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US500 21 points and BTC 305 points potential profit in 180 seconds on 30 April 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading US500 and BTC on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data

According to our analysis US500 moved 21 points and BTC moved 305 points on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 30 April 2025.

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U.S. Economy Contracts Slightly in Q1 2025 Amid Rising Imports and Government Spending Cuts

Posted April 30, 2025

The U.S. economy experienced a mild contraction in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent from January through March, a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent growth posted in the final quarter of 2024.

This downturn was driven primarily by a surge in imports—especially in consumer goods such as pharmaceuticals and capital goods like computer hardware—and a decline in federal government spending, notably on defense. These negative contributions were only partly offset by gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

A Deeper Look at the Components

Consumer Spending:
Consumer activity remained a bright spot in the economy, increasing during the quarter. Services led the charge, particularly in health care and housing-related expenditures. On the goods side, spending on nondurable goods rose, though this was partially offset by a dip in durable goods purchases.

Investment:
Private inventory investment saw notable growth, largely due to increased inventory in wholesale trade—especially drugs and sundries. This uptick played a major role in mitigating the overall GDP decline.

Imports and Exports:
The increase in imports significantly outpaced export growth, dragging down GDP. While exports did rise, they were not enough to offset the negative impact of higher imports. Notably, the BEA made an adjustment to remove a spike in silver bar imports from investment calculations, as such metals are considered valuables rather than productive assets under GDP accounting rules.

Government Spending:
Federal government expenditures decreased sharply, led by cuts in defense spending. This was partially balanced by a rise in compensation at the state and local government level, but overall, public sector spending contributed negatively to GDP.

Inflation Pressures Mount

Inflation picked up across key indicators. The gross domestic purchases price index rose 3.4 percent in Q1, compared to 2.2 percent in Q4 2024. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, with the core PCE index—excluding food and energy—rising 3.5 percent. These figures point to growing inflationary pressure, potentially shaping future monetary policy decisions.

Underlying Strength in Private Demand

Despite the headline GDP contraction, underlying private demand remained strong. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—which combines consumer spending and fixed investment—grew by 3.0 percent, slightly higher than the 2.9 percent gain in Q4. This suggests the domestic private sector remains resilient.

The Wildfire Factor

Economic disruptions from January’s wildfires in Southern California, primarily in Los Angeles County, were embedded within the broader data but not isolated in the GDP estimate. Preliminary BEA figures estimate that these fires caused $34.0 billion in damage to privately owned fixed assets and $11.0 billion in losses to state and local government infrastructure. While such destruction does not directly affect GDP, it represents a significant loss of wealth.

Looking Ahead

Today’s report is an advance estimate and subject to revision. The second estimate, which will incorporate more complete data, is scheduled for release on May 29, 2025. This will also include preliminary figures on corporate profits, offering additional insight into the underlying economic conditions as the U.S. navigates a complex mix of inflation, investment shifts, and climate-related disruptions.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

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16 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 30 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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Understanding the U.S. Economy: A Look at Q3 2024's GDP Performance

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has just released its “advance” estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2024, and there’s plenty to unpack. This preliminary figure provides valuable insight into the economic health of the country, although it’s essential to note that these numbers can be revised as more complete data becomes available.

Key Takeaways from Q3 2024 GDP Data

Real GDP in the U.S. grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. While this reflects steady growth, it’s a slight deceleration from the 3.0% increase seen in the second quarter. This slowing momentum was primarily attributed to a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. However, bright spots included boosts in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending.

Breaking Down the Numbers

  1. Consumer Spending: This remained a significant driver of GDP growth, with contributions from both goods and services. Within the goods category, notable increases were seen in non-durable goods, particularly prescription drugs, and motor vehicles and parts. The services sector saw gains primarily in health care—specifically outpatient services—and food services and accommodations.

  2. Exports: The surge in exports was led by capital goods, excluding automotive products, signaling robust demand for U.S. products overseas.

  3. Federal Government Spending: An increase in defense spending helped bolster overall federal spending, contributing positively to the GDP figure.

  4. Imports: It’s worth noting that imports also increased during this period, and since imports are subtracted in the GDP calculation, this rise partly offset the other gains.

What’s Behind the Deceleration?

While consumer spending and exports gained traction, the third quarter saw a notable reduction in private inventory investment. This suggests that businesses might be treading cautiously, perhaps in response to economic uncertainties or inventory management strategies. Additionally, the decrease in residential fixed investment indicates continued challenges in the housing market, which has been a trend in recent quarters.

Current-Dollar GDP and Price Indices

In terms of current-dollar GDP, the economy expanded by 4.7%, translating to an increase of $333.2 billion, bringing the total to $29.35 trillion. This was a step down from the 5.6% growth recorded in the second quarter.

