequent market trend.

News-trader takeaway: release-window trading measures how prices respond when new information first enters the market. Later price action reflects additional interpretation, positioning, liquidity and broader market factors.

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

Unlike a simple one-number economic release, WASDE contains hundreds of interconnected supply-and-demand fields. A professional system needs to identify which numbers changed and which differences matter most.

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

U.S. corn supplies tightened materially while world corn stocks still came in slightly above expectations. Wheat provided an even clearer example: U.S. ending stocks were slightly below the trade average, while world stocks were sharply above it.

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Comparing September with August tells a trader how USDA changed its fundamental outlook. Comparing September with market expectations tells a trader how surprising the new information actually was.

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Receiving the report quickly is valuable, but an automated system must also correctly map the crop, marketing year, country, unit and balance sheet field before acting.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 52-, 32- and 28-tick figures represent historical measured price movement. Actual results depend on market depth, latency, spread, slippage, execution venue, order type and risk management.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 2026 WASDE triggered rapid price movement across all three major CBOT grain contracts monitored by HAAWKS.

HAAWKS measured approximately 52 ticks higher in corn futures, 32 ticks higher in wheat futures and 28 ticks higher in soybeans in the immediate release window.

Corn showed the clearest month-over-month tightening. USDA cut the national yield to 178.5 bpa, lowered production by 213 million bushels and reduced projected ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels.

Soybean production increased to 4.535 billion bushels, but higher exports reduced ending stocks to 310 million bushels.

U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser and world ending stocks rose to roughly 276.3 million metric tons.

The release therefore provides an important lesson for professional news traders: the initial price reaction cannot always be explained by one headline number or even by a simple bullish-versus-bearish label.

Low-latency access to structured USDA data allows trading systems to compare many fields simultaneously — current values, previous estimates, consensus expectations and global balances — while the market is still repricing.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Machine-Readable Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered via API access in Chicago, New York and London for professional and latency-sensitive news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 11, 2026
Official source for U.S. and world corn, wheat and soybean supply-and-demand forecasts.
USDA — WASDE Report
Official WASDE publication page and release schedule.
Price Futures Group — September 11 Grain Report
Reproduces the pre-report analyst averages and ranges for U.S. production, yield and ending stocks used in this analysis.
DTN — USDA Lowers Corn Yield 2.2 BPA, Slightly Increases Soy Yield
Independent post-release analysis of the September WASDE and Crop Production reports.
CME Group — Corn and Soybean Futures React to Latest WASDE Estimates
Used for broader post-release grain-market context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate market reactions: ZC +52 ticks, ZW +32 ticks and ZS +28 ticks.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

August 2026 CPI: Hotter Core CPI Sends US500 Down 48 Ticks and Gold Down 19 Points

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis US500 moved 48 ticks and XAUUSD 19 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2026.

1561 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

US500 (48 ticks)

XAUUSD (19 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Hotter Core CPI Sends US500 Down 48 Ticks and Gold Down 19 Points

August U.S. inflation data delivered a hotter-than-expected core CPI reading, triggering an immediate hawkish repricing across equities, gold and interest-rate expectations.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • U.S. Consumer Price Index

The August 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index delivered a mixed headline but a more important upside surprise in underlying inflation.

Headline CPI increased 0.4% month over month, in line with expectations, while the annual rate stood at 3.4%.

The more market-sensitive core measure increased 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% consensus forecast. Core inflation was 2.4% year over year.

HAAWKS first read: the headline CPI result itself was not the key surprise. The immediate hawkish signal came primarily from the hotter 0.3% core CPI reading versus 0.2% expected. HAAWKS measured an initial 48-tick decline in US500 and 19-point decline in XAU/USD.

August CPI: Estimates vs. Actual

Headline CPI MoM +0.4% Expected: +0.4%

Headline CPI YoY 3.4% Expected: 3.4%

Core CPI MoM +0.3% Expected: +0.2%

Core CPI YoY 2.4% Expected: 2.4%

Inflation Measure	Consensus	Actual	HAAWKS News-Trader Read
Headline CPI MoM	+0.4%	+0.4%	Matched expectations and therefore provided little standalone surprise.
Headline CPI YoY	3.4%	3.4%	Annual headline inflation remained elevated.
Core CPI MoM	+0.2%	+0.3%	The key upside surprise and the most clearly hawkish element of the release.
Core CPI YoY	2.4%	2.4%	Matched expectations.

Immediate Market Reaction

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis captured an immediate downside reaction in both US500 and gold following the 8:30 a.m. ET inflation release.

US500 −48 Ticks Immediate release-window decline

XAU/USD −19 Points Immediate release-window decline

Market	Measured Move	Direction	News-Trader Interpretation
US500	48 ticks	Lower	The hotter core CPI increased expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, initially pressuring equities.
XAU/USD	19 points	Lower	Higher expected policy rates reduced the immediate appeal of non-yielding gold.

Why the Core CPI Number Mattered Most

For news traders, this release provides another example of why headline inflation cannot be read in isolation.

Headline CPI at 0.4% was in line with expectations. If that had been the only relevant data point, the inflation release would have contained relatively little immediate surprise.

Core CPI told a different story. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% during August instead of the 0.2% economists had expected.

That difference strengthened the view that underlying inflation pressure remained persistent enough to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

HAAWKS view: the initial US500 and gold reaction was driven less by the headline CPI number, which broadly matched expectations, and more by the upside surprise in monthly core inflation and its implications for interest rates.

What Drove August Inflation?

CPI Component	August MoM	12-Month Change	HAAWKS Read-Through
All Items	+0.4%	+3.4%	Headline monthly inflation accelerated.
Core CPI	+0.3%	+2.4%	Monthly core inflation exceeded consensus.
Energy	+2.1%	+16.3%	Energy remained an important source of headline inflation pressure.
Gasoline	+3.9%	+27.4%	Gasoline accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in headline CPI.
Shelter	+0.3%	+3.0%	Shelter accelerated from the previous month.
Food	+0.1%	+2.7%	Food inflation remained comparatively moderate.
Services Less Energy Services	+0.3%	+3.0%	Continued services inflation remained relevant to the underlying inflation picture.

Gasoline Drove Part of the Headline Increase

Energy prices were an important contributor to August inflation. The energy index increased 2.1% during the month.

Gasoline prices increased 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the all-items CPI. Over the previous 12 months, gasoline prices increased 27.4%.

Fuel oil also increased sharply during the month, while other energy components were less inflationary.

Underlying Inflation Was Broader Than Energy

The core inflation increase was distributed across several categories, reinforcing the importance of looking beyond volatile energy prices.

Shelter increased 0.3%, while several transportation and service categories also recorded price increases.

This combination helped explain why the monthly core figure exceeded expectations despite some categories continuing to show weaker price pressure.

