47 pips potential profit in 45 seconds on 8 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 8 December 2023.

USDJPY (30 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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In December 2023, consumer sentiment in the United States experienced a substantial rebound, with a 13.2% increase from the previous month and a notable 16.1% improvement compared to December 2022. This surge, as reflected in the Index of Consumer Sentiment, marks a recovery from declines observed over the past four months. The Current Economic Conditions index also rose by 8.3% month-to-month and exhibited a remarkable 24.2% improvement compared to the same period last year. Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations increased by 16.9% compared to November 2023 and showed a 10.7% improvement year-over-year.

The positive shift in sentiment is attributed to improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% to 3.1%, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Long-run inflation expectations also decreased from 3.2% to 2.8%, matching the second-lowest reading since July 2021. Despite these declines, long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.

All five components of the consumer sentiment index rose, with significant surges observed in the short and long-run outlook for business conditions. The improved sentiment was widespread, cutting across various demographics, including age, income, education, geography, and political identification.

Approximately 14% of consumers spontaneously mentioned the potential impact of next year's elections, and their sentiment appeared to incorporate expectations favorable to the economy. The next data release is scheduled for Friday, December 22, 2023, for the final December data, providing further insights into the evolving economic landscape.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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35 pips potential profit in 61 seconds on 8 December 2023, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 35 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 8 December 2023.

USDJPY (23 pips)

EURUSD (12 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The Employment Situation Summary for November 2023, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides key insights into the labor market. Here are the highlights:

Household Survey Data:

1. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate decreased to 3.7 percent, with 199,000 new jobs added in November.

2. Demographic Unemployment Rates:

   • Teenagers: 11.4 percent (down in November).

   • Adult men: 3.7 percent.

   • Adult women: 3.1 percent.

   • Whites: 3.3 percent.

   • Blacks: 5.8 percent.

   • Asians: 3.5 percent.

   • Hispanics: 4.6 percent.

3. Long-Term Unemployment: The number of long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased to 1.2 million, accounting for 18.3 percent of all unemployed persons.

4. Labor Force Participation: The employment-population ratio increased to 60.5 percent. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.8 percent.

5. Part-Time Employment: The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 million in November.

6. Persons Not in the Labor Force: The number of persons not in the labor force who wanted a job was 5.3 million, little different from the prior month.

Establishment Survey Data:

1. Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Increased by 199,000 in November, with job gains in health care, government, and manufacturing. Retail trade employment declined.

2. Industry-Specific Employment:

   • Health care: +77,000 jobs.

   • Government: +49,000 jobs.

   • Manufacturing: +28,000 jobs (reflecting the return of workers from a strike).

   • Retail trade: -38,000 jobs.

   • Leisure and hospitality: +40,000 jobs.

   • Social assistance: +16,000 jobs.

   • Information: +10,000 jobs (motion picture and sound recording industries added 17,000 jobs).

   • Transportation and warehousing: Little change.

   • Other major industries: Little change.

3. Average Hourly Earnings: Rose by 12 cents (0.4 percent) to $34.10 for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 4.0 percent.

4. Average Workweek: Edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls.

5. Revisions: The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000, and the change for October remained at +150,000. Combined, employment in September and October is 35,000 lower than previously reported.

The next Employment Situation report for December is scheduled for release on Friday, January 5, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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29 pips potential profit in 7 seconds on 7 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 29 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 7 December 2023.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The latest release on Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims in the United States for the week ending December 2, 2023, indicates a slight increase in seasonally adjusted initial claims by 1,000, reaching 220,000. The 4-week moving average rose to 220,750. The insured unemployment rate decreased to 1.2%. Unadjusted data saw an increase in actual initial claims to 293,511, up 46.9% from the previous week. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 1.2%, and continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs decreased to 1,579,159.

Noteworthy state-specific data reveals the highest insured unemployment rates in New Jersey, Alaska, California, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Washington. Wisconsin experienced the largest increase in initial claims, while California saw the most significant decrease.

Federal civilian employees and newly discharged veterans claimed fewer benefits, with a decrease in both initial and continued weeks claimed. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive overview of unemployment trends at both national and state levels, including insights into specific demographic groups.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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36 pips potential profit in 130 seconds on 5 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 36 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 5 December 2023.

USDJPY (25 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Analyzing the October 2023 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report: What the Numbers Reveal about the U.S. Labor Market

Introduction: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover report for October 2023, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the country's labor market. This comprehensive report covers key indicators such as job openings, hires, and separations, shedding light on trends that impact various industries and employment sectors.

