HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

HAAWKS is introducing seven new machine-readable CES benchmark revision data points as research shows U.S. payroll benchmark revisions have become materially larger in recent years.

HAAWKS Research

New G4A Data Points

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: Why Payroll Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

Ahead of the August 28, 2026 preliminary CES benchmark release, HAAWKS is expanding its low-latency machine-readable U.S. labor-market coverage with seven new benchmark-revision data points.

August 2026 • 7 new machine-readable data points • CES Benchmark Revisions

HAAWKS G4A will introduce machine-readable coverage of the Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark Revision and the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, giving professional news traders direct access to some of the most important annual revisions to U.S. payroll employment data.

Most news traders know the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. Fewer focus on the annual benchmark process that determines how closely the sample-based Current Employment Statistics estimates match more comprehensive employment counts.

That benchmark process has become increasingly relevant. HAAWKS research covering the 2016–2025 preliminary benchmark revisions shows that the magnitude of the revisions has increased materially in recent years, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Next release: BLS is scheduled to publish the March 2026 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision on Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary announcement does not immediately revise the official monthly CES employment series.

Seven New HAAWKS G4A Data Points

HAAWKS will initially disseminate two machine-readable fields from the preliminary benchmark release and five fields from the annual benchmark revision.

CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision Next release: August 28, 2026 — 10:00 a.m. ET

2 New Data Points

• Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
• Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.

CES Annual Benchmark Revision Next release: February 2027 — exact BLS date pending

5 New Data Points

• Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
• Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
• Total nonfarm employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
• Total private employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
• Total nonfarm employment annual revision, December of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands, observation status preliminary.

BLS has confirmed that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be incorporated with the January 2027 Employment Situation release in February 2027. The exact release date has not yet been published on the official BLS calendar.

What Is a CES Benchmark Revision?

The monthly Current Employment Statistics survey estimates payroll employment from a sample of businesses and government agencies. Each year, those estimates are benchmarked against more comprehensive employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW.

QCEW counts are derived primarily from state unemployment-insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. BLS defines the benchmark revision as the difference between the March universe count and the corresponding sample-based CES employment estimate, after accounting for changes in employment scope.

Important for news traders: a preliminary benchmark revision is not the same thing as a monthly NFP revision and it is not a direct estimate of how many jobs were created during the year. It is a revision to the estimated March employment level.

Preliminary Does Not Mean the Monthly Series Changes Immediately

The August preliminary release provides an early estimate of the benchmark difference, but BLS does not immediately rewrite the official CES monthly employment series using that number.

The benchmark is incorporated later as part of the annual benchmark process. This distinction is particularly important for automated news trading systems: the preliminary benchmark is new information about the estimated employment level, while the later annual release actually incorporates benchmark and seasonal-adjustment changes into the historical CES series.

The 2025 benchmark provides a useful example. In September 2025, BLS estimated a preliminary total nonfarm revision of −911,000 jobs, or −0.6%, for March 2025. When the annual benchmark was incorporated in February 2026, the final not-seasonally-adjusted March revision was −862,000, or −0.5%. The seasonally adjusted March employment level was revised by −898,000.

In other words, the preliminary release can provide a powerful signal, but news traders also need to distinguish it from the later official benchmarked series.

HAAWKS Research: Preliminary Revisions 2016–2025

HAAWKS reviewed 10 years of national preliminary CES benchmark revisions. Negative figures indicate that the previously published CES employment level was above the preliminary benchmark estimate.

Benchmark Year	Total Nonfarm Revision	Total Nonfarm %	Total Private Revision	Total Private %
2016	−150K	−0.1%	−224K	−0.2%
2017	+95K	+0.1%	+98K	+0.1%
2018	+43K	<+0.05%	−17K	<−0.05%
2019	−501K	−0.3%	−514K	−0.4%
2020	−173K	−0.1%	−229K	−0.2%
2021	−166K	−0.1%	−421K	−0.3%
2022	+462K	+0.3%	+571K	+0.4%
2023	−306K	−0.2%	−358K	−0.3%
2024	−818K	−0.5%	−819K	−0.6%
2025	−911K	−0.6%	−880K	−0.7%

The two largest preliminary revisions in the 10-year sample occurred in 2024 and 2025 for both total nonfarm and total private employment.

Revision Magnitudes Have Increased Recently

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.12% First five-year window

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.34% 2.83× the prior window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.18% First five-year window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.46% 2.56× the prior window

Statistic, 2016–2025	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Mean Signed Revision	−0.15%	−0.22%
Mean Absolute Revision	0.23%	0.32%
Median Absolute Revision	0.15%	0.30%
Sample Standard Deviation	0.27 percentage points	0.33 percentage points
Mean Absolute Revision, 2016–2020	0.12%	0.18%
Mean Absolute Revision, 2021–2025	0.34%	0.46%
Increase Between Five-Year Windows	2.83×	2.56×
Largest Absolute Revision	0.6% — 2025	0.7% — 2025
Second Largest	0.5% — 2024	0.6% — 2024

Is the Increase Statistically Significant?

HAAWKS also tested whether the absolute size of preliminary revisions has been trending upward over the full 2016–2025 period.

Simple Linear Trend	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Increase Per Year	+0.050 percentage points	+0.058 percentage points
R²	0.61	0.67
p-value	0.007	0.004
95% Confidence Interval	+0.018 to +0.083 points/year	+0.025 to +0.091 points/year

On the complete 10-year sample, the upward trend in absolute revision size is statistically detectable.

However, there is an important qualification: the result is heavily influenced by the exceptionally large revisions in 2024 and 2025. Removing those two years causes the trend to lose conventional statistical significance.

Excluding 2024 and 2025: the trend-test p-value rises to 0.217 for total nonfarm and 0.115 for total private. The evidence therefore supports a recent increase in revision magnitude rather than a smooth, firmly established long-term trend.

Direction of the Revisions

Total Nonfarm

Seven of the 10 preliminary benchmark years were negative, two were positive and one was effectively near zero in percentage terms. The last three observations — 2023, 2024 and 2025 — were all negative.

Total Private

Eight of the 10 revisions were negative, including the very small −17,000 revision in 2018, while only 2017 and 2022 were positive. The largest negative percentage revision was −0.7% in 2025.

Why Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

They Can Change the Employment Narrative

A large negative benchmark estimate can indicate that previously published payroll employment levels overstated the underlying employment count, potentially changing how traders assess labor market momentum.

They Can Affect Fed Expectations

Labor-market strength is a major input into monetary-policy expectations. A materially different benchmark can therefore affect the market's interpretation of the employment outlook and the expected path of interest rates.

The Preliminary Release Is a Separate Event

The August preliminary benchmark is released independently from the normal 8:30 a.m. monthly NFP release. For 2026, the national preliminary benchmark is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on August 28.