The Federal Reserve Repricing

The CPI report arrived shortly before the September Federal Reserve policy decision, increasing its significance for rate-sensitive markets.

Recent employment data had already demonstrated stronger labor-market conditions. The hotter core CPI figure added another argument for maintaining tighter monetary policy.

Core CPI Beat Expectations

A 0.3% monthly increase compared with 0.2% expected was the clearest hawkish surprise in the report.

Energy Inflation Accelerated

Energy increased 2.1%, with gasoline up 3.9%, keeping headline inflation pressure elevated.

Shelter Increased 0.3%

Shelter remained an important component of underlying consumer inflation.

Policy Expectations Changed

The combination of stronger employment data and firmer core inflation reinforced expectations for restrictive monetary policy.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Trading Session

News traders should distinguish the immediate release-window response from subsequent full-session market performance.

HAAWKS measured an initial 48-tick decline in US500 and a 19-point decline in XAU/USD around the CPI release.

Markets can subsequently retrace or reverse these initial moves as liquidity normalizes, traders reassess individual components and additional market information enters prices.

News-trader takeaway: release-window analysis measures the market's first response to new information. It should not be confused with the direction or size of the move over the entire trading session.

What This CPI Release Shows News Traders

Actual vs. Consensus Is the Primary Signal

Headline CPI at 0.4% carried limited surprise because it matched expectations. Core CPI at 0.3% mattered because the market had expected only 0.2%.

Headline and Core CPI Can Send Different Signals

A professional news-trading system should distinguish all-items CPI from the core measure. Each field can have a different surprise magnitude and a different effect on interest-rate expectations.

Component Data Adds Context

Gasoline, energy, shelter and service-price components help traders understand whether inflation pressure is concentrated in volatile categories or is becoming more broadly distributed.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Matters

The initial simultaneous declines in US500 and gold were consistent with a more hawkish interpretation of the inflation data.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 48-tick US500 and 19-point XAU/USD moves represent measured historical price movement. Actual execution can differ materially due to latency, spreads, liquidity, slippage, order type and execution venue.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The August CPI report delivered a more nuanced result than the headline number alone suggested.

Headline CPI increased 0.4%, broadly matching market expectations, while annual inflation stood at 3.4%.

The key market-moving surprise was core CPI, which increased 0.3% month over month against expectations for 0.2%.

Energy also accelerated, with gasoline increasing 3.9%, while shelter prices rose 0.3%.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 48-tick decline in US500 and 19-point decline in XAU/USD following the release.

For professional news traders, the release demonstrates why receiving only the headline CPI figure is not enough. Headline CPI, core CPI, expectations and individual components need to be processed together to identify the actual surprise and understand the market's initial interpretation.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Built for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable data for U.S. macroeconomic and commodity releases, together with macroeconomic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey, as well as ECB interest-rate decisions and statements.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, August 2026
Official source for headline CPI, core CPI and detailed inflation components.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate release-window movements of 48 ticks in US500 and 19 points in XAU/USD.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

EIA Petroleum Report Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

September 10, 2026

According to our analysis crude oil moved 39 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 10 September 2026.

1513 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Early EIA Petroleum Data Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

The market reacted to EIA's early Weekly Petroleum Status Report data before publication of the full report, as a smaller-than-expected crude draw and surprise gasoline and distillate builds delivered a bearish inventory signal.

September 10, 2026 • Early release: 12:00 p.m. ET • WTI Crude Oil

On September 10, 2026, WTI crude oil reacted immediately when the first EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report data became available at 12:00 p.m. ET — before publication of the complete report later in the day.

The early EIA overview and petroleum tables already contained the high-value fields news traders needed to assess the release: commercial crude stocks, gasoline, distillates, Cushing inventories, refinery inputs and utilization, production, imports, exports and product supplied.

Commercial crude stocks declined by only 391,000 barrels, substantially less than the approximately 1.55 million-barrel draw expected in a Reuters analyst survey.

At the same time, gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly increased, reinforcing the initial bearish interpretation.

HAAWKS release-window analysis: the early petroleum data triggered approximately 30 ticks of downside movement in WTI crude oil. The price reaction occurred before traders needed to wait for the complete WPSR PDF and HTML publication.

Why the Early EIA Release Matters to News Traders

The important distinction: EIA does not require traders to wait for the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report before key petroleum statistics become available.

The early release includes the WPSR summary, overview and core statistical tables. The remaining full-report PDF and HTML material is published later.

For traditional analysis, waiting for the complete report may make little difference. For latency-sensitive news trading, however, the distinction is critical.

The market can begin repricing as soon as the key inventory and supply fields become public. By the time a trader manually opens and reads the complete report, part of the initial market reaction may already have taken place.

HAAWKS view: for WPSR news trading, the relevant event is the first public dissemination of the market-moving data — not the later appearance of the full formatted report.

Key Inventory Surprises at 12:00 p.m. ET

Commercial Crude −0.391M Reuters estimate: −1.55M barrels

Gasoline +1.269M StreetInsider estimate: −1.09M

Distillates +2.087M StreetInsider estimate: −0.632M

Cushing −0.684M WTI delivery hub

Inventory Field	Market Estimate	Actual	Surprise	News-Trader Read
Commercial Crude Oil	−1.55M Reuters survey	−0.391M	Smaller draw	Bearish relative to expectations despite the negative headline inventory change.
Gasoline	−1.09M StreetInsider estimate	+1.269M	Build vs. expected draw	A large bearish swing relative to expectations.
Distillates	−0.632M StreetInsider estimate	+2.087M	Build vs. expected draw	Another clear bearish product-inventory surprise.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	−0.684M	Draw	A bullish counter-signal because Cushing is the delivery point for NYMEX WTI futures.

WTI Falls 30 Ticks on the Early Data

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis recorded an immediate downside reaction as the petroleum figures entered the market.

30 WTI Crude Oil Ticks Lower

HAAWKS measured the move following the 12:00 p.m. ET early EIA petroleum-data release on September 10, 2026.

The reaction illustrates an important principle in petroleum news trading: a negative crude-stock number is not automatically bullish.

What matters is the difference between the actual data and what the market had already priced in.

Traders expected a materially larger crude draw. Instead, inventories fell by only 391,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillates simultaneously moved in the opposite direction from expectations and posted inventory builds.

What Was Already Available in the Early Overview?

The early EIA overview contained considerably more information than the three headline inventory figures.

