According to our analysis there was a potential of 57 pips, US500 6 points and BTC 678 points profit out of the following 2 events in December 2025. The potential performance in 2025 was 1,828 pips / ticks.
December 2025
FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections (45 pips / 10 December 2025)
US CPI and US Jobless Claims (12 pips, US500 6 points, BTC 678 points / 18 December 2025)
Total trading time would have been around 2 minutes! (preparation time not included)
You can click on each release for detailed information.
Markets React to December 2025 Macro Shocks: CPI, Jobless Claims & the FOMC Rate Cut
December 2025 delivered two major clusters of U.S. macroeconomic data—each triggering sharp but short-lived volatility across FX, index futures, and crypto. Between the FOMC interest rate decision on December 10 and the CPI + Jobless Claims release on December 18, traders saw multiple high-impact opportunities in EURUSD, USDJPY, US500, and BTC.
Below is a consolidated performance recap and a deeper macro interpretation of what these releases signal for 2026.
1. Market Reaction: How Much Did Markets Move?
10 December 2025 – FOMC Decision & Projections
USDJPY: 26 pips
EURUSD: 19 pips
Total: 45 pips potential in 48 seconds
YTD (2025) potential: 1816 pips (vs 4305 in 2024)
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75%, igniting brief but actionable volatility across major FX pairs.
18 December 2025 – CPI + Jobless Claims
EURUSD: 12 pips
US500: 6 points
BTC: 678 points
Total: 12 pips + 6 points + 678 points in 43 seconds
2025 YTD potential: 1828 pips
Crypto was the standout mover, with BTC reacting aggressively to the disinflationary tone and labor-market stability.
2. What the Data Actually Says: A Macro Deep Dive
A. Labor Market – Still Tight, Still Resilient
Initial claims:
224k, down 13k from the previous week
4-week average stable at 217.5k
These levels signal continued expansion, not recession. Historically, recessions show up closer to 300k+ claims.
Insured unemployment (SA):
1.897M, within the 2025 range of 1.83–1.95M
IUR flat at 1.2%
No state has triggered Extended Benefits, a strong sign that labor weakness isn’t systemic.
Sectoral patterns
States with the highest insured unemployment—CA, WA, NJ, MA—mirror exposure to:
Tech & high-wage services
Construction slowdowns
Logistics & manufacturing adjustments
This is late-cycle choppiness, not broad deterioration.
B. Inflation – Controlled Disinflation Toward 2–3%
Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY
Core CPI: +2.6% YoY
From September to November:
Headline: +0.2% total
Core: +0.2% total
Shelter: +0.2% total
Annualized, that’s roughly 1–2% inflation—a notable downshift.
Food inflation
Food at home: +1.9%
Restaurant prices: +3.7% to +4.3%
Services—especially restaurants—remain sticky.
Energy
Biggest contributors:
Fuel oil: +11.3%
Electricity: +6.9%
Utility gas: +9.1%
Household energy remains a political and consumer pain point.
Core components
Shelter: +3.0%
Services ex-energy: +3.0%
Used cars: +3.6%
Furnishings: +4.6%
Inflation is now services-driven, not goods-driven.
3. The December 10 FOMC Rate Cut: What It Really Means
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, despite inflation being “somewhat elevated.”
Why cut now?
Because downside risks to employment have increased—and for the first time, the Fed said so explicitly.
Fed projections to 2028
GDP growth:
2025: 1.7%
2026: 2.3%
Longer run: 1.8%
Unemployment:
Drifting toward 4.2–4.5%, near the Fed’s long-run estimate.
Inflation:
PCE 2025: 2.9%
Back to 2% by 2028
Rate path (median “dots”):
2025: 3.6%
2026: 3.4%
Long run: 3.0%
This is not a return to zero rates.
It’s easing within a structurally higher-rate environment.
4. Internal FOMC Divisions Make This a Turning Point
Three dissents highlight the Committee’s tension:
Miran: Wanted a 50 bp cut
Goolsbee & Schmid: Wanted no cut at all
This split implies:
Data signals are mixed
The Fed’s margin for error is narrow
Future moves may become more unpredictable
5. Policy Outlook for 2026: “Cautious Cuts, Persistent Uncertainty”
Monetary Policy
The Fed can stay on hold while watching inflation drift lower.
More cuts are possible—but only if unemployment rises faster than forecast.
Fiscal/Labor Policy
No broad-based unemployment crisis
Sector-specific retraining and support may be more effective than large UI expansions
Political economy
Utilities and shelter inflation continue pressuring lower-income households
Shutdown-related data gaps raise concerns about federal data quality
6. What Traders Should Take Away (Not Financial Advice)
Short-term
Macro releases remain high-volatility catalysts
Rate-sensitive FX pairs (USDJPY, EURUSD) still react strongly to policy guidance
BTC’s outsized reaction suggests macro-sensitive speculative flows remain dominant
Medium-term
A soft-landing scenario is still on the table
But risks are tilted both toward stickier inflation and softer labor conditions—an unusual mix
Long-term
The Fed’s neutral rate near 3% signals structurally higher yields for years to come
This environment benefits systematic traders and machine-readable news strategies that rely on precision and speed
Final Thoughts
December’s data confirms a narrative of orderly disinflation, resilient labor markets, and a Fed cautiously easing while watching both sides of its mandate.
For traders, volatility around macro releases remains high—even when trend macro signals appear stable. High-speed execution and machine-readable data continue to offer a tactical edge in capturing these short, sharp moves.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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