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EIA Petroleum Data: WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Product Draws Offset Crude Build

September 30, 2026

According to our analysis WTI crude oil moved 24 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 30 September 2026.

1790 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (24 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Sharp Product Draws Offset an Unexpected Crude Build

The September 30 EIA petroleum release delivered conflicting inventory signals: U.S. commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell substantially more than expected.

September 30, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • EIA Weekly Petroleum Data

The September 30 U.S. Energy Information Administration petroleum release presented professional commodity desks with a distinctly two-sided inventory signal.

Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 922,000 barrels during the week ending September 25, directly opposing expectations for an inventory draw.

The refined-product side of the balance sheet, however, told a very different story.

Gasoline inventories declined by approximately 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by approximately 2.3 million barrels. Both draws were significantly larger than market expectations.

HAAWKS release-window measurement: WTI crude oil moved approximately 24 ticks higher following the 10:30 a.m. ET release. The initial price response suggests that the market placed substantial weight on tightening refined-product inventories despite the unexpected build in crude.

Inventory Results vs. Market Expectations

Commercial Crude +0.922M Reuters expectation: −0.264M barrels

Gasoline −1.7M Reuters expectation: −0.485M

Distillates −2.3M Reuters expectation: −0.190M

WTI Reaction +24 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Petroleum Field	Market Expectation	EIA Actual	Surprise	Market Read-Through
Commercial Crude Oil	−0.264M barrels	+0.922M barrels	Build vs. expected draw	Negative for the crude balance in isolation.
Gasoline	−0.485M barrels	−1.7M barrels	Larger draw	Supportive product-market signal and substantially tighter than consensus.
Distillates	−0.190M barrels	−2.3M barrels	Much larger draw	Particularly relevant given already constrained diesel and heating-oil inventories.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	+0.553M barrels	Build	A negative counter-signal at the NYMEX WTI delivery hub.

WTI Moves 24 Ticks Higher

HAAWKS tick-level analysis recorded a rapid upward response in WTI immediately following the scheduled petroleum release.

+24 WTI Crude Oil Ticks

Measured during the immediate release window following the September 30, 2026 EIA petroleum data.

The move is notable because the crude inventory headline itself was weaker than expected.

A model reacting only to the commercial crude figure would have seen a 922,000-barrel build against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw. That represents a swing of almost 1.2 million barrels relative to consensus.

Yet WTI initially moved higher. The broader petroleum balance helps explain why.

The Product Draws Were the More Important Tightness Signal

Gasoline and distillates both delivered materially larger inventory draws than expected.

Gasoline stocks fell from approximately 206.0 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, a decline of about 1.7 million barrels.

Distillate inventories fell from approximately 107.4 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, a decline of roughly 2.3 million barrels.

The absolute stock levels are also relevant. Gasoline inventories remained approximately 7% below their five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories were approximately 14% below the five-year average.

HAAWKS view: the crude build weakened the upstream inventory signal, but the significantly larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate draws reinforced an already tight refined-product market. For WTI pricing, the complete petroleum balance carried more information than the crude headline alone.

Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories Fell 7 Million Barrels

Another important detail is that aggregate commercial petroleum stocks declined despite the rise in crude inventories.

EIA data showed total petroleum stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling from approximately 1.2514 billion barrels to 1.2443 billion barrels.

That represents a weekly decline of approximately 7.0 million barrels.

Inventory Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Commercial Crude	427.3M barrels	426.4M barrels	+0.9M
Gasoline	204.4M barrels	206.0M barrels	−1.7M
Distillates	105.2M barrels	107.4M barrels	−2.3M
Total Commercial Stocks ex-SPR	1,244.3M barrels	1,251.4M barrels	−7.0M

This is one reason the petroleum release should be evaluated as a multi-variable balance rather than as a single crude-inventory number.

Lower Refinery Runs Help Explain the Inventory Split

U.S. refinery activity slowed meaningfully during the reporting week.

Refinery crude inputs fell by approximately 554,000 barrels per day to 16.257 million barrels per day.

Refinery utilization declined by 1.5 percentage points to 92.5%.

This combination provides an important explanation for the apparently contradictory stock movements.

Lower refinery throughput reduces the amount of crude being processed, which can contribute to a build in crude stocks. At the same time, lower refinery output can tighten gasoline and distillate inventories.

Balance-sheet interpretation: the crude build and product draws were not independent events. Lower refinery runs provided a common mechanism linking the two sides of the report.

Cushing Added a Negative Counter-Signal

Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma increased by approximately 553,000 barrels.

EIA data put Cushing stocks at approximately 24.3 million barrels, up from about 23.7 million barrels one week earlier.

Cushing deserves separate attention because it is the designated delivery location for NYMEX WTI futures.

In this release, Cushing reinforced the negative crude-inventory signal, making the upward WTI response even more notable and highlighting the importance of the product-market data.

Crude Supply and Flow Data

The EIA overview also provided useful information on production, imports, exports and refinery demand.

U.S. Crude Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Domestic Production	13.955M b/d	13.939M b/d	+16K b/d
Crude Imports	5.698M b/d	5.877M b/d	−179K b/d
Crude Exports	3.570M b/d	3.281M b/d	+289K b/d
Net Crude Imports	2.128M b/d	2.596M b/d	−468K b/d
Refinery Crude Inputs	16.257M b/d	16.811M b/d	−554K b/d

Net crude imports fell substantially, while domestic production edged higher. However, the reduction in refinery demand was large enough to contribute to the commercial crude inventory build.

Product Supplied Remained Firm

Measures of petroleum products supplied also provided useful context for the tightening product balances.

Total products supplied averaged approximately 21.5 million barrels per day during the latest week.

On a four-week-average basis, total products supplied were approximately 20.8 million barrels per day, up 2.1% from the comparable period one year earlier.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY Change
Total Petroleum Products	21.500M b/d	20.779M b/d	+2.1%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.689M b/d	8.721M b/d	+0.3%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.948M b/d	3.776M b/d	+5.2%
Jet Fuel	1.809M b/d	1.761M b/d	+6.5%

The strong year-over-year increase in four-week distillate product supplied is particularly relevant given the low level of distillate inventories.

Why Could WTI Rise Despite an Unexpected Crude Build?

Product Draws Were Much Larger Than Expected

Gasoline and distillate inventories both tightened materially more than consensus anticipated, providing a strong offset to the crude build.

Distillate Stocks Were Already Tight

Distillate inventories stood roughly 14% below their five-year seasonal average, increasing the information value of another 2.3M-barrel draw.

Total Commercial Stocks Declined

Aggregate petroleum stocks excluding the SPR fell by approximately 7M barrels despite the commercial crude build.

Refining Activity Fell

Lower refinery runs helped explain both the crude build and the simultaneous tightening in product inventories.

The Crude Headline Alone Was Insufficient

The September 30 release demonstrates why high-frequency petroleum analysis requires simultaneous processing of multiple fields.

A crude-only framework would have classified the release negatively: stocks built when the market expected a draw, and Cushing inventories also increased.

A broader balance-sheet framework would immediately have identified substantial tightening in gasoline and distillates, falling refinery runs and a seven-million-barrel decline in total commercial petroleum inventories.

Professional market takeaway: petroleum releases are multi-dimensional. The first price response can reflect the interaction among crude, products, Cushing, refinery runs, trade flows and demand indicators rather than the sign of any single inventory field.

Release-Window Reaction vs. the Broader Oil Session

The measured 24-tick WTI increase represents the immediate response around the scheduled EIA release.

It should be separated from the broader daily oil move.

Crude prices were already trading higher amid continued concerns over Middle Eastern supply, while tightening U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories added support following the EIA data.

WTI ultimately settled at approximately $90.42 per barrel, up about $1.04 on the session.

The distinction matters for event attribution: the release-window movement isolates the market's response to the new petroleum data, while the full-session price reflects a much broader information set.

Implications for Low-Latency Commodity Strategies

Process the Entire Petroleum Balance

Crude, gasoline, distillates and Cushing can deliver conflicting signals. A robust system needs to parse them concurrently rather than sequentially.

Compare Actual Data with Consensus

The absolute direction of a stock change is not sufficient. The magnitude of the deviation from market expectations determines how much new information the release contains.

Preserve Relationships Between Fields

Lower refinery runs helped explain why crude inventories increased while refined-product stocks declined. Treating each field independently can miss these balance-sheet relationships.

Separate Absolute Stocks from Weekly Changes

Commercial crude stocks were above their seasonal five-year average, while gasoline and distillates remained below theirs. Stock levels and weekly changes therefore provided different signals.

Distinguish Release-Window Movement from Daily Performance

HAAWKS measurements focus on the immediate market response surrounding the official publication. They are not intended to represent the direction or magnitude of the entire trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 30 EIA petroleum release delivered a clear example of a mixed inventory report in which the crude headline did not determine the initial market direction.

Commercial crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw.

Cushing stocks also increased by approximately 553,000 barrels.

Yet gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels, both substantially exceeding expected draws.

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the SPR declined by approximately 7 million barrels, while refinery utilization fell to 92.5%.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 24-tick upward movement in WTI crude oil following the release.

For professional market participants, the release highlights the value of structured, low-latency access to the full petroleum data set. Crude inventories matter, but so do refined products, refinery activity, delivery-hub stocks, flows and implied demand.