The Annual Release Arrives With NFP

The final annual benchmark is incorporated with the January Employment Situation in February. News-trading systems therefore need to distinguish current-month payroll data from benchmark and historical-revision fields arriving in the same release.

HAAWKS view: benchmark data deserve their own structured fields. A large benchmark revision can change the historical employment picture even when the current monthly NFP headline receives most of the attention. For low-latency news traders, identifying the exact field, observation period, seasonal-adjustment status and preliminary or final status is essential.

Preliminary vs. Annual Benchmark: What Traders Need to Distinguish

Feature	Preliminary Benchmark	Annual / Final Benchmark
Typical Timing	Late August / early September	February with January Employment Situation
Key Reference Month	March	March, plus revised historical monthly series
Preliminary Release Updates Official CES Series?	No	Yes
HAAWKS Initial Coverage	2 machine-readable fields	5 machine-readable fields
News-Trading Focus	Size and direction of the preliminary benchmark difference	Final benchmark plus revised seasonally adjusted employment levels

HAAWKS Conclusion

HAAWKS is adding seven machine-readable CES benchmark-revision data points to expand G4A coverage of the U.S. labor market beyond the standard monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Two fields will cover the annual CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision, beginning with the March 2026 benchmark scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Five additional fields will cover the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, including March benchmark revisions and seasonally adjusted March and December employment revisions.

The historical evidence explains why these numbers deserve attention. From 2016–2020, the average absolute preliminary total-nonfarm revision was only 0.12%. In 2021–2025, it increased to 0.34%. For total private employment, the corresponding increase was from 0.18% to 0.46%.

The 2024 and 2025 revisions were unusually large, so the evidence should not be interpreted as proof that revisions will continue increasing each year. It does, however, demonstrate that benchmark releases can contain economically significant information and should not be overlooked by professional news traders.

For latency-sensitive strategies, the challenge is not merely receiving the release quickly. It is receiving each data point with the correct reference period, seasonal-adjustment status, units and observation status in a structured format that can be processed immediately.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

New CES Benchmark Data Coming to HAAWKS G4A

HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data for professional news traders. The new CES benchmark fields expand our coverage of U.S. labor-market releases and will be available through the same machine-readable API infrastructure.

HAAWKS G4A data is available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources & Methodology

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics
   Official CES program page and current release schedule.
2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2026 Release Calendar
   Confirms the March 2026 national preliminary CES benchmark release for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark
   Official preliminary benchmark release, methodology and benchmark revision tables.
4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Technical Notes for the CES National Benchmark
   Used for benchmark definitions, historical benchmark information and methodology.
5. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — January 2026 Employment Situation
   Used for the final March 2025 benchmark revision and the annual incorporation of benchmarked CES data.
6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Situation
   Confirms that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be issued with the January 2027 Employment Situation in February 2027.
7. HAAWKS Research — CES Preliminary Benchmark Revisions, 2016–2025
   Historical preliminary benchmark figures compiled from BLS preliminary benchmark announcements and contemporaneous archived releases. Statistical calculations use the preliminary March not-seasonally-adjusted percentage revisions. Revisions reported by BLS as less than 0.05% in absolute magnitude for 2018 were encoded as 0.0% for percentage-based statistical calculations.

Research note: CES preliminary benchmark percentages refer to revisions to the estimated March employment level and should not be interpreted as direct revisions to the number of jobs created during a calendar year. The statistical analysis is descriptive and based on a small 10-year sample. The apparent trend is heavily influenced by the 2024 and 2025 observations.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Economic releases may cause significant volatility, wider spreads, reduced liquidity and slippage. Past market behavior is not indicative of future results.

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points for Agricultural Markets

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points

On Thursday, July 16, 2026, HAAWKS expanded its agricultural market coverage with the launch of 40 structured data points from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.

Published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET throughout the year, the report provides one of the most timely official indicators of international demand for U.S. agricultural commodities.

The new HAAWKS dataset covers weekly net export sales for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice, with separate values for the current and next marketing years.

Unlike reports released after agricultural markets have closed, the Weekly Export Sales Report is published while the principal futures contracts are actively trading. This makes speed, accurate normalization, and machine-readable delivery especially important for algorithmic and event-driven market participants.

What HAAWKS Delivers

HAAWKS will disseminate 40 data points covering five major commodity groups and their relevant product classifications.

Commodity	Data Coverage
Wheat Various types and classes	Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
Corn	Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
Soybeans Various types	Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
Cotton Various types	Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
Rice Various types	Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year

The individual product and commodity classifications provide more detailed information than a single headline export-sales figure. This allows users to identify differences in demand across crop types, qualities, and delivery periods.

Why Weekly Export Sales Matter

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report provides a current view of overseas demand for U.S. agricultural products.

Strong net sales may indicate improving international demand, increased forward purchasing, or progress toward USDA full-year export projections. Weak sales, cancellations, or net reductions may point to softer demand, changing destination activity, or stronger competition from other exporting countries.

However, the market does not react only to whether sales appear high or low.

The most important signal is frequently the difference between the reported value and what market participants expected before the release.

A weekly corn export-sales figure may be supportive if it exceeds expectations, but the same figure may be disappointing if traders anticipated an even larger result.

For systematic analysis, the core event signal can be expressed as:

Export-sales surprise = reported net sales − expected net sales

The size and direction of that surprise can then be assessed alongside:

• The previous reporting week

• Recent weekly averages

• Seasonal export patterns

• Outstanding export commitments

• Reported cancellations

• Major destination activity

• Progress toward USDA export projections

• Current and next marketing year allocations

Current and Next Marketing Year Sales

HAAWKS provides separate data points for the current marketing year and the next marketing year.

Current marketing year net sales represent new commitments, adjustments, and cancellations for delivery during the active marketing year. These figures are particularly relevant to near-term demand and the pace required to meet annual export forecasts.

Next marketing year net sales represent forward commitments for delivery after the current marketing year ends. They can provide an early indication of demand for the upcoming crop cycle and may become increasingly important as the current marketing year approaches its conclusion.

Separating the two periods helps traders and analysts distinguish immediate demand from longer-term purchasing activity.

It also prevents a large next-year sale from being interpreted as an equally strong signal for nearby supply and demand conditions.

What Are Net Export Sales?

Net export sales represent newly reported sales after accounting for cancellations, reductions, destination changes, and other adjustments.

A positive number generally indicates that new sales exceeded cancellations and reductions during the reporting period.

A negative number can occur when cancellations or downward adjustments are larger than newly reported sales.

Net sales are therefore not the same as physical exports or shipments. A sale represents a commitment, while an export represents the physical movement of the commodity.

For a complete demand assessment, traders may compare net sales with:

• Physical exports

• Outstanding sales

• Accumulated exports

• Destination-level activity

• Historical seasonal patterns

• USDA annual export forecasts

Released During Active Futures Trading

The report is published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET while major agricultural futures markets are open.

