According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 3 pips and BTC moved 222 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 June 2025.
USDJPY (1 pip)
EURUSD (2 pips)
BTC (222 points)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
May 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Holds Steady, Energy Prices Drag Down Headline Numbers
June 12, 2025
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2025, and the data shows a continued cooling in inflation, with a slight 0.1% increase in consumer prices on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a slowdown from April’s 0.2% increase and offers further evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating—albeit unevenly across categories.
Headline Figures at a Glance
Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted): +0.1% in May
12-month CPI (unadjusted): +2.4%
Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.1% for the month; +2.8% year-over-year
Energy index: -1.0% for the month; -3.5% year-over-year
Food index: +0.3% for the month; +2.9% year-over-year
What’s Driving the Numbers?
Shelter Continues to Lead
Shelter prices rose 0.3% in May, maintaining a steady upward climb that has been a consistent inflation driver over the past year. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up 3.9%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall price increase.
Food Prices Edge Up
Food prices increased 0.3% in May, reversing April’s slight decline. The increase was spread across both food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%). Notably:
Cereals and bakery products rose 1.1%
Egg prices dropped 2.7%, though they’re still up 41.5% year-over-year
Fruits and vegetables nudged up 0.3%, but are down 0.5% over the year
Energy Prices Plunge
Energy was the biggest drag on the overall index. The energy index dropped 1.0%, led by a 2.6% decline in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months:
Gasoline is down 12.0%
Fuel oil is down 8.6%
Electricity, however, is up 4.5%
Natural gas soared 15.3%
Core Services Show Mild Growth
Excluding food and energy, prices rose only 0.1% in May. Increases were noted in:
Medical care services (+0.2%)
Motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%)
Education (+0.3%)
At the same time, several consumer items saw declines, including:
Used cars and trucks (-0.5%)
New vehicles (-0.3%)
Apparel (-0.4%)
Airline fares (-2.7%)
What Does This Mean?
The May CPI report underscores a key theme: inflation is slowing but not uniformly. Core inflation remains sticky, especially in services like shelter and insurance, while energy and some goods prices continue to drop, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room as it weighs future interest rate decisions.
A 2.4% annual inflation rate is close to the Fed’s 2% target, but the 2.8% core inflation figure suggests more progress is needed before declaring full victory over inflation.
What to Watch Next
Looking ahead, two major changes are coming:
Rebasing of CPI series starting in July 2025 will align selected indexes to a new reference base of December 2024 = 100.
Changes to wireless services CPI methodology beginning with July data will use alternative data sources and methods to reflect real-time pricing trends more accurately.
The June CPI report is scheduled for release on July 15, 2025.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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