Early-Release Data Point	Current Week	Previous Week	Change / Context
Commercial Crude Stocks	424.1M barrels	424.5M barrels	Approximately −0.4M barrels
Cushing Crude Stocks	21.8M barrels	22.5M barrels	Approximately −0.7M barrels
Gasoline Stocks	206.9M barrels	205.7M barrels	Approximately +1.3M barrels
Distillate Stocks	106.3M barrels	104.2M barrels	Approximately +2.1M barrels
Total Commercial Petroleum Stocks Ex-SPR	1,248.6M barrels	1,242.3M barrels	+6.3M barrels
Refinery Crude Inputs	17.586M b/d	17.496M b/d	+91K b/d
Refinery Utilization	97.8%	98.0%	Refineries remained near very high utilization levels.
U.S. Crude Production	13.947M b/d	13.862M b/d	+85K b/d

In other words, a news-trading system did not need the later full report to know that crude inventories disappointed expectations, product inventories built, Cushing drew, refinery utilization remained very high and U.S. crude production increased.

Imports, Exports and Supply Added More Context

The early overview also showed a material change in crude trade flows.

Crude Supply Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Crude Imports	6.824M b/d	6.770M b/d	+53K b/d
Crude Exports	3.417M b/d	4.483M b/d	−1.066M b/d
Net Crude Imports	3.407M b/d	2.287M b/d	+1.119M b/d

The large decline in crude exports and increase in net imports helped explain why domestic commercial crude stocks registered only a small draw despite exceptionally high refinery runs.

Demand Indicators Were Also Available Before the Full Report

The overview included product-supplied statistics, giving news traders an immediate view of implied petroleum demand.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY
Total Products	19.313M b/d	20.119M b/d	−3.7%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.551M b/d	8.801M b/d	−1.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.678M b/d	3.715M b/d	−2.6%
Jet Fuel	1.785M b/d	1.731M b/d	−2.3%

Why the Initial WTI Signal Was Bearish

Crude Drew Less Than Expected

The market expected a substantially larger decline in commercial crude stocks. A 391K draw was therefore bearish relative to the consensus expectation despite being a draw in absolute terms.

Gasoline Swung to a Build

Gasoline inventories increased by approximately 1.27M barrels versus expectations for a decline. That created one of the clearest bearish surprises in the early data.

Distillates Also Built

Distillate inventories increased by approximately 2.09M barrels rather than posting the expected draw, reinforcing the product-side bearish signal.

Total Commercial Stocks Rose

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 6.3M barrels during the week, providing broader evidence of inventory accumulation.

But the Release Was Not Bearish in Every Detail

Professional news traders also had to process several opposing signals.

Cushing inventories fell by approximately 684,000 barrels, which was supportive for WTI because Cushing is the NYMEX crude futures delivery point.

Refineries were also operating at a very high 97.8% utilization rate, with crude inputs of 17.586 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, early EIA summary information showed gasoline and distillate inventories still below their respective five-year seasonal averages despite the week's builds.

HAAWKS view: the dominant immediate surprise was bearish because crude missed the expected draw and both major refined-product categories built. However, the Cushing draw and historically tight product inventories provided counter-signals that a complete trading model should not ignore.

What This Release Shows Professional News Traders

The Market Does Not Wait for the Full PDF

The key trading information was already public in the early overview, summary and statistical tables. The later complete report added presentation and additional context, but the principal inventory surprises were already available to the market.

Machine-Readable Fields Matter

A WPSR strategy may need to process crude inventories, Cushing stocks, gasoline, distillates, production, refinery utilization, imports, exports and product supplied at virtually the same time.

Consensus Is Essential

A crude draw is not automatically bullish. The 391K decline was bearish relative to expectations because traders had positioned for a much larger draw.

Different Fields Can Conflict

National crude and product inventories produced a bearish initial signal, while Cushing inventories produced a bullish one. News traders need rules for weighting conflicting data rather than reacting to only one field.

Low Latency Is About the First Public Data

For latency-sensitive trading, the relevant workflow begins when the earliest official data become available. Waiting for a later formatted report can mean waiting until after the first market repricing has already occurred.

The 30-Tick Reaction Was Not the Full-Day Oil Story

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of downside WTI movement in response to the early EIA data.

That should be separated from the broader September 10 oil session. Global crude prices were simultaneously being driven by severe geopolitical supply risks.

WTI ultimately settled above $100 per barrel and rose more than 6% on the day as attacks on shipping and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure increased concerns about global supply disruptions.

News-trading distinction: a release-window move measures the immediate repricing caused by a specific data event. It does not necessarily predict the direction of the market for the remainder of the trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 10 EIA release provides a useful example of why publication timing matters for professional news traders.

The market-moving petroleum data were available at 12:00 p.m. ET, before publication of the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Commercial crude stocks declined by 391,000 barrels, considerably less than expected. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.269 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 2.087 million barrels.

Total commercial petroleum stocks excluding the SPR increased by 6.3 million barrels, while Cushing crude stocks provided a counter-signal with a roughly 684,000-barrel draw.

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of immediate downside movement in WTI crude oil following the early release.

For professional news traders, the lesson is straightforward: the trading event begins when the first official machine-readable information enters the market — not when the complete report becomes convenient to read manually.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Low-Latency Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered in structured machine-readable format via API access in Chicago, New York and London, supporting professional and latency-sensitive automated news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Official EIA source for the September 10, 2026 petroleum data covering the week ending September 4.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report Release Schedule
EIA publication schedule explaining the earlier release of the WPSR summary, overview and core tables ahead of the remaining full-report PDF and HTML files.
Reuters — September 10, 2026 Oil Market Report
Source for the Reuters analyst expectation of a 1.55M-barrel crude draw and broader oil-market context.
StreetInsider — EIA Inventory Release, September 10, 2026
Timestamped at 12:00 p.m. EDT and used for the product inventory consensus estimates: gasoline −1.09M barrels and distillates −0.632M barrels.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 10, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 30-tick WTI crude oil reaction.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

August 10, 2026

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

HAAWKS is introducing seven new machine-readable CES benchmark revision data points as research shows U.S. payroll benchmark revisions have become materially larger in recent years.

HAAWKS G4A CES benchmark revisions research showing seven new machine-readable data points and larger U.S. payroll revisions in 2024 and 2025

HAAWKS Research

New G4A Data Points

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: Why Payroll Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

Ahead of the August 28, 2026 preliminary CES benchmark release, HAAWKS is expanding its low-latency machine-readable U.S. labor-market coverage with seven new benchmark-revision data points.

August 2026 • 7 new machine-readable data points • CES Benchmark Revisions

HAAWKS G4A will introduce machine-readable coverage of the Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark Revision and the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, giving professional news traders direct access to some of the most important annual revisions to U.S. payroll employment data.

Most news traders know the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. Fewer focus on the annual benchmark process that determines how closely the sample-based Current Employment Statistics estimates match more comprehensive employment counts.

That benchmark process has become increasingly relevant. HAAWKS research covering the 2016–2025 preliminary benchmark revisions shows that the magnitude of the revisions has increased materially in recent years, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Next release: BLS is scheduled to publish the March 2026 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision on Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary announcement does not immediately revise the official monthly CES employment series.

Seven New HAAWKS G4A Data Points

HAAWKS will initially disseminate two machine-readable fields from the preliminary benchmark release and five fields from the annual benchmark revision.

CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision Next release: August 28, 2026 — 10:00 a.m. ET

2 New Data Points

Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.

CES Annual Benchmark Revision Next release: February 2027 — exact BLS date pending

5 New Data Points

Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total nonfarm employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total nonfarm employment annual revision, December of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands, observation status preliminary.

BLS has confirmed that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be incorporated with the January 2027 Employment Situation release in February 2027. The exact release date has not yet been published on the official BLS calendar.

What Is a CES Benchmark Revision?

The monthly Current Employment Statistics survey estimates payroll employment from a sample of businesses and government agencies. Each year, those estimates are benchmarked against more comprehensive employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW.

QCEW counts are derived primarily from state unemployment-insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. BLS defines the benchmark revision as the difference between the March universe count and the corresponding sample-based CES employment estimate, after accounting for changes in employment scope.

Important for news traders: a preliminary benchmark revision is not the same thing as a monthly NFP revision and it is not a direct estimate of how many jobs were created during the year. It is a revision to the estimated March employment level.

Preliminary Does Not Mean the Monthly Series Changes Immediately

The August preliminary release provides an early estimate of the benchmark difference, but BLS does not immediately rewrite the official CES monthly employment series using that number.

The benchmark is incorporated later as part of the annual benchmark process. This distinction is particularly important for automated news trading systems: the preliminary benchmark is new information about the estimated employment level, while the later annual release actually incorporates benchmark and seasonal-adjustment changes into the historical CES series.

The 2025 benchmark provides a useful example. In September 2025, BLS estimated a preliminary total nonfarm revision of −911,000 jobs, or −0.6%, for March 2025. When the annual benchmark was incorporated in February 2026, the final not-seasonally-adjusted March revision was −862,000, or −0.5%. The seasonally adjusted March employment level was revised by −898,000.

In other words, the preliminary release can provide a powerful signal, but news traders also need to distinguish it from the later official benchmarked series.

HAAWKS Research: Preliminary Revisions 2016–2025

HAAWKS reviewed 10 years of national preliminary CES benchmark revisions. Negative figures indicate that the previously published CES employment level was above the preliminary benchmark estimate.

Benchmark Year	Total Nonfarm Revision	Total Nonfarm %	Total Private Revision	Total Private %
2016	−150K	−0.1%	−224K	−0.2%
2017	+95K	+0.1%	+98K	+0.1%
2018	+43K	<+0.05%	−17K	<−0.05%
2019	−501K	−0.3%	−514K	−0.4%
2020	−173K	−0.1%	−229K	−0.2%
2021	−166K	−0.1%	−421K	−0.3%
2022	+462K	+0.3%	+571K	+0.4%
2023	−306K	−0.2%	−358K	−0.3%
2024	−818K	−0.5%	−819K	−0.6%
2025	−911K	−0.6%	−880K	−0.7%

The two largest preliminary revisions in the 10-year sample occurred in 2024 and 2025 for both total nonfarm and total private employment.

Revision Magnitudes Have Increased Recently

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.12% First five-year window

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.34% 2.83× the prior window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.18% First five-year window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.46% 2.56× the prior window

Statistic, 2016–2025	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Mean Signed Revision	−0.15%	−0.22%
Mean Absolute Revision	0.23%	0.32%
Median Absolute Revision	0.15%	0.30%
Sample Standard Deviation	0.27 percentage points	0.33 percentage points
Mean Absolute Revision, 2016–2020	0.12%	0.18%
Mean Absolute Revision, 2021–2025	0.34%	0.46%
Increase Between Five-Year Windows	2.83×	2.56×
Largest Absolute Revision	0.6% — 2025	0.7% — 2025
Second Largest	0.5% — 2024	0.6% — 2024

Is the Increase Statistically Significant?

HAAWKS also tested whether the absolute size of preliminary revisions has been trending upward over the full 2016–2025 period.

Simple Linear Trend	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Increase Per Year	+0.050 percentage points	+0.058 percentage points
R²	0.61	0.67
p-value	0.007	0.004
95% Confidence Interval	+0.018 to +0.083 points/year	+0.025 to +0.091 points/year

On the complete 10-year sample, the upward trend in absolute revision size is statistically detectable.

However, there is an important qualification: the result is heavily influenced by the exceptionally large revisions in 2024 and 2025. Removing those two years causes the trend to lose conventional statistical significance.

Excluding 2024 and 2025: the trend-test p-value rises to 0.217 for total nonfarm and 0.115 for total private. The evidence therefore supports a recent increase in revision magnitude rather than a smooth, firmly established long-term trend.

Direction of the Revisions

Total Nonfarm

Seven of the 10 preliminary benchmark years were negative, two were positive and one was effectively near zero in percentage terms. The last three observations — 2023, 2024 and 2025 — were all negative.

Total Private

Eight of the 10 revisions were negative, including the very small −17,000 revision in 2018, while only 2017 and 2022 were positive. The largest negative percentage revision was −0.7% in 2025.

Why Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

They Can Change the Employment Narrative

A large negative benchmark estimate can indicate that previously published payroll employment levels overstated the underlying employment count, potentially changing how traders assess labor market momentum.

They Can Affect Fed Expectations

Labor-market strength is a major input into monetary-policy expectations. A materially different benchmark can therefore affect the market's interpretation of the employment outlook and the expected path of interest rates.

The Preliminary Release Is a Separate Event

The August preliminary benchmark is released independently from the normal 8:30 a.m. monthly NFP release. For 2026, the national preliminary benchmark is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on August 28.

The Annual Release Arrives With NFP

The final annual benchmark is incorporated with the January Employment Situation in February. News-trading systems therefore need to distinguish current-month payroll data from benchmark and historical-revision fields arriving in the same release.

HAAWKS view: benchmark data deserve their own structured fields. A large benchmark revision can change the historical employment picture even when the current monthly NFP headline receives most of the attention. For low-latency news traders, identifying the exact field, observation period, seasonal-adjustment status and preliminary or final status is essential.

Preliminary vs. Annual Benchmark: What Traders Need to Distinguish

Feature	Preliminary Benchmark	Annual / Final Benchmark
Typical Timing	Late August / early September	February with January Employment Situation
Key Reference Month	March	March, plus revised historical monthly series
Preliminary Release Updates Official CES Series?	No	Yes
HAAWKS Initial Coverage	2 machine-readable fields	5 machine-readable fields
News-Trading Focus	Size and direction of the preliminary benchmark difference	Final benchmark plus revised seasonally adjusted employment levels

HAAWKS Conclusion

HAAWKS is adding seven machine-readable CES benchmark-revision data points to expand G4A coverage of the U.S. labor market beyond the standard monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Two fields will cover the annual CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision, beginning with the March 2026 benchmark scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Five additional fields will cover the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, including March benchmark revisions and seasonally adjusted March and December employment revisions.

