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10 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 3 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 10 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on 3 June 2025.

USDJPY (6 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Job Market Holds Steady in April 2025, Says BLS Report

The U.S. job market showed little movement in April 2025, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job openings remained steady at 7.4 million, while hires and separations also showed minimal changes, suggesting a stable yet cautiously progressing labor environment.

Key Highlights from the April 2025 JOLTS Report:

  • Job Openings:
    The number of job openings stood at 7.4 million, with an unchanged rate of 4.4%. Notable industry shifts included:

    • Decrease in Accommodation and Food Services (–135,000)

    • Decrease in State and Local Government, Education (–51,000)

    • Increase in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (+43,000)

    • Slight uptick in Mining and Logging (+10,000)

  • Hires:
    Total hires remained relatively flat at 5.6 million, with a 3.5% hire rate. No significant changes were recorded across major industries.

  • Separations:
    Overall separations totaled 5.3 million with a rate of 3.3%, showing no major month-over-month movement. Breakdown includes:

    • Quits: Held steady at 3.2 million (2.0% rate), though down 220,000 year-over-year.

    • Layoffs and Discharges: Steady at 1.8 million (1.1% rate). Notable changes:

      • Increase in Health Care and Social Assistance (+52,000)

      • Decrease in State and Local Government (excl. education) (–14,000)

      • Decrease in Federal Government (–4,000)

    • Other Separations: Flat at 308,000

By Establishment Size:

Both very small (1–9 employees) and very large (5,000+ employees) establishments reported little or no change across all labor movement categories.

Revisions for March 2025:

  • Job openings were revised up by 8,000 to 7.2 million

  • Hires were revised down by 7,000 to 5.4 million

  • Total separations were revised up by 46,000 to 5.2 million

    • Quits revised up by 12,000

    • Layoffs and Discharges revised up by 32,000

What This Means:

The April 2025 data suggests a labor market that’s holding steady but not showing strong momentum in either direction. Employers appear cautious, with few significant increases in hiring or layoffs, while worker confidence—measured by the quits rate—remains solid but slightly lower compared to last year.

As we look ahead to the next JOLTS update, scheduled for July 1, 2025, employers, job seekers, and policymakers alike will continue watching for signals of acceleration or slowdown in the broader U.S. economy.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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28 pips potential profit in 18 seconds on 29 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 29 May 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (11 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise to Highest Level Since 2021

Posted on: May 29, 2025

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) report from the U.S. Department of Labor reveals a notable uptick in jobless claims, signaling potential shifts in the U.S. labor market. For the week ending May 24, 2025, initial claims for seasonally adjusted unemployment benefits rose to 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 226,000. This marks the highest level of insured unemployment since November 2021.

Initial Claims at a Glance

Initial claims are often seen as a leading indicator of labor market health. The four-week moving average—a more stable measure—dropped slightly by 250 to 230,750, showing continued volatility but no dramatic trend yet.

Unadjusted data also reflected a jump: 212,506 actual claims were filed, up 10,742 (or 5.3%) from the previous week. This was in contrast to expectations of a modest decline, suggesting labor market softening in some states.

Rising Insured Unemployment

The insured unemployment rate, representing continued claims as a percentage of the covered workforce, climbed to 1.3%—up from 1.2% the week before. The total number of people receiving UI benefits rose to 1,919,000, up 26,000 from the prior week. This is the highest level of insured unemployment in over three years.

The four-week average for insured unemployment now stands at 1,890,250, the highest since November 2021. While not alarming in isolation, this metric tends to signal pressure points in the labor market when it trends upward.

Which States Are Leading the Changes?

Some states experienced sharper changes than others:

Increases in initial claims:

  • Illinois (+1,162): Attributed to layoffs in manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail.

  • Missouri (+447) and Louisiana (+383) also saw jumps.

Decreases in claims:

  • Virginia (-1,277) and Michigan (-1,192): Reported fewer layoffs, particularly in manufacturing.

