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Forex News Trading

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13 pips potential profit in 56 seconds on 17 October 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 13 pips on US Retail Sales data on 17 October 2023.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (3 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Summary of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales - September 2023

The advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023 reveal significant insights into the nation's economic activity:

  • Total Sales: Adjusted for seasonal variations, as well as holiday and trading-day differences, total sales for September 2023 reached approximately $704.9 billion. This represents a notable increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month.

  • Year-on-Year Growth: Comparing September 2023 to the same month in 2022, total sales demonstrated substantial growth, showing an increase of 3.8 percent.

  • Quarterly Performance: Analyzing the July 2023 through September 2023 period in comparison to the same period a year earlier, sales exhibited a solid rise of 3.1 percent.

  • August 2023 Revision: The percent change between July 2023 and August 2023 was revised from an initial estimate of 0.6 percent to an upwardly adjusted figure of 0.8 percent.

  • Retail Trade: Retail trade sales in September 2023 increased by 0.7 percent compared to August 2023. Furthermore, retail trade sales saw a positive growth of 3.0 percent in comparison to September 2022.

  • Key Contributors: Nonstore retailers experienced substantial year-on-year growth of 8.4 percent, while food services and drinking places also demonstrated a notable increase of 9.2 percent when compared to September 2022.

These figures provide a snapshot of consumer activity, indicating positive trends in retail and food services sales. The data underscores the resilience and growth of the U.S. economy during this period.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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15 pips and 37 points potential profit in 7 seconds on 13 October 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and US30 on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis EURUSD, USDJPY and US30 moved 15 pips and 37 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 13 October 2023.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (8 pips)

US30 (37 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Summary of Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Results - October 2023

The preliminary results for October 2023's Consumer Sentiment Index and related economic indicators provide insights into consumer sentiment, economic conditions, and expectations. Here are the key highlights:

Consumer Sentiment Decline:

  • The Index of Consumer Sentiment experienced a notable 7.5% decline in October compared to September, marking a reversal from two months of relatively little change.

  • Assessments of personal finances decreased by about 15%, primarily due to growing concerns over inflation.

  • One-year expected business conditions plunged by approximately 19%.

Outlook on Long-Run Business Conditions:

  • While short-term expectations worsened, long-run expected business conditions remained relatively stable, suggesting that consumers believe the current economic challenges are temporary.

Demographic Impact:

  • Consumer sentiment setbacks were observed across nearly all demographic groups, reflecting the ongoing impact of rising prices and economic uncertainty.

Inflation Expectations:

  • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% in the previous month to 3.8% in October, reaching the highest level since May 2023.

  • Long-run inflation expectations increased from 2.8% to 3.0% during the same period, remaining elevated compared to the pre-pandemic range.

These results highlight the ongoing influence of inflation and economic conditions on consumer sentiment. While short-term confidence has waned, the stability of long-run expectations suggests a belief among consumers that current economic challenges will not persist indefinitely.

The upcoming final data release in October will provide a more comprehensive view of consumer sentiment trends, offering valuable insights for policymakers and economists.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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154 pips potential profit in 96 seconds on 13 October 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURSEK first on Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis EURSEK moved 154 pips on Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 October 2023.

EURSEK (154 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Summary of CPI Report - September 2023

In September 2023, Sweden experienced a notable shift in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Consumer Price Index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) data. Here are the key takeaways from the report:

  1. Inflation Rate Drop: The inflation rate, as per CPI, stood at 6.5 percent in September, a noticeable decline from the 7.5 percent recorded in August. This decrease reflects a potentially more stable pricing environment.

  2. Monthly Increase: On a month-to-month basis, the CPI rose by 0.5 percent, with rising prices in various categories contributing to this upturn.

  3. CPIF Figure: The CPIF, which eliminates the direct effects of monetary policy changes, posted a 12-month inflation rate of 4.0 percent in September, indicating a more stable rate compared to CPI.

  4. Electricity Price Impact: One of the significant factors influencing inflation was a substantial 45.3 percent decrease in electricity prices compared to the previous year, negatively affecting the inflation rate.

  5. Price Shifts: Several sectors experienced notable price changes. Notably, clothing prices increased by 4.9 percent, aligning with seasonal trends. Additionally, interest expenses for household mortgages, furniture, fuel, and recreation and culture contributed to the overall rise in prices.

  6. Annual Variations: The report emphasized that annual changes played a crucial role in Sweden's inflation. Higher interest expenses on household mortgages, increased prices in various consumer goods and services, and positive contributions from the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector all played a role.

  7. Measures of Inflation: The report highlighted various measures of inflation, including the CPIF, which aligns with the Riksbank's inflation target, and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used within the EU for international comparisons.

This CPI report for September 2023 provides a snapshot of Sweden's evolving inflation landscape. The reduction in the inflation rate indicates potential stability, offering insights for both consumers and policymakers to navigate the economic climate.

