According to our analysis there was a potential of 148 pips, US500 21 points and BTC 305 points profit out of the following 7 event in April 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

April 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance April 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)

April 2025 Macro Wrap-Up: Labor, Energy, and GDP Trends Shape Market Sentiment

As April 2025 closes, a clearer picture emerges of a U.S. economy navigating multiple crosscurrents—from labor market softening to evolving energy dynamics and a mild GDP contraction. Here's a factual roundup of key economic reports that moved markets and influenced investor sentiment this month.

JOLTS Report (February 2025 Data)

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February showed that the U.S. labor market continues to gradually cool:

  • Job Openings: 7.6 million (down 194,000 from January, down 877,000 YoY)

  • Hires: 5.4 million (unchanged)

  • Quits: 3.2 million (unchanged MoM, but down 273,000 YoY)

  • Layoffs & Discharges: 1.8 million (flat)

Key Sectoral Trends:

  • Retail layoffs: +67,000

  • Real Estate layoffs: +24,000

  • Federal Government layoffs: +18,000

  • Transportation/Warehousing: -42,000 layoffs (a positive shift)

Market Implications:
The persistent decline in job openings and stable (but low) quits rate support a view that wage pressures are easing—reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may tilt dovish in the second half of 2025. Retail and real estate sector weakness may pressure consumer and housing-related equities, while strength in transportation hints at selective industrial resilience.

Natural Gas Market Trends (March–April 2025)

March 28 Storage Report:

  • Weekly build: +29 Bcf

  • Total inventory: 1,773 Bcf

  • Still 491 Bcf below year-ago levels

April 16 Update:

  • Henry Hub Spot: $3.21/MMBtu → $3.247/MMBtu

  • Supply held steady, demand fell 6.9%

  • LNG exports remained high at 129 Bcf across 34 vessels

  • Storage injection: +16 Bcf (well below 5-year average of 50 Bcf)

April 23 Update:

  • Spot price: $2.93/MMBtu (down $0.28 WoW)

  • Storage: +88 Bcf injection

  • Working stocks: 1,934 Bcf (2% below 5-year avg)

Regional Volatility:

  • Waha Hub: -$1.33/MMBtu

  • Houston Ship Channel: +$0.11/MMBtu

  • Algonquin Citygate: -$0.68/MMBtu

Takeaway:
Warm weather and weak residential demand have driven prices lower, despite modest production growth and high LNG exports. Storage levels remain below average, but recent builds indicate easing supply concerns.

Petroleum Status Reports – April 2025

Week Ending April 4:

  • Refinery utilization: 86.7%

  • Gasoline production: 8.9M bpd

  • Crude inventories: +2.6M barrels

  • Distillate inventories: -3.5M barrels

  • Gasoline inventories: -1.6M barrels

Week Ending April 18:

  • Refinery utilization: 88.1%

  • Gasoline production: 10.1M bpd

  • Gasoline inventories: -4.5M barrels (3% below average)

  • Distillate inventories: -2.4M barrels (13% below average)

  • Propane: +2.3M barrels

Retail Prices:

  • Gasoline: $3.141/gallon (down $0.527 YoY)

  • Diesel: $3.534/gallon (down $0.458 YoY)

Key Themes:
Rising refinery utilization suggests preparation for the summer driving season. Distillate and jet fuel demand are notably strong, while gasoline inventory declines point to tightness that could intensify if demand spikes.

Q1 2025 GDP: A Mild Contraction Amid Rising Imports

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

  • Real GDP: -0.3% (Q/Q annualized)

  • Previous quarter: +2.4%

Drivers of Contraction:

  • Imports: Rose sharply (especially in pharmaceuticals, electronics)

  • Government spending: Fell, led by federal defense cuts

  • Exports: Increased but not enough to offset imports

Strength Areas:

  • Consumer spending: Led by services and nondurables

  • Private investment: Boosted by wholesale inventory buildup

Inflation Measures:

  • PCE Index: +3.6%

  • Core PCE: +3.5%

  • Gross domestic purchases index: +3.4%

Private Demand Indicator:

  • Real final sales to private domestic purchasers: +3.0%

Wildfire Impacts:
$34B in private asset damage and $11B in public infrastructure loss from January wildfires in Southern California—not included in GDP directly but significant in broader economic context.

Conclusion: What's Next?

The data paints a mixed but informative picture:

  • The labor market is softening, which may open the door for policy easing.

  • Energy markets are navigating seasonal shifts with mixed supply/demand signals.

  • The GDP miss, though modest, raises concerns over trade imbalances and fiscal drag.

  • Inflation remains sticky—likely to remain a central factor in Fed decision-making.

With the next JOLTS report and further inflation data due ahead of the FOMC’s mid-year meetings, market participants will be watching closely for confirmation—or contradiction—of these emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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