Highest insured unemployment rates:

  • New Jersey (2.2%)

  • California and Washington (2.1%)

  • Rhode Island (1.9%)

  • District of Columbia and Massachusetts (1.8%)

Federal and Veteran Claims

Federal claims also rose slightly:

  • Federal civilian employees: 610 initial claims (+15)

  • Newly discharged veterans: 374 initial claims (+4)

Continued claims for these groups totaled:

  • 6,378 (federal employees)

  • 4,569 (veterans)

Total Benefits Claimed

Across all UI programs, 1,808,372 continued claims were filed for the week ending May 10, up by 492 from the prior week. This includes regular state benefits, federal programs, and special extensions.

Bottom Line: What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?

While the overall UI claims data remain within historical norms, the trend over recent weeks—particularly the rise in insured unemployment—warrants attention. Increases in claims across key sectors like manufacturing and retail may reflect broader economic cooling or transitional churn in employment.

Labor market watchers and policymakers will be closely monitoring next week’s data to determine whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of sustained labor market softening.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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42 ticks potential profit in 87 seconds on 21 May 2025, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 42 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report data on 21 May 2025.

Light sweet crude oil (42 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Weekly Petroleum Update: Refinery Activity Rises, Inventories Continue to Build

Published: May 21, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum data, covering the week ending May 16, 2025, reveals a modest uptick in refinery operations and a continued rise in inventories across several fuel categories, even as product demand shows year-over-year declines.

Refinery Inputs and Production

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day, an increase of 89,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Refineries operated at 90.7% capacity, maintaining a strong operational pace heading into the summer driving season.

Fuel production also saw gains:

  • Gasoline production rose to an average of 9.6 million barrels per day.

  • Distillate fuel production increased significantly, up 131,000 barrels per day to an average of 4.7 million barrels per day.

Imports on the Rise

Crude oil imports increased notably, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day, up 247,000 barrels per day from the week prior. Despite the weekly increase, the four-week average of 5.9 million barrels per day still lags 13.5% behind the same period last year.

Other key import figures:

  • Motor gasoline imports averaged 747,000 barrels per day.

  • Distillate fuel imports averaged 141,000 barrels per day.

Inventory Levels Continue to Climb

Commercial petroleum inventories grew across the board last week:

  • Crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 1.3 million barrels, totaling 443.2 million barrels. This places current stockpiles about 6% below the five-year seasonal average.

  • Motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels, now standing about 2% below the five-year average.

  • Distillate fuel inventories rose by 0.6 million barrels, though they remain 16% below the seasonal norm.

  • Propane/propylene inventories surged by 2.7 million barrels, but still sit 7% below average levels.

In total, commercial petroleum inventories rose by 4.9 million barrels.

Product Demand Trends

Despite the increases in production and inventory, product demand remains soft:

  • Total products supplied averaged 19.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, a 2.8% decrease from the same period last year.

  • Motor gasoline demand dipped by 1%, averaging 8.8 million barrels per day.

  • Distillate fuel demand saw a sharper drop of 4.2%, averaging 3.6 million barrels per day.

  • On a brighter note, jet fuel demand climbed 4% year-over-year.

Takeaway

The latest data points to a petroleum market that is stabilizing in supply but facing persistent demand headwinds. With refinery utilization high and inventories rising, the market may be well-positioned for summer travel season, but muted year-over-year product demand could temper price pressures in the near term.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the season progresses.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

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19 ticks potential profit in 17 seconds on 15 May 2025, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 17 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 15 May 2025.

Natural gas (19 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Sees Strong Build Amid Seasonal Demand Shifts

Published: May 16, 2025

The latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals a significant weekly injection into underground natural gas storage, marking an important trend as the industry transitions from the heating season toward summer cooling demand.

Key Highlights

  • Total U.S. working gas in storage: 2,255 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

  • Weekly change: +110 Bcf

  • Compared to one year ago: 375 Bcf lower

  • Compared to five-year average (2020–2024): 57 Bcf higher

This 110 Bcf net injection reflects robust storage activity, exceeding typical mid-May seasonal expectations. Despite being significantly below last year’s levels, total inventories are now 2.6% above the five-year average, providing some cushion ahead of the peak summer demand season.

What This Means for the Market

Natural gas prices may remain relatively stable or even soften in the short term due to this above-average injection and healthy storage buffer. However, the year-over-year deficit—particularly in major demand regions like the East and Midwest—could become a concern if summer heat drives stronger cooling-related demand or if supply disruptions occur.