Source: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/prices-and-consumption/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-cpi/pong/statistical-news/consumer-price-index-cpi-september-2023/

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67 ticks potential profit in 60 seconds on 12 October 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 67 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 12 October 2023.

Natural gas (67 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

In the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending October 6, 2023, it was revealed that working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 states stood at 3,529 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This marked an increase of 84 Bcf from the previous week. Furthermore, current storage levels were 316 Bcf higher than the same period in the previous year and 163 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,366 Bcf. Despite these fluctuations, the total working gas volume of 3,529 Bcf remains within the historical five-year range. This report offers essential insights into the natural gas storage landscape, aiding in the assessment of trends and comparisons with historical data.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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11 pips potential profit in 9 seconds on 12 October 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD on US BLS CPI (Consumer Price Index) data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 11 pips on US BLS CPI (Consumer Price Index) data on 12 October 2023.

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Summary - September 2023

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.4 percent in September, following a 0.6 percent rise in August. Over the past 12 months, the all items index saw a 3.7 percent increase before seasonal adjustments.

The largest contributor to the monthly increase in all items was the shelter index, accounting for over half of the rise. The gasoline index also significantly contributed to the monthly increase. While energy component indexes showed mixed results in September, the overall energy index increased by 1.5 percent during the month. The food index rose by 0.2 percent, consistent with the previous two months. Food at home increased by 0.1 percent, while food away from home rose by 0.4 percent.

Excluding food and energy, the all items index increased by 0.3 percent in September, matching the August increase. Several indexes recorded increases, including rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. On the other hand, indexes for used cars and trucks, as well as apparel, saw decreases over the month.

Over the 12 months ending in September, the all items index increased by 3.7 percent, the same rate as in August. However, the all items less food and energy index increased by 4.1 percent over the last year. The energy index decreased by 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending in September, while the food index increased by 3.7 percent over the same period.

This CPI report aligns with a forecasted month-over-month increase of 0.3 percent and a year-over-year increase of 3.7 percent. The data reflects changing consumer prices and provides insights into inflationary trends.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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9 pips and 115 points potential profit in 85 seconds on 6 October 2023, analysis on forex fx futures news trading EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved around 9 pips and US30 around 115 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 October 2023.

EURUSD (9 pips)

US30 (115 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

On October 6, 2023, several key economic indicators provided insights into the state of the U.S. economy and financial markets:

  1. Employment Situation: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 in September. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%. Job gains were observed in various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, government, health care, professional and technical services, and social assistance.

  2. Unemployment Rates: The unemployment rates for different demographic groups showed little change in September, with adult men at 3.8%, adult women at 3.1%, teenagers at 11.6%, Whites at 3.4%, Blacks at 5.7%, Asians at 2.8%, and Hispanics at 4.6%.

  3. Long-Term Unemployment: The number of long-term unemployed individuals (jobless for 27 weeks or more) remained relatively stable at 1.2 million, accounting for 19.1% of all unemployed persons.

  4. Labor Force Participation and Employment-Population Ratio: Both the labor force participation rate (62.8%) and the employment-population ratio (60.4%) experienced no significant changes.

  5. Part-Time Employment: Approximately 4.1 million individuals were employed part-time for economic reasons, reflecting limited changes in their employment status.

  6. Persons Not in the Labor Force: Around 5.5 million people who wanted a job but were not actively seeking one were categorized as not in the labor force.

  7. Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2% to $33.88. Over the past year, average hourly earnings rose by 4.2%.

  8. Workweek: The average workweek remained steady at 34.4 hours for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls.

  9. Revisions: Previous employment data were revised upwards, with July's nonfarm payroll employment revised from +157,000 to +236,000, and August's revised from +187,000 to +227,000. This resulted in a combined increase of 119,000 jobs.

Forecasts and Expectations:

  • The unemployment rate had been forecasted at 3.7%, but it remained at 3.8%.

  • Nonfarm payrolls were forecasted at 170,000, but they exceeded expectations with an increase of 336,000.

  • Private nonfarm payrolls were forecasted at 160,000.

  • Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) was forecasted at 0.3%, but it came in at 0.2%.

  • Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) was forecasted at 4.3%.

In summary, the U.S. labor market showed signs of resilience in September, with stronger-than-expected job gains and a steady unemployment rate. However, some indicators, such as wage growth, came in slightly below forecasts, suggesting potential challenges in achieving higher income growth for workers. The revised employment data for July and August also indicated a more robust labor market performance than previously reported.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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6044 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 20 events in the third quarter of 2023 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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6044 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 20 events in the third quarter of 2023 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 6044 pips/ticks profit out of the following 20 events in the third quarter of 2023 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2022 was 9,269 pips/ticks.

