According to our analysis USDJPY moved 3 pips and US500 moved 14 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 May 2025.
USDJPY (3 pips)
US500 (14 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
April 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Slows, Shelter and Energy Drive Modest Gains
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2025, offering a mixed picture of inflation trends across the economy. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.2% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after a slight decline in March. Year-over-year, prices are up 2.3% before seasonal adjustment, marking the smallest annual increase since February 2021.
Key Highlights:
Overall Inflation: +0.2% month-over-month in April; +2.3% year-over-year.
Core Inflation (excluding food and energy): +0.2% in April; +2.8% over the past 12 months.
Food Prices: Declined by 0.1% in April, driven by a sharp 0.4% drop in the food at home index.
Energy Prices: Rose 0.7% in April but are still down 3.7% compared to a year ago.
Shelter Continues to Lead
The shelter index increased by 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the overall rise in CPI. On an annual basis, shelter costs have risen 4.0%, making it a significant contributor to persistent core inflation. Rents and owners' equivalent rent both increased 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in April.
Energy Prices Rebound Slightly
While energy prices rose in April, the rebound was modest. Natural gas saw a notable 3.7% increase, and electricity rose 0.8%. However, gasoline prices dipped slightly by 0.1% (though they rose 2.9% before seasonal adjustment). Over the last 12 months, gasoline prices have dropped 11.8%, and fuel oil is down 9.6%.
Food Prices Show Mixed Trends
Food at home prices dropped 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since September 2020. The sharpest decline was seen in eggs, down 12.7% in April. Most major grocery categories posted declines, while nonalcoholic beverages were up 0.7%. In contrast, the food away from home index rose 0.4%, driven by increases in full-service (+0.6%) and limited-service meals (+0.3%).
Over the past year, food prices have risen 2.8%, with food away from home up 3.9% and food at home up 2.0%. Notably, egg prices have surged 49.3% year-over-year despite the April drop.
Core Categories Show Mixed Movement
Beyond food and energy, prices for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0%, and motor vehicle insurance rose 0.6%. Medical care rose 0.5%, with increases in hospital services (+0.6%) and prescription drugs (+0.4%).
Some categories saw declines, including airline fares (-2.8%), used cars and trucks (-0.5%), communication, and apparel (-0.2%). New vehicle prices remained unchanged.
A Shift in Methodology
April 2025 also marked a methodological update for the CPI. The BLS has transitioned to using transaction data purchased from a vendor to calculate the leased cars and trucks index, aiming to improve accuracy.
Looking Ahead
The next CPI release, covering May 2025, is scheduled for Wednesday, June 11, 2025. It will offer further insights into whether inflation continues to moderate and how evolving economic conditions impact consumer prices.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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