The market will also be closely watching for shifts in LNG export volumes, production growth from shale regions, and any early-season heat waves, all of which could influence injection rates in the coming months.

A Closer Look at Historical Context

  • Year-Ago Storage (May 9, 2024): 2,630 Bcf

  • Five-Year Average: 2,198 Bcf

  • Current Storage: 2,255 Bcf

Despite being well below last year’s unusually high levels, current stocks remain comfortably within the historical range, as noted in the EIA's shaded graph data.

Final Thoughts

As we progress further into the 2025 injection season, the pace of storage builds and demand pressures from the power generation sector will be critical indicators for summer gas market dynamics. This week’s data suggests solid fundamentals, but with a lingering note of caution due to year-over-year deficits.

Stay tuned for the next release on May 22, 2025, which will offer further insights into how the storage trend is shaping up ahead of the high-demand summer period.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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17 pips and US500 10 points potential profit in 248 seconds on 15 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and US500 on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 17 pips and US 500 moved 10 points on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI), US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data on 15 May 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

US500 (10 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Inflation Cools While Consumers Keep Spending: A Look at April 2025’s Economic Pulse

May 16, 2025 | By Economic Insights Blog Team

The economic landscape this spring reveals a nuanced picture: while inflation pressures at the production level are softening, consumer demand remains resilient. Let’s break down the key takeaways from the latest government data on producer prices, retail sales, unemployment claims, and manufacturing activity.

Producer Price Index (PPI): April Brings a Rare Drop

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.5% in April, a sharp contrast to March’s flat reading. This is the largest drop since October 2023.

  • Services led the decline, dropping 0.7%, primarily due to falling trade margins — notably in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which saw a steep 6.1% fall.

  • Final demand goods prices were flat overall. However:

    • Core goods (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4%.

    • Food prices dropped 1.0%, while energy prices dipped 0.4%.

    • Chicken eggs saw a dramatic 39.4% plunge.

12-month change: Final demand prices are still up 2.4% annually, suggesting inflation is moderating but not gone. Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade) rose 2.9% year-over-year.

Retail Sales: Consumers Show Modest Growth

The Census Bureau reports that retail and food services sales in April grew by 0.1%, following an upward revision to 1.7% growth in March. While modest, this marks 5.2% year-over-year growth — a sign that consumers are still opening their wallets.

  • Retail trade edged down 0.1%, but:

    • Motor vehicle & parts dealers surged 9.4% over last year.

    • Food services and drinking places rose 7.8% year-over-year, showing strength in discretionary spending.

Unemployment Claims: Steady, but Slight Uptick in Trend

Unemployment insurance claims held steady:

  • Initial claims: 229,000 (unchanged from prior week).

  • 4-week moving average: 230,500 (slight rise).

  • Insured unemployment rate: 1.2% — unchanged, signaling labor market stability.

Notably:

  • Michigan saw a spike in initial claims (+6,869), mostly from manufacturing layoffs.

  • New York saw a large drop (-15,228), thanks to fewer layoffs across education, transport, food services, and government.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: Weak But Hopeful

The Philadelphia Fed’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows that current activity remains weak, but optimism is rising:

  • General activity index: Improved to -4.0 from -26.4, still negative but recovering.

  • New orders jumped into positive territory at 7.5, while shipments dropped further to -13.0.

  • Employment index rose significantly to 16.5, and workweek hours ticked up.

  • Price pressures remain strong: Prices paid surged to 59.8, and prices received rose to 43.6 — both the highest since June 2022.

Future outlook? Brightening:

  • Future general activity index spiked to 47.2, with new orders and shipments also showing strong expected growth.

  • Businesses now expect 3.8% inflation for consumers and are preparing for higher compensation costs and competitive price increases in the near term.

What It All Means

The April data gives mixed but mostly encouraging signals:

  • Disinflation is real at the producer level, particularly in services and food.

  • Consumers are still spending, albeit more cautiously than earlier in the year.

  • Labor markets are steady, even amid isolated layoffs.

  • Manufacturers are hopeful, though current conditions remain sluggish.