The historical evidence explains why these numbers deserve attention. From 2016–2020, the average absolute preliminary total-nonfarm revision was only 0.12%. In 2021–2025, it increased to 0.34%. For total private employment, the corresponding increase was from 0.18% to 0.46%.

The 2024 and 2025 revisions were unusually large, so the evidence should not be interpreted as proof that revisions will continue increasing each year. It does, however, demonstrate that benchmark releases can contain economically significant information and should not be overlooked by professional news traders.

For latency-sensitive strategies, the challenge is not merely receiving the release quickly. It is receiving each data point with the correct reference period, seasonal-adjustment status, units and observation status in a structured format that can be processed immediately.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

New CES Benchmark Data Coming to HAAWKS G4A

HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data for professional news traders. The new CES benchmark fields expand our coverage of U.S. labor-market releases and will be available through the same machine-readable API infrastructure.

HAAWKS G4A data is available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources & Methodology

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics
Official CES program page and current release schedule.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2026 Release Calendar
Confirms the March 2026 national preliminary CES benchmark release for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark
Official preliminary benchmark release, methodology and benchmark revision tables.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Technical Notes for the CES National Benchmark
Used for benchmark definitions, historical benchmark information and methodology.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — January 2026 Employment Situation
Used for the final March 2025 benchmark revision and the annual incorporation of benchmarked CES data.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Situation
Confirms that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be issued with the January 2027 Employment Situation in February 2027.
HAAWKS Research — CES Preliminary Benchmark Revisions, 2016–2025
Historical preliminary benchmark figures compiled from BLS preliminary benchmark announcements and contemporaneous archived releases. Statistical calculations use the preliminary March not-seasonally-adjusted percentage revisions. Revisions reported by BLS as less than 0.05% in absolute magnitude for 2018 were encoded as 0.0% for percentage-based statistical calculations.

Comment

July 2026 NFP Shock: 23K Job Loss Triggers Sharp Moves in FX, Gold and US500

August 7, 2026

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 42 pips, EURUSD moved 19 pips, XAUUSD (spot gold) moved 17 points and US500 moved 56 ticks (117 ticks total) on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 7 August 2026.

1415 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

USDJPY (42 pips)

EURUSD (19 pips)

XAUUSD (17 points)

US500 (56 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

July 2026 NFP Shock: Payrolls Fall 23K as Markets Reprice the Fed

A surprise contraction in U.S. payrolls, weaker wage growth and another round of large downward revisions triggered rapid moves across FX, gold and U.S. equity indices.

August 7, 2026 • Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET • U.S. Employment Situation

The July 2026 U.S. Employment Situation delivered a significantly weaker labor-market signal than news traders had expected. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000, compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for an 80,000 increase.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the improvement in the headline rate came alongside another decline in labor force participation. The participation rate slipped to 61.4%, while the civilian labor force contracted by 264,000.

For news traders, the details behind the headline were arguably even more important. May and June payroll growth was revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs, while annual average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2%.

HAAWKS first read: this was not simply a weak headline NFP print. The combination of a 103,000-job downside surprise versus consensus, substantial prior-month revisions, softer wage growth and weaker labor-force participation produced a distinctly dovish labor-market signal.

NFP Estimates vs. Actual Release

Nonfarm Payrolls −23K Reuters consensus: +80K

Unemployment Rate 4.1% Forecast: 4.2%

Wage Growth YoY 3.2% Forecast: 3.5%

Prior Revisions −103K May + June combined

July 2026 U.S. Employment Situation estimates compared with actual results
Labor Indicator	Expectation	Actual	HAAWKS News-Trader Read
Nonfarm Payrolls	+80K	−23K	A 103K downside surprise versus consensus and the primary negative headline for the dollar.
Unemployment Rate	4.2%	4.1%	Better on the surface, but less supportive once the decline in labor-force participation was taken into account.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.5%	3.2%	Softer wage pressure reinforced the dovish interpretation of the employment report.
Labor Force Participation	—	61.4%	Participation edged down from 61.5%, helping explain why the unemployment rate fell despite weak employment conditions.
May Payroll Revision	Previous: +129K	+63K	Revised lower by 66K.
June Payroll Revision	Previous: +57K	+20K	Revised lower by 37K.

Immediate Market Reaction

The HAAWKS release-window measurements show how quickly the labor-market surprise was incorporated into prices. The initial response was consistent across the major macro markets: the U.S. dollar weakened, gold rallied and U.S. equities moved higher as traders reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening.

USD/JPY −42.1 pips 16 seconds

EUR/USD +19.4 pips 12 seconds

XAU/USD +17.96 points 11 seconds

US500 +14.6 points 18 seconds

Immediate market reaction following the July 2026 NFP release
Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Direction	News-Trader Interpretation
USD/JPY	42.1 pips	16 seconds	Lower	The strongest measured FX reaction as the weak employment figures triggered rapid dollar selling against the yen.
EUR/USD	19.4 pips	12 seconds	Higher	Broad dollar weakness pushed the euro higher immediately after the release.
XAU/USD	17.96 points	11 seconds	Higher	Gold reacted quickly to lower yields, dollar weakness and a reduction in expected Federal Reserve tightening.
US500	14.6 index points	18 seconds	Higher	Equity traders initially focused on the lower-rate implications of the employment miss rather than the negative growth signal.

Why This Release Mattered to News Traders

1. The Headline Surprise Was Large

Payrolls were expected to rise by 80,000 but instead declined by 23,000. For automated and discretionary news traders, the 103,000-job gap versus consensus immediately changed the macro interpretation of the release.

2. Revisions Reinforced the Signal

May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. That mattered because the release did not just report a weak July; it also showed that the preceding labor-market picture had been weaker than initially reported.

3. Unemployment Sent a Mixed Message

A fall in unemployment to 4.1% would ordinarily be interpreted as labor-market strength. However, the labor force shrank and participation slipped to 61.4%, reducing the positive impact of the headline unemployment rate.

4. Wage Growth Also Missed

Annual average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2% versus the 3.5% rate economists had expected. For rate-sensitive markets, softer wages added another dovish element to an already weak payroll report.

HAAWKS view: for news traders, this was a release where the components largely pointed in the same direction. The headline payroll miss, negative revisions and softer wage growth outweighed the lower unemployment rate. The result was a fast cross-asset repricing: USD lower, gold higher and equities higher.

Sector Detail: Where the Jobs Were Lost

The weakness was not evenly distributed across the economy. Local government education employment declined by 50,000, while retail trade lost 19,000 jobs. Financial activities employment continued to trend lower, falling by 14,000.

Health care remained one of the few areas of continued employment growth, adding 22,000 jobs during July, although that was slower than its average monthly gain over the previous year.