CME grain and oilseed futures, including corn, soybeans, and wheat, continue trading until 8:45 AM ET during the overnight session. Trading then pauses before the main daytime session begins at 9:30 AM ET.

ICE Cotton No. 2 futures are also actively trading at 8:30 AM ET.

This creates two important reaction windows.

Time	Market Event	Relevance
8:30 AM ET	USDA Weekly Export Sales Report released	Immediate data ingestion and event detection
8:30–8:45 AM ET	CME grain and oilseed futures remain open	Initial algorithmic price discovery
8:45–9:30 AM ET	CME grain and oilseed trading pause	Further analysis and order preparation
9:30 AM ET	CME daytime session begins	Broader liquidity and potential follow-through
9:30 AM ET	Regular U.S. stock and ETF trading begins	Potential reaction in related listed instruments

The 15-minute period between the report release and the end of the overnight CME session is especially relevant for automated traders.

During this window, systems can ingest the new figures, compare them with expectations, identify material surprises, apply risk controls, and generate trading signals while the underlying futures remain tradable.

Directly Relevant Markets

The data is most directly relevant to futures and options linked to the commodities included in the report:

• CBOT corn futures and options

• CBOT soybean futures and options

• CBOT wheat futures and options

• KC hard red winter wheat futures and options

• Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options

• ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options

• CBOT rough rice futures and options

The report may also be relevant to related commodity spreads and processing relationships, including soybean crush components and differences among wheat classes.

The strength of the market reaction depends on more than the headline figure. It can also be affected by the reporting period, destination, size of revisions or cancellations, seasonal demand, existing positioning, liquidity, and whether the result was already anticipated.

Designed for Algorithmic Trading Workflows

Many HAAWKS clients consume market news through automated or algorithmic systems rather than by manually reading and interpreting reports.

For these users, an official report published as a document or web page must first be converted into standardized fields before it can be used reliably.

HAAWKS transforms the USDA release into structured data points designed for systematic consumption.

The dataset can support workflows such as:

• Real-time event detection

• Automated estimate comparison

• Surprise calculation

• Commodity and product classification

• Current-year and next-year separation

• Cancellation and net-reduction detection

• Historical event analysis

• Quantitative model inputs

• Automated alerts

• Trading signal generation

• Risk-management checks

• Dashboard and API integration

Consistent field definitions are particularly important when the same report contains numerous commodities, product types, marketing years, destinations, and adjustments.

By normalizing the data, HAAWKS allows systems to compare each new observation with prior releases without repeatedly interpreting the underlying report structure.

From Release to Market Signal

An algorithmic workflow may process the report in several stages:

1. Receive the structured HAAWKS data.

2. Validate the commodity, product type, and marketing year.

3. Compare the reported figure with the expected value.

4. Calculate the size and direction of the surprise.

5. Compare the result with prior weeks and historical ranges.

6. Apply commodity-specific signal thresholds.

7. Check liquidity, market conditions, and risk limits.

8. Generate an alert, analytical output, or trading instruction.

Not every statistical surprise creates a meaningful price move.

A large soybean sales figure, for example, may have limited impact if it was widely expected or if it reflects a previously announced transaction. Conversely, an unexpected cancellation or net reduction may matter even when the absolute weekly figure appears relatively small.

The HAAWKS dataset provides the structured inputs needed for users to make those distinctions within their own models and strategies.

More Than a Headline Figure

The detailed structure of the Weekly Export Sales Report helps users look beyond aggregate demand.

Important questions include:

• Which commodity or product class was sold?

• Does the sale apply to the current or next marketing year?

• Were previous commitments cancelled or reduced?

• Which destinations were involved?

• Are sales concentrated among one or several buyers?

• How does the result compare with the pace needed to meet USDA projections?

• Are reported commitments translating into physical exports?

• Is one commodity class performing differently from another?

For wheat, cotton, rice, and soybeans, product-level differences can be particularly important. Strong demand for one class or type does not necessarily imply equally strong demand for the broader commodity category.

Expanding HAAWKS Agricultural Coverage

The addition of USDA Weekly Export Sales data strengthens HAAWKS’ coverage of both the demand and supply sides of agricultural markets.

USDA Crop Progress data provides insight into planting, crop development, condition, and harvest activity.

USDA Export Sales data provides insight into international demand, cancellations, and forward purchasing commitments.

Together, the datasets help users monitor how U.S. production conditions interact with global demand throughout the agricultural cycle.

By delivering official USDA information in a clean, structured, and machine-readable format, HAAWKS helps traders and analysts move more efficiently from report publication to systematic market analysis.

For algorithmic participants, that means receiving structured data while the directly relevant futures markets are still trading.

Sources

1. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Export Sales Reporting Program
   Official information about the reporting program and the Thursday 8:30 AM ET release schedule.
   https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program
2. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Weekly Export Sales
   Official weekly reports and downloadable export-sales data.
   https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports
3. CME Group — Corn Futures
   Contract information and trading hours for CBOT corn futures.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
4. CME Group — Soybean Futures
   Contract information and trading hours for CBOT soybean futures.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/oilseeds/soybean.html
5. CME Group — Chicago Wheat Futures
   Contract information and trading hours for CBOT wheat futures.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.html
6. CME Group — KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
   Contract information for KC HRW wheat futures.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/kc-wheat.html
7. CME Group — Rough Rice Futures
   Contract information and trading hours for rough rice futures.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/rough-rice.html
8. ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
   Official contract specifications and trading hours.
   https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Natural Gas Futures Drop 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds After EIA Storage Report

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 16 July 2026.

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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HAAWKS Research

Natural Gas Storage Build Triggers a 39-Tick Selloff in 11 Seconds

U.S. natural gas futures reacted sharply after the EIA reported a 41 Bcf storage injection, with the market looking beyond the slightly smaller-than-expected build to focus on abundant inventories and strong domestic production.

July 16, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • Week ending July 10, 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that working natural gas inventories increased by 41 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 10, bringing total Lower 48 storage to 3,024 Bcf.

The build was slightly smaller than the Reuters analyst consensus of 43 Bcf and below the five-year average injection of 45 Bcf. Despite the modestly tighter weekly flow, natural gas sold off immediately after the release.

HAAWKS first read: The market did not treat the smaller-than-expected injection as a sustainable bullish signal. Traders instead focused on inventories remaining 6.4% above the five-year average, rising production and softer LNG feedgas demand.

Storage Report at a Glance

Weekly Injection +41 Bcf Reuters consensus: +43 Bcf

Total Storage 3,024 Bcf Lower 48 working gas

vs. Five-Year Average +181 Bcf 6.4% above average

vs. One Year Ago −21 Bcf 0.7% below last year

Weekly natural gas storage report compared with forecasts and historical levels

Storage Indicator	Reported	Comparison	HAAWKS Read-through
Weekly Net Change	+41 Bcf	Reuters forecast: +43 Bcf	The injection was 2 Bcf below consensus, representing a slightly tighter weekly result than expected.
Five-Year Average Injection	+45 Bcf	Actual was 4 Bcf smaller	The weekly flow was below normal, but the total inventory surplus remained substantial.
Total Working Gas	3,024 Bcf	3,045 Bcf one year ago	Inventories were 21 Bcf, or 0.7%, below the comparable year-earlier level.
Five-Year Average Stocks	2,843 Bcf	Current stocks: +181 Bcf	The 6.4% storage surplus continued to provide a bearish buffer against weather-driven demand.