Q3 2023

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q3 2023, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 35 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

In Q3 2023, a series of significant economic events and reports had the potential to offer profitable trading opportunities in various financial markets:

USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) - Released on 12 July 2023, this report impacted agricultural markets by providing supply and demand forecasts for key commodities. It led to a market reaction of 188 ticks.

US Jobless Claims and US Producer Price Index (PPI) - On 13 July 2023, these reports influenced perceptions of the US job market and inflation, affecting currency and commodity markets. This resulted in a market reaction of 54 pips.

Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Published on 14 July 2023, this report was essential for assessing inflation trends and influencing the Swedish Krona (SEK) exchange rate. It led to a market reaction of 101 pips.

University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations - Also released on 14 July 2023, these indicators reflected consumer confidence and economic outlook, impacting currency and equity markets. This resulted in a market reaction of 56 pips.

US Durable Goods Orders and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - On 27 July 2023, these reports provided insights into the US manufacturing sector and overall economic performance, influencing various financial instruments. The market reacted with a movement of 23 pips.

Sweden Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Retail Sales, and Labour Force - Published on 28 July 2023, these reports affected the Swedish economy and the SEK exchange rate, with GDP, retail sales, and labor force data being key indicators. They led to a market reaction of 271 pips.

DOE Petroleum Status Report - Released on 2 August 2023, this report influenced oil prices and related assets by revealing US petroleum inventories. It resulted in a market reaction of 40 ticks.

US Jobless Claims and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) - On 10 August 2023, these reports impacted US employment and inflation perceptions, influencing currency and commodity markets. This led to a market reaction of 39 pips.

University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations - Also released on 11 August 2023, these indicators offered insights into consumer behavior and inflation trends, affecting financial markets. The market reacted with a movement of 43 pips.

USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) - On 11 August 2023, this report influenced commodity markets with forecasts for global agricultural supply and demand. It resulted in a market reaction of 92 ticks.

DOE Petroleum Status Report - Released on 23 August 2023, this report influenced oil markets by disclosing US petroleum inventory data. It led to a market reaction of 60 ticks.

Turkey Interest Rate Decision - On 24 August 2023, this decision from the Turkish central bank impacted the Turkish Lira (TRY) and related assets, resulting in a market reaction of 4839 pips.

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Published on 30 August 2023, this report reflected the health of the US economy, influencing various financial instruments. The market reacted with a movement of 23 pips.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Report - Released on 31 August 2023, this report provided insights into US natural gas storage levels, affecting natural gas prices. It resulted in a market reaction of 28 ticks.

Canada Labour Force Survey - On 8 September 2023, this report offered data on Canadian employment trends, impacting the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and related assets. The market reacted with a movement of 28 pips.

USDA Grain Stocks - Released on 29 September 2023, this report provided information on grain inventories, influencing commodity prices and related assets. It resulted in a market reaction of 36 ticks.

These events and reports presented trading opportunities across various markets, allowing traders to make informed decisions and potentially profit from market movements during Q3 2023.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer the fastest machine-readable data feed for US economic and commodity data and economic data from Norway, Sweden, Russia, Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

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187 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in September 2023 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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187 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in September 2023 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 187 pips / ticks profit out of the following 6 events in September 2023. The potential performance in 2022 was 9,269 pips / ticks.

September 2023

Cumulative potential, indicative performance September 2023, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 12 minutes! (preparation time not included)

In September 2023, several key economic events and reports had the potential to impact financial markets, offering trading opportunities:

  1. Canada Labour Force Survey (8 September 2023):

    • Market Reaction: 28 pips movement.

    • Analysis: This report provides insights into Canadian employment trends, affecting the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and related assets.

  2. USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) (12 September 2023):

    • Market Reaction: 44 ticks movement.

    • Analysis: WASDE reports offer forecasts for global agricultural supply and demand, influencing commodity markets.

  3. US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (13 September 2023):

    • Market Reaction: 21 pips movement.

    • Analysis: CPI data reveals inflation levels in the United States, impacting the US Dollar (USD) and broader financial markets.

  4. ECB Interest Rate Decision (14 September 2023):

    • Market Reaction: 25 pips movement.

    • Analysis: The European Central Bank's rate decision can influence the Euro (EUR) and European financial assets.

  5. University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (15 September 2023):

    • Market Reaction: 33 pips movement.

    • Analysis: Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data impact consumer spending and economic outlook.

  6. USDA Grain Stocks (29 September 2023):

    • Market Reaction: 36 ticks movement.

    • Analysis: This report provides insights into grain inventories, influencing commodity prices and related assets.