Selected July 2026 employment changes by industry
Industry	July Change	HAAWKS Read-through
Local Government Education	−50K	The largest highlighted sector decline in the July report.
Retail Trade	−19K	Added to the evidence of weaker overall hiring momentum.
Financial Activities	−14K	Continued an existing downward employment trend.
Health Care	+22K	Continued to add jobs, but at a slower pace than its prior 12-month average.

The Fed Repricing

Before the release, markets were debating whether persistent inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its September meeting. The unexpectedly weak jobs report materially reduced that probability.

That shift helps explain why assets that normally benefit from lower interest-rate expectations reacted so quickly. Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar weakened, gold advanced and U.S. stock futures initially rallied.

For news traders, the key point is that the market was not trading the payroll number in isolation. It was trading how the employment surprise changed the expected path of monetary policy.

News Trading Takeaways

Headline Data Is Only the First Layer

A fast NFP strategy must be able to process more than the payroll headline. Unemployment, wage growth and revisions can either confirm or contradict the initial signal.

Revisions Can Be Market-Moving

The 103,000 combined downward revision to May and June strengthened the bearish labor-market message. In some releases, prior-period revisions can matter as much as the current month's number.

Cross-Asset Confirmation Matters

USD/JPY lower, EUR/USD higher, gold higher and US500 higher represented a coherent initial macro reaction. When several rate-sensitive markets respond in the same direction, news traders receive useful confirmation of the market's interpretation.

Execution Risk Remains Critical

A measured market move is not the same as an achievable trading result. During high-impact releases, spreads can widen, liquidity can disappear, prices can gap and slippage can increase. Latency, order type, venue and risk controls remain critical to actual execution.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 2026 NFP release delivered a much weaker labor-market picture than traders had expected.

Nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 versus expectations for an 80,000 increase. May and June were revised down by another 103,000 jobs, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%.

Although unemployment fell to 4.1%, declining labor-force participation reduced the strength of that signal. The broader message from the report was therefore clearly softer than the headline unemployment rate alone suggested.

The immediate market reaction reflected that interpretation. HAAWKS measured 42.1 pips in USD/JPY in 16 seconds, 19.4 pips in EUR/USD in 12 seconds, 17.96 points in XAU/USD in 11 seconds and 14.6 index points in US500 in 18 seconds.

For news traders, the release is a useful example of why low-latency access to the complete data set matters. The payroll headline, unemployment rate, wage figures and revisions all arrived together and collectively determined the market's interpretation within seconds.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Built for News Traders

HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data directly from official sources for professional algorithmic and manual news trading.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Data Feeds

Sources

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, July 2026
Official source for nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, labor-force participation, earnings, industry employment and prior-month revisions.
Reuters — U.S. job growth expected to pick up in July
Used for the pre-release economist consensus of +80K payrolls, 4.2% unemployment and 3.5% annual wage growth.
Reuters — U.S. suffers unexpected job losses in July
Used for post-release labor-market and financial-market context.
Reuters — Dollar drops after weak U.S. jobs data
Used for broader FX and gold-market reaction following the report.
Reuters — Markets reduce odds of September Fed rate hike
Used for the post-NFP monetary-policy repricing.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — August 7, 2026
Used for the measured release-window reactions in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, XAU/USD and US500.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points for Agricultural Markets

July 18, 2026

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points

HAAWKS announcement for 40 weekly USDA Export Sales data points covering wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice.

On Thursday, July 16, 2026, HAAWKS expanded its agricultural market coverage with the launch of 40 structured data points from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.

Published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET throughout the year, the report provides one of the most timely official indicators of international demand for U.S. agricultural commodities.

The new HAAWKS dataset covers weekly net export sales for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice, with separate values for the current and next marketing years.

Unlike reports released after agricultural markets have closed, the Weekly Export Sales Report is published while the principal futures contracts are actively trading. This makes speed, accurate normalization, and machine-readable delivery especially important for algorithmic and event-driven market participants.

What HAAWKS Delivers

HAAWKS will disseminate 40 data points covering five major commodity groups and their relevant product classifications.

  
          Commodity
        
          Data Coverage
        
          Wheat

          Various types and classes
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Corn
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Soybeans

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Cotton

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Rice

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year

The individual product and commodity classifications provide more detailed information than a single headline export-sales figure. This allows users to identify differences in demand across crop types, qualities, and delivery periods.

Why Weekly Export Sales Matter

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report provides a current view of overseas demand for U.S. agricultural products.

Strong net sales may indicate improving international demand, increased forward purchasing, or progress toward USDA full-year export projections. Weak sales, cancellations, or net reductions may point to softer demand, changing destination activity, or stronger competition from other exporting countries.

However, the market does not react only to whether sales appear high or low.

The most important signal is frequently the difference between the reported value and what market participants expected before the release.

A weekly corn export-sales figure may be supportive if it exceeds expectations, but the same figure may be disappointing if traders anticipated an even larger result.

For systematic analysis, the core event signal can be expressed as:

Export-sales surprise = reported net sales − expected net sales

The size and direction of that surprise can then be assessed alongside:

The previous reporting week
Recent weekly averages
Seasonal export patterns
Outstanding export commitments
Reported cancellations
Major destination activity
Progress toward USDA export projections
Current and next marketing year allocations

Current and Next Marketing Year Sales

HAAWKS provides separate data points for the current marketing year and the next marketing year.

Current marketing year net sales represent new commitments, adjustments, and cancellations for delivery during the active marketing year. These figures are particularly relevant to near-term demand and the pace required to meet annual export forecasts.

Next marketing year net sales represent forward commitments for delivery after the current marketing year ends. They can provide an early indication of demand for the upcoming crop cycle and may become increasingly important as the current marketing year approaches its conclusion.

Separating the two periods helps traders and analysts distinguish immediate demand from longer-term purchasing activity.

It also prevents a large next-year sale from being interpreted as an equally strong signal for nearby supply and demand conditions.

What Are Net Export Sales?

Net export sales represent newly reported sales after accounting for cancellations, reductions, destination changes, and other adjustments.

A positive number generally indicates that new sales exceeded cancellations and reductions during the reporting period.

A negative number can occur when cancellations or downward adjustments are larger than newly reported sales.

Net sales are therefore not the same as physical exports or shipments. A sale represents a commitment, while an export represents the physical movement of the commodity.

For a complete demand assessment, traders may compare net sales with:

Physical exports
Outstanding sales
Accumulated exports
Destination-level activity
Historical seasonal patterns
USDA annual export forecasts

Released During Active Futures Trading

The report is published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET while major agricultural futures markets are open.

CME grain and oilseed futures, including corn, soybeans, and wheat, continue trading until 8:45 AM ET during the overnight session. Trading then pauses before the main daytime session begins at 9:30 AM ET.

ICE Cotton No. 2 futures are also actively trading at 8:30 AM ET.

This creates two important reaction windows.

