41 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 12 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 41 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 12 June 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (21 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Jobless Claims Steady, But Trends Show Rising Insured Unemployment. Producer Prices Edge Up: What It Means for the U.S. Economy

Published: June 12, 2025

The latest economic data paints a picture of a U.S. economy that’s holding steady—but showing some signs of strain beneath the surface. Two major releases today from the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provide insight into both the labor market and inflation trends.

Unemployment Claims Show Stability in New Layoffs, But Pressure is Mounting

Initial jobless claims remained flat at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, 2025 (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised figure. However, the 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023—an early signal that labor market softening may be gaining momentum.

Key takeaways:

• Continued claims (insured unemployment) climbed to 1.96 million, up by 54,000, the highest level since November 2021.

• The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%, from 1.2% the previous week.

• Unadjusted initial claims rose 17.1% to 244,752, reflecting real increases in layoffs.

Notable State-Level Trends:

• Increases: Kentucky (+3,967, due to manufacturing layoffs), Minnesota (+2,364, education sector), and Tennessee (+1,764).

• Decreases: Michigan (-3,783), Florida (-1,456), and Massachusetts (-1,585) saw fewer layoffs across multiple sectors.

These trends suggest that while broad-based layoffs remain limited, certain industries—particularly manufacturing and education—are facing headwinds.

Producer Prices Inch Up: Inflation Pressures Persist in Select Areas

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following declines in April (-0.2%) and March (-0.1%). Over the past 12 months, the index has increased 2.6%, signaling moderate but persistent inflationary pressure on wholesale goods and services.

Breakdown of May PPI Data:

• Final Demand Goods: Rose 0.2%, driven by increases in tobacco products, processed poultry, and roasted coffee.

• Final Demand Services: Up 0.1%, thanks to higher margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, though airline passenger services dropped 1.1%.

• Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services): Also increased 0.1%, with a 12-month increase of 2.7%.

Intermediate Demand Trends:

• Processed goods for intermediate demand increased 0.1%, but unprocessed goods dropped 1.6%, driven by an 18.7% plunge in natural gas prices.

• Prices for services for intermediate demand also rose slightly, lifted by increases in metals and minerals wholesaling and property management fees.

Economic Interpretation

Together, these two reports reflect a labor market with pockets of weakness and a producer-side inflation landscape that is not retreating quickly. While jobless claims aren’t yet surging, rising continued claims hint at a cooling labor market—potentially making it harder for displaced workers to quickly find new jobs.

At the same time, the small rise in producer prices—particularly in core goods and services—could keep inflation concerns alive at the Federal Reserve, which has paused rate hikes but continues to watch price dynamics closely.

What to Watch Going Forward

• Will continued unemployment claims persist above 1.9 million?

• How will consumer inflation respond to rising wholesale prices?

• Will industries like manufacturing and education see further layoffs?

The June data provides a snapshot of an economy in delicate balance—neither overheating nor in clear decline. As the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves and policymakers monitor both job and price data, the coming months will be pivotal for understanding the full trajectory of the U.S. recovery.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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3 pips and BTC 222 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 11 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and BTC on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 3 pips and BTC moved 222 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 June 2025.

USDJPY (1 pip)

EURUSD (2 pips)

BTC (222 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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May 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Holds Steady, Energy Prices Drag Down Headline Numbers

June 12, 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2025, and the data shows a continued cooling in inflation, with a slight 0.1% increase in consumer prices on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a slowdown from April’s 0.2% increase and offers further evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating—albeit unevenly across categories.

Headline Figures at a Glance

• Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted): +0.1% in May

• 12-month CPI (unadjusted): +2.4%

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.1% for the month; +2.8% year-over-year

• Energy index: -1.0% for the month; -3.5% year-over-year

• Food index: +0.3% for the month; +2.9% year-over-year

What’s Driving the Numbers?

Shelter Continues to Lead

Shelter prices rose 0.3% in May, maintaining a steady upward climb that has been a consistent inflation driver over the past year. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up 3.9%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall price increase.