Inflationary pressures showed signs of easing in Q3. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by just 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure for consumer prices, rose by 1.5%, a significant drop from the 2.5% in Q2. When food and energy were excluded, the PCE price index marked a 2.2% increase, compared to 2.8% in Q2.

Personal Income and Savings

Personal income continued to grow but at a slower pace, increasing by $221.3 billion in Q3 compared to $315.7 billion in Q2. The rise was largely driven by higher compensation. Real disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.6% following a 2.4% rise in the previous quarter.

The personal saving rate—a gauge of how much income households are saving—dropped to 4.8%, down from 5.2% in Q2. This decline could indicate that consumers are tapping into their savings more to sustain spending in the face of income pressures or shifting economic conditions.

What’s Next?

The “second” estimate for Q3 2024, which will include more comprehensive data, is set for release on November 27, 2024. This revision will offer a clearer picture of economic trends and potential adjustments to today’s figures. Alongside it, the BEA will release a preliminary estimate for corporate profits, adding more context to the overall economic landscape.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. economy showed solid yet slightly moderated growth in Q3 2024, signaling resilience despite facing various headwinds. Consumers continued to spend, the federal government increased its investments, and exports remained robust, showcasing strength in multiple sectors. However, cautionary trends, such as the dip in private inventory investment and the slowdown in income growth, suggest that businesses and consumers are navigating an uncertain economic climate. The coming months and further data will provide deeper insights into whether this moderation is temporary or indicative of a broader economic trend.

Stay tuned for the BEA’s next release on November 27 for a more refined view of the third quarter and a look at corporate profit trends.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

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47 pips potential profit in 56 seconds on 29 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 29 August 2024.

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U.S. Economy Shows Strong Growth in Q2 2024: A Closer Look at the Latest GDP and Corporate Profits Data

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the "second" estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a stronger economic performance than initially reported. The updated figures show a robust annual growth rate of 3.0% for real GDP, marking a notable acceleration from the 1.4% growth observed in the first quarter of the year. This positive momentum underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various global and domestic challenges.

Key Highlights from the Second Quarter GDP Report

  1. Real GDP Growth: The real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, up from the "advance" estimate of 2.8%. This revision is based on more comprehensive data, particularly reflecting stronger-than-expected consumer spending. In comparison, the GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4%, highlighting a significant acceleration.

  2. Components of GDP: The growth in GDP was driven primarily by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. However, these gains were partially offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment. Additionally, imports, which subtract from the GDP calculation, increased during the quarter.

  3. Current-Dollar GDP: On a current-dollar basis, GDP increased by 5.5% or $383.2 billion in Q2, reaching a total level of $28.65 trillion. This is an upward revision of $23.2 billion from the previous estimate.

  4. Price Indices: The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.4%, slightly up from the prior estimate of 2.3%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, increased by 2.5%, though this is a slight downward revision from the earlier estimate of 2.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased by 2.8%.

Insights on Personal Income and Savings

  • Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income saw an increase of $233.6 billion in Q2, which is a downward revision of $4.0 billion from the earlier estimate. This rise was primarily driven by higher compensation and personal current transfer receipts.

  • Disposable Personal Income: Disposable personal income, after taxes and adjustments, increased by $183.0 billion or 3.6%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income, which accounts for inflation, grew by 1.0%.

  • Personal Saving Rate: The personal saving rate, defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was revised down to 3.3% from the previous estimate of 3.5%.

Corporate Profits Rebound in Q2 2024

A significant highlight of the report is the rebound in corporate profits in Q2 2024. Profits from current production increased by $57.6 billion, following a decline of $47.1 billion in Q1. This marks a substantial recovery and suggests improved profitability among U.S. businesses.

  • Sectoral Performance: Profits of domestic financial corporations increased by $46.4 billion, though this is a deceleration from the $65.0 billion increase in Q1. Nonfinancial corporations, on the other hand, saw profits rise by $29.2 billion, reversing a decline of $114.5 billion in the previous quarter. However, profits from the rest of the world decreased by $18.0 billion, contrasting with a $2.3 billion increase in Q1.

Understanding the Revisions and Future Releases

The upward revision in the GDP estimate for Q2 was mainly due to stronger consumer spending, offset by downward adjustments in other areas like nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and government spending. The BEA will continue to refine these estimates as more data becomes available.

Looking ahead, the BEA will release the third estimate of GDP and revised corporate profits for Q2 2024 on September 26, 2024. This will coincide with the annual update of the National Economic Accounts, which includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income.

Conclusion

The latest GDP figures for Q2 2024 indicate a resilient and growing U.S. economy, bolstered by robust consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits. While certain sectors, such as residential fixed investment, have shown weakness, the overall economic landscape appears positive. As we await further data and the next round of estimates, these findings provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.