Immediate Market Reaction

39 Ticks Lower

Natural Gas Fell 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds

The HAAWKS tick chart recorded an immediate 39-tick decline in natural gas within the first 11 seconds following the 10:30 a.m. ET storage release. The speed of the move showed that the market interpreted the broader storage and supply backdrop as bearish, despite the injection coming in slightly below expectations.

Natural gas market reaction following the weekly EIA storage report

Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Initial Direction	Interpretation
Natural Gas	39 ticks	11 seconds	Lower	Immediate selling indicated that surplus inventories and broader supply conditions outweighed the slightly smaller weekly build.

Regional Storage Breakdown

The Midwest recorded the largest regional injection at 20 Bcf, followed by the East with 14 Bcf. The South Central region added only 3 Bcf as a 5 Bcf withdrawal from salt facilities partially offset an 8 Bcf injection into nonsalt storage.

Regional changes in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending July 10, 2026

Region	Working Gas	Weekly Change	vs. Last Year	vs. Five-Year Average
East	614 Bcf	+14 Bcf	−1.9%	+1.7%
Midwest	749 Bcf	+20 Bcf	+3.0%	+6.2%
Mountain	240 Bcf	+4 Bcf	+2.6%	+21.2%
Pacific	319 Bcf	0 Bcf	+8.5%	+21.8%
South Central	1,103 Bcf	+3 Bcf	−5.2%	+2.7%
Total Lower 48	3,024 Bcf	+41 Bcf	−0.7%	+6.4%

Why Did Natural Gas Fall?

The Storage Surplus Remained Large

Although the weekly injection was slightly smaller than expected, inventories remained 181 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus continued to limit concerns about supply availability during the summer cooling season.

Production Remained Strong

Lower 48 natural gas production averaged approximately 110.3 Bcf per day during July. Strong output gave the market confidence that storage could remain adequately supplied even as electricity demand increased.

LNG Feedgas Flows Were Below Their Peak

Feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals averaged around 17.4 Bcf per day during July, below the record level reached in April. Reduced export demand left more domestic supply available to the U.S. market.

HAAWKS view: The 41 Bcf injection was nominally supportive because it came in below both consensus and the five-year average. However, the 39-tick selloff showed that traders placed greater weight on the continuing inventory surplus, high production and subdued LNG demand.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Weather remains the most important near-term variable. Sustained heat across the Midwest and East could increase power-sector gas consumption and produce a smaller injection in the next storage report.

Traders should also monitor Lower 48 production, LNG terminal activity and the pace at which the five-year storage surplus narrows. A series of tighter injections would be more important than a single below-average build.

The next EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for July 23, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 16 natural gas storage report delivered a slightly tighter result than expected. The 41 Bcf injection was below the 43 Bcf Reuters consensus and the 45 Bcf five-year average build.

The immediate market response was nevertheless decisively bearish. Natural gas dropped 39 ticks in only 11 seconds, demonstrating that the market remained more concerned with abundant total inventories than with the modest weekly miss.

Total working gas stood at 3,024 Bcf—21 Bcf below the prior-year level but still 181 Bcf above the five-year average. This left the market adequately supplied and reduced the urgency to price a near-term shortage.

The key message is that the headline injection cannot be viewed in isolation. Storage levels, production, weather, electricity demand and LNG exports collectively determine whether a report is genuinely bullish or bearish.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
   Official source for the 41 Bcf injection, total Lower 48 inventories, regional storage changes and comparisons with last year and the five-year average.
2. Reuters — U.S. natural gas prices slide on rising production and ample storage
   Used for the 43 Bcf analyst consensus, five-year average injection, production, LNG flows and broader futures-market context.
3. HAAWKS internal natural gas tick-chart analysis — July 16, 2026
   Used for the measured release-window market reaction of 39 ticks lower in 11 seconds.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and past market behavior is not indicative of future results.

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Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data is one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

USDA Crop Progress: Market Impact on Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

USDA Crop Progress: Immediate and Next-Day Market Impact Across Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

Every Monday during the U.S. growing season, the USDA Crop Progress Report gives agricultural markets a fresh read on planting, emergence, crop conditions, and harvest progress.

For traders and analysts, the report is more than an update on field activity. It is a weekly supply-side signal that can influence expectations for yield, production, input costs, and short-term price discovery across directly linked agricultural markets.

At HAAWKS, we are introducing structured weekly Crop Progress data points across major U.S. crops to help market participants analyze those signals faster and more consistently.

What HAAWKS will track

HAAWKS will disseminate 30 weekly data points from the USDA Crop Progress Report, covering six major U.S. crops:

Table 1: HAAWKS Crop Progress Data Coverage

Crop	Data Points
Corn	Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
Soybeans	Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
Cotton	Planted, squaring, good/excellent condition, harvested
Rice	Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
Winter wheat	Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
Spring wheat	Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested

These indicators provide a high-frequency view of crop development and crop health before final yield and production estimates are known.

Why Crop Progress can move markets

The market does not react simply because a Crop Progress number is high or low.

It reacts when the number is different from what traders expected.

A corn crop rated 67% good/excellent may be bullish if the market expected 70%. The same 67% rating may be bearish if the market expected 64%. The important variable is the surprise.

In practice, the reaction framework is straightforward:

Table 2: Crop Progress Surprise and Typical Market Interpretation

Crop Progress Surprise	Typical Market Interpretation
Better-than-expected good/excellent ratings	Higher yield potential, usually bearish for futures
Worse-than-expected good/excellent ratings	Greater production risk, usually bullish for futures
Faster-than-expected planting	Lower acreage or timing risk, often bearish
Slower-than-expected planting	Higher acreage or yield risk, often bullish
Faster-than-expected harvest	More near-term supply availability, often bearish nearby futures
Slower-than-expected harvest	Delayed supply movement, often supportive nearby futures

The strongest research evidence is in corn and soybeans, where academic work has found that USDA Crop Progress and condition information can affect futures price discovery around the report window. The effect is especially important during the most weather-sensitive periods of the growing season.

Immediate impact: the first tradable window

The USDA Crop Progress Report is released at 4:00 PM ET. That timing matters.

Most directly linked U.S. agricultural futures markets are already closed when the report is published. As a result, the first clean futures reaction usually happens when markets reopen in the evening session.