Food Prices Edge Up

Food prices increased 0.3% in May, reversing April’s slight decline. The increase was spread across both food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%). Notably:

• Cereals and bakery products rose 1.1%

• Egg prices dropped 2.7%, though they’re still up 41.5% year-over-year

• Fruits and vegetables nudged up 0.3%, but are down 0.5% over the year

Energy Prices Plunge

Energy was the biggest drag on the overall index. The energy index dropped 1.0%, led by a 2.6% decline in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months:

• Gasoline is down 12.0%

• Fuel oil is down 8.6%

• Electricity, however, is up 4.5%

• Natural gas soared 15.3%

Core Services Show Mild Growth

Excluding food and energy, prices rose only 0.1% in May. Increases were noted in:

• Medical care services (+0.2%)

• Motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%)

• Education (+0.3%)

At the same time, several consumer items saw declines, including:

• Used cars and trucks (-0.5%)

• New vehicles (-0.3%)

• Apparel (-0.4%)

• Airline fares (-2.7%)

What Does This Mean?

The May CPI report underscores a key theme: inflation is slowing but not uniformly. Core inflation remains sticky, especially in services like shelter and insurance, while energy and some goods prices continue to drop, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room as it weighs future interest rate decisions.

A 2.4% annual inflation rate is close to the Fed’s 2% target, but the 2.8% core inflation figure suggests more progress is needed before declaring full victory over inflation.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead, two major changes are coming:

• Rebasing of CPI series starting in July 2025 will align selected indexes to a new reference base of December 2024 = 100.

• Changes to wireless services CPI methodology beginning with July data will use alternative data sources and methods to reflect real-time pricing trends more accurately.

The June CPI report is scheduled for release on July 15, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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37 pips, US500 11 points and BTC 209 points potential profit in 18 seconds on 6 June 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD, US500 and BTC on US Employment Situation (NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 37 pips, US500 moved 11 points and BTC moved 209 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 June 2025.

USDJPY (24 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

US500 (11 points)

BTC (209 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Job Market Update: May 2025 Shows Steady Growth but Signs of Cooling

The U.S. labor market maintained moderate momentum in May 2025, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by 139,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, continuing a 12-month trend of hovering between 4.0% and 4.2%.

Key Highlights

• Job Growth by Sector:

  • Health Care led the way with +62,000 jobs, particularly in hospitals and ambulatory services.

  • Leisure and Hospitality added +48,000 jobs, mostly in food services and bars.

  • Social Assistance grew by +16,000 jobs, continuing its steady upward trend.

  • Federal Government employment continued to decline, down 22,000 jobs in May and 59,000 since January.

• Wages and Hours:

  • Average hourly earnings rose by $0.15 to $36.24, a 0.4% monthly increase, and 3.9% over the past year.

  • The average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours.

• Labor Force Metrics:

  • The employment-population ratio slipped to 59.7%, and labor force participation decreased to 62.4%.

  • Long-term unemployment dropped by 218,000 to 1.5 million, making up 20.4% of total unemployment.

  • Those jobless for less than 5 weeks rose by 264,000 to 2.5 million.

Revisions & Notes

• March and April job gains were revised downward by a combined 95,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market may be slightly weaker than previously believed.

• A minor correction was made to April’s household survey data due to the rollout of a redesigned sample.

• A shift in classification of certain New York state workers impacted industry employment counts, transferring jobs from health care to social assistance.

Takeaway

The May report signals a job market that remains resilient but cautious. While job growth continues, it’s slower than the pace seen earlier in the recovery. Wage growth is steady, but softening participation and revisions to previous months hint at underlying labor market fragility. All eyes will be on the June report, due July 3, for confirmation of any emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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33 pips and US500 6 points potential profit in 24 seconds on 5 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 33 pips and US500 moved 6 points on US Jobless Claims data on 5 June 2025.

USDJPY (24 pips)

EURUSD (9 points)

US500 (6 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Claims Edge Up in Late May, 2025: Signs of a Softening Labor Market?

Published: June 5, 2025

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows a modest increase in new unemployment claims, potentially signaling slight softening in the labor market as we head into summer.

Key Highlights from the Week Ending May 31, 2025:

• Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
  New filings for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 239,000.
  This is the highest weekly figure in recent months and above the 4-week average of 235,000, which itself ticked up by 4,500.

• 4-Week Moving Average Trend:
  Continues to climb, now at its highest since late 2021, suggesting a potential shift in labor market conditions.

• Insured Unemployment:
  The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell slightly to 1.9 million, a drop of 3,000 from the prior week.
  However, the 4-week moving average rose to 1,895,250 — its highest since November 2021.