Bottom Line: The U.S. economy in April 2025 is treading a fine line — inflation is cooling without crushing consumer demand or jobs. But manufacturers and retailers are watching input costs and pricing power carefully. The months ahead will test whether this delicate balance holds.

Next Key Releases to Watch:

  • May PPI: June 12

  • May Jobs Report: June 6

  • FOMC Meeting: June 18–19

Stay tuned for deeper dives and analysis right here at Economic Insights.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm, https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/MBOS/2025/bos0525.pdf

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3 pips and US500 14 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 13 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and US500 on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 3 pips and US500 moved 14 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 May 2025.

USDJPY (3 pips)

US500 (14 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

April 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Slows, Shelter and Energy Drive Modest Gains

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2025, offering a mixed picture of inflation trends across the economy. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.2% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after a slight decline in March. Year-over-year, prices are up 2.3% before seasonal adjustment, marking the smallest annual increase since February 2021.

Key Highlights:

  • Overall Inflation: +0.2% month-over-month in April; +2.3% year-over-year.

  • Core Inflation (excluding food and energy): +0.2% in April; +2.8% over the past 12 months.

  • Food Prices: Declined by 0.1% in April, driven by a sharp 0.4% drop in the food at home index.

  • Energy Prices: Rose 0.7% in April but are still down 3.7% compared to a year ago.

Shelter Continues to Lead

The shelter index increased by 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the overall rise in CPI. On an annual basis, shelter costs have risen 4.0%, making it a significant contributor to persistent core inflation. Rents and owners' equivalent rent both increased 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in April.

Energy Prices Rebound Slightly

While energy prices rose in April, the rebound was modest. Natural gas saw a notable 3.7% increase, and electricity rose 0.8%. However, gasoline prices dipped slightly by 0.1% (though they rose 2.9% before seasonal adjustment). Over the last 12 months, gasoline prices have dropped 11.8%, and fuel oil is down 9.6%.

Food Prices Show Mixed Trends

Food at home prices dropped 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since September 2020. The sharpest decline was seen in eggs, down 12.7% in April. Most major grocery categories posted declines, while nonalcoholic beverages were up 0.7%. In contrast, the food away from home index rose 0.4%, driven by increases in full-service (+0.6%) and limited-service meals (+0.3%).

Over the past year, food prices have risen 2.8%, with food away from home up 3.9% and food at home up 2.0%. Notably, egg prices have surged 49.3% year-over-year despite the April drop.

Core Categories Show Mixed Movement

Beyond food and energy, prices for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0%, and motor vehicle insurance rose 0.6%. Medical care rose 0.5%, with increases in hospital services (+0.6%) and prescription drugs (+0.4%).

Some categories saw declines, including airline fares (-2.8%), used cars and trucks (-0.5%), communication, and apparel (-0.2%). New vehicle prices remained unchanged.

A Shift in Methodology

April 2025 also marked a methodological update for the CPI. The BLS has transitioned to using transaction data purchased from a vendor to calculate the leased cars and trucks index, aiming to improve accuracy.

Looking Ahead

The next CPI release, covering May 2025, is scheduled for Wednesday, June 11, 2025. It will offer further insights into whether inflation continues to moderate and how evolving economic conditions impact consumer prices.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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9 pips and US500 3 points potential profit in 133 seconds on 8 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and US500 on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 9 pips and US500 moved 3 points on US Jobless Claims data on 8 May 2025.

USDJPY (9 pips)

US500 (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop as Labor Market Remains Resilient

Published: May 8, 2025

The U.S. labor market showed signs of stability this week as initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims decreased, according to the latest data released by the Department of Labor. For the week ending May 3, seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 228,000, down by 13,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 241,000.

Key Takeaways:

  • Initial claims (seasonally adjusted): 228,000 (↓13,000 from prior week)

  • 4-week moving average: 227,000 (↑1,000 from previous week)

  • Insured unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted): 1.2% (↓0.1%)

  • Insured unemployment level: 1,879,000 (↓29,000 from the prior week)

Despite a small uptick in the four-week moving average for initial claims, the overall decline in weekly claims suggests that layoffs remain relatively contained.

Unadjusted Numbers Highlight Broader Declines

Unadjusted data showed an even more pronounced drop. The number of actual initial claims under state programs fell to 206,937, a decline of 16,972 claims, or 7.6%, from the previous week. This was notably more than the expected seasonal decrease of just 4,584 claims.

When compared to the same period last year, initial claims are slightly below the 210,050 reported in early May 2024, indicating that the labor market remains historically tight.

Continued Claims Edge Lower

Continued claims, which reflect the number of people receiving ongoing benefits, also saw a decrease. For the week ending April 26:

  • Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment fell to 1,879,000 (↓29,000).

  • The four-week moving average rose slightly to 1,874,500.

  • The unadjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%.

State-Level Insights

Some states saw significant changes in initial claims:

  • Increases:

    • New York: +15,418 (layoffs in transportation, accommodation, food services, education, and public administration)

    • Massachusetts: +3,301 (education sector)

    • Georgia: +1,207

    • Puerto Rico: +1,012

  • Decreases:

    • Connecticut: -2,340

    • Rhode Island: -1,850

    • Missouri: -1,696

    • Michigan: -1,436

The largest insured unemployment rates were seen in New Jersey and Rhode Island (2.5%), followed by California (2.3%) and Washington (2.1%).

Federal Program Activity

Federal unemployment programs remained largely unchanged. Claims filed by former federal civilian employees totaled 468, while newly discharged veterans filed 339 initial claims. Continued weeks claimed by both groups showed minimal movement.

Conclusion

This week’s decline in initial and continued claims underscores the resilience of the U.S. labor market, even amid sector-specific layoffs. While certain states and industries are experiencing localized job losses, overall jobless claim levels remain consistent with a healthy employment environment.

As economic uncertainties persist, analysts will be watching these weekly claims numbers closely for early signs of a broader labor market shift.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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329 pips, US30 771 points and BTC 3908 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 11 events in the first quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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329 pips, US30 771 points and BTC 3908 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 11 events in the first quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 329 pips/ticks, US30 771 points and BTC 3908 points profit out of the following 11 events in the first quarter of 2025 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q1 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q1 2025 (only pips), please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 19 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

Q1 2025 Market Wrap-Up: Key U.S. Economic Releases and Market Reactions

The first quarter of 2025 delivered a series of impactful U.S. economic data releases, with notable volatility across major markets including forex (USD), equities (US30), and crypto (BTC). Here's a concise breakdown of the most market-moving events:

  • Job Market Data:

    • Initial Jobless Claims on January 2 moved the USD by 28 pips, kicking off the year with a moderate reaction.

    • JOLTS Reports on January 7 and February 4 showed declining market impact, with moves shrinking from 25 pips to 15 pips, and a modest US30 reaction of 26 points in February.

    • The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on January 10 had the biggest labor market impact, sparking a 35-pip USD move and a 210-point surge in the US30.

  • Inflation Data (CPI):

    • January 15 CPI data drove 25 pips, 90 points on the US30, and a notable 1018-point jump in BTC.

    • February 12 CPI repeated this market-moving trend with 23 pips, 147 US30 points, and a 1279-point BTC reaction, reinforcing inflation as a key driver for crypto and equity traders alike.

  • Consumer Sentiment:

    • The University of Michigan reports on February 7 and March 14 showed consistent market engagement. BTC and US30 responded significantly, with the March release pushing the US30 up 154 points and BTC up 592 points.

  • Agricultural and Commodity Reports:

    • The USDA WASDE and Grain Stocks release on January 10 triggered a massive 104-tick move, while the February 11 WASDE still saw solid market action at 40 ticks.

  • Retail Sales:

    • The February 14 report had a moderate impact, generating a 20-pip USD move and 280 points on BTC, suggesting strong trader attention to consumer spending data.

Overall, inflation and employment reports remained the dominant themes in Q1, with crypto markets—particularly BTC—reacting sharply to CPI data and sentiment indexes. Equities also showed sensitivity, especially to job and inflation metrics, while agricultural markets responded decisively to USDA data.

Here's a chart summarizing the market reactions across USD, US30, BTC, and commodity markets for key U.S. economic releases in Q1 2025.


Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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19 pips, US500 19 points and BTC 192 points potential profit in 92 seconds on 2 May 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, US500 and BTC on US Employment Situation (NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY, US500 and BTC moved 19 pips, 19 points and 192 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 2 May 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

US500 (19 points)

BTC (192 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

April 2025 Jobs Report: Steady Growth with a Few Soft Spots

The U.S. labor market continued its slow but steady climb in April 2025, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000, a solid gain that’s slightly above the average monthly increase of 152,000 over the past year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, continuing a nearly year-long trend of relative stability in joblessness.

Key Takeaways:

Job Growth Driven by Health Care and Transportation

  • Health care led the way with 51,000 new jobs, continuing its strong performance from previous months. Hospitals and ambulatory health care services were major contributors.

  • Transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, with gains in warehousing and storage (+10,000), couriers and messengers (+8,000), and air transportation (+3,000).

Other Industries on the Rise

  • Financial activities added 14,000 jobs, bringing total gains since April 2024 to over 100,000.

  • Social assistance employment rose by 8,000, though at a slower pace than usual.

Federal Government Job Cuts

  • Federal employment fell by 9,000 jobs in April and is down 26,000 since January. This marks a continued contraction in the public sector.

Other Notable Stats:

  • The number of unemployed people remained at 7.2 million.

  • Long-term unemployment rose to 1.7 million, making up 23.5% of all unemployed persons.

  • The labor force participation rate stayed flat at 62.6%, and the employment-population ratio held at 60.0%.

  • Wages continue to grow modestly:

    • Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents to $36.06, up 3.8% year-over-year.

    • Nonsupervisory workers saw a 10-cent gain to $31.06.

Revisions & Trends

The jobs numbers from February and March were revised down by a total of 58,000 jobs, tempering earlier optimism. While these revisions don't indicate a major downturn, they reflect the continued balancing act of a cooling economy with pockets of resilience.

Bottom Line:

April’s jobs report reflects a labor market that’s stable, but not booming. Most of the gains are concentrated in a few key sectors, while other areas — including government — are shedding jobs. Wage growth is modest, and the overall unemployment rate remains within a narrow range.

With the next employment report due June 6, attention will remain focused on whether this steady trajectory can be maintained amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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55 ticks potential profit in 42 seconds on 1 May 2025, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 55 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 1 May 2025.

Natural gas (55 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Natural Gas Storage Inches Upward as Spring Builds Continue

May 2, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report on May 1, 2025, revealing a notable build in underground natural gas stocks as the country transitions deeper into spring. For the week ending April 25, 2025, working gas in storage across the Lower 48 states rose by 107 billion cubic feet (Bcf), bringing total inventories to 2,041 Bcf.

This increase keeps gas storage slightly ahead of the five-year average of 2,036 Bcf and narrows the year-on-year deficit, although stocks still trail last year's levels by 435 Bcf, a decline of 17.6%.

Regional Storage Trends

Breaking it down by region:

  • East: Added 36 Bcf, reaching 331 Bcf—down 21.7% from last year.

  • Midwest: Increased by 29 Bcf to 425 Bcf, 24.4% lower than a year ago.

  • Mountain: Saw a modest build of 3 Bcf to 174 Bcf, only 3.9% off from 2024 levels.

  • Pacific: Added 5 Bcf to hit 226 Bcf, down 5.4% from last year but still 19.6% above the five-year average.

  • South Central: Gained 34 Bcf to reach 885 Bcf, with the Salt component up 15 Bcf and Nonsalt up 20 Bcf.

Despite the year-over-year deficit, this week's build puts national storage comfortably within the five-year historical range—an encouraging sign for market stability heading into the summer months.

A Closer Look at Variability

The EIA also provided sampling variability estimates. The total coefficient of variation for stocks was just 0.4%, suggesting high reliability in this week's numbers. Standard error for the net change was only ±1.0 Bcf, reinforcing confidence in the reported 107 Bcf injection.

Outlook

With injection season ramping up, attention turns to weather forecasts, LNG export trends, and domestic demand as key drivers of storage trajectories in the weeks ahead. If moderate builds like this week’s continue, the market could see a more balanced setup heading into the heating season later this year, despite the current shortfall relative to 2024.

Stay tuned for the next report on May 8, 2025, for updates on how U.S. storage levels are evolving.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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