Job Openings: A Closer Look: The report highlights that the number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October, reflecting a decline of 617,000. This dip is particularly noteworthy, and the job openings rate, standing at 5.3 percent, decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the month and 1.1 points over the year.

The health care and social assistance, finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing sectors experienced declines in job openings. However, the information sector saw an increase of 39,000 job openings. This variance among sectors indicates the diverse landscape of employment opportunities in the U.S.

Hires and Separations: A Balanced Perspective: October 2023 saw relatively stable numbers in hires and total separations, with 5.9 million hires and 5.6 million total separations. The hires rate remained at 3.7 percent, demonstrating a steady pace in recruitment activities. Accommodation and food services, however, experienced a decrease in the number of hires by 110,000, suggesting a potential shift in this sector.

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. The quits rate, a measure of employees' willingness or ability to leave jobs, remained at 2.3 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Professional and business services saw an increase in quits by 97,000. Layoffs and discharges remained stable at 1.6 million, with no significant changes across industries.

Establishment Size Class: A Nuanced Perspective: The report breaks down the data by establishment size class, revealing interesting patterns. In October, job openings, hires, and total separations rates remained relatively stable for establishments with 1 to 9 employees. However, establishments with 5,000 or more employees saw a decrease in the quits rate and total separations rate, offering insights into the dynamics of larger enterprises.

Conclusion: The October 2023 Job Openings and Labor Turnover report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. labor market, showcasing both challenges and opportunities. The decline in job openings and shifts in hires across sectors indicate a dynamic environment. As we await the November 2023 estimates, policymakers, businesses, and job seekers can use this data to make informed decisions and navigate the evolving landscape of the U.S. labor market.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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Mastering News Trading: Strategies and Risks Explained (new video)

Follow our YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/@wearehaawks377 for more videos about trading.

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Transcript:

Hello, traders and investors! Welcome back. I'm Angelina, and today, we're diving into the exciting world of news trading.

We'll explore what it is, how it works, and most importantly, whether it's a profitable strategy.

Section 1: Understanding News Trading

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let's talk about what news trading is all about. News trading is a strategy where traders leverage breaking news to predict and profit from market movements. This can range from economic indicators and earnings reports to geopolitical events that shake up the financial landscape.

Section 2: The Dynamics of News Trading

So, how does news trading work, and why do traders find it so intriguing?

The idea is to anticipate how the market will react to news and position yourself to benefit from the ensuing price movements.

It's a game of speed and accuracy, requiring traders to act swiftly before the market stabilizes.

Section 3: Key Considerations for News Trading

Now, let's break down some crucial considerations for news trading. Firstly, news events often bring increased market volatility. This volatility can be an opportunity or a challenge, depending on how well you navigate it.

Section 4: The Role of Timing and Execution

Timing is everything in news trading. The faster you can act, the better your chances of success. Lucky for you, we provide one of the fastest machine-readable news feeds for macro-economic and commodity data.

Delayed execution, or slippage, can erode potential profits, emphasizing the need for quick and efficient order execution.

Section 5: Risk Management in News Trading

News trading is not without its risks, and effective risk management is paramount. Unexpected market reactions can lead to losses, so setting stop-loss orders and managing risk is essential to protect your capital.

Section 6: Profitability in News Trading

Now, the million-dollar question: Is news trading profitable?

Success in news trading depends on accurate predictions, swift execution, and robust risk management. Experienced traders with a deep understanding of market dynamics may find profitability, but it's not without challenges.

Conclusion: News Trading Unveiled

That's a wrap on news trading! Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting, understanding the dynamics of news trading is crucial.

Share your thoughts in the comments below, hit the like button if you found this video valuable, and don't forget to subscribe to our free news trading analysis at www.haawks.com. You find the link in the description.Until next time, happy trading!

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1668 pips potential profit in 10 seconds on 23 November 2023, analysis on forex fx news trading USDTRY first on Turkey interest rate decision data

According to our analysis USDTRY moved 1668 pips on Turkey interest rate decision (TCMB) data on 23 November 2023.

USDTRY (1668 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Navigating Economic Tides: A Closer Look at Turkey's Monetary Policy Decision and Exchange Rate Movement

November 23, 2023

In a decisive move, the Monetary Policy Committee of Turkey recently announced a significant adjustment to the policy rate, sending ripples through financial markets and impacting the USD/TRY exchange rate. Here's a closer look at the key developments and factors shaping Turkey's economic landscape.

Monetary Policy Committee's Decision: Raising the Policy Rate

Led by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, the Committee decided to raise the policy rate, specifically the one-week repo auction rate, from 35 percent to 40 percent. This move, though not unexpected, marked a departure from the initially anticipated rate of 37.5 percent.