  
          Time
        
          Market Event
        
          Relevance
        
          8:30 AM ET
        
          USDA Weekly Export Sales Report released
        
          Immediate data ingestion and event detection
        
          8:30–8:45 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed futures remain open
        
          Initial algorithmic price discovery
        
          8:45–9:30 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed trading pause
        
          Further analysis and order preparation
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          CME daytime session begins
        
          Broader liquidity and potential follow-through
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          Regular U.S. stock and ETF trading begins
        
          Potential reaction in related listed instruments

The 15-minute period between the report release and the end of the overnight CME session is especially relevant for automated traders.

During this window, systems can ingest the new figures, compare them with expectations, identify material surprises, apply risk controls, and generate trading signals while the underlying futures remain tradable.

Directly Relevant Markets

The data is most directly relevant to futures and options linked to the commodities included in the report:

CBOT corn futures and options
CBOT soybean futures and options
CBOT wheat futures and options
KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
CBOT rough rice futures and options

The report may also be relevant to related commodity spreads and processing relationships, including soybean crush components and differences among wheat classes.

The strength of the market reaction depends on more than the headline figure. It can also be affected by the reporting period, destination, size of revisions or cancellations, seasonal demand, existing positioning, liquidity, and whether the result was already anticipated.

Designed for Algorithmic Trading Workflows

Many HAAWKS clients consume market news through automated or algorithmic systems rather than by manually reading and interpreting reports.

For these users, an official report published as a document or web page must first be converted into standardized fields before it can be used reliably.

HAAWKS transforms the USDA release into structured data points designed for systematic consumption.

The dataset can support workflows such as:

Real-time event detection
Automated estimate comparison
Surprise calculation
Commodity and product classification
Current-year and next-year separation
Cancellation and net-reduction detection
Historical event analysis
Quantitative model inputs
Automated alerts
Trading signal generation
Risk-management checks
Dashboard and API integration

Consistent field definitions are particularly important when the same report contains numerous commodities, product types, marketing years, destinations, and adjustments.

By normalizing the data, HAAWKS allows systems to compare each new observation with prior releases without repeatedly interpreting the underlying report structure.

From Release to Market Signal

An algorithmic workflow may process the report in several stages:

Receive the structured HAAWKS data.
Validate the commodity, product type, and marketing year.
Compare the reported figure with the expected value.
Calculate the size and direction of the surprise.
Compare the result with prior weeks and historical ranges.
Apply commodity-specific signal thresholds.
Check liquidity, market conditions, and risk limits.
Generate an alert, analytical output, or trading instruction.

Not every statistical surprise creates a meaningful price move.

A large soybean sales figure, for example, may have limited impact if it was widely expected or if it reflects a previously announced transaction. Conversely, an unexpected cancellation or net reduction may matter even when the absolute weekly figure appears relatively small.

The HAAWKS dataset provides the structured inputs needed for users to make those distinctions within their own models and strategies.

More Than a Headline Figure

The detailed structure of the Weekly Export Sales Report helps users look beyond aggregate demand.

Important questions include:

Which commodity or product class was sold?
Does the sale apply to the current or next marketing year?
Were previous commitments cancelled or reduced?
Which destinations were involved?
Are sales concentrated among one or several buyers?
How does the result compare with the pace needed to meet USDA projections?
Are reported commitments translating into physical exports?
Is one commodity class performing differently from another?

For wheat, cotton, rice, and soybeans, product-level differences can be particularly important. Strong demand for one class or type does not necessarily imply equally strong demand for the broader commodity category.

Expanding HAAWKS Agricultural Coverage

The addition of USDA Weekly Export Sales data strengthens HAAWKS’ coverage of both the demand and supply sides of agricultural markets.

USDA Crop Progress data provides insight into planting, crop development, condition, and harvest activity.

USDA Export Sales data provides insight into international demand, cancellations, and forward purchasing commitments.

Together, the datasets help users monitor how U.S. production conditions interact with global demand throughout the agricultural cycle.

By delivering official USDA information in a clean, structured, and machine-readable format, HAAWKS helps traders and analysts move more efficiently from report publication to systematic market analysis.

For algorithmic participants, that means receiving structured data while the directly relevant futures markets are still trading.

Sources

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Export Sales Reporting Program
Official information about the reporting program and the Thursday 8:30 AM ET release schedule.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Weekly Export Sales
Official weekly reports and downloadable export-sales data.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports
CME Group — Corn Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT corn futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
CME Group — Soybean Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT soybean futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/oilseeds/soybean.html
CME Group — Chicago Wheat Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.html
CME Group — KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Contract information for KC HRW wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/kc-wheat.html
CME Group — Rough Rice Futures
Contract information and trading hours for rough rice futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/rough-rice.html
ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
Official contract specifications and trading hours.
https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Comment

Natural Gas Futures Drop 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds After EIA Storage Report

July 18, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 16 July 2026.

1298 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Natural Gas Storage Build Triggers a 39-Tick Selloff in 11 Seconds

U.S. natural gas futures reacted sharply after the EIA reported a 41 Bcf storage injection, with the market looking beyond the slightly smaller-than-expected build to focus on abundant inventories and strong domestic production.

July 16, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • Week ending July 10, 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that working natural gas inventories increased by 41 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 10, bringing total Lower 48 storage to 3,024 Bcf.

The build was slightly smaller than the Reuters analyst consensus of 43 Bcf and below the five-year average injection of 45 Bcf. Despite the modestly tighter weekly flow, natural gas sold off immediately after the release.

HAAWKS first read: The market did not treat the smaller-than-expected injection as a sustainable bullish signal. Traders instead focused on inventories remaining 6.4% above the five-year average, rising production and softer LNG feedgas demand.

Storage Report at a Glance

Weekly Injection +41 Bcf Reuters consensus: +43 Bcf

Total Storage 3,024 Bcf Lower 48 working gas

vs. Five-Year Average +181 Bcf 6.4% above average

vs. One Year Ago −21 Bcf 0.7% below last year

Weekly natural gas storage report compared with forecasts and historical levels
Storage Indicator	Reported	Comparison	HAAWKS Read-through
Weekly Net Change	+41 Bcf	Reuters forecast: +43 Bcf	The injection was 2 Bcf below consensus, representing a slightly tighter weekly result than expected.
Five-Year Average Injection	+45 Bcf	Actual was 4 Bcf smaller	The weekly flow was below normal, but the total inventory surplus remained substantial.
Total Working Gas	3,024 Bcf	3,045 Bcf one year ago	Inventories were 21 Bcf, or 0.7%, below the comparable year-earlier level.
Five-Year Average Stocks	2,843 Bcf	Current stocks: +181 Bcf	The 6.4% storage surplus continued to provide a bearish buffer against weather-driven demand.