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Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report, September 30, 2026
Official source for U.S. crude, gasoline, distillate, refinery, supply, inventory and product-supplied data.
Reuters — Oil Prices Rise on Tight Fuel Markets, September 30, 2026
Used for analyst expectations and broader post-release oil-market context.
Reuters via BOE Report — U.S. Crude Stocks Rise, Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Fall
Used for consensus estimates, Cushing inventories and refinery utilization context.
HAAWKS internal tick-level market analysis — September 30, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 24-tick upward WTI crude oil movement.

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Comment

September 2026 WASDE: Corn Jumps 52 Ticks, Wheat 32 and Soybeans 28

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis ZC moved 52 ticks, ZW moved 32 ticks and ZS moved 28 ticks (total: 112 ticks) on USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data on 11 September 2026.

1673 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

September WASDE Triggers Fast Grain Moves: Corn +52 Ticks, Wheat +32 and Soybeans +28

USDA cut the U.S. corn crop and tightened corn and soybean balances, while wheat delivered a more mixed global supply picture. CBOT grain futures reacted immediately to the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA WASDE

The September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates produced rapid moves across the major CBOT grain markets as traders processed new USDA forecasts for corn, wheat and soybeans.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 52-tick rise in corn futures (ZC), a 32-tick rise in wheat futures (ZW) and a 28-tick rise in soybean futures (ZS) following the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

The report contained very different signals across the three crops. Corn supplies tightened substantially compared with USDA's August projections. Soybean production increased, but stronger export demand reduced projected ending stocks. U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser.

HAAWKS first read: the initial futures reaction was higher across all three contracts, but the WASDE was not uniformly bullish relative to trade expectations. This is an important distinction for professional news traders: month-to-month USDA revisions and surprise versus consensus are two different signals.

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

CBOT Corn — ZC +52 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Wheat — ZW +32 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Soybeans — ZS +28 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Corn contained the clearest month-over-month tightening in the September report.

USDA reduced the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre, from 180.7 to 178.5 bpa.

Production was cut by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion bushels.

With lower beginning stocks and smaller production only partly offset by reduced feed demand, projected U.S. ending stocks fell from 1.653 billion to 1.567 billion bushels.

U.S. Corn	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	180.7 bpa	178.1 bpa	178.5 bpa	Large cut vs. August, but slightly above consensus.
Production	16.013B bu	15.768B bu	15.800B bu	213M-bushel USDA cut, but slightly above the trade average.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	1.653B bu	1.533B bu	1.567B bu	Tighter month over month, though not as tight as expected.
Season-Average Farm Price	$4.50/bu	—	$4.80/bu	USDA raised the price forecast by $0.30.

Corn takeaway: the balance sheet tightened substantially compared with August, which was supportive, but the headline yield, production and ending stocks figures were all slightly above pre-report trade averages. For a news trader, that makes the release more nuanced than simply calling the corn figures a bullish surprise.

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Soybeans delivered a mixed supply-and-demand signal.

USDA increased the soybean yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre and raised production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion bushels.

That increase in supply was more than absorbed by stronger demand. USDA raised projected soybean exports by 25 million bushels to approximately 1.685 billion bushels.

As a result, projected ending stocks actually declined from 320 million to 310 million bushels.

U.S. Soybeans	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	52.7 bpa	52.5 bpa	52.8 bpa	Higher than both August and the trade average.
Production	4.519B bu	4.492B bu	4.535B bu	Larger crop than traders expected.
Exports	1.660B bu	—	1.685B bu	USDA raised exports by 25M bushels.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	320M bu	289M bu	310M bu	Lower than August, but above the trade average.
Season-Average Farm Price	$11.40/bu	—	$12.00/bu	USDA raised its price projection by $0.60.

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Wheat was arguably the most interesting market response because the underlying WASDE changes were less supportive than the immediate 32-tick upward move might suggest.

USDA left aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use unchanged. Production remained at 1.531 billion bushels and ending stocks remained at 717 million bushels.

USDA did make changes within wheat classes. White wheat exports were raised by 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter exports were reduced by 15 million and Hard Red Spring exports by 5 million.

The season-average wheat price was increased by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel.

Globally, however, wheat supplies increased substantially. USDA raised production forecasts for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, while world ending stocks increased to approximately 276.3 million metric tons.

Wheat Measure	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
U.S. Production	1.531B bu	—	1.531B bu	Unchanged.
U.S. Ending Stocks	717M bu	720M bu	717M bu	Slightly below the average trade estimate.
World Ending Stocks	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	The clearest bearish supply surprise among the three crops.
U.S. Farm Price	$6.20/bu	—	$6.40/bu	Raised by $0.20.

Wheat takeaway: the immediate 32-tick ZW rally should not be interpreted as proof that the WASDE itself was fundamentally bullish for wheat. Global wheat supplies and ending stocks increased, while the U.S. balance was essentially unchanged. Positioning, order flow and the interaction of multiple USDA data points can matter during the first seconds after a major agricultural release.

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

The global balance sheets provided an important counterweight to the tighter U.S. corn and soybean figures.

2026/27 Global Ending Stocks	August USDA	Trade Estimate	September USDA	Signal vs. Consensus
Corn	274.7 MMT	about 271.9 MMT	272.1 MMT	Much tighter vs. August, but slightly above expectations.
Soybeans	124.2 MMT	about 123.1 MMT	124.0 MMT	Slightly tighter month over month, but above consensus.
Wheat	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	Significantly above expectations.

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

WASDE is not one number. Yield, production, exports, domestic use, ending stocks, global stocks and price forecasts arrive together. Different trading models may assign different weights to each field.

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Corn production fell by 213M bushels from USDA's August estimate, while U.S. corn ending stocks declined by 86M bushels. Those are substantial directional changes even though the final figures were slightly above trade consensus.

Consensus Matters Too

Professional traders also compare the published figures with pre-report expectations. A number can tighten relative to last month and still be less bullish than traders anticipated.

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Futures prices reflect existing positions as well as fundamentals. Stop orders, hedging flows, spread positions and thin liquidity immediately after a release can amplify short-duration moves.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

The HAAWKS measurements describe the immediate release-window reaction. They should not be confused with the direction of grain futures over the entire trading day.

HAAWKS recorded upward moves of 52 ticks in ZC, 32 ticks in ZW and 28 ticks in ZS following the USDA release.

Later in the session, grain markets reassessed the complete balance sheets. CME noted that corn and soybean futures ultimately finished the week lower, illustrating how an initial data-release move can differ from the subsequent market trend.

News-trader takeaway: release-window trading measures how prices respond when new information first enters the market. Later price action reflects additional interpretation, positioning, liquidity and broader market factors.

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

Unlike a simple one-number economic release, WASDE contains hundreds of interconnected supply-and-demand fields. A professional system needs to identify which numbers changed and which differences matter most.

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

U.S. corn supplies tightened materially while world corn stocks still came in slightly above expectations. Wheat provided an even clearer example: U.S. ending stocks were slightly below the trade average, while world stocks were sharply above it.

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Comparing September with August tells a trader how USDA changed its fundamental outlook. Comparing September with market expectations tells a trader how surprising the new information actually was.

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Receiving the report quickly is valuable, but an automated system must also correctly map the crop, marketing year, country, unit and balance sheet field before acting.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 52-, 32- and 28-tick figures represent historical measured price movement. Actual results depend on market depth, latency, spread, slippage, execution venue, order type and risk management.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 2026 WASDE triggered rapid price movement across all three major CBOT grain contracts monitored by HAAWKS.

HAAWKS measured approximately 52 ticks higher in corn futures, 32 ticks higher in wheat futures and 28 ticks higher in soybeans in the immediate release window.

Corn showed the clearest month-over-month tightening. USDA cut the national yield to 178.5 bpa, lowered production by 213 million bushels and reduced projected ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels.

Soybean production increased to 4.535 billion bushels, but higher exports reduced ending stocks to 310 million bushels.

U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser and world ending stocks rose to roughly 276.3 million metric tons.

The release therefore provides an important lesson for professional news traders: the initial price reaction cannot always be explained by one headline number or even by a simple bullish-versus-bearish label.

Low-latency access to structured USDA data allows trading systems to compare many fields simultaneously — current values, previous estimates, consensus expectations and global balances — while the market is still repricing.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

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HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered via API access in Chicago, New York and London for professional and latency-sensitive news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

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Sources

USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 11, 2026
Official source for U.S. and world corn, wheat and soybean supply-and-demand forecasts.
USDA — WASDE Report
Official WASDE publication page and release schedule.
Price Futures Group — September 11 Grain Report
Reproduces the pre-report analyst averages and ranges for U.S. production, yield and ending stocks used in this analysis.
DTN — USDA Lowers Corn Yield 2.2 BPA, Slightly Increases Soy Yield
Independent post-release analysis of the September WASDE and Crop Production reports.
CME Group — Corn and Soybean Futures React to Latest WASDE Estimates
Used for broader post-release grain-market context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate market reactions: ZC +52 ticks, ZW +32 ticks and ZS +28 ticks.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

EIA Petroleum Report Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

September 10, 2026

According to our analysis crude oil moved 39 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 10 September 2026.

1513 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Early EIA Petroleum Data Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

The market reacted to EIA's early Weekly Petroleum Status Report data before publication of the full report, as a smaller-than-expected crude draw and surprise gasoline and distillate builds delivered a bearish inventory signal.

September 10, 2026 • Early release: 12:00 p.m. ET • WTI Crude Oil

On September 10, 2026, WTI crude oil reacted immediately when the first EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report data became available at 12:00 p.m. ET — before publication of the complete report later in the day.

The early EIA overview and petroleum tables already contained the high-value fields news traders needed to assess the release: commercial crude stocks, gasoline, distillates, Cushing inventories, refinery inputs and utilization, production, imports, exports and product supplied.

Commercial crude stocks declined by only 391,000 barrels, substantially less than the approximately 1.55 million-barrel draw expected in a Reuters analyst survey.

At the same time, gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly increased, reinforcing the initial bearish interpretation.

HAAWKS release-window analysis: the early petroleum data triggered approximately 30 ticks of downside movement in WTI crude oil. The price reaction occurred before traders needed to wait for the complete WPSR PDF and HTML publication.

Why the Early EIA Release Matters to News Traders

The important distinction: EIA does not require traders to wait for the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report before key petroleum statistics become available.

The early release includes the WPSR summary, overview and core statistical tables. The remaining full-report PDF and HTML material is published later.

For traditional analysis, waiting for the complete report may make little difference. For latency-sensitive news trading, however, the distinction is critical.

The market can begin repricing as soon as the key inventory and supply fields become public. By the time a trader manually opens and reads the complete report, part of the initial market reaction may already have taken place.

HAAWKS view: for WPSR news trading, the relevant event is the first public dissemination of the market-moving data — not the later appearance of the full formatted report.

Key Inventory Surprises at 12:00 p.m. ET

Commercial Crude −0.391M Reuters estimate: −1.55M barrels

Gasoline +1.269M StreetInsider estimate: −1.09M

Distillates +2.087M StreetInsider estimate: −0.632M

Cushing −0.684M WTI delivery hub

Inventory Field	Market Estimate	Actual	Surprise	News-Trader Read
Commercial Crude Oil	−1.55M Reuters survey	−0.391M	Smaller draw	Bearish relative to expectations despite the negative headline inventory change.
Gasoline	−1.09M StreetInsider estimate	+1.269M	Build vs. expected draw	A large bearish swing relative to expectations.
Distillates	−0.632M StreetInsider estimate	+2.087M	Build vs. expected draw	Another clear bearish product-inventory surprise.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	−0.684M	Draw	A bullish counter-signal because Cushing is the delivery point for NYMEX WTI futures.

WTI Falls 30 Ticks on the Early Data

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis recorded an immediate downside reaction as the petroleum figures entered the market.

30 WTI Crude Oil Ticks Lower

HAAWKS measured the move following the 12:00 p.m. ET early EIA petroleum-data release on September 10, 2026.

The reaction illustrates an important principle in petroleum news trading: a negative crude-stock number is not automatically bullish.

What matters is the difference between the actual data and what the market had already priced in.

Traders expected a materially larger crude draw. Instead, inventories fell by only 391,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillates simultaneously moved in the opposite direction from expectations and posted inventory builds.

What Was Already Available in the Early Overview?

The early EIA overview contained considerably more information than the three headline inventory figures.

Early-Release Data Point	Current Week	Previous Week	Change / Context
Commercial Crude Stocks	424.1M barrels	424.5M barrels	Approximately −0.4M barrels
Cushing Crude Stocks	21.8M barrels	22.5M barrels	Approximately −0.7M barrels
Gasoline Stocks	206.9M barrels	205.7M barrels	Approximately +1.3M barrels
Distillate Stocks	106.3M barrels	104.2M barrels	Approximately +2.1M barrels
Total Commercial Petroleum Stocks Ex-SPR	1,248.6M barrels	1,242.3M barrels	+6.3M barrels
Refinery Crude Inputs	17.586M b/d	17.496M b/d	+91K b/d
Refinery Utilization	97.8%	98.0%	Refineries remained near very high utilization levels.
U.S. Crude Production	13.947M b/d	13.862M b/d	+85K b/d

In other words, a news-trading system did not need the later full report to know that crude inventories disappointed expectations, product inventories built, Cushing drew, refinery utilization remained very high and U.S. crude production increased.

Imports, Exports and Supply Added More Context

The early overview also showed a material change in crude trade flows.

Crude Supply Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Crude Imports	6.824M b/d	6.770M b/d	+53K b/d
Crude Exports	3.417M b/d	4.483M b/d	−1.066M b/d
Net Crude Imports	3.407M b/d	2.287M b/d	+1.119M b/d

The large decline in crude exports and increase in net imports helped explain why domestic commercial crude stocks registered only a small draw despite exceptionally high refinery runs.

Demand Indicators Were Also Available Before the Full Report

The overview included product-supplied statistics, giving news traders an immediate view of implied petroleum demand.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY
Total Products	19.313M b/d	20.119M b/d	−3.7%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.551M b/d	8.801M b/d	−1.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.678M b/d	3.715M b/d	−2.6%
Jet Fuel	1.785M b/d	1.731M b/d	−2.3%

Why the Initial WTI Signal Was Bearish

Crude Drew Less Than Expected

The market expected a substantially larger decline in commercial crude stocks. A 391K draw was therefore bearish relative to the consensus expectation despite being a draw in absolute terms.

Gasoline Swung to a Build

Gasoline inventories increased by approximately 1.27M barrels versus expectations for a decline. That created one of the clearest bearish surprises in the early data.

Distillates Also Built

Distillate inventories increased by approximately 2.09M barrels rather than posting the expected draw, reinforcing the product-side bearish signal.

Total Commercial Stocks Rose

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 6.3M barrels during the week, providing broader evidence of inventory accumulation.

But the Release Was Not Bearish in Every Detail

Professional news traders also had to process several opposing signals.

Cushing inventories fell by approximately 684,000 barrels, which was supportive for WTI because Cushing is the NYMEX crude futures delivery point.

Refineries were also operating at a very high 97.8% utilization rate, with crude inputs of 17.586 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, early EIA summary information showed gasoline and distillate inventories still below their respective five-year seasonal averages despite the week's builds.

HAAWKS view: the dominant immediate surprise was bearish because crude missed the expected draw and both major refined-product categories built. However, the Cushing draw and historically tight product inventories provided counter-signals that a complete trading model should not ignore.

What This Release Shows Professional News Traders

The Market Does Not Wait for the Full PDF

The key trading information was already public in the early overview, summary and statistical tables. The later complete report added presentation and additional context, but the principal inventory surprises were already available to the market.

Machine-Readable Fields Matter

A WPSR strategy may need to process crude inventories, Cushing stocks, gasoline, distillates, production, refinery utilization, imports, exports and product supplied at virtually the same time.

Consensus Is Essential

A crude draw is not automatically bullish. The 391K decline was bearish relative to expectations because traders had positioned for a much larger draw.

Different Fields Can Conflict

National crude and product inventories produced a bearish initial signal, while Cushing inventories produced a bullish one. News traders need rules for weighting conflicting data rather than reacting to only one field.

Low Latency Is About the First Public Data

For latency-sensitive trading, the relevant workflow begins when the earliest official data become available. Waiting for a later formatted report can mean waiting until after the first market repricing has already occurred.

The 30-Tick Reaction Was Not the Full-Day Oil Story

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of downside WTI movement in response to the early EIA data.

That should be separated from the broader September 10 oil session. Global crude prices were simultaneously being driven by severe geopolitical supply risks.

WTI ultimately settled above $100 per barrel and rose more than 6% on the day as attacks on shipping and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure increased concerns about global supply disruptions.

News-trading distinction: a release-window move measures the immediate repricing caused by a specific data event. It does not necessarily predict the direction of the market for the remainder of the trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 10 EIA release provides a useful example of why publication timing matters for professional news traders.

The market-moving petroleum data were available at 12:00 p.m. ET, before publication of the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Commercial crude stocks declined by 391,000 barrels, considerably less than expected. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.269 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 2.087 million barrels.

Total commercial petroleum stocks excluding the SPR increased by 6.3 million barrels, while Cushing crude stocks provided a counter-signal with a roughly 684,000-barrel draw.

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of immediate downside movement in WTI crude oil following the early release.

For professional news traders, the lesson is straightforward: the trading event begins when the first official machine-readable information enters the market — not when the complete report becomes convenient to read manually.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Low-Latency Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered in structured machine-readable format via API access in Chicago, New York and London, supporting professional and latency-sensitive automated news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Official EIA source for the September 10, 2026 petroleum data covering the week ending September 4.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report Release Schedule
EIA publication schedule explaining the earlier release of the WPSR summary, overview and core tables ahead of the remaining full-report PDF and HTML files.
Reuters — September 10, 2026 Oil Market Report
Source for the Reuters analyst expectation of a 1.55M-barrel crude draw and broader oil-market context.
StreetInsider — EIA Inventory Release, September 10, 2026
Timestamped at 12:00 p.m. EDT and used for the product inventory consensus estimates: gasoline −1.09M barrels and distillates −0.632M barrels.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 10, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 30-tick WTI crude oil reaction.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

August 10, 2026

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

HAAWKS is introducing seven new machine-readable CES benchmark revision data points as research shows U.S. payroll benchmark revisions have become materially larger in recent years.

HAAWKS G4A CES benchmark revisions research showing seven new machine-readable data points and larger U.S. payroll revisions in 2024 and 2025

HAAWKS Research

New G4A Data Points

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: Why Payroll Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

Ahead of the August 28, 2026 preliminary CES benchmark release, HAAWKS is expanding its low-latency machine-readable U.S. labor-market coverage with seven new benchmark-revision data points.

August 2026 • 7 new machine-readable data points • CES Benchmark Revisions

HAAWKS G4A will introduce machine-readable coverage of the Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark Revision and the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, giving professional news traders direct access to some of the most important annual revisions to U.S. payroll employment data.

Most news traders know the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. Fewer focus on the annual benchmark process that determines how closely the sample-based Current Employment Statistics estimates match more comprehensive employment counts.

That benchmark process has become increasingly relevant. HAAWKS research covering the 2016–2025 preliminary benchmark revisions shows that the magnitude of the revisions has increased materially in recent years, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Next release: BLS is scheduled to publish the March 2026 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision on Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary announcement does not immediately revise the official monthly CES employment series.

Seven New HAAWKS G4A Data Points

HAAWKS will initially disseminate two machine-readable fields from the preliminary benchmark release and five fields from the annual benchmark revision.

CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision Next release: August 28, 2026 — 10:00 a.m. ET

2 New Data Points

Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the current year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.

CES Annual Benchmark Revision Next release: February 2027 — exact BLS date pending

5 New Data Points

Total nonfarm employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment benchmark revision, March of the prior year, not seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total nonfarm employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total private employment annual revision, March of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands.
Total nonfarm employment annual revision, December of the prior year, seasonally adjusted, thousands, observation status preliminary.

BLS has confirmed that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be incorporated with the January 2027 Employment Situation release in February 2027. The exact release date has not yet been published on the official BLS calendar.

What Is a CES Benchmark Revision?

The monthly Current Employment Statistics survey estimates payroll employment from a sample of businesses and government agencies. Each year, those estimates are benchmarked against more comprehensive employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW.

QCEW counts are derived primarily from state unemployment-insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. BLS defines the benchmark revision as the difference between the March universe count and the corresponding sample-based CES employment estimate, after accounting for changes in employment scope.

Important for news traders: a preliminary benchmark revision is not the same thing as a monthly NFP revision and it is not a direct estimate of how many jobs were created during the year. It is a revision to the estimated March employment level.

Preliminary Does Not Mean the Monthly Series Changes Immediately

The August preliminary release provides an early estimate of the benchmark difference, but BLS does not immediately rewrite the official CES monthly employment series using that number.

The benchmark is incorporated later as part of the annual benchmark process. This distinction is particularly important for automated news trading systems: the preliminary benchmark is new information about the estimated employment level, while the later annual release actually incorporates benchmark and seasonal-adjustment changes into the historical CES series.

The 2025 benchmark provides a useful example. In September 2025, BLS estimated a preliminary total nonfarm revision of −911,000 jobs, or −0.6%, for March 2025. When the annual benchmark was incorporated in February 2026, the final not-seasonally-adjusted March revision was −862,000, or −0.5%. The seasonally adjusted March employment level was revised by −898,000.

In other words, the preliminary release can provide a powerful signal, but news traders also need to distinguish it from the later official benchmarked series.

HAAWKS Research: Preliminary Revisions 2016–2025

HAAWKS reviewed 10 years of national preliminary CES benchmark revisions. Negative figures indicate that the previously published CES employment level was above the preliminary benchmark estimate.

Benchmark Year	Total Nonfarm Revision	Total Nonfarm %	Total Private Revision	Total Private %
2016	−150K	−0.1%	−224K	−0.2%
2017	+95K	+0.1%	+98K	+0.1%
2018	+43K	<+0.05%	−17K	<−0.05%
2019	−501K	−0.3%	−514K	−0.4%
2020	−173K	−0.1%	−229K	−0.2%
2021	−166K	−0.1%	−421K	−0.3%
2022	+462K	+0.3%	+571K	+0.4%
2023	−306K	−0.2%	−358K	−0.3%
2024	−818K	−0.5%	−819K	−0.6%
2025	−911K	−0.6%	−880K	−0.7%

The two largest preliminary revisions in the 10-year sample occurred in 2024 and 2025 for both total nonfarm and total private employment.

Revision Magnitudes Have Increased Recently

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.12% First five-year window

Nonfarm Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.34% 2.83× the prior window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2016–2020 0.18% First five-year window

Private Mean Absolute Revision 2021–2025 0.46% 2.56× the prior window

Statistic, 2016–2025	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Mean Signed Revision	−0.15%	−0.22%
Mean Absolute Revision	0.23%	0.32%
Median Absolute Revision	0.15%	0.30%
Sample Standard Deviation	0.27 percentage points	0.33 percentage points
Mean Absolute Revision, 2016–2020	0.12%	0.18%
Mean Absolute Revision, 2021–2025	0.34%	0.46%
Increase Between Five-Year Windows	2.83×	2.56×
Largest Absolute Revision	0.6% — 2025	0.7% — 2025
Second Largest	0.5% — 2024	0.6% — 2024

Is the Increase Statistically Significant?

HAAWKS also tested whether the absolute size of preliminary revisions has been trending upward over the full 2016–2025 period.

Simple Linear Trend	Total Nonfarm	Total Private
Increase Per Year	+0.050 percentage points	+0.058 percentage points
R²	0.61	0.67
p-value	0.007	0.004
95% Confidence Interval	+0.018 to +0.083 points/year	+0.025 to +0.091 points/year

On the complete 10-year sample, the upward trend in absolute revision size is statistically detectable.

However, there is an important qualification: the result is heavily influenced by the exceptionally large revisions in 2024 and 2025. Removing those two years causes the trend to lose conventional statistical significance.

Excluding 2024 and 2025: the trend-test p-value rises to 0.217 for total nonfarm and 0.115 for total private. The evidence therefore supports a recent increase in revision magnitude rather than a smooth, firmly established long-term trend.

Direction of the Revisions

Total Nonfarm

Seven of the 10 preliminary benchmark years were negative, two were positive and one was effectively near zero in percentage terms. The last three observations — 2023, 2024 and 2025 — were all negative.

Total Private

Eight of the 10 revisions were negative, including the very small −17,000 revision in 2018, while only 2017 and 2022 were positive. The largest negative percentage revision was −0.7% in 2025.

Why Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

They Can Change the Employment Narrative

A large negative benchmark estimate can indicate that previously published payroll employment levels overstated the underlying employment count, potentially changing how traders assess labor market momentum.

They Can Affect Fed Expectations

Labor-market strength is a major input into monetary-policy expectations. A materially different benchmark can therefore affect the market's interpretation of the employment outlook and the expected path of interest rates.

The Preliminary Release Is a Separate Event

The August preliminary benchmark is released independently from the normal 8:30 a.m. monthly NFP release. For 2026, the national preliminary benchmark is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on August 28.

The Annual Release Arrives With NFP

The final annual benchmark is incorporated with the January Employment Situation in February. News-trading systems therefore need to distinguish current-month payroll data from benchmark and historical-revision fields arriving in the same release.

HAAWKS view: benchmark data deserve their own structured fields. A large benchmark revision can change the historical employment picture even when the current monthly NFP headline receives most of the attention. For low-latency news traders, identifying the exact field, observation period, seasonal-adjustment status and preliminary or final status is essential.

Preliminary vs. Annual Benchmark: What Traders Need to Distinguish

Feature	Preliminary Benchmark	Annual / Final Benchmark
Typical Timing	Late August / early September	February with January Employment Situation
Key Reference Month	March	March, plus revised historical monthly series
Preliminary Release Updates Official CES Series?	No	Yes
HAAWKS Initial Coverage	2 machine-readable fields	5 machine-readable fields
News-Trading Focus	Size and direction of the preliminary benchmark difference	Final benchmark plus revised seasonally adjusted employment levels

HAAWKS Conclusion

HAAWKS is adding seven machine-readable CES benchmark-revision data points to expand G4A coverage of the U.S. labor market beyond the standard monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Two fields will cover the annual CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision, beginning with the March 2026 benchmark scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Five additional fields will cover the subsequent CES Annual Benchmark Revision, including March benchmark revisions and seasonally adjusted March and December employment revisions.

The historical evidence explains why these numbers deserve attention. From 2016–2020, the average absolute preliminary total-nonfarm revision was only 0.12%. In 2021–2025, it increased to 0.34%. For total private employment, the corresponding increase was from 0.18% to 0.46%.

The 2024 and 2025 revisions were unusually large, so the evidence should not be interpreted as proof that revisions will continue increasing each year. It does, however, demonstrate that benchmark releases can contain economically significant information and should not be overlooked by professional news traders.

For latency-sensitive strategies, the challenge is not merely receiving the release quickly. It is receiving each data point with the correct reference period, seasonal-adjustment status, units and observation status in a structured format that can be processed immediately.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

New CES Benchmark Data Coming to HAAWKS G4A

HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data for professional news traders. The new CES benchmark fields expand our coverage of U.S. labor-market releases and will be available through the same machine-readable API infrastructure.

HAAWKS G4A data is available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professionals.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources & Methodology

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics
Official CES program page and current release schedule.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — 2026 Release Calendar
Confirms the March 2026 national preliminary CES benchmark release for August 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark
Official preliminary benchmark release, methodology and benchmark revision tables.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Technical Notes for the CES National Benchmark
Used for benchmark definitions, historical benchmark information and methodology.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — January 2026 Employment Situation
Used for the final March 2025 benchmark revision and the annual incorporation of benchmarked CES data.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Current Employment Situation
Confirms that the final March 2026 benchmark revision will be issued with the January 2027 Employment Situation in February 2027.
HAAWKS Research — CES Preliminary Benchmark Revisions, 2016–2025
Historical preliminary benchmark figures compiled from BLS preliminary benchmark announcements and contemporaneous archived releases. Statistical calculations use the preliminary March not-seasonally-adjusted percentage revisions. Revisions reported by BLS as less than 0.05% in absolute magnitude for 2018 were encoded as 0.0% for percentage-based statistical calculations.

Comment

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points for Agricultural Markets

July 18, 2026

HAAWKS Launches 40 Weekly USDA Export Sales Data Points

HAAWKS announcement for 40 weekly USDA Export Sales data points covering wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice.

On Thursday, July 16, 2026, HAAWKS expanded its agricultural market coverage with the launch of 40 structured data points from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.

Published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET throughout the year, the report provides one of the most timely official indicators of international demand for U.S. agricultural commodities.

The new HAAWKS dataset covers weekly net export sales for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice, with separate values for the current and next marketing years.

Unlike reports released after agricultural markets have closed, the Weekly Export Sales Report is published while the principal futures contracts are actively trading. This makes speed, accurate normalization, and machine-readable delivery especially important for algorithmic and event-driven market participants.

What HAAWKS Delivers

HAAWKS will disseminate 40 data points covering five major commodity groups and their relevant product classifications.

  
          Commodity
        
          Data Coverage
        
          Wheat

          Various types and classes
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Corn
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Soybeans

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Cotton

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year
        
          Rice

          Various types
        
          Net sales for the current marketing year and next marketing year

The individual product and commodity classifications provide more detailed information than a single headline export-sales figure. This allows users to identify differences in demand across crop types, qualities, and delivery periods.

Why Weekly Export Sales Matter

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report provides a current view of overseas demand for U.S. agricultural products.

Strong net sales may indicate improving international demand, increased forward purchasing, or progress toward USDA full-year export projections. Weak sales, cancellations, or net reductions may point to softer demand, changing destination activity, or stronger competition from other exporting countries.

However, the market does not react only to whether sales appear high or low.

The most important signal is frequently the difference between the reported value and what market participants expected before the release.

A weekly corn export-sales figure may be supportive if it exceeds expectations, but the same figure may be disappointing if traders anticipated an even larger result.

For systematic analysis, the core event signal can be expressed as:

Export-sales surprise = reported net sales − expected net sales

The size and direction of that surprise can then be assessed alongside:

The previous reporting week
Recent weekly averages
Seasonal export patterns
Outstanding export commitments
Reported cancellations
Major destination activity
Progress toward USDA export projections
Current and next marketing year allocations

Current and Next Marketing Year Sales

HAAWKS provides separate data points for the current marketing year and the next marketing year.

Current marketing year net sales represent new commitments, adjustments, and cancellations for delivery during the active marketing year. These figures are particularly relevant to near-term demand and the pace required to meet annual export forecasts.

Next marketing year net sales represent forward commitments for delivery after the current marketing year ends. They can provide an early indication of demand for the upcoming crop cycle and may become increasingly important as the current marketing year approaches its conclusion.

Separating the two periods helps traders and analysts distinguish immediate demand from longer-term purchasing activity.

It also prevents a large next-year sale from being interpreted as an equally strong signal for nearby supply and demand conditions.

What Are Net Export Sales?

Net export sales represent newly reported sales after accounting for cancellations, reductions, destination changes, and other adjustments.

A positive number generally indicates that new sales exceeded cancellations and reductions during the reporting period.

A negative number can occur when cancellations or downward adjustments are larger than newly reported sales.

Net sales are therefore not the same as physical exports or shipments. A sale represents a commitment, while an export represents the physical movement of the commodity.

For a complete demand assessment, traders may compare net sales with:

Physical exports
Outstanding sales
Accumulated exports
Destination-level activity
Historical seasonal patterns
USDA annual export forecasts

Released During Active Futures Trading

The report is published every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET while major agricultural futures markets are open.

CME grain and oilseed futures, including corn, soybeans, and wheat, continue trading until 8:45 AM ET during the overnight session. Trading then pauses before the main daytime session begins at 9:30 AM ET.

ICE Cotton No. 2 futures are also actively trading at 8:30 AM ET.

This creates two important reaction windows.

  
          Time
        
          Market Event
        
          Relevance
        
          8:30 AM ET
        
          USDA Weekly Export Sales Report released
        
          Immediate data ingestion and event detection
        
          8:30–8:45 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed futures remain open
        
          Initial algorithmic price discovery
        
          8:45–9:30 AM ET
        
          CME grain and oilseed trading pause
        
          Further analysis and order preparation
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          CME daytime session begins
        
          Broader liquidity and potential follow-through
        
          9:30 AM ET
        
          Regular U.S. stock and ETF trading begins
        
          Potential reaction in related listed instruments

The 15-minute period between the report release and the end of the overnight CME session is especially relevant for automated traders.

During this window, systems can ingest the new figures, compare them with expectations, identify material surprises, apply risk controls, and generate trading signals while the underlying futures remain tradable.

Directly Relevant Markets

The data is most directly relevant to futures and options linked to the commodities included in the report:

CBOT corn futures and options
CBOT soybean futures and options
CBOT wheat futures and options
KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
CBOT rough rice futures and options

The report may also be relevant to related commodity spreads and processing relationships, including soybean crush components and differences among wheat classes.

The strength of the market reaction depends on more than the headline figure. It can also be affected by the reporting period, destination, size of revisions or cancellations, seasonal demand, existing positioning, liquidity, and whether the result was already anticipated.

Designed for Algorithmic Trading Workflows

Many HAAWKS clients consume market news through automated or algorithmic systems rather than by manually reading and interpreting reports.

For these users, an official report published as a document or web page must first be converted into standardized fields before it can be used reliably.

HAAWKS transforms the USDA release into structured data points designed for systematic consumption.

The dataset can support workflows such as:

Real-time event detection
Automated estimate comparison
Surprise calculation
Commodity and product classification
Current-year and next-year separation
Cancellation and net-reduction detection
Historical event analysis
Quantitative model inputs
Automated alerts
Trading signal generation
Risk-management checks
Dashboard and API integration

Consistent field definitions are particularly important when the same report contains numerous commodities, product types, marketing years, destinations, and adjustments.

By normalizing the data, HAAWKS allows systems to compare each new observation with prior releases without repeatedly interpreting the underlying report structure.

From Release to Market Signal

An algorithmic workflow may process the report in several stages:

Receive the structured HAAWKS data.
Validate the commodity, product type, and marketing year.
Compare the reported figure with the expected value.
Calculate the size and direction of the surprise.
Compare the result with prior weeks and historical ranges.
Apply commodity-specific signal thresholds.
Check liquidity, market conditions, and risk limits.
Generate an alert, analytical output, or trading instruction.

Not every statistical surprise creates a meaningful price move.

A large soybean sales figure, for example, may have limited impact if it was widely expected or if it reflects a previously announced transaction. Conversely, an unexpected cancellation or net reduction may matter even when the absolute weekly figure appears relatively small.

The HAAWKS dataset provides the structured inputs needed for users to make those distinctions within their own models and strategies.

More Than a Headline Figure

The detailed structure of the Weekly Export Sales Report helps users look beyond aggregate demand.

Important questions include:

Which commodity or product class was sold?
Does the sale apply to the current or next marketing year?
Were previous commitments cancelled or reduced?
Which destinations were involved?
Are sales concentrated among one or several buyers?
How does the result compare with the pace needed to meet USDA projections?
Are reported commitments translating into physical exports?
Is one commodity class performing differently from another?

For wheat, cotton, rice, and soybeans, product-level differences can be particularly important. Strong demand for one class or type does not necessarily imply equally strong demand for the broader commodity category.

Expanding HAAWKS Agricultural Coverage

The addition of USDA Weekly Export Sales data strengthens HAAWKS’ coverage of both the demand and supply sides of agricultural markets.

USDA Crop Progress data provides insight into planting, crop development, condition, and harvest activity.

USDA Export Sales data provides insight into international demand, cancellations, and forward purchasing commitments.

Together, the datasets help users monitor how U.S. production conditions interact with global demand throughout the agricultural cycle.

By delivering official USDA information in a clean, structured, and machine-readable format, HAAWKS helps traders and analysts move more efficiently from report publication to systematic market analysis.

For algorithmic participants, that means receiving structured data while the directly relevant futures markets are still trading.

Sources

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Export Sales Reporting Program
Official information about the reporting program and the Thursday 8:30 AM ET release schedule.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Weekly Export Sales
Official weekly reports and downloadable export-sales data.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports
CME Group — Corn Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT corn futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
CME Group — Soybean Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT soybean futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/oilseeds/soybean.html
CME Group — Chicago Wheat Futures
Contract information and trading hours for CBOT wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/wheat.html
CME Group — KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Contract information for KC HRW wheat futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/kc-wheat.html
CME Group — Rough Rice Futures
Contract information and trading hours for rough rice futures.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/rough-rice.html
ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
Official contract specifications and trading hours.
https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Comment

Natural Gas Futures Drop 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds After EIA Storage Report

July 18, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 16 July 2026.

1298 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Natural Gas Storage Build Triggers a 39-Tick Selloff in 11 Seconds

U.S. natural gas futures reacted sharply after the EIA reported a 41 Bcf storage injection, with the market looking beyond the slightly smaller-than-expected build to focus on abundant inventories and strong domestic production.

July 16, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • Week ending July 10, 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that working natural gas inventories increased by 41 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 10, bringing total Lower 48 storage to 3,024 Bcf.

The build was slightly smaller than the Reuters analyst consensus of 43 Bcf and below the five-year average injection of 45 Bcf. Despite the modestly tighter weekly flow, natural gas sold off immediately after the release.

HAAWKS first read: The market did not treat the smaller-than-expected injection as a sustainable bullish signal. Traders instead focused on inventories remaining 6.4% above the five-year average, rising production and softer LNG feedgas demand.

Storage Report at a Glance

Weekly Injection +41 Bcf Reuters consensus: +43 Bcf

Total Storage 3,024 Bcf Lower 48 working gas

vs. Five-Year Average +181 Bcf 6.4% above average

vs. One Year Ago −21 Bcf 0.7% below last year

Weekly natural gas storage report compared with forecasts and historical levels
Storage Indicator	Reported	Comparison	HAAWKS Read-through
Weekly Net Change	+41 Bcf	Reuters forecast: +43 Bcf	The injection was 2 Bcf below consensus, representing a slightly tighter weekly result than expected.
Five-Year Average Injection	+45 Bcf	Actual was 4 Bcf smaller	The weekly flow was below normal, but the total inventory surplus remained substantial.
Total Working Gas	3,024 Bcf	3,045 Bcf one year ago	Inventories were 21 Bcf, or 0.7%, below the comparable year-earlier level.
Five-Year Average Stocks	2,843 Bcf	Current stocks: +181 Bcf	The 6.4% storage surplus continued to provide a bearish buffer against weather-driven demand.

Immediate Market Reaction

39 Ticks Lower

Natural Gas Fell 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds

The HAAWKS tick chart recorded an immediate 39-tick decline in natural gas within the first 11 seconds following the 10:30 a.m. ET storage release. The speed of the move showed that the market interpreted the broader storage and supply backdrop as bearish, despite the injection coming in slightly below expectations.

Natural gas market reaction following the weekly EIA storage report
Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Initial Direction	Interpretation
Natural Gas	39 ticks	11 seconds	Lower	Immediate selling indicated that surplus inventories and broader supply conditions outweighed the slightly smaller weekly build.

Regional Storage Breakdown

The Midwest recorded the largest regional injection at 20 Bcf, followed by the East with 14 Bcf. The South Central region added only 3 Bcf as a 5 Bcf withdrawal from salt facilities partially offset an 8 Bcf injection into nonsalt storage.

Regional changes in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending July 10, 2026
Region	Working Gas	Weekly Change	vs. Last Year	vs. Five-Year Average
East	614 Bcf	+14 Bcf	−1.9%	+1.7%
Midwest	749 Bcf	+20 Bcf	+3.0%	+6.2%
Mountain	240 Bcf	+4 Bcf	+2.6%	+21.2%
Pacific	319 Bcf	0 Bcf	+8.5%	+21.8%
South Central	1,103 Bcf	+3 Bcf	−5.2%	+2.7%
Total Lower 48	3,024 Bcf	+41 Bcf	−0.7%	+6.4%

Why Did Natural Gas Fall?

The Storage Surplus Remained Large

Although the weekly injection was slightly smaller than expected, inventories remained 181 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus continued to limit concerns about supply availability during the summer cooling season.

Production Remained Strong

Lower 48 natural gas production averaged approximately 110.3 Bcf per day during July. Strong output gave the market confidence that storage could remain adequately supplied even as electricity demand increased.

LNG Feedgas Flows Were Below Their Peak

Feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals averaged around 17.4 Bcf per day during July, below the record level reached in April. Reduced export demand left more domestic supply available to the U.S. market.

HAAWKS view: The 41 Bcf injection was nominally supportive because it came in below both consensus and the five-year average. However, the 39-tick selloff showed that traders placed greater weight on the continuing inventory surplus, high production and subdued LNG demand.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Weather remains the most important near-term variable. Sustained heat across the Midwest and East could increase power-sector gas consumption and produce a smaller injection in the next storage report.

Traders should also monitor Lower 48 production, LNG terminal activity and the pace at which the five-year storage surplus narrows. A series of tighter injections would be more important than a single below-average build.

The next EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for July 23, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 16 natural gas storage report delivered a slightly tighter result than expected. The 41 Bcf injection was below the 43 Bcf Reuters consensus and the 45 Bcf five-year average build.

The immediate market response was nevertheless decisively bearish. Natural gas dropped 39 ticks in only 11 seconds, demonstrating that the market remained more concerned with abundant total inventories than with the modest weekly miss.

Total working gas stood at 3,024 Bcf—21 Bcf below the prior-year level but still 181 Bcf above the five-year average. This left the market adequately supplied and reduced the urgency to price a near-term shortage.

The key message is that the headline injection cannot be viewed in isolation. Storage levels, production, weather, electricity demand and LNG exports collectively determine whether a report is genuinely bullish or bearish.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Official source for the 41 Bcf injection, total Lower 48 inventories, regional storage changes and comparisons with last year and the five-year average.
Reuters — U.S. natural gas prices slide on rising production and ample storage
Used for the 43 Bcf analyst consensus, five-year average injection, production, LNG flows and broader futures-market context.
HAAWKS internal natural gas tick-chart analysis — July 16, 2026
Used for the measured release-window market reaction of 39 ticks lower in 11 seconds.

Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data is one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

USDA Crop Progress: Market Impact on Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

July 2, 2026

USDA Crop Progress: Immediate and Next-Day Market Impact Across Futures, Ethanol, ETFs, and Ag Stocks

HAAWKS graphic showing USDA Crop Progress market impact across futures, ethanol, ETFs, and agricultural stocks.

Every Monday during the U.S. growing season, the USDA Crop Progress Report gives agricultural markets a fresh read on planting, emergence, crop conditions, and harvest progress.

For traders and analysts, the report is more than an update on field activity. It is a weekly supply-side signal that can influence expectations for yield, production, input costs, and short-term price discovery across directly linked agricultural markets.

At HAAWKS, we are introducing structured weekly Crop Progress data points across major U.S. crops to help market participants analyze those signals faster and more consistently.

What HAAWKS will track

HAAWKS will disseminate 30 weekly data points from the USDA Crop Progress Report, covering six major U.S. crops:

Table 1: HAAWKS Crop Progress Data Coverage
  
        Crop
        Data Points
      
        Corn
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Soybeans
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Cotton
        Planted, squaring, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Rice
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Winter wheat
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested
      
        Spring wheat
        Planted, emerged, good/excellent condition, harvested

These indicators provide a high-frequency view of crop development and crop health before final yield and production estimates are known.

Why Crop Progress can move markets

The market does not react simply because a Crop Progress number is high or low.

It reacts when the number is different from what traders expected.

A corn crop rated 67% good/excellent may be bullish if the market expected 70%. The same 67% rating may be bearish if the market expected 64%. The important variable is the surprise.

In practice, the reaction framework is straightforward:

Table 2: Crop Progress Surprise and Typical Market Interpretation
  
        Crop Progress Surprise
        Typical Market Interpretation
      
        Better-than-expected good/excellent ratings
        Higher yield potential, usually bearish for futures
      
        Worse-than-expected good/excellent ratings
        Greater production risk, usually bullish for futures
      
        Faster-than-expected planting
        Lower acreage or timing risk, often bearish
      
        Slower-than-expected planting
        Higher acreage or yield risk, often bullish
      
        Faster-than-expected harvest
        More near-term supply availability, often bearish nearby futures
      
        Slower-than-expected harvest
        Delayed supply movement, often supportive nearby futures

The strongest research evidence is in corn and soybeans, where academic work has found that USDA Crop Progress and condition information can affect futures price discovery around the report window. The effect is especially important during the most weather-sensitive periods of the growing season.

Immediate impact: the first tradable window

The USDA Crop Progress Report is released at 4:00 PM ET. That timing matters.

Most directly linked U.S. agricultural futures markets are already closed when the report is published. As a result, the first clean futures reaction usually happens when markets reopen in the evening session.

Table 3: First Direct Reaction Window by Market
  
        Market
        First Direct Reaction Window
      
        Corn futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Soybean futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Wheat futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Rough rice futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 8:00 PM ET
      
        Cotton No. 2 futures
        Monday evening reopen, around 9:00 PM ET
      
        Ethanol futures
        Potentially same day, because ethanol futures are generally still open at the 4:00 PM ET release time

This means Crop Progress data is often digested before the evening futures reopen. Traders have time to compare the USDA figures against estimates, prior-week levels, five-year averages, weather forecasts, and crop-stage sensitivity.

Next-day impact

For many users, the most practical impact window is the next trading day.

Tuesday’s session reflects a more complete market response, including overnight futures trading, new analyst commentary, updated weather models, and broader liquidity from U.S. equity and ETF markets.

Useful next-day measures include:

Table 4: Next-Day Market Impact Measures
  
        Metric
        What It Captures
      
        Monday settlement to evening reopen
        First futures repricing opportunity
      
        First 30–60 minutes after reopen
        Immediate futures price discovery
      
        Monday settlement to Tuesday settlement
        Full next-day futures impact
      
        Tuesday ETF open vs. prior close
        Equity-market translation of the futures move
      
        Tuesday stock open vs. prior close
        Operational exposure repricing

This distinction is important for ETFs and stocks. U.S. equities close at 4:00 PM ET, the same time the USDA report is released. While after-hours trading may exist, the cleaner and more liquid equity-market reaction usually occurs the next regular trading day.

Directly linked futures markets

Crop Progress data is most directly relevant for futures tied to the underlying crops.

Table 5: Directly Linked Futures Markets
  
        Crop Progress Data
        Direct Futures Market
      
        Corn
        CBOT corn futures and options
      
        Soybeans
        CBOT soybean futures and options
      
        Winter wheat
        CBOT wheat and KC hard red winter wheat futures and options
      
        Spring wheat
        Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures and options
      
        Cotton
        ICE Cotton No. 2 futures and options
      
        Rice
        CBOT rough rice futures and options
      
        Corn supply outlook
        CME denatured fuel ethanol futures

The futures impact is usually clearest in corn and soybeans because these markets are highly liquid and because Crop Progress data directly informs expectations around planting success, crop health, yield potential, and harvest timing.

The corn–ethanol connection

Ethanol belongs in the Crop Progress discussion because corn is the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production.

A stronger-than-expected corn crop can reduce concern about corn availability and input costs for ethanol producers. A weaker-than-expected corn crop can raise concern about feedstock costs and pressure ethanol margins.

The connection is not always one-directional. Ethanol prices also depend on gasoline blending economics, energy prices, Renewable Identification Numbers, export demand, operating rates, inventories, and policy. Still, Crop Progress data can directly affect the corn-cost side of the ethanol margin equation.

A simplified framework:

Table 6: Corn Crop Progress and Ethanol Market Relevance
  
        Crop Progress Signal
        Corn Market Effect
        Possible Ethanol-Market Relevance
      
        Better corn condition than expected
        Bearish corn input-cost signal
        May support ethanol margins if ethanol prices hold
      
        Worse corn condition than expected
        Bullish corn input-cost signal
        May pressure ethanol margins
      
        Faster harvest than expected
        More near-term corn availability
        Can ease feedstock availability concerns
      
        Slower harvest than expected
        Delayed corn movement
        Can tighten local supply and basis conditions

For this reason, ethanol futures and ethanol-exposed companies are directly linked to corn Crop Progress data, even if the reaction is filtered through margins rather than through crop price alone.

Directly linked ETFs

For equity-market participants, the cleanest ETF links are futures-based agriculture funds.

Table 7: Directly Linked ETFs
  
        ETF
        Direct Link
      
        CORN
        Corn futures exposure
      
        SOYB
        Soybean futures exposure
      
        WEAT
        Wheat futures exposure
      
        DBA
        Broad agriculture futures basket
      
        TILL
        Futures exposure to corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar

These ETFs are not Crop Progress instruments themselves. Their link comes from the futures they hold or reference. If Crop Progress creates a meaningful move in corn, soybean, or wheat futures, the effect may be reflected in the relevant futures-based ETF during the next ETF trading session.

Directly linked stocks

Stocks are less pure than futures or futures-based ETFs, but several companies have direct operational exposure to corn, ethanol, grain merchandising, or oilseed processing.

Table 8: Directly Linked Stocks
  
        Stock
        Crop Progress Link
      
        Green Plains
        Corn feedstock costs and ethanol crush margins
      
        Alto Ingredients
        Renewable fuels, specialty alcohols, and ethanol-market exposure
      
        The Andersons
        Grain merchandising and ethanol/renewables exposure
      
        Archer-Daniels-Midland
        Corn processing, ethanol, oilseeds, and grain merchandising
      
        Bunge Global
        Oilseed processing, grain origination, and merchandising
      
        Valero Energy
        Ethanol segment exposure, though diluted by larger refining operations

For stocks, the Crop Progress signal is usually indirect at the share-price level. A corn condition surprise may affect ethanol margins or merchandising opportunities, but company-specific news, energy prices, crush margins, balance-sheet factors, and broader equity-market conditions can dominate.

The cleanest stock impact is usually in companies with meaningful ethanol or grain-processing exposure, particularly when the Crop Progress surprise is large enough to change expectations for corn costs, soybean supply, or harvest timing.

Public sources for pre-release estimates

Because markets react to surprises, estimates matter.

The most useful comparison is:

Actual USDA value minus pre-release consensus estimate.

Publicly available estimate sources may include:

Table 9: Public Sources for Pre-Release Estimates
  
        Source Type
        Use
      
        Reuters analyst polls, often republished by agricultural media
        Consensus expectations for planting, harvest, or condition ratings
      
        Pro Farmer
        Pre-report estimate summaries and market commentary
      
        Agriculture.com / Successful Farming
        Reuters-based Crop Progress estimates and report coverage
      
        Farm Progress / Farm Futures
        Analyst expectations and post-report comparisons
      
        Barchart / Brugler commentary
        Estimate references, crop-rating commentary, and condition-index interpretation
      
        DTN / Progressive Farmer
        USDA Crop Progress summaries and analyst context
      
        USDA NASS prior week and five-year average
        Historical baseline, not a consensus estimate

Prior-week values and five-year averages are important context, but they are not the same as market expectations. A number can be above the five-year average and still disappoint traders if expectations were even higher.

How HAAWKS helps

The value of Crop Progress data is highest when it can be used immediately.

HAAWKS structures the weekly USDA Crop Progress release into clean, real-time data points so users can compare the latest report against the previous week, historical benchmarks, and market estimates.

This helps traders, analysts, and agricultural market participants answer the key questions quickly:

Did the USDA number beat or miss expectations?

Was the surprise large enough to matter?

Which futures markets are directly linked?

Could the reaction carry into ethanol, ETFs, or directly exposed ag stocks the next day?

Conclusion

USDA Crop Progress data is one of the most important weekly inputs for U.S. agricultural market analysis during the growing season.

The strongest immediate and next-day impact is typically seen in directly linked futures markets, especially corn and soybeans. The data can also influence ethanol through the corn feedstock channel and may carry into futures-based agriculture ETFs and directly exposed ag stocks during the next equity-market session.

For market participants, the key is not the absolute number. It is the surprise versus expectations, the seasonal timing of the report, and the market’s ability to translate crop progress into supply, yield, and margin expectations.

By delivering structured Crop Progress data, HAAWKS helps users move from raw USDA figures to market-relevant analysis faster.

Sources

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — Crop Progress
Source for the Crop Progress report description, coverage, and weekly release schedule.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
CME Group — Corn Futures Contract Specifications
Source for CME grain futures trading hours, including the evening reopen schedule relevant to corn, soybeans, wheat, and rough rice.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/grains/corn.html
ICE — Cotton No. 2 Futures
Source for ICE Cotton No. 2 trading hours.
https://www.ice.com/products/254/Cotton-No-2-Futures
CME Group — Denatured Fuel Ethanol Futures FAQ
Source for ethanol futures trading hours and the daily maintenance window.
https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-denatured-fuel-ethanol.html
CME Group — Are Corn and Ethanol Markets Correlated?
Source for the corn–ethanol market connection, including corn as the primary U.S. ethanol input and ethanol’s share of domestic corn disappearance.
https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2024/Are-Corn-and-Ethanol-Markets-Correlated.html
USDA Economic Research Service — Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030
Source for the statement that ethanol manufacturers use about 40% of the U.S. corn crop for ethanol and related co-products.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=105761
Lehecka, G. V. — The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets
Academic source supporting the market impact of USDA Crop Progress and condition information on corn and soybean futures.
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/168261.html
Bethlem et al. — The Impact of the USDA Soybean Crop Condition Reports on Soybean Futures Prices
Academic source supporting next-day soybean futures price reaction to changes in good/excellent soybean crop ratings.
https://www.scielo.br/j/resr/a/vcxYjcBRQYWDd6HL6Vq85WF/?lang=en
Bain and Fortenbery — Impact of Crop Condition Reports on National and Local Wheat Markets
Academic source showing weaker or mixed evidence for wheat crop condition reports compared with corn and soybeans.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-and-applied-economics/article/impact-of-crop-condition-reports-on-national-and-local-wheat-markets/F0BC21D69B41FEE1FF420ADD6FC65431
Teucrium — CORN Fund
Source for futures-based ETF exposure to corn.
https://teucrium.com/corn
Teucrium — SOYB Fund
Source for futures-based ETF exposure to soybeans.
https://teucrium.com/soybeans
Teucrium — WEAT Fund
Source for futures-based ETF exposure to wheat.
https://teucrium.com/weat
Teucrium — TILL Fund
Source for broader futures-based agricultural exposure.
https://teucrium.com/till
Invesco — DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
Source for DBA’s exposure to a rules-based index of agricultural commodity futures.
https://www.invesco.com/us/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-db-agriculture-fund.html
Green Plains Annual Report
Source for Green Plains’ corn feedstock exposure in dry-mill ethanol production.
https://gpreinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Green-Plains-2023-Annual-Report_Web.pdf
ADM — Industrial Ethanol Products
Source for ADM ethanol production from corn feedstock.
https://www.adm.com/en-us/products-services/industrial-biosolutions/products/ethanol/

Comment

HAAWKS Adds Weekly USDA Crop Progress Data for Major U.S. Crops

June 19, 2026

HAAWKS Expands Agricultural Coverage with Weekly USDA Crop Progress Data

HAAWKS announcement graphic for weekly USDA Crop Progress Data covering 30 data points across six major U.S. crops.

HAAWKS is pleased to announce the upcoming introduction and dissemination of new data points from the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report, one of the key reference sources for monitoring the development and condition of major U.S. crops throughout the growing season.