Stay tuned for more updates as the BEA releases additional data in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second

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18 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 25 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 18 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 25 April 2024.

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Understanding the First Quarter GDP Growth of 2024

The U.S. economy started 2024 with a more moderate growth pace, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate showing a 1.6% annual growth rate in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. This figure marks a slowdown from the 3.4% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, hinting at a mixed economic landscape as the year unfolds.

Key Drivers of Growth

The modest growth in GDP this quarter was primarily driven by increased consumer spending, especially on services like healthcare and financial services. This was supplemented by gains in residential fixed investment and nonresidential fixed investment, as well as heightened activity in state and local government spending. However, these positive contributions were somewhat offset by a decline in private inventory investment and an increase in imports, which act as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.

Among the standout sectors, the report highlighted a notable increase in intellectual property products and a surge in compensation for state and local government employees. On the downside, the automotive and energy sectors experienced declines, pulling the goods segment down despite the broader gains in services.

Economic Deceleration Points

The deceleration in GDP growth from the previous quarter can be attributed to slower consumer spending, a dip in federal government spending, and a decrease in exports. Although residential fixed investment showed acceleration, it wasn't enough to fully counterbalance the slowdowns elsewhere.

Inflation and Income Trends

Inflation indicators from the first quarter reveal a continued pressure on prices, with the price index for gross domestic purchases rising to 3.1% from 1.9% in the prior quarter. Similarly, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index climbed to 3.4%, up from 1.8%. These figures suggest an uptick in inflationary pressures, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

On the income front, current-dollar personal income saw a substantial increase of $407.1 billion, a significant rise compared to the $230.2 billion increase in the previous quarter. This boost in personal income was largely fueled by rises in compensation and personal current transfer receipts. However, the personal saving rate dipped to 3.6% from 4.0%, indicating that despite higher incomes, savings were lower—perhaps a reflection of increased consumer confidence or rising costs.

Looking Ahead

While the first quarter GDP report shows growth, the mix of accelerating and decelerating factors across different sectors paints a complex picture of the U.S. economy. The forthcoming "second" GDP estimate due on May 30, 2024, will provide a clearer view as it will include more complete data.

Investors, policymakers, and analysts will be watching closely to see if these trends hold, particularly with regard to inflation and how it might shape responses from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, individuals will feel the impact of these economic shifts in their daily lives, from employment prospects to purchasing power.

In summary, the first quarter of 2024 has set the stage for a year that could be marked by careful balancing acts in economic policy and personal finance management, amidst a landscape of gradual growth and shifting investment dynamics.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

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48 pips potential profit in 2 seconds on 25 January 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 48 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 25 January 2024.

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The advance estimate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023 shows a 3.3% annual growth rate, a slight deceleration from the 4.9% increase in the third quarter. Key growth drivers included consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investments in nonresidential and residential sectors. Consumer spending rose notably in services and goods, with significant contributions from health care and recreational goods. Increases in federal spending were more evident in nondefense areas, while state and local government spending also rose.

Both imports and exports increased, with exports led by petroleum and financial services. However, the fourth quarter saw a slowdown in private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending.

For the entire year of 2023, the real GDP grew by 2.5%, supported by consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, government spending, and exports, reaching a current-dollar GDP of $27.36 trillion, a 6.3% increase. Inflation indicators, such as the price index for gross domestic purchases and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased but at a slower rate compared to 2022. Personal income and disposable personal income also saw increases, though the personal saving rate dropped slightly to 4.0% in the fourth quarter.

The report, based on preliminary data, is subject to revision, with a more comprehensive update scheduled for February 28, 2024.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate

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52 pips potential profit in 3 seconds on 21 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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The third estimate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2023, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reveals several key economic trends:

  1. Real GDP Growth: There was a 4.9% annual increase in real GDP, slightly lower than the previously estimated 5.2%. This revision mainly reflects a decrease in consumer spending.

  2. Current-dollar GDP: Increased by 8.3%, reaching $27.61 trillion, with a minor downward revision from the prior estimate.

  3. GDP by Industry: Growth was seen across various sectors, with private goods-producing industries rising 10.2%, private services-producing industries 4.1%, and government 2.0%. Fourteen out of 22 industry groups contributed to this growth.

  4. Inflation Indicators: The price index for gross domestic purchases went up by 2.9%, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.6%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose by 2.0%.

  5. Personal Income and Savings: There was a notable increase in current-dollar personal income and a 2.9% rise in disposable personal income. The personal saving rate was revised upwards to 4.2%.

  6. Corporate Profits: Profits from current production rose by $108.7 billion, with increases in both financial and nonfinancial corporate sectors.

This report provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. economy's performance, indicating sustained growth with adjustments in consumer spending and corporate profits.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-estimate-and-gdp

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