Table 3: First Direct Reaction Window by Market

Market	First Direct Reaction Window
Corn futures	Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
Soybean futures	Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
Wheat futures	Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
Rough rice futures	Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
Cotton No. 2 futures	Monday evening reopen, around 9:00 PM ET
Ethanol futures	Potentially same day, because ethanol futures are generally still open at the 4:00 PM ET release time

This means Crop Progress data is often digested before the evening futures reopen. Traders have time to compare the USDA figures against estimates, prior-week levels, five-year averages, weather forecasts, and crop-stage sensitivity.

Next-day impact

For many users, the most practical impact window is the next trading day.

Tuesday’s session reflects a more complete market response, including overnight futures trading, new analyst commentary, updated weather models, and broader liquidity from U.S. equity and ETF markets.

Useful next-day measures include:

Table 4: Next-Day Market Impact Measures

Metric	What It Captures
Monday settlement to evening reopen	First futures repricing opportunity
First 30–60 minutes after reopen	Immediate futures price discovery
Monday settlement to Tuesday settlement	Full next-day futures impact
Tuesday ETF open vs. prior close	Equity-market translation of the futures move
Tuesday stock open vs. prior close	Operational exposure repricing

This distinction is important for ETFs and stocks. U.S. equities close at 4:00 PM ET, the same time the USDA report is released. While after-hours trading may exist, the cleaner and more liquid equity-market reaction usually occurs the next regular trading day.

Directly linked futures markets

Crop Progress data is most directly relevant for futures tied to the underlying crops.

Table 5: Directly Linked Futures Markets

Crop Progress Data	Direct Futures Market
Corn	CBOT corn futures and options
Soybeans	CBOT soybean futures and options
Winter wheat	CBOT wheat and KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
Spring wheat	Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
Cotton	ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
Rice	CBOT rough rice futures and options
Corn supply outlook	CME denatured fuel ethanol futures

The futures impact is usually clearest in corn and soybeans because these markets are highly liquid and because Crop Progress data directly informs expectations around planting success, crop health, yield potential, and harvest timing.

The corn–ethanol connection

Ethanol belongs in the Crop Progress discussion because corn is the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production.

A stronger-than-expected corn crop can reduce concern about corn availability and input costs for ethanol producers. A weaker-than-expected corn crop can raise concern about feedstock costs and pressure ethanol margins.

The connection is not always one-directional. Ethanol prices also depend on gasoline blending economics, energy prices, Renewable Identification Numbers, export demand, operating rates, inventories, and policy. Still, Crop Progress data can directly affect the corn-cost side of the ethanol margin equation.

A simplified framework:

Table 6: Corn Crop Progress and Ethanol Market Relevance

Crop Progress Signal	Corn Market Effect	Possible Ethanol-Market Relevance
Better corn condition than expected	Bearish corn input-cost signal	May support ethanol margins if ethanol prices hold
Worse corn condition than expected	Bullish corn input-cost signal	May pressure ethanol margins
Faster harvest than expected	More near-term corn availability	Can ease feedstock availability concerns
Slower harvest than expected	Delayed corn movement	Can tighten local supply and basis conditions

For this reason, ethanol futures and ethanol-exposed companies are directly linked to corn Crop Progress data, even if the reaction is filtered through margins rather than through crop price alone.

Directly linked ETFs

For equity-market participants, the cleanest ETF links are futures-based agriculture funds.

Table 7: Directly Linked ETFs

ETF	Direct Link
CORN	Corn futures exposure
SOYB	Soybean futures exposure
WEAT	Wheat futures exposure
DBA	Broad agriculture futures basket
TILL	Futures exposure to corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar

These ETFs are not Crop Progress instruments themselves. Their link comes from the futures they hold or reference. If Crop Progress creates a meaningful move in corn, soybean, or wheat futures, the effect may be reflected in the relevant futures-based ETF during the next ETF trading session.

Directly linked stocks

Stocks are less pure than futures or futures-based ETFs, but several companies have direct operational exposure to corn, ethanol, grain merchandising, or oilseed processing.

Table 8: Directly Linked Stocks

Stock	Crop Progress Link
Green Plains	Corn feedstock costs and ethanol crush margins
Alto Ingredients	Renewable fuels, specialty alcohols, and ethanol-market exposure
The Andersons	Grain merchandising and ethanol/renewables exposure
Archer-Daniels-Midland	Corn processing, ethanol, oilseeds, and grain merchandising
Bunge Global	Oilseed processing, grain origination, and merchandising
Valero Energy	Ethanol segment exposure, though diluted by larger refining operations

For stocks, the Crop Progress signal is usually indirect at the share-price level. A corn condition surprise may affect ethanol margins or merchandising opportunities, but company-specific news, energy prices, crush margins, balance-sheet factors, and broader equity-market conditions can dominate.

The cleanest stock impact is usually in companies with meaningful ethanol or grain-processing exposure, particularly when the Crop Progress surprise is large enough to change expectations for corn costs, soybean supply, or harvest timing.

Public sources for pre-release estimates

Because markets react to surprises, estimates matter.

The most useful comparison is:

Actual USDA value minus pre-release consensus estimate.

Publicly available estimate sources may include:

Table 9: Public Sources for Pre-Release Estimates

Source Type	Use
Reuters analyst polls, often republished by agricultural media	Consensus expectations for planting, harvest, or condition ratings
Pro Farmer	Pre-report estimate summaries and market commentary
Agriculture.com / Successful Farming	Reuters-based Crop Progress estimates and report coverage
Farm Progress / Farm Futures	Analyst expectations and post-report comparisons
Barchart / Brugler commentary	Estimate references, crop-rating commentary, and condition-index interpretation
DTN / Progressive Farmer	USDA Crop Progress summaries and analyst context
USDA NASS prior week and five-year average	Historical baseline, not a consensus estimate

Prior-week values and five-year averages are important context, but they are not the same as market expectations. A number can be above the five-year average and still disappoint traders if expectations were even higher.

How HAAWKS helps

The value of Crop Progress data is highest when it can be used immediately.

HAAWKS structures the weekly USDA Crop Progress release into clean, real-time data points so users can compare the latest report against the previous week, historical benchmarks, and market estimates.

This helps traders, analysts, and agricultural market participants answer the key questions quickly:

Did the USDA number beat or miss expectations?

Was the surprise large enough to matter?

Which futures markets are directly linked?

Could the reaction carry into ethanol, ETFs, or directly exposed ag stocks the next day?

Conclusion

USDA Crop Progress data is one of the most important weekly inputs for U.S. agricultural market analysis during the growing season.

The strongest immediate and next-day impact is typically seen in directly linked futures markets, especially corn and soybeans. The data can also influence ethanol through the corn feedstock channel and may carry into futures-based agriculture ETFs and directly exposed ag stocks during the next equity-market session.

For market participants, the key is not the absolute number. It is the surprise versus expectations, the seasonal timing of the report, and the market’s ability to translate crop progress into supply, yield, and margin expectations.