Immediate Market Reaction

39 Ticks Lower

Natural Gas Fell 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds

The HAAWKS tick chart recorded an immediate 39-tick decline in natural gas within the first 11 seconds following the 10:30 a.m. ET storage release. The speed of the move showed that the market interpreted the broader storage and supply backdrop as bearish, despite the injection coming in slightly below expectations.

Natural gas market reaction following the weekly EIA storage report
Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Initial Direction	Interpretation
Natural Gas	39 ticks	11 seconds	Lower	Immediate selling indicated that surplus inventories and broader supply conditions outweighed the slightly smaller weekly build.

Regional Storage Breakdown

The Midwest recorded the largest regional injection at 20 Bcf, followed by the East with 14 Bcf. The South Central region added only 3 Bcf as a 5 Bcf withdrawal from salt facilities partially offset an 8 Bcf injection into nonsalt storage.

Regional changes in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending July 10, 2026
Region	Working Gas	Weekly Change	vs. Last Year	vs. Five-Year Average
East	614 Bcf	+14 Bcf	−1.9%	+1.7%
Midwest	749 Bcf	+20 Bcf	+3.0%	+6.2%
Mountain	240 Bcf	+4 Bcf	+2.6%	+21.2%
Pacific	319 Bcf	0 Bcf	+8.5%	+21.8%
South Central	1,103 Bcf	+3 Bcf	−5.2%	+2.7%
Total Lower 48	3,024 Bcf	+41 Bcf	−0.7%	+6.4%

Why Did Natural Gas Fall?

The Storage Surplus Remained Large

Although the weekly injection was slightly smaller than expected, inventories remained 181 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus continued to limit concerns about supply availability during the summer cooling season.

Production Remained Strong

Lower 48 natural gas production averaged approximately 110.3 Bcf per day during July. Strong output gave the market confidence that storage could remain adequately supplied even as electricity demand increased.

LNG Feedgas Flows Were Below Their Peak

Feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals averaged around 17.4 Bcf per day during July, below the record level reached in April. Reduced export demand left more domestic supply available to the U.S. market.

HAAWKS view: The 41 Bcf injection was nominally supportive because it came in below both consensus and the five-year average. However, the 39-tick selloff showed that traders placed greater weight on the continuing inventory surplus, high production and subdued LNG demand.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Weather remains the most important near-term variable. Sustained heat across the Midwest and East could increase power-sector gas consumption and produce a smaller injection in the next storage report.

Traders should also monitor Lower 48 production, LNG terminal activity and the pace at which the five-year storage surplus narrows. A series of tighter injections would be more important than a single below-average build.

The next EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for July 23, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 16 natural gas storage report delivered a slightly tighter result than expected. The 41 Bcf injection was below the 43 Bcf Reuters consensus and the 45 Bcf five-year average build.

The immediate market response was nevertheless decisively bearish. Natural gas dropped 39 ticks in only 11 seconds, demonstrating that the market remained more concerned with abundant total inventories than with the modest weekly miss.

Total working gas stood at 3,024 Bcf—21 Bcf below the prior-year level but still 181 Bcf above the five-year average. This left the market adequately supplied and reduced the urgency to price a near-term shortage.

The key message is that the headline injection cannot be viewed in isolation. Storage levels, production, weather, electricity demand and LNG exports collectively determine whether a report is genuinely bullish or bearish.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Official source for the 41 Bcf injection, total Lower 48 inventories, regional storage changes and comparisons with last year and the five-year average.
Reuters — U.S. natural gas prices slide on rising production and ample storage
Used for the 43 Bcf analyst consensus, five-year average injection, production, LNG flows and broader futures-market context.
HAAWKS internal natural gas tick-chart analysis — July 16, 2026
Used for the measured release-window market reaction of 39 ticks lower in 11 seconds.

Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data is one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

Blog

USDA Grain Stocks Trigger Sharp Repricing Across Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

Immediate Cross-Grain Market Reaction

September 1 Stocks vs. Market Expectations

Corn: Stocks Exceed the Entire Survey Range

Soybeans: Stocks Come In Below Expectations

Wheat Stocks Decline from the Prior Year

Three Crops, Different Inventory Profiles

Corn Inventories

Soybean Inventories

Wheat Inventories

Cross-Market Repricing

Storage Location Adds Another Layer of Information

Indicated Disappearance Provides Demand Context

Why Grain Stocks Requires Multi-Field Processing

Implications for Event-Driven Commodity Strategies

Consensus Is Part of the Data Set

Consensus Sources Should Be Identified Explicitly

Each Commodity Requires Independent Parsing

Storage Location Matters

Release Vintage Should Be Preserved

Tick Movement Is Contract-Specific

Immediate Market Response

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

Sources

EIA Petroleum Data: WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Product Draws Offset Crude Build

Inventory Results vs. Market Expectations

WTI Moves 24 Ticks Higher

The Product Draws Were the More Important Tightness Signal

Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories Fell 7 Million Barrels

Lower Refinery Runs Help Explain the Inventory Split

Cushing Added a Negative Counter-Signal

Crude Supply and Flow Data

Product Supplied Remained Firm

Why Could WTI Rise Despite an Unexpected Crude Build?

Product Draws Were Much Larger Than Expected

Distillate Stocks Were Already Tight

Total Commercial Stocks Declined

Refining Activity Fell

The Crude Headline Alone Was Insufficient

Release-Window Reaction vs. the Broader Oil Session

Implications for Low-Latency Commodity Strategies

Process the Entire Petroleum Balance

Compare Actual Data with Consensus

Preserve Relationships Between Fields

Separate Absolute Stocks from Weekly Changes

Distinguish Release-Window Movement from Daily Performance

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

Sources

Softer PCE Inflation Sends US500 Up 68 Ticks as Dollar Weakens

Immediate Cross-Asset Reaction

August PCE: The Dominant Release-Window Signal

An Important Institutional Caveat: The PCE Data Were Revised

The Consumer Remained Exceptionally Strong

GDP Delivered a Powerful Counter-Signal

Underlying Domestic Demand Was Stronger Than Headline GDP

Corporate Profits Added to the Growth Signal

Why the Inflation Signal Won the First Policy Repricing

Inflation Undershot Expectations

The Data Were Directly Relevant to the Fed

GDP Was Backward Looking

Growth Remained a Hawkish Counterweight

Federal Reserve Expectations Repriced Lower

One Timestamp, Multiple Macro Signals

Implications for Institutional News-Trading Systems

Field-Level Parsing Is Essential

Release Vintage Must Be Preserved

Surprise Direction Is Not Enough

Cross-Asset Confirmation Adds Information

Release-Window Movement Is Not Full-Session Performance

Immediate Reaction vs. the Full Trading Session

HAAWKS Conclusion

Low-Latency Macro Data for Institutional Markets

Sources

September 2026 WASDE: Corn Jumps 52 Ticks, Wheat 32 and Soybeans 28

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout