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19 pips potential profit in 136 seconds on 24 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 19 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 July 2025.

USDJPY (14 pips)

EURUSD (5 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Jobless Claims Dip Slightly Amid Signs of Steady Labor Market

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report, released today by the U.S. Department of Labor, shows a modest decline in initial jobless claims, signaling a steady—if slightly cooling—labor market.

Key Numbers: Week Ending July 19, 2025

  • Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
    217,000 — down 4,000 from the prior week’s 221,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average:
    224,500 — a decrease of 5,000 from 229,500

  • Insured Unemployment Rate (SA):
    1.3% — unchanged from the previous week

  • Insured Unemployment Total (SA):
    1,955,000 — up by 4,000

Despite the small uptick in continued claims, the four-week moving average for insured unemployment also ticked slightly down, suggesting overall labor market resilience.

Unadjusted Data Highlights

  • Initial Claims (NSA):
    215,792 — a 17.4% drop from the prior week, larger than expected

  • Year-over-Year Comparison:
    Down from 225,839 during the same week last year

  • Unadjusted Insured Unemployment:
    2,016,061 — up 4,568 week-over-week

  • Continued Weeks Claimed Across All Programs:
    2,039,425 — an increase of 113,926 from the prior week

These figures include regular state programs, federal employees, veterans, and other claimants such as those under Workshare arrangements.

Where Claims Rose — and Why

States with Largest Increases in Initial Claims (Week Ending July 12):

State Change Layoff Sectors / Comments
New York +10,001 Transportation, warehousing, public administration, construction
Nevada +4,397 No comment
Texas +2,984 Wholesale trade, health care, administrative & waste services
Georgia +2,793 Manufacturing, health care, administrative & waste services, warehousing
Pennsylvania +1,942 Admin & waste services, transportation, food services, professional/technical
Missouri +1,279 Manufacturing, administrative & waste services, health care
California +1,261 No comment
Arizona +1,193 No comment
Florida +1,147 Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade

These gains reflect layoffs across multiple sectors, notably in public-facing and logistics-heavy industries.

Where Claims Fell

Largest Decreases in Initial Claims:

State Change Comment
Michigan -4,867 Fewer layoffs in manufacturing and management sectors
New Jersey -3,206 No comment
Tennessee -2,574 No comment
Kentucky -1,579 No comment
Iowa -1,385 No comment

Several states, particularly those with manufacturing-heavy economies, saw meaningful declines, potentially indicating production rebounds or stabilized operations.

Federal and Veteran Claims

  • Federal Employees (Initial Claims): 789 — up by 193

  • Veterans (Initial Claims): 302 — down by 101

  • Continued Weeks Claimed (Federal Employees): 7,226 — up by 191

  • Veterans: 4,479 — up by 167

While small in scale, these shifts highlight employment volatility in specific federal and military-related workforce segments.

States With Highest Insured Unemployment Rates (NSA)

State Insured Unemployment Rate
New Jersey2.8%
Rhode Island2.7%
Puerto Rico2.6%
Minnesota2.4%
California2.2%
Massachusetts2.1%
Washington2.1%
District of Columbia2.0%
Oregon1.9%
Pennsylvania1.9%

These regions may face more sustained labor market pressure, especially in urban and service-heavy economies.

Takeaway

The labor market remains relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The decrease in initial claims and an unchanged insured unemployment rate suggest there is no immediate cause for concern. However, sector-specific layoffs and regional disparities point to underlying structural shifts worth monitoring.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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16 pips, US500 3 points potential profit in 19 seconds on 16 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 16 July 2025.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

US500 (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

June 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) Report: Inflation Cools as Prices Hold Steady

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a cooling trend in wholesale inflation for June 2025. Headline PPI — which tracks the average changes in prices received by domestic producers — remained flat (0.0%) in June, signaling a pause in upward pricing pressure following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.3% decrease in April.

Key Highlights:

Final Demand Overview

  • Overall PPI (Final Demand): 0.0% in June (seasonally adjusted)

  • 12-month change (unadjusted): +2.3%

  • Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade): 0.0% in June, +2.5% year-over-year

The flat monthly reading reflects a balance between rising goods prices and falling service prices. While final demand goods rose 0.3%, final demand services slipped by 0.1%.