By delivering structured Crop Progress data, HAAWKS helps users move from raw USDA figures to market-relevant analysis faster.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources

1. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — Crop Progress
   Source for the Crop Progress report description, coverage, and weekly release schedule.
   https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress

2. CME Group — Corn Futures Contract Specifications
   Source for CME grain futures trading hours, including the evening reopen schedule relevant to corn, soybeans, wheat, and rough rice.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html

3. ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
   Source for ICE Cotton No. 2 trading hours.
   https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures

4. CME Group — Denatured Fuel Ethanol Futures FAQ
   Source for ethanol futures trading hours and the daily maintenance window.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-denatured-fuel-ethanol.html

5. CME Group — Are Corn and Ethanol Markets Correlated?
   Source for the corn–ethanol market connection, including corn as the primary U.S. ethanol input and ethanol’s share of domestic corn disappearance.
   https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2024/Are-Corn-and-Ethanol-Markets-Correlated.html

6. USDA Economic Research Service — Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030
   Source for the statement that ethanol manufacturers use about 40% of the U.S. corn crop for ethanol and related co-products.
   https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=105761

7. Lehecka, G. V. — The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets
   Academic source supporting the market impact of USDA Crop Progress and condition information on corn and soybean futures.
   https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/168261.html

8. Bethlem et al. — The Impact of the USDA Soybean Crop Condition Reports on Soybean Futures Prices
   Academic source supporting next-day soybean futures price reaction to changes in good/excellent soybean crop ratings.
   https://www.scielo.br/j/resr/a/vcxYjcBRQYWDd6HL6Vq85WF/?lang=en

9. Bain and Fortenbery — Impact of Crop Condition Reports on National and Local Wheat Markets
   Academic source showing weaker or mixed evidence for wheat crop condition reports compared with corn and soybeans.
   https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-and-applied-economics/article/impact-of-crop-condition-reports-on-national-and-local-wheat-markets/F0BC21D69B41FEE1FF420ADD6FC65431

10. Teucrium — CORN Fund
    Source for futures-based ETF exposure to corn.
    https://teucrium.com/corn

11. Teucrium — SOYB Fund
    Source for futures-based ETF exposure to soybeans.
    https://teucrium.com/soybeans

12. Teucrium — WEAT Fund
    Source for futures-based ETF exposure to wheat.
    https://teucrium.com/weat

13. Teucrium — TILL Fund
    Source for broader futures-based agricultural exposure.
    https://teucrium.com/till

14. Invesco — DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
    Source for DBA’s exposure to a rules-based index of agricultural commodity futures.
    https://www.invesco.com/us/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-db-agriculture-fund.html

15. Green Plains Annual Report
    Source for Green Plains’ corn feedstock exposure in dry-mill ethanol production.
    https://gpreinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Green-Plains-2023-Annual-Report_Web.pdf

16. ADM — Industrial Ethanol Products
    Source for ADM ethanol production from corn feedstock.
    https://www.adm.com/en-us/products-services/industrial-biosolutions/products/ethanol/

HAAWKS Adds Weekly USDA Crop Progress Data for Major U.S. Crops

HAAWKS Expands Agricultural Coverage with Weekly USDA Crop Progress Data

HAAWKS is pleased to announce the upcoming introduction and dissemination of new data points from the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report, one of the key reference sources for monitoring the development and condition of major U.S. crops throughout the growing season.

Released every Monday at 4:00 PM ET from April through November, the USDA Crop Progress Report provides timely updates on planting, emergence, crop conditions, and harvesting progress across major agricultural commodities. The next release is scheduled for 22 June 2026.

To support faster analysis and better market visibility, HAAWKS will introduce 30 weekly crop progress data points, covering six major U.S. crops:

Corn
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Soybeans
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Cotton
Planted, squaring, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Rice
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Winter Wheat
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Spring Wheat
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

By making these data points available in a structured and timely format, HAAWKS helps traders, analysts, and agricultural market participants track crop development more efficiently and respond more quickly to changing supply-side conditions.

The addition of USDA Crop Progress data further strengthens HAAWKS’ commitment to delivering high-quality, market-relevant agricultural data that supports informed decision-making across the commodity markets.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress

30 ticks potential profit in 97 seconds on 28 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 30 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 28 May 2026.

Natural gas (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Natural Gas Storage Climbs by 92 Bcf, Staying Above the Five-Year Average

U.S. working natural gas in underground storage rose sharply for the week ending May 22, 2026, according to the latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Total working gas stocks reached 2,483 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net increase of 92 Bcf from the prior week.

The latest build keeps storage levels slightly above both last year’s mark and the five-year average. Stocks were 21 Bcf higher than the same week in 2025 and 144 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,339 Bcf. At 2,483 Bcf, total working gas remains within the five-year historical range.

Regional Storage Trends

The weekly increase was broad-based across all major Lower 48 storage regions.

The East region reported working gas stocks of 447 Bcf, up 28 Bcf from the previous week. Compared with historical levels, East inventories were 2.4% below last year but 1.1% above the five-year average.

The Midwest posted one of the larger regional gains, rising 34 Bcf to 539 Bcf. That placed Midwest stocks 0.4% above year-ago levels and 1.5% above the five-year average.

In the Mountain region, inventories increased by 3 Bcf to 213 Bcf. Storage levels there remained notably elevated, standing 8.1% above last year and 35.7% above the five-year average.

The Pacific region added 6 Bcf, bringing stocks to 292 Bcf. Pacific inventories were 15.4% higher than last year and 30.9% above the five-year average, making it one of the strongest regions relative to historical norms.

The South Central region reported stocks of 993 Bcf, up 21 Bcf from the previous week. Inventories were 2.4% below last year but still 0.6% above the five-year average.

Within South Central, salt storage rose by 7 Bcf to 305 Bcf, while nonsalt storage increased by 15 Bcf to 688 Bcf. Salt storage remained 6.7% below year-ago levels, though it was 2.0% above the five-year average. Nonsalt storage was nearly unchanged from both last year and the five-year average.

Storage Remains Comfortable Heading Into Summer

The 92 Bcf injection marks a sizable weekly build and leaves U.S. natural gas inventories in a relatively comfortable position heading into the summer cooling season. Total storage is not dramatically above historical norms, but it remains meaningfully stronger than the five-year average.

The regional breakdown also shows important differences. The Mountain and Pacific regions continue to hold inventories far above their five-year averages, while the East and South Central regions are modestly below last year’s levels. Still, the national picture points to adequate storage, with total working gas safely within the five-year historical range.

Key Takeaways

For the week ending May 22, 2026:

• Total U.S. working natural gas in storage was 2,483 Bcf

• Inventories increased by 92 Bcf from the previous week

• Stocks were 21 Bcf higher than last year

• Storage was 144 Bcf above the five-year average

• Total working gas remained within the five-year historical range

• The largest weekly regional increases came from the Midwest, East, and South Central regions

Overall, the latest EIA report suggests that U.S. natural gas storage remains well-positioned, with inventories above average and continued injections supporting supply levels ahead of peak summer demand.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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39 ticks potential profit in 44 seconds on 7 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 7 May 2026.