• Insured Unemployment Rate:
  Decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, both on a seasonally and unadjusted basis.

Unadjusted Insights: May 31 Snapshot

• Initial Claims (Unadjusted):
  Dropped to 208,642, down 3,128 from the previous week.
  However, this was a smaller decline than expected, and still higher than the 196,177 claims filed during the same week last year.

• Insured Unemployment (Unadjusted):
  Decreased by 18,524 to 1,757,031 — although this figure is still nearly 87,000 higher than the same week in 2024.

Notable State Activity

Some states saw significant week-over-week shifts in initial claims:

Increases:

• Michigan: +3,259 (due to manufacturing layoffs)

• Nebraska: +1,328 (also driven by manufacturing job losses)

• California: +1,041 (no specific reason provided)

Decreases:

• No states reported weekly declines of more than 1,000.

Among states with the highest insured unemployment rates:

• New Jersey leads at 2.2%, followed by California and Washington at 2.1%.

Federal Program Claims

• Federal Civilian Employees:
  538 initial claims (down 72); 6,719 continued weeks claimed (up 341)

• Newly Discharged Veterans:
  295 initial claims (down 79); 4,486 continued weeks claimed (down 83)

Big Picture Takeaway

While these fluctuations are not dramatic, the steady rise in the 4-week moving averages for both initial and continued claims may be an early signal of a cooling labor market. In particular, manufacturing layoffs in several key states are contributing to localized increases in claims.

That said, the insured unemployment rate remains relatively low at 1.2%, suggesting overall employment levels are still strong by historical standards.

Keep an Eye On...

• Future reports to see whether this increase is temporary or becomes a trend

• Sector-specific layoff patterns — particularly in manufacturing

• State-level policy shifts or economic factors driving regional changes in claims

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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10 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 3 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 10 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on 3 June 2025.

USDJPY (6 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Job Market Holds Steady in April 2025, Says BLS Report

The U.S. job market showed little movement in April 2025, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job openings remained steady at 7.4 million, while hires and separations also showed minimal changes, suggesting a stable yet cautiously progressing labor environment.

Key Highlights from the April 2025 JOLTS Report:

• Job Openings:
  The number of job openings stood at 7.4 million, with an unchanged rate of 4.4%. Notable industry shifts included:

  • Decrease in Accommodation and Food Services (–135,000)

  • Decrease in State and Local Government, Education (–51,000)

  • Increase in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (+43,000)

  • Slight uptick in Mining and Logging (+10,000)

• Hires:
  Total hires remained relatively flat at 5.6 million, with a 3.5% hire rate. No significant changes were recorded across major industries.

• Separations:
  Overall separations totaled 5.3 million with a rate of 3.3%, showing no major month-over-month movement. Breakdown includes:

  • Quits: Held steady at 3.2 million (2.0% rate), though down 220,000 year-over-year.

  • Layoffs and Discharges: Steady at 1.8 million (1.1% rate). Notable changes:

    • Increase in Health Care and Social Assistance (+52,000)

    • Decrease in State and Local Government (excl. education) (–14,000)

    • Decrease in Federal Government (–4,000)

  • Other Separations: Flat at 308,000

By Establishment Size:

Both very small (1–9 employees) and very large (5,000+ employees) establishments reported little or no change across all labor movement categories.

Revisions for March 2025:

• Job openings were revised up by 8,000 to 7.2 million

• Hires were revised down by 7,000 to 5.4 million

• Total separations were revised up by 46,000 to 5.2 million

  • Quits revised up by 12,000

  • Layoffs and Discharges revised up by 32,000

What This Means:

The April 2025 data suggests a labor market that’s holding steady but not showing strong momentum in either direction. Employers appear cautious, with few significant increases in hiring or layoffs, while worker confidence—measured by the quits rate—remains solid but slightly lower compared to last year.

As we look ahead to the next JOLTS update, scheduled for July 1, 2025, employers, job seekers, and policymakers alike will continue watching for signals of acceleration or slowdown in the broader U.S. economy.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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28 pips potential profit in 18 seconds on 29 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 29 May 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (11 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise to Highest Level Since 2021

Posted on: May 29, 2025

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) report from the U.S. Department of Labor reveals a notable uptick in jobless claims, signaling potential shifts in the U.S. labor market. For the week ending May 24, 2025, initial claims for seasonally adjusted unemployment benefits rose to 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 226,000. This marks the highest level of insured unemployment since November 2021.