Goods: Energy Lifts Prices

  • Final demand goods posted their largest monthly rise since February, primarily due to a 0.3% increase in goods excluding food and energy.

  • Energy prices rose 0.6%, with gasoline and residential electric power both contributing to the gains.

  • Food prices rose 0.2%, though this was partially offset by a dramatic 21.8% drop in chicken egg prices.

Notable price gains:

  • Communication equipment: +0.8%

  • Gasoline

  • Tree nuts and prepared poultry

Notable price declines:

  • Chicken eggs: -21.8%

  • Thermoplastic resins

  • Natural gas liquids

Services: Softening Demand

  • Final demand services dropped 0.1%, mainly driven by declines in services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing.

  • Travel-related services showed weakness:

    • Traveler accommodations: -4.1%

    • Airline passenger services: Down

  • Financial services saw mixed trends:

    • Portfolio management: +2.2%

    • Deposit services (partial): Down

Intermediate Demand: Mixed Trends

  • Processed goods: +0.1% (third monthly gain)

  • Unprocessed goods: +0.7% (largest increase since January)

  • Services: -0.1%

Key intermediate commodity trends:

  • Natural gas to utilities: +12.1%

  • Slaughter cattle & poultry: Increased

  • Ungraded chicken eggs: -25.0%

  • Deposit services (partial): -5.4%

Stage-by-Stage Price Flows

  • Stage 4 Intermediate Demand: Unchanged (goods +0.2%, services -0.1%)

  • Stage 3: -0.2% (driven by falling raw material prices)

  • Stage 2: +0.2% (goods +0.6%, services -0.2%)

  • Stage 1: -0.1% (services prices falling more than goods rose)

Looking Ahead: Index Changes

Starting with the July 2025 release (due August 14), BLS will:

  • Discontinue 5 FD-ID indexes

  • Cease publication of ~350 industry and commodity PPIs

  • Update sampling for 11 industries, including:

    • Tobacco manufacturing

    • Railroad rolling stock

    • Nursing care facilities

    • Industrial sand mining

These changes reflect an effort to keep the PPI current with shifts in industry structure, production methods, and product offerings.

Conclusion

The June 2025 PPI report points to stable producer prices, with inflationary pressures easing in the service sector and moderate gains in goods pricing. The flat reading supports the view that upstream inflation is under control, even as certain volatile categories (like energy and food) continue to swing.

As the Federal Reserve monitors these figures closely, this data may reinforce expectations for a pause in rate hikes, keeping the focus on sustaining disinflation while supporting economic stability.

Next PPI Release: August 14, 2025

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

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13 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 10 July 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 13 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 10 July 2025.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (3 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unemployment Claims Drop Slightly, but Insured Unemployment Hits Highest Level Since 2021

The U.S. labor market saw modest improvement last week, as new unemployment claims dipped slightly. However, underlying data shows signs of increased strain in the system, with insured unemployment rising to levels not seen since late 2021.

Initial Claims Decline, But Remain Elevated

For the week ending July 5, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims dropped to 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 232,000. The 4-week moving average—a more stable measure—fell to 235,500, its lowest level in over a month.

However, the unadjusted figures tell a different story. Actual initial claims filed totaled 240,802, up 10,004 from the previous week. This increase was lower than expected, suggesting less seasonal volatility than anticipated.

Insured Unemployment Rises to Highest Since 2021

While fewer people filed for new claims, ongoing unemployment (those continuing to receive benefits) rose to its highest point in nearly four years:

  • 1,965,000 individuals were receiving insured unemployment benefits for the week ending June 28, up 10,000 from the week before.

  • This marks the highest level since November 13, 2021.

  • The 4-week moving average also climbed to 1,955,250, the highest since November 2021.

Despite the rise, the insured unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) held steady at 1.3%, while the unadjusted rate ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%.

State-Level Trends: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?

Some states saw notable shifts in unemployment activity:

Largest Increases in Initial Claims:

  • New Jersey: +4,684 (due to layoffs in education and public administration)

  • New York: +3,323 (health care, transportation, hospitality)

  • Illinois: +1,840 (manufacturing, retail, logistics)

Largest Decreases:

  • Pennsylvania: -2,910

  • California: -2,822

  • Connecticut: -2,407
    These decreases were primarily attributed to fewer layoffs in industries like transportation, accommodations, and health care.

Highest Insured Unemployment Rates:

  • Puerto Rico: 2.4%

  • Minnesota & New Jersey: 2.3%

  • California & Rhode Island: 2.2%

Federal Program Activity

While most UI activity is state-based, federal claims also shifted slightly:

  • Federal civilian initial claims: 438 (down 15)

  • Veteran initial claims: 388 (up 37)

  • Continued weeks claimed by federal employees and veterans also changed modestly, but remained below pre-pandemic levels.

What Does This Mean?

The data paints a mixed picture: fewer people are entering unemployment, but more are staying on benefits longer—possibly signaling a slower reabsorption into the workforce.

While no states were triggered onto the Extended Benefits (EB) program this week, the sustained rise in continued claims suggests some softening in the labor market.

Bottom Line:
Initial jobless claims are steady, but the rise in ongoing unemployment benefits is worth watching. As seasonal adjustments settle and summer transitions into fall, the labor market may face new pressures.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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639 pips, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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639 pips, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 639 pips/ticks, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points profit out of the following 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q2 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q2 2025 (only pips), please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 31 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

Market Movers: Key U.S. Economic Reports and Their Impact (April–June 2025)

From jobs data to energy inventories and agricultural outlooks, Q2 2025 saw a series of high-impact economic reports that rippled across global markets. Traders closely tracked these releases for their potential to move currencies, equities, commodities, and crypto. Here's a rundown of the most market-moving reports between April and June 2025.

April Highlights

  • JOLTS (April 1): The labor market began Q2 on solid footing, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey moving the USD by 21 pips—a notable reaction suggesting continued sensitivity to labor data.

  • Energy Inventories: The DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports on April 3, 17, and 24 moved 27, 24, and 28 ticks respectively. The Petroleum Status Reports on April 9 and 23 posted 29 and 19 ticks, showing volatility as supply levels fluctuated during seasonal demand shifts.

  • GDP Surprise (April 30): One of the month’s biggest events, the US GDP release, jolted the S&P 500 by 21 points and Bitcoin by a whopping 305 points, reflecting strong cross-asset sensitivity to macro growth data.

Early May Surge

  • Jobless Claims (May 1): Initial claims moved the USD by 29 pips and the S&P 500 by 7 points—a sign that labor market tightness was still front and center for traders.

  • Natural Gas (May 1): The same day, gas storage data shocked the market with a 55-tick move, marking the most volatile energy reaction in Q2.

  • Employment Report (May 2): The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release proved critical again: 19 pips on the USD, 19 S&P points, and 192 points on Bitcoin. Crypto remains highly reactive to macro labor indicators.

Mid-May Momentum

  • WASDE (May 12): Agricultural markets woke up as the USDA’s report drove 56 ticks, signaling shifting expectations in global grain supply and demand.

  • CPI & PPI (May 13, 15): CPI barely moved the needle at 3 pips but still nudged the S&P 500 by 14 points. The combo of PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed on May 15 moved the USD by 17 pips and the index by 10 points—a multifaceted data dump that markets clearly priced in.

  • Oil & Gas (May 15 & 21): Natural gas data dipped to 19 ticks, while oil inventories on May 21 jumped to 42 ticks, hinting at growing concerns over crude supply.

June Closes Q2 with a Bang

  • JOLTS (June 3): This report’s impact diminished to just 10 pips, perhaps signaling a market growing numb to repeated labor strength.

  • NFP (June 6): In contrast, the June NFP was a showstopper—37 pips on the dollar, 11 points on the S&P, and major reactions in correlated assets.

  • CPI (June 11): Again modest at 3 pips, but Bitcoin jumped 222 points, underscoring crypto's outsized sensitivity to inflation trends.

  • June 12 PPI & Jobless Claims: Together they created a 41-pip swing in the greenback—signaling that inflation is not yet off the radar.

  • GDP + Jobless + Durable Goods (June 26): A potent trifecta caused a 26-pip move, reinforcing how tightly markets are tethered to macro signals.

  • USDA Acreage/Grain Stocks (June 30): The most volatile ag report of the quarter delivered a hefty 64-tick reaction, capping off a high-stakes Q2 for commodity traders.

Takeaway for Traders

Q2 2025 reinforced a familiar theme: macro matters. While individual reports varied in market impact, clusters of data—especially when combining labor, inflation, or GDP figures—produced outsized reactions.

Crypto traders should continue watching NFP and CPI closely, while energy and ag market participants can't afford to ignore inventory and USDA reports. For equity and FX traders, jobless claims and broader economic indicators remain key swing factors.

Volatility isn't going away anytime soon—stay alert, stay nimble.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

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61 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 3 July 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (NFP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 61 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 3 July 2025.

USDJPY (40 pips)

EURUSD (21 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

July 2025 U.S. Jobs Report: Modest Gains Fuel Cautious Market Response

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Employment Situation Report on July 3, revealing moderate but steady growth in the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, aligning closely with the 12-month average gain of 146,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, showing little change from previous months and continuing the trend of a relatively tight labor market.

Key Highlights from the Report:

  • State Government and Health Care led job creation, adding 47,000 and 39,000 jobs respectively.

  • Federal Government employment declined by 7,000, bringing the total loss since January to 69,000.

  • Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% to $36.30, while wages for production and nonsupervisory workers climbed 0.3% to $31.24.

  • Long-term unemployment rose by 190,000 to 1.6 million, now accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed.

  • The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%.

Market Reaction: USDJPY and EURUSD Move Modestly

Despite the data being mostly in line with expectations, forex markets saw mild volatility in response to the release:

  • USDJPY rose by 40 pips, signaling modest dollar strength likely tied to steady wage growth and job gains.

  • EURUSD slipped by 21 pips, a subdued reaction reflecting limited surprises in the report.

Overall, the total move across USDJPY and EURUSD was 61 pips, indicating a muted but focused market response, particularly ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend.

What It Means for Traders

The June report did little to shake market sentiment but reaffirmed the narrative of gradual economic cooling without triggering recession fears. Wage growth remains solid, and job creation—though slower than earlier in the recovery—is still healthy. With the Fed watching inflation and labor market metrics closely, this report may not alter near-term rate expectations significantly but reinforces a “wait-and-see” stance.

Looking ahead, the next Employment Situation Report is scheduled for Friday, August 1, 2025, which could play a more pivotal role in shaping monetary policy expectations as more data accumulate.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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26 pips potential profit in 48 seconds on 26 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 26 pips on US Jobless Claims, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Durable Goods Orders data on 26 June 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (7 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

A Mixed Economic Picture: Weekly Jobless Claims Drop, Durable Goods Surge, but GDP Contracts

This week brought a flurry of economic data from key U.S. government agencies, painting a mixed picture of the American economy as it navigates a period of turbulence. From a surprise decline in jobless claims to a dramatic rebound in durable goods orders and a downward revision in GDP, here’s what you need to know.

Jobless Claims Dip Amid Growing Insured Unemployment

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, a decrease of 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average also declined slightly to 245,000, reflecting modest labor market stability.

However, the story takes a turn when we look at continued claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving benefits. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment climbed to 1.974 million in the week ending June 14—the highest level since November 2021. The insured unemployment rate remains at 1.3%, unchanged but notably elevated.

Notably, unadjusted data showed insured unemployment rising by 58,030 to over 1.87 million, with states like California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania reporting the largest volumes of insured unemployed individuals. Meanwhile, layoffs in education, transportation, and hospitality sectors were major contributors to localized surges in initial claims, especially in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Oregon.

Durable Goods Orders Roar Back in May

The Census Bureau delivered a dose of optimism: new orders for manufactured durable goods surged by a staggering 16.4% in May, reaching $343.6 billion. This strong rebound follows a sharp 6.6% decline in April, suggesting a volatile but recovering manufacturing sector.

The increase was led almost entirely by transportation equipment, which jumped 48.3% to $145.4 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders still managed a respectable 0.5% gain, and excluding defense, orders rose 15.5%, underscoring broad-based demand in the private sector.

GDP Revised Down: Economic Contraction in Q1

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised first-quarter real GDP growth down to -0.5%, confirming that the U.S. economy contracted after a 2.4% increase in the previous quarter. This marks a notable deceleration, attributed primarily to:

  • Increased imports (which subtract from GDP),

  • Weaker government spending, and

  • Slower consumer spending, particularly in services like recreation and transportation.

Revised data showed that real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.9%, down from earlier estimates, signaling waning consumer demand. Corporate profits also fell by $90.6 billion, despite being revised upward by $27.5 billion from earlier estimates.

What It All Means

The juxtaposition of falling jobless claims and surging durable goods orders with a contracting GDP highlights the complex and uneven state of the U.S. economy:

  • The labor market remains resilient on the surface, but underlying weakness is showing up in rising continued claims.

  • Manufacturing appears to be regaining momentum, driven largely by transportation.

  • The overall economy contracted, signaling that business activity and consumer strength are faltering.

As the Federal Reserve weighs inflation data against slowing growth, policymakers and market participants alike will need to watch these signals closely in the weeks ahead.

Key Data at a Glance:

Indicator Latest Value Notes
Initial Jobless Claims 236,000 Down 10,000 from previous week
4-Week Avg. Jobless Claims 245,000 Down 750 from previous week
Insured Unemployment 1.974 million Highest since November 2021
Durable Goods Orders +16.4% $343.6 billion in May
Durable Goods (ex-transportation) +0.5% Broader indicator of core demand
Real GDP (Q1 2025) -0.5% Downward revision from -0.2%
Corporate Profits -$90.6 billion Revised up $27.5 billion
PCE Price Index +3.7% Inflation remains elevated
Real GDI +0.2% Revised up from -0.2%

Bottom Line: The economy is sending mixed signals. While manufacturing shows vigor and layoffs have slowed, continued joblessness is climbing and GDP is in the red. We may be in for a bumpy ride as the second half of 2025 unfolds.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html, https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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41 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 12 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 41 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 12 June 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (21 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Jobless Claims Steady, But Trends Show Rising Insured Unemployment. Producer Prices Edge Up: What It Means for the U.S. Economy

Published: June 12, 2025

The latest economic data paints a picture of a U.S. economy that’s holding steady—but showing some signs of strain beneath the surface. Two major releases today from the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provide insight into both the labor market and inflation trends.

Unemployment Claims Show Stability in New Layoffs, But Pressure is Mounting

Initial jobless claims remained flat at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, 2025 (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised figure. However, the 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023—an early signal that labor market softening may be gaining momentum.

Key takeaways:

  • Continued claims (insured unemployment) climbed to 1.96 million, up by 54,000, the highest level since November 2021.

  • The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%, from 1.2% the previous week.

  • Unadjusted initial claims rose 17.1% to 244,752, reflecting real increases in layoffs.

Notable State-Level Trends:

  • Increases: Kentucky (+3,967, due to manufacturing layoffs), Minnesota (+2,364, education sector), and Tennessee (+1,764).

  • Decreases: Michigan (-3,783), Florida (-1,456), and Massachusetts (-1,585) saw fewer layoffs across multiple sectors.

These trends suggest that while broad-based layoffs remain limited, certain industries—particularly manufacturing and education—are facing headwinds.

Producer Prices Inch Up: Inflation Pressures Persist in Select Areas

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following declines in April (-0.2%) and March (-0.1%). Over the past 12 months, the index has increased 2.6%, signaling moderate but persistent inflationary pressure on wholesale goods and services.

Breakdown of May PPI Data:

  • Final Demand Goods: Rose 0.2%, driven by increases in tobacco products, processed poultry, and roasted coffee.

  • Final Demand Services: Up 0.1%, thanks to higher margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, though airline passenger services dropped 1.1%.

  • Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services): Also increased 0.1%, with a 12-month increase of 2.7%.

Intermediate Demand Trends:

  • Processed goods for intermediate demand increased 0.1%, but unprocessed goods dropped 1.6%, driven by an 18.7% plunge in natural gas prices.

  • Prices for services for intermediate demand also rose slightly, lifted by increases in metals and minerals wholesaling and property management fees.

Economic Interpretation

Together, these two reports reflect a labor market with pockets of weakness and a producer-side inflation landscape that is not retreating quickly. While jobless claims aren’t yet surging, rising continued claims hint at a cooling labor market—potentially making it harder for displaced workers to quickly find new jobs.

At the same time, the small rise in producer prices—particularly in core goods and services—could keep inflation concerns alive at the Federal Reserve, which has paused rate hikes but continues to watch price dynamics closely.

What to Watch Going Forward

  • Will continued unemployment claims persist above 1.9 million?

  • How will consumer inflation respond to rising wholesale prices?

  • Will industries like manufacturing and education see further layoffs?

The June data provides a snapshot of an economy in delicate balance—neither overheating nor in clear decline. As the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves and policymakers monitor both job and price data, the coming months will be pivotal for understanding the full trajectory of the U.S. recovery.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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3 pips and BTC 222 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 11 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and BTC on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 3 pips and BTC moved 222 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 June 2025.

USDJPY (1 pip)

EURUSD (2 pips)

BTC (222 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

May 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Holds Steady, Energy Prices Drag Down Headline Numbers

June 12, 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2025, and the data shows a continued cooling in inflation, with a slight 0.1% increase in consumer prices on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a slowdown from April’s 0.2% increase and offers further evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating—albeit unevenly across categories.

Headline Figures at a Glance

  • Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted): +0.1% in May

  • 12-month CPI (unadjusted): +2.4%

  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.1% for the month; +2.8% year-over-year

  • Energy index: -1.0% for the month; -3.5% year-over-year

  • Food index: +0.3% for the month; +2.9% year-over-year

What’s Driving the Numbers?

Shelter Continues to Lead

Shelter prices rose 0.3% in May, maintaining a steady upward climb that has been a consistent inflation driver over the past year. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up 3.9%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall price increase.

Food Prices Edge Up

Food prices increased 0.3% in May, reversing April’s slight decline. The increase was spread across both food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%). Notably:

  • Cereals and bakery products rose 1.1%

  • Egg prices dropped 2.7%, though they’re still up 41.5% year-over-year

  • Fruits and vegetables nudged up 0.3%, but are down 0.5% over the year

Energy Prices Plunge

Energy was the biggest drag on the overall index. The energy index dropped 1.0%, led by a 2.6% decline in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months:

  • Gasoline is down 12.0%

  • Fuel oil is down 8.6%

  • Electricity, however, is up 4.5%

  • Natural gas soared 15.3%

Core Services Show Mild Growth

Excluding food and energy, prices rose only 0.1% in May. Increases were noted in:

  • Medical care services (+0.2%)

  • Motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%)

  • Education (+0.3%)

At the same time, several consumer items saw declines, including:

  • Used cars and trucks (-0.5%)

  • New vehicles (-0.3%)

  • Apparel (-0.4%)

  • Airline fares (-2.7%)

What Does This Mean?

The May CPI report underscores a key theme: inflation is slowing but not uniformly. Core inflation remains sticky, especially in services like shelter and insurance, while energy and some goods prices continue to drop, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room as it weighs future interest rate decisions.

A 2.4% annual inflation rate is close to the Fed’s 2% target, but the 2.8% core inflation figure suggests more progress is needed before declaring full victory over inflation.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead, two major changes are coming:

  • Rebasing of CPI series starting in July 2025 will align selected indexes to a new reference base of December 2024 = 100.

  • Changes to wireless services CPI methodology beginning with July data will use alternative data sources and methods to reflect real-time pricing trends more accurately.

The June CPI report is scheduled for release on July 15, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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U.S. Job Market Update: May 2025 Shows Steady Growth but Signs of Cooling

The U.S. labor market maintained moderate momentum in May 2025, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by 139,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, continuing a 12-month trend of hovering between 4.0% and 4.2%.