Released every Monday at 4:00 PM ET from April through November, the USDA Crop Progress Report provides timely updates on planting, emergence, crop conditions, and harvesting progress across major agricultural commodities. The next release is scheduled for 22 June 2026.

To support faster analysis and better market visibility, HAAWKS will introduce 30 weekly crop progress data points, covering six major U.S. crops:

Corn
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Soybeans
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Cotton
Planted, squaring, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Rice
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Winter Wheat
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

Spring Wheat
Planted, emerged, conditions good & excellent, harvested

By making these data points available in a structured and timely format, HAAWKS helps traders, analysts, and agricultural market participants track crop development more efficiently and respond more quickly to changing supply-side conditions.

The addition of USDA Crop Progress data further strengthens HAAWKS’ commitment to delivering high-quality, market-relevant agricultural data that supports informed decision-making across the commodity markets.

Source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress

Comment

30 ticks potential profit in 97 seconds on 28 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

May 28, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 30 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 28 May 2026.

911 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Climbs by 92 Bcf, Staying Above the Five-Year Average

U.S. working natural gas in underground storage rose sharply for the week ending May 22, 2026, according to the latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Total working gas stocks reached 2,483 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net increase of 92 Bcf from the prior week.

The latest build keeps storage levels slightly above both last year’s mark and the five-year average. Stocks were 21 Bcf higher than the same week in 2025 and 144 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,339 Bcf. At 2,483 Bcf, total working gas remains within the five-year historical range.

Regional Storage Trends

The weekly increase was broad-based across all major Lower 48 storage regions.

The East region reported working gas stocks of 447 Bcf, up 28 Bcf from the previous week. Compared with historical levels, East inventories were 2.4% below last year but 1.1% above the five-year average.

The Midwest posted one of the larger regional gains, rising 34 Bcf to 539 Bcf. That placed Midwest stocks 0.4% above year-ago levels and 1.5% above the five-year average.

In the Mountain region, inventories increased by 3 Bcf to 213 Bcf. Storage levels there remained notably elevated, standing 8.1% above last year and 35.7% above the five-year average.

The Pacific region added 6 Bcf, bringing stocks to 292 Bcf. Pacific inventories were 15.4% higher than last year and 30.9% above the five-year average, making it one of the strongest regions relative to historical norms.

The South Central region reported stocks of 993 Bcf, up 21 Bcf from the previous week. Inventories were 2.4% below last year but still 0.6% above the five-year average.

Within South Central, salt storage rose by 7 Bcf to 305 Bcf, while nonsalt storage increased by 15 Bcf to 688 Bcf. Salt storage remained 6.7% below year-ago levels, though it was 2.0% above the five-year average. Nonsalt storage was nearly unchanged from both last year and the five-year average.

Storage Remains Comfortable Heading Into Summer

The 92 Bcf injection marks a sizable weekly build and leaves U.S. natural gas inventories in a relatively comfortable position heading into the summer cooling season. Total storage is not dramatically above historical norms, but it remains meaningfully stronger than the five-year average.

The regional breakdown also shows important differences. The Mountain and Pacific regions continue to hold inventories far above their five-year averages, while the East and South Central regions are modestly below last year’s levels. Still, the national picture points to adequate storage, with total working gas safely within the five-year historical range.

Key Takeaways

For the week ending May 22, 2026:

Total U.S. working natural gas in storage was 2,483 Bcf
Inventories increased by 92 Bcf from the previous week
Stocks were 21 Bcf higher than last year
Storage was 144 Bcf above the five-year average
Total working gas remained within the five-year historical range
The largest weekly regional increases came from the Midwest, East, and South Central regions

Overall, the latest EIA report suggests that U.S. natural gas storage remains well-positioned, with inventories above average and continued injections supporting supply levels ahead of peak summer demand.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

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Comment

39 ticks potential profit in 44 seconds on 7 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

May 7, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 7 May 2026.

861 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Builds by 63 Bcf, Staying Above the Five-Year Average

The U.S. natural gas storage season continued to gain momentum in the week ending May 1, 2026, with working gas inventories rising by 63 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from the previous week. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, total working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states reached 2,205 Bcf.

That puts inventories 75 Bcf higher than the same week last year and 139 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,066 Bcf. In percentage terms, total stocks were 3.5% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year average.

While inventories remain comfortably within the five-year historical range, the latest report suggests that the market entered May with a relatively healthy storage cushion.

Regional Storage Trends

The weekly build was not evenly distributed across regions. Most areas posted increases, while the Mountain region recorded a small withdrawal.

The East region added 29 Bcf, bringing inventories to 361 Bcf. That level is nearly in line with the five-year average of 362 Bcf and slightly above last year’s 358 Bcf.

The Midwest saw a 23 Bcf increase, with stocks rising to 452 Bcf. Inventories there are just above last year’s level of 450 Bcf, though still 1.5% below the five-year average of 459 Bcf.

The Mountain region stood out with a 2 Bcf decline, leaving storage at 203 Bcf. Even with the weekly draw, this region remains well above historical benchmarks, sitting 13.4% above last year and 48.2% above the five-year average.

The Pacific region added 3 Bcf, bringing stocks to 275 Bcf. This is one of the strongest regional comparisons in the report, with inventories 19.0% above last year and 39.6% above the five-year average.

The South Central region, the largest storage region by volume, added 9 Bcf, bringing inventories to 914 Bcf. That is nearly flat compared with both last year and the five-year average, standing 0.2% above year-ago levels and 0.4% above the five-year average.

Within South Central, salt storage increased by 1 Bcf to 273 Bcf, while nonsalt storage rose by 7 Bcf to 641 Bcf. Salt storage remains 6.2% below last year and 1.4% below the five-year average, while nonsalt storage is above both comparisons.

What the Latest Build Means

The 63 Bcf injection reflects the seasonal transition from winter withdrawal season into spring and summer refill season. During this period, natural gas demand for heating typically declines, allowing more supply to move into underground storage ahead of the next winter.

The latest storage level of 2,205 Bcf suggests that the market is starting the refill season from a solid position. Inventories are not excessively high, but they are comfortably above both last year and the five-year average.

This matters because storage levels play a key role in shaping natural gas market expectations. Higher inventories can help reduce concerns about winter supply tightness, while lower inventories can increase price sensitivity to weather, production changes, and demand swings.

Regional Strength Is Concentrated in the West

One of the most notable details in the report is the strength of storage levels in the Mountain and Pacific regions. The Mountain region is almost 50% above its five-year average, while the Pacific region is nearly 40% above its five-year average.

By contrast, the East and Midwest are much closer to normal, and South Central is essentially in line with historical comparisons. This regional split suggests that national inventories are above average in part because of unusually strong storage positions in the western regions.

Bottom Line

For the week ending May 1, 2026, U.S. natural gas storage increased by 63 Bcf, bringing total working gas inventories to 2,205 Bcf. Stocks are now 75 Bcf above last year and 139 Bcf above the five-year average.

The report points to a generally well-supplied market as the injection season progresses. While regional differences remain, total inventories are within the five-year historical range and sitting above average heading into the warmer months.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

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Blog

Inventory Results vs. Market Expectations

WTI Moves 24 Ticks Higher

The Product Draws Were the More Important Tightness Signal

Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories Fell 7 Million Barrels

Lower Refinery Runs Help Explain the Inventory Split

Cushing Added a Negative Counter-Signal

Crude Supply and Flow Data

Product Supplied Remained Firm

Why Could WTI Rise Despite an Unexpected Crude Build?

Product Draws Were Much Larger Than Expected

Distillate Stocks Were Already Tight

Total Commercial Stocks Declined

Refining Activity Fell

The Crude Headline Alone Was Insufficient

Release-Window Reaction vs. the Broader Oil Session

Implications for Low-Latency Commodity Strategies

Process the Entire Petroleum Balance

Compare Actual Data with Consensus

Preserve Relationships Between Fields

Separate Absolute Stocks from Weekly Changes

Distinguish Release-Window Movement from Daily Performance

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

Sources

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Consensus Matters Too

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional News Traders

Sources

Why the Early EIA Release Matters to News Traders

Key Inventory Surprises at 12:00 p.m. ET

WTI Falls 30 Ticks on the Early Data

What Was Already Available in the Early Overview?

Imports, Exports and Supply Added More Context

Demand Indicators Were Also Available Before the Full Report

Why the Initial WTI Signal Was Bearish

Crude Drew Less Than Expected

Gasoline Swung to a Build

Distillates Also Built

Total Commercial Stocks Rose

But the Release Was Not Bearish in Every Detail

What This Release Shows Professional News Traders

The Market Does Not Wait for the Full PDF

Machine-Readable Fields Matter

Consensus Is Essential

Different Fields Can Conflict

Low Latency Is About the First Public Data

The 30-Tick Reaction Was Not the Full-Day Oil Story

HAAWKS Conclusion

Low-Latency Data for Professional News Traders

Sources

HAAWKS G4A Adds CES Benchmark Revision Data: What News Traders Need to Know

Seven New HAAWKS G4A Data Points

What Is a CES Benchmark Revision?

Preliminary Does Not Mean the Monthly Series Changes Immediately

HAAWKS Research: Preliminary Revisions 2016–2025

Revision Magnitudes Have Increased Recently

Is the Increase Statistically Significant?

Direction of the Revisions

Total Nonfarm

Total Private

Why Benchmark Revisions Matter to News Traders

They Can Change the Employment Narrative

They Can Affect Fed Expectations