Inflation Dynamics and Domestic Demand: A Balancing Act

The decision was grounded in a careful evaluation of various economic indicators. Headline inflation experienced a marginal decrease in October, aligning with the projections outlined in the recent Inflation Report. However, persistent inflation pressures emanating from the existing level of domestic demand, stickiness in services inflation, and geopolitical risks necessitated a continued focus on monetary tightening.

Exchange Rate Dynamics: USD/TRY Movement

Following the Committee's decision, the USD/TRY exchange rate exhibited a significant downward movement of 1668 pips. This movement can be attributed to several factors, including the widening interest rate differential between the Turkish lira and the US dollar and shifts in market sentiment.

Committee's Outlook: Sustaining Price Stability

The Committee emphasized that the current level of monetary tightness is approaching the necessary threshold for establishing a disinflation course. While the pace of monetary tightening is expected to decelerate, the commitment to maintaining tightness remains steadfast to ensure sustained price stability.

Market Mechanisms and Financial Stability: Strengthening Foundations

Efforts to simplify and enhance the micro- and macroprudential framework continue to strengthen market mechanisms and bolster macro financial stability. Regulatory measures aimed at increasing the share of Turkish lira deposits and ongoing monetary tightening are anticipated to fortify the transmission mechanism and improve the funding composition of the banking system.

Looking Ahead: A Transparent and Predictable Approach

The Committee affirms its commitment to a transparent, data-driven, and predictable framework for decision-making. The communication approach emphasizes ongoing monitoring of inflation indicators and underlying trends, with a commitment to using all available tools to achieve the primary objective of price stability.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainties with Strategic Moves

As Turkey navigates through economic uncertainties, the recent monetary policy decision and the subsequent exchange rate movement reflect strategic moves to address inflationary pressures and enhance financial stability. The coming days will see the effects of these decisions unfold, with the Committee poised to adapt to evolving economic dynamics.

Source: https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/7e715cde-e17c-412d-8f09-8009ebf2af83/ANO2023-45.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-7e715cde-e17c-412d-8f09-8009ebf2af83-oLXRzbf

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26 pips potential profit in 69 seconds on 22 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment data

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 26 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 22 November 2023.

EURUSD (10 pips)

USDJPY (16 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Navigating Economic Crosswinds: Consumer Sentiment Update for November 2023

Introduction: In our latest consumer sentiment update for November 2023, we observe a nuanced landscape as the index experiences its fourth consecutive month of decline. This month's 2.5 index point drop, or 4% decrease, reveals a delicate balance of both positive and negative factors influencing consumer perceptions.

Key Points:

1. Mixed Economic Conditions:

   • While consumer sentiment declined, there were improvements in current economic conditions and personal finance expectations.

   • Expectations of business conditions, especially in the long run, took a notable hit, plunging by 15% to its lowest since July 2022.

2. Age Group Dynamics:

   • Younger and middle-aged consumers showed a significant decline in economic attitudes.

   • Sentiment among those aged 55 and older improved from October, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives.

3. Inflation Concerns:

   • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, indicating heightened concerns compared to October's 4.2%.

   • Long-run inflation expectations reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011, despite the observed slowdown in inflation. Consumers express worries about a potential reversal in the coming months and years.

4. Director's Insight:

   • Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director, notes the delicate interplay of factors contributing to the sentiment decline. She highlights the juxtaposition of improved personal financial expectations against concerns about long-term business conditions.

Conclusion: As we navigate the economic crosswinds of November 2023, the consumer sentiment report provides valuable insights. While some indicators point towards optimism, the cautionary notes, especially regarding inflation and long-term business conditions, underscore the complexity of the economic landscape. Keeping an eye on future releases will be crucial for understanding how these dynamics continue to evolve. Stay tuned for our next update on Friday, December 8, 2023, as we delve into the preliminary December data and continue to decode the pulse of consumer sentiment.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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24 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 22 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Durable Goods Orders data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 24 pips on US Durable Goods Orders data on 22 November 2023.

USDJPY (15 pips)

EURUSD (9 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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In October 2023, new orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States decreased by $16.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $279.4 billion, marking the third decline in the last four months. This followed a 4.0 percent increase in September. Excluding transportation, new orders remained relatively unchanged, while excluding defense, new orders decreased by 6.7 percent. The decline was driven by the transportation equipment sector, which saw a significant drop of $16.0 billion or 14.8 percent to $92.1 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau will continue to monitor and report on durable