Key Highlights

  • Job Growth by Sector:

    • Health Care led the way with +62,000 jobs, particularly in hospitals and ambulatory services.

    • Leisure and Hospitality added +48,000 jobs, mostly in food services and bars.

    • Social Assistance grew by +16,000 jobs, continuing its steady upward trend.

    • Federal Government employment continued to decline, down 22,000 jobs in May and 59,000 since January.

  • Wages and Hours:

    • Average hourly earnings rose by $0.15 to $36.24, a 0.4% monthly increase, and 3.9% over the past year.

    • The average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours.

  • Labor Force Metrics:

    • The employment-population ratio slipped to 59.7%, and labor force participation decreased to 62.4%.

    • Long-term unemployment dropped by 218,000 to 1.5 million, making up 20.4% of total unemployment.

    • Those jobless for less than 5 weeks rose by 264,000 to 2.5 million.

Revisions & Notes

  • March and April job gains were revised downward by a combined 95,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market may be slightly weaker than previously believed.

  • A minor correction was made to April’s household survey data due to the rollout of a redesigned sample.

  • A shift in classification of certain New York state workers impacted industry employment counts, transferring jobs from health care to social assistance.

Takeaway

The May report signals a job market that remains resilient but cautious. While job growth continues, it’s slower than the pace seen earlier in the recovery. Wage growth is steady, but softening participation and revisions to previous months hint at underlying labor market fragility. All eyes will be on the June report, due July 3, for confirmation of any emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Unemployment Claims Edge Up in Late May, 2025: Signs of a Softening Labor Market?

Published: June 5, 2025

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows a modest increase in new unemployment claims, potentially signaling slight softening in the labor market as we head into summer.

Key Highlights from the Week Ending May 31, 2025:

  • Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
    New filings for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 239,000.
    This is the highest weekly figure in recent months and above the 4-week average of 235,000, which itself ticked up by 4,500.

  • 4-Week Moving Average Trend:
    Continues to climb, now at its highest since late 2021, suggesting a potential shift in labor market conditions.

  • Insured Unemployment:
    The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell slightly to 1.9 million, a drop of 3,000 from the prior week.
    However, the 4-week moving average rose to 1,895,250 — its highest since November 2021.

  • Insured Unemployment Rate:
    Decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, both on a seasonally and unadjusted basis.

Unadjusted Insights: May 31 Snapshot

  • Initial Claims (Unadjusted):
    Dropped to 208,642, down 3,128 from the previous week.
    However, this was a smaller decline than expected, and still higher than the 196,177 claims filed during the same week last year.

  • Insured Unemployment (Unadjusted):
    Decreased by 18,524 to 1,757,031 — although this figure is still nearly 87,000 higher than the same week in 2024.

Notable State Activity

Some states saw significant week-over-week shifts in initial claims:

Increases:

  • Michigan: +3,259 (due to manufacturing layoffs)

  • Nebraska: +1,328 (also driven by manufacturing job losses)

  • California: +1,041 (no specific reason provided)

Decreases:

  • No states reported weekly declines of more than 1,000.

Among states with the highest insured unemployment rates:

  • New Jersey leads at 2.2%, followed by California and Washington at 2.1%.

Federal Program Claims

  • Federal Civilian Employees:
    538 initial claims (down 72); 6,719 continued weeks claimed (up 341)

  • Newly Discharged Veterans:
    295 initial claims (down 79); 4,486 continued weeks claimed (down 83)

Big Picture Takeaway

While these fluctuations are not dramatic, the steady rise in the 4-week moving averages for both initial and continued claims may be an early signal of a cooling labor market. In particular, manufacturing layoffs in several key states are contributing to localized increases in claims.

That said, the insured unemployment rate remains relatively low at 1.2%, suggesting overall employment levels are still strong by historical standards.

Keep an Eye On...

  • Future reports to see whether this increase is temporary or becomes a trend

  • Sector-specific layoff patterns — particularly in manufacturing

  • State-level policy shifts or economic factors driving regional changes in claims

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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