Natural gas (39 ticks)

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U.S. Natural Gas Storage Builds by 63 Bcf, Staying Above the Five-Year Average

The U.S. natural gas storage season continued to gain momentum in the week ending May 1, 2026, with working gas inventories rising by 63 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from the previous week. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, total working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states reached 2,205 Bcf.

That puts inventories 75 Bcf higher than the same week last year and 139 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,066 Bcf. In percentage terms, total stocks were 3.5% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year average.

While inventories remain comfortably within the five-year historical range, the latest report suggests that the market entered May with a relatively healthy storage cushion.

Regional Storage Trends

The weekly build was not evenly distributed across regions. Most areas posted increases, while the Mountain region recorded a small withdrawal.

The East region added 29 Bcf, bringing inventories to 361 Bcf. That level is nearly in line with the five-year average of 362 Bcf and slightly above last year’s 358 Bcf.

The Midwest saw a 23 Bcf increase, with stocks rising to 452 Bcf. Inventories there are just above last year’s level of 450 Bcf, though still 1.5% below the five-year average of 459 Bcf.

The Mountain region stood out with a 2 Bcf decline, leaving storage at 203 Bcf. Even with the weekly draw, this region remains well above historical benchmarks, sitting 13.4% above last year and 48.2% above the five-year average.

The Pacific region added 3 Bcf, bringing stocks to 275 Bcf. This is one of the strongest regional comparisons in the report, with inventories 19.0% above last year and 39.6% above the five-year average.

The South Central region, the largest storage region by volume, added 9 Bcf, bringing inventories to 914 Bcf. That is nearly flat compared with both last year and the five-year average, standing 0.2% above year-ago levels and 0.4% above the five-year average.

Within South Central, salt storage increased by 1 Bcf to 273 Bcf, while nonsalt storage rose by 7 Bcf to 641 Bcf. Salt storage remains 6.2% below last year and 1.4% below the five-year average, while nonsalt storage is above both comparisons.

What the Latest Build Means

The 63 Bcf injection reflects the seasonal transition from winter withdrawal season into spring and summer refill season. During this period, natural gas demand for heating typically declines, allowing more supply to move into underground storage ahead of the next winter.

The latest storage level of 2,205 Bcf suggests that the market is starting the refill season from a solid position. Inventories are not excessively high, but they are comfortably above both last year and the five-year average.

This matters because storage levels play a key role in shaping natural gas market expectations. Higher inventories can help reduce concerns about winter supply tightness, while lower inventories can increase price sensitivity to weather, production changes, and demand swings.

Regional Strength Is Concentrated in the West

One of the most notable details in the report is the strength of storage levels in the Mountain and Pacific regions. The Mountain region is almost 50% above its five-year average, while the Pacific region is nearly 40% above its five-year average.

By contrast, the East and Midwest are much closer to normal, and South Central is essentially in line with historical comparisons. This regional split suggests that national inventories are above average in part because of unusually strong storage positions in the western regions.

Bottom Line

For the week ending May 1, 2026, U.S. natural gas storage increased by 63 Bcf, bringing total working gas inventories to 2,205 Bcf. Stocks are now 75 Bcf above last year and 139 Bcf above the five-year average.

The report points to a generally well-supplied market as the injection season progresses. While regional differences remain, total inventories are within the five-year historical range and sitting above average heading into the warmer months.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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57 ticks potential profit in 40 seconds on 6 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 57 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 6 May 2026.

Light sweet crude oil (57 ticks)

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U.S. Oil Inventories Tighten as Fuel Prices Jump in Early May 2026

The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows a petroleum market under renewed pressure. For the week ending May 1, 2026, crude oil inventories declined, refinery activity remained strong, fuel stocks tightened, and retail gasoline and diesel prices moved sharply higher.

The headline number: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels, bringing total crude stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 457.2 million barrels. That level remains about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, but the weekly draw still points to a market where supply is being pulled down as refineries continue to run at high utilization.

Refineries Stay Busy, But Inputs Edge Lower

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day during the week, down 42,000 barrels per day from the prior week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.1% of operable capacity, a relatively strong utilization rate as the market moves deeper into the spring and closer to peak summer driving demand.

Gasoline production slipped to an average of 9.6 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production also declined, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.

Looking at the four-week averages, refinery activity remains slightly ahead of last year. Crude oil input to refineries averaged 16.032 million barrels per day, compared with 15.900 million barrels per day for the same period in 2025. Motor gasoline production also improved year over year, averaging 9.810 million barrels per day, versus 9.663 million barrels per day a year earlier.

Crude Imports Decline

Crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, down 273,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, imports averaged roughly 5.6 million barrels per day, which is 2.4% lower than the same four-week period last year.

Net crude oil imports over the latest four-week period averaged just 346,000 barrels per day, far below the 1.592 million barrels per day recorded during the comparable period in 2025. That reflects a much stronger net export position for the broader U.S. petroleum market.

Total petroleum net imports were deeply negative at -5.890 million barrels per day, meaning the U.S. exported far more petroleum and petroleum products than it imported on a net basis.

Fuel Inventories Move Lower

The report showed broad draws across key fuel categories.

Motor gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels to 219.8 million barrels. That leaves gasoline stocks about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, but blending component inventories declined enough to pull the overall gasoline stock figure lower.

Distillate fuel inventories declined by 1.3 million barrels to 102.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks are now about 11% below the five-year average, a notable shortfall given the importance of diesel and heating oil to freight, agriculture, industry, and winter fuel markets.

Propane and propylene inventories also decreased by 1.3 million barrels, though they remain exceptionally high by historical standards at 56% above the five-year average.

Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 5.9 million barrels for the week.

Demand Looks Firm Across Major Products

Total products supplied, a common proxy for demand, averaged 20.3 million barrels per day over the latest four-week period. That is up 2.6% from the same period last year.

Motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up 1.0% year over year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per day, up 3.5% from the same period last year.

Jet fuel was the weak spot. Jet fuel product supplied was down 6.2% compared with the same four-week period in 2025.

The demand picture is therefore mixed but generally constructive: gasoline and distillate consumption are running ahead of last year, while aviation fuel demand is lagging.

Crude and Fuel Prices Surge

The price section of the report is where the pressure becomes most visible.

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price stood at $105.38 per barrel on May 1, 2026. That was up $6.96 from the prior week and a striking $45.71 above the year-ago level of $59.67.

Refined product prices were also sharply higher than last year:

• New York Harbor conventional gasoline: $3.630 per gallon, up from $1.850 a year ago.

• New York Harbor No. 2 heating oil: $3.871 per gallon, up from $1.907 a year ago.

• New York Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel: $4.016 per gallon, up from $2.005 a year ago.

• Mont Belvieu propane: $0.884 per gallon, up from $0.731 a year ago.