These events and reports presented opportunities for traders to analyze and capitalize on market movements in various financial instruments, from currencies to commodities. While these opportunities carried profit potential, traders should always be mindful of market risks and exercise prudent trading practices.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer the fastest machine-readable data feed for US economic and commodity data and economic data from Norway, Sweden, Poland, Russia, Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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33 pips potential profit in 10 seconds on 15 September 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 33 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 15 September 2023.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Consumer Sentiment:

  • Consumer sentiment displayed a marginal decline of 1.8 index points during the current reporting period. Over the past two months, sentiment has exhibited relative stability, reflecting the cautious equilibrium in consumer outlook.

  • Presently positioned at 67.7 points, consumer sentiment stands approximately 35% above the nadir observed in June 2022, yet falls short of the historical mean of 86.

  • The sentiment trajectory revealed divergent movements across constituent index components and demographic segments. Nevertheless, the overall sentiment landscape remained largely unchanged from the preceding month.

  • Noteworthy is the mild enhancement in both short-term and long-term expectations for economic conditions in the current assessment. Despite this improvement, consumers retain an element of reservation regarding the future trajectory of the broader economic landscape.

  • While there has been limited mention of the potential federal government shutdown within the survey responses thus far, it is acknowledged that should such a scenario materialize, it could exert a detrimental influence on consumer sentiments. This resonance is reminiscent of earlier episodes involving the debt ceiling.

Inflation Outlook:

  • Observations pertaining to inflation remained salient within the consumer survey. Notably, consumers registered the deceleration in inflation but anticipate its resurgence.

  • Projections for year-ahead inflation exhibited moderation, declining from 3.5% in the previous month to 3.1% in the current month. This reading represents the lowest level recorded since March 2021.

  • Noteworthy also is the convergence of long-term inflation expectations, which settled at 2.7%, falling beneath the customary 2.9-3.1% range. This occurrence marks only the second deviation from this range in the past 26 months.

  • It is of relevance to highlight that the long-term inflation expectations currently observed were notably situated within the 2.2-2.6% range in the two years preceding the onset of the pandemic.

In summary, the consumer sentiment landscape reflects a nuanced trajectory characterized by marginal fluctuations. Within the broader context, consumers exhibit cautious optimism, manifesting in select enhancements in economic expectations. Meanwhile, inflation dynamics remain a focal point, with a moderation in short-term and long-term expectations noted, indicative of evolving perceptions amid ongoing economic developments.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

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25 pips potential profit in 34 seconds on 14 September 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD on ECB Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 25 pips on European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision data on 14 September 2023.

EURUSD (25 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

On the date of September 20, 2023, the ECB announced a series of significant monetary policy decisions and shared key insights into the Eurozone's economic outlook:

ECB's Determination to Tackle Inflation:

  • The ECB expressed its concern over persistently high inflation while acknowledging a decline in inflation rates. Despite this decline, inflation levels remained above the ECB's target.

  • The central objective of the ECB was to ensure that inflation returns to its medium-term target of 2% promptly.

Interest Rate Increase:

  • In a move to address inflation concerns and demonstrate its commitment to this target, the ECB decided to raise its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. This action aimed to tighten monetary policy.

  • The decision to increase interest rates was grounded in the ECB's assessment of inflation prospects, economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the efficacy of monetary policy transmission.

Revised GDP Growth Projections:

  • The ECB provided updated macroeconomic projections for the Eurozone. These projections indicated a downward revision in GDP growth expectations.

  • Economic growth in the Eurozone was projected to be modest, with expectations of a 0.7% expansion in 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025. This revision was likely due to tightening financial conditions and challenging international trade dynamics.

Revised Economic Projections:

  • The ECB provided updated macroeconomic projections for the Eurozone, projecting average inflation rates of 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025. These projections reflected upward revisions for 2023 and 2024 primarily due to higher energy prices, and a downward revision for 2025.

  • Even though some indicators pointed to easing, underlying price pressures in the Eurozone were considered high.

Market Reaction and Currency Impact:

  • In response to these developments, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a notable decline. This movement was influenced by the ECB's revised GDP growth projections, which suggested a potentially weaker economic outlook for the Eurozone.

  • Lower GDP growth forecasts raised concerns about economic health, leading to speculations that the ECB might be less inclined to raise interest rates, thus diminishing expectations of higher returns on Euro-denominated assets. This perception made the Euro (EUR) less attractive to investors, resulting in a depreciation of the currency against the US Dollar (USD).

Future Monetary Policy and Flexibility:

  • The ECB indicated that the current interest rate levels, if maintained over an adequate period, could significantly contribute to achieving the inflation target.

  • Future ECB decisions would ensure that key interest rates remained at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as needed.

  • The ECB would continue to adopt a data-dependent approach to determine the appropriate level and duration of these restrictions based on evolving economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD's decline can be attributed to the interplay of the ECB's revised GDP growth projections, interest rate expectations, and investor sentiment. Economic projections played a pivotal role in shaping market reactions, ultimately contributing to the observed downward movement in the EUR/USD currency pair.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230914~aab39f8c21.en.html

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