Initial Claims at a Glance

Initial claims are often seen as a leading indicator of labor market health. The four-week moving average—a more stable measure—dropped slightly by 250 to 230,750, showing continued volatility but no dramatic trend yet.

Unadjusted data also reflected a jump: 212,506 actual claims were filed, up 10,742 (or 5.3%) from the previous week. This was in contrast to expectations of a modest decline, suggesting labor market softening in some states.

Rising Insured Unemployment

The insured unemployment rate, representing continued claims as a percentage of the covered workforce, climbed to 1.3%—up from 1.2% the week before. The total number of people receiving UI benefits rose to 1,919,000, up 26,000 from the prior week. This is the highest level of insured unemployment in over three years.

The four-week average for insured unemployment now stands at 1,890,250, the highest since November 2021. While not alarming in isolation, this metric tends to signal pressure points in the labor market when it trends upward.

Which States Are Leading the Changes?

Some states experienced sharper changes than others:

Increases in initial claims:

• Illinois (+1,162): Attributed to layoffs in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail.

• Missouri (+447) and Louisiana (+383) also saw jumps.

Decreases in claims:

• Virginia (-1,277) and Michigan (-1,192): Reported fewer layoffs, particularly in manufacturing.

Highest insured unemployment rates:

• New Jersey (2.2%)

• California and Washington (2.1%)

• Rhode Island (1.9%)

• District of Columbia and Massachusetts (1.8%)

Federal and Veteran Claims

Federal claims also rose slightly:

• Federal civilian employees: 610 initial claims (+15)

• Newly discharged veterans: 374 initial claims (+4)

Continued claims for these groups totaled:

• 6,378 (federal employees)

• 4,569 (veterans)

Total Benefits Claimed

Across all UI programs, 1,808,372 continued claims were filed for the week ending May 10, up by 492 from the prior week. This includes regular state benefits, federal programs, and special extensions.

Bottom Line: What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?

While the overall UI claims data remain within historical norms, the trend over recent weeks—particularly the rise in insured unemployment—warrants attention. Increases in claims across key sectors like manufacturing and retail may reflect broader economic cooling or transitional churn in employment.

Labor market watchers and policymakers will be closely monitoring next week’s data to determine whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of sustained labor market softening.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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42 ticks potential profit in 87 seconds on 21 May 2025, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 42 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report data on 21 May 2025.

Light sweet crude oil (42 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Weekly Petroleum Update: Refinery Activity Rises, Inventories Continue to Build

Published: May 21, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum data, covering the week ending May 16, 2025, reveals a modest uptick in refinery operations and a continued rise in inventories across several fuel categories, even as product demand shows year-over-year declines.

Refinery Inputs and Production

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day, an increase of 89,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Refineries operated at 90.7% capacity, maintaining a strong operational pace heading into the summer driving season.

Fuel production also saw gains:

• Gasoline production rose to an average of 9.6 million barrels per day.

• Distillate fuel production increased significantly, up 131,000 barrels per day to an average of 4.7 million barrels per day.

Imports on the Rise

Crude oil imports increased notably, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day, up 247,000 barrels per day from the week prior. Despite the weekly increase, the four-week average of 5.9 million barrels per day still lags 13.5% behind the same period last year.

Other key import figures:

• Motor gasoline imports averaged 747,000 barrels per day.

• Distillate fuel imports averaged 141,000 barrels per day.

Inventory Levels Continue to Climb

Commercial petroleum inventories grew across the board last week:

• Crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 1.3 million barrels, totaling 443.2 million barrels. This places current stockpiles about 6% below the five-year seasonal average.

• Motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels, now standing about 2% below the five-year average.

• Distillate fuel inventories rose by 0.6 million barrels, though they remain 16% below the seasonal norm.

• Propane/propylene inventories surged by 2.7 million barrels, but still sit 7% below average levels.

In total, commercial petroleum inventories rose by 4.9 million barrels.

Product Demand Trends

Despite the increases in production and inventory, product demand remains soft:

• Total products supplied averaged 19.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, a 2.8% decrease from the same period last year.

• Motor gasoline demand dipped by 1%, averaging 8.8 million barrels per day.

• Distillate fuel demand saw a sharper drop of 4.2%, averaging 3.6 million barrels per day.