Retail prices followed the same pattern. The national average price for regular gasoline rose to $4.452 per gallon on May 4, up 32.9 cents from the prior week and $1.305 above the year-ago price.

Diesel prices rose even more dramatically. The national average on-highway diesel price increased to $5.640 per gallon, up 28.9 cents from the previous week and $2.143 higher than one year earlier.

What This Means for the Market

This week’s report points to a tighter and more expensive petroleum market. Crude oil inventories remain slightly above the five-year average, but weekly stock draws, lower imports, firm refinery runs, and declining product inventories suggest that supply is not building comfortably.

The most important pressure point may be distillate fuel. Inventories are 11% below the five-year average, while distillate product supplied is running 3.5% above last year. That combination helps explain why diesel prices remain elevated and why businesses tied to freight, logistics, construction, farming, and manufacturing may continue to face high fuel costs.

Gasoline markets are also tightening as the summer driving season approaches. Inventories are below normal, demand is slightly higher than last year, and retail prices have jumped sharply.

Bottom Line

The May 1, 2026 petroleum report shows a market defined by falling inventories, resilient demand, strong refinery utilization, lower imports, and sharply higher prices.

Crude prices above $105 per barrel and national gasoline prices above $4.45 per gallon suggest that consumers and businesses are already feeling the impact. Unless supply improves or demand softens, fuel prices could remain under pressure heading into the summer travel season.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_05_06/pdf/highlights.pdf

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18 ticks potential profit in 24 seconds on 30 April 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 18 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 30 April 2026.

Natural gas (18 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Natural Gas Storage Builds Momentum Heading into Late Spring

The latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending April 24, 2026, offers a clear signal that the injection season is firmly underway. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states rose to 2,142 billion cubic feet (Bcf)—a 79 Bcf increase from the prior week.

Strong Weekly Injection Signals Seasonal Shift

This 79 Bcf build is a solid injection for late April, reflecting milder temperatures and reduced heating demand across much of the country. As the market transitions away from winter withdrawals, injections like this are expected to become more consistent in the weeks ahead.

Storage Levels Outpace Historical Benchmarks

Current inventory levels are notably strong:

• +116 Bcf higher than the same time last year

• +153 Bcf above the five-year average (1,989 Bcf)

Despite these surpluses, total working gas remains within the historical five-year range, suggesting that while supply is comfortable, it is not yet excessive.

Regional Breakdown: Broad-Based Increases

All major regions posted gains during the week:

• South Central led with a 26 Bcf injection, bringing total stocks to 905 Bcf

• Midwest added 25 Bcf, now at 429 Bcf

• East region increased by 23 Bcf, reaching 332 Bcf

• Mountain and Pacific regions each posted modest 3 Bcf builds

Within the South Central region:

• Salt storage rose by 9 Bcf

• Nonsalt storage increased by 18 Bcf

The relatively balanced distribution of injections suggests stable supply conditions nationwide, without any major regional constraints.

Market Implications

The above-average storage levels could exert downward pressure on natural gas prices in the near term, particularly if injections continue at a strong pace and demand remains moderate. However, several factors could shift this outlook:

• Early summer heat waves driving cooling demand

• LNG export levels

• Production trends and rig activity

For now, the market appears well-supplied heading into the warmer months.

Looking Ahead

With the next report scheduled for May 7, market participants will be watching closely to see whether injections maintain this pace. Sustained builds above historical norms could further widen the storage surplus, while any slowdown may tighten expectations heading into peak summer demand.

Overall, this report reinforces a familiar seasonal narrative: inventories are rebuilding efficiently, supply is ample, and the market is entering a period where weather will increasingly dictate direction.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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49 ticks potential profit in 81 seconds on 29 April 2026, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 49 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 29 April 2026.

Light sweet crude oil (49 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Energy Snapshot: What the Latest Petroleum Data Tells Us About Markets in 2026

The latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration offers a revealing look into the current state of the U.S. petroleum market. From rising crude prices to tightening inventories and shifting demand patterns, the data highlights a complex and dynamic energy landscape as we move deeper into 2026.

Refinery Activity Holds Steady—But Production Slips

U.S. refineries processed an average of 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending April 24, 2026. This marks a slight increase from the previous week, with refinery utilization hovering just under 90% of total capacity. While this suggests relatively stable operations, production figures tell a more nuanced story.

Gasoline production dipped to 9.8 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel output (including diesel and heating oil) also declined to 4.9 million barrels per day. These decreases could signal either maintenance cycles, reduced demand expectations, or tightening crude supply inputs.

Imports Down, Inventories Tightening

Crude oil imports fell notably, averaging 5.8 million barrels per day, down by 329,000 barrels from the previous week. Despite this drop, the four-week average remains slightly above last year’s levels.

Meanwhile, inventories are trending downward across the board:

• Crude oil inventories dropped by 6.2 million barrels, though they remain about 1% above the five-year average.

• Gasoline inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, now sitting 2% below the seasonal average.

• Distillate stocks declined by 4.5 million barrels, significantly 11% below the five-year average.

The consistent drawdowns suggest that supply is tightening, particularly for refined products, which could place upward pressure on prices if demand remains strong.

Demand Trends: Mixed Signals

Total petroleum products supplied—a proxy for demand—averaged 20.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, representing a 4.6% increase year-over-year.

Breaking it down:

• Gasoline demand rose modestly by 1.2%, reflecting steady consumer activity.

• Distillate demand jumped 4.8%, likely driven by industrial and freight sectors.

• Jet fuel demand, however, declined by 4.6%, hinting at possible softness in air travel or seasonal adjustments.

Prices Surge Across the Board

Perhaps the most striking development is the sharp rise in energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil climbed to $98.42 per barrel, up $12.51 in just one week and more than $34 higher than a year ago.

• Retail gasoline prices reached a national average of $4.123 per gallon, nearly a dollar higher than last year.

• Diesel prices, while slightly down week-over-week, remain elevated at $5.351 per gallon, up $1.84 year-over-year.

Spot prices for gasoline and heating oil at New York Harbor also saw significant weekly increases, reinforcing the broader upward trend.

What It All Means

The current data paints a picture of an energy market under pressure. Declining inventories, rising demand (especially for distillates), and reduced imports are converging to push prices higher. While refinery activity remains stable, the drop in production suggests that supply may not be keeping pace with consumption.

For consumers, this likely means continued high fuel costs in the near term. For businesses, especially those reliant on transportation or logistics, elevated diesel prices could impact margins. And for policymakers, the balance between energy security and market stability remains a critical challenge.

Final Thoughts

As global and domestic factors continue to influence the energy sector, weekly reports like this provide valuable insight into short-term trends and long-term trajectories. Whether you're an investor, policymaker, or everyday consumer, keeping an eye on these indicators can help you better understand—and prepare for—what lies ahead in the energy market.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_04_29/pdf/highlights.pdf

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