• On a brighter note, jet fuel demand climbed 4% year-over-year.

Takeaway

The latest data points to a petroleum market that is stabilizing in supply but facing persistent demand headwinds. With refinery utilization high and inventories rising, the market may be well-positioned for summer travel season, but muted year-over-year product demand could temper price pressures in the near term.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the season progresses.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

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19 ticks potential profit in 17 seconds on 15 May 2025, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 17 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 15 May 2025.

Natural gas (19 ticks)

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U.S. Natural Gas Storage Sees Strong Build Amid Seasonal Demand Shifts

Published: May 16, 2025

The latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals a significant weekly injection into underground natural gas storage, marking an important trend as the industry transitions from the heating season toward summer cooling demand.

Key Highlights

• Total U.S. working gas in storage: 2,255 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

• Weekly change: +110 Bcf

• Compared to one year ago: 375 Bcf lower

• Compared to five-year average (2020–2024): 57 Bcf higher

This 110 Bcf net injection reflects robust storage activity, exceeding typical mid-May seasonal expectations. Despite being significantly below last year’s levels, total inventories are now 2.6% above the five-year average, providing some cushion ahead of the peak summer demand season.

What This Means for the Market

Natural gas prices may remain relatively stable or even soften in the short term due to this above-average injection and healthy storage buffer. However, the year-over-year deficit—particularly in major demand regions like the East and Midwest—could become a concern if summer heat drives stronger cooling-related demand or if supply disruptions occur.

The market will also be closely watching for shifts in LNG export volumes, production growth from shale regions, and any early-season heat waves, all of which could influence injection rates in the coming months.

A Closer Look at Historical Context

• Year-Ago Storage (May 9, 2024): 2,630 Bcf

• Five-Year Average: 2,198 Bcf

• Current Storage: 2,255 Bcf

Despite being well below last year’s unusually high levels, current stocks remain comfortably within the historical range, as noted in the EIA's shaded graph data.

Final Thoughts

As we progress further into the 2025 injection season, the pace of storage builds and demand pressures from the power generation sector will be critical indicators for summer gas market dynamics. This week’s data suggests solid fundamentals, but with a lingering note of caution due to year-over-year deficits.

Stay tuned for the next release on May 22, 2025, which will offer further insights into how the storage trend is shaping up ahead of the high-demand summer period.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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17 pips and US500 10 points potential profit in 248 seconds on 15 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and US500 on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 17 pips and US 500 moved 10 points on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI), US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data on 15 May 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

US500 (10 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Inflation Cools While Consumers Keep Spending: A Look at April 2025’s Economic Pulse

May 16, 2025 | By Economic Insights Blog Team

The economic landscape this spring reveals a nuanced picture: while inflation pressures at the production level are softening, consumer demand remains resilient. Let’s break down the key takeaways from the latest government data on producer prices, retail sales, unemployment claims, and manufacturing activity.

Producer Price Index (PPI): April Brings a Rare Drop

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.5% in April, a sharp contrast to March’s flat reading. This is the largest drop since October 2023.

• Services led the decline, dropping 0.7%, primarily due to falling trade margins — notably in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which saw a steep 6.1% fall.

• Final demand goods prices were flat overall. However:

  • Core goods (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4%.

  • Food prices dropped 1.0%, while energy prices dipped 0.4%.

  • Chicken eggs saw a dramatic 39.4% plunge.

12-month change: Final demand prices are still up 2.4% annually, suggesting inflation is moderating but not gone. Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade) rose 2.9% year-over-year.

Retail Sales: Consumers Show Modest Growth

The Census Bureau reports that retail and food services sales in April grew by 0.1%, following an upward revision to 1.7% growth in March. While modest, this marks 5.2% year-over-year growth — a sign that consumers are still opening their wallets.

• Retail trade edged down 0.1%, but:

  • Motor vehicle & parts dealers surged 9.4% over last year.

  • Food services and drinking places rose 7.8% year-over-year, showing strength in discretionary spending.

Unemployment Claims: Steady, but Slight Uptick in Trend

Unemployment insurance claims held steady:

• Initial claims: 229,000 (unchanged from prior week).

• 4-week moving average: 230,500 (slight rise).

• Insured unemployment rate: 1.2% — unchanged, signaling labor market stability.

Notably:

• Michigan saw a spike in initial claims (+6,869), mostly from manufacturing layoffs.

• New York saw a large drop (-15,228), thanks to fewer layoffs across education, transport, food services, and government.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: Weak But Hopeful

The Philadelphia Fed’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows that current activity remains weak, but optimism is rising:

• General activity index: Improved to -4.0 from -26.4, still negative but recovering.

• New orders jumped into positive territory at 7.5, while shipments dropped further to -13.0.

• Employment index rose significantly to 16.5, and workweek hours ticked up.

• Price pressures remain strong: Prices paid surged to 59.8, and prices received rose to 43.6 — both the highest since June 2022.

Future outlook? Brightening:

• Future general activity index spiked to 47.2, with new orders and shipments also showing strong expected growth.

• Businesses now expect 3.8% inflation for consumers and are preparing for higher compensation costs and competitive price increases in the near term.

What It All Means

The April data gives mixed but mostly encouraging signals:

• Disinflation is real at the producer level, particularly in services and food.

• Consumers are still spending, albeit more cautiously than earlier in the year.

• Labor markets are steady, even amid isolated layoffs.

• Manufacturers are hopeful, though current conditions remain sluggish.

Bottom Line: The U.S. economy in April 2025 is treading a fine line — inflation is cooling without crushing consumer demand or jobs. But manufacturers and retailers are watching input costs and pricing power carefully. The months ahead will test whether this delicate balance holds.

Next Key Releases to Watch:

• May PPI: June 12

• May Jobs Report: June 6

• FOMC Meeting: June 18–19

Stay tuned for deeper dives and analysis right here at Economic Insights.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm, https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/MBOS/2025/bos0525.pdf

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3 pips and US500 14 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 13 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and US500 on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 3 pips and US500 moved 14 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 May 2025.

USDJPY (3 pips)

US500 (14 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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April 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Slows, Shelter and Energy Drive Modest Gains

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2025, offering a mixed picture of inflation trends across the economy. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.2% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after a slight decline in March. Year-over-year, prices are up 2.3% before seasonal adjustment, marking the smallest annual increase since February 2021.

Key Highlights:

• Overall Inflation: +0.2% month-over-month in April; +2.3% year-over-year.

• Core Inflation (excluding food and energy): +0.2% in April; +2.8% over the past 12 months.

• Food Prices: Declined by 0.1% in April, driven by a sharp 0.4% drop in the food at home index.

• Energy Prices: Rose 0.7% in April but are still down 3.7% compared to a year ago.

Shelter Continues to Lead

The shelter index increased by 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the overall rise in CPI. On an annual basis, shelter costs have risen 4.0%, making it a significant contributor to persistent core inflation. Rents and owners' equivalent rent both increased 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in April.

Energy Prices Rebound Slightly

While energy prices rose in April, the rebound was modest. Natural gas saw a notable 3.7% increase, and electricity rose 0.8%. However, gasoline prices dipped slightly by 0.1% (though they rose 2.9% before seasonal adjustment). Over the last 12 months, gasoline prices have dropped 11.8%, and fuel oil is down 9.6%.

Food Prices Show Mixed Trends

Food at home prices dropped 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since September 2020. The sharpest decline was seen in eggs, down 12.7% in April. Most major grocery categories posted declines, while nonalcoholic beverages were up 0.7%. In contrast, the food away from home index rose 0.4%, driven by increases in full-service (+0.6%) and limited-service meals (+0.3%).

Over the past year, food prices have risen 2.8%, with food away from home up 3.9% and food at home up 2.0%. Notably, egg prices have surged 49.3% year-over-year despite the April drop.

Core Categories Show Mixed Movement

Beyond food and energy, prices for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0%, and motor vehicle insurance rose 0.6%. Medical care rose 0.5%, with increases in hospital services (+0.6%) and prescription drugs (+0.4%).

Some categories saw declines, including airline fares (-2.8%), used cars and trucks (-0.5%), communication, and apparel (-0.2%). New vehicle prices remained unchanged.

A Shift in Methodology

April 2025 also marked a methodological update for the CPI. The BLS has transitioned to using transaction data purchased from a vendor to calculate the leased cars and trucks index, aiming to improve accuracy.

Looking Ahead

The next CPI release, covering May 2025, is scheduled for Wednesday, June 11, 2025. It will offer further insights into whether inflation continues to moderate and how evolving economic conditions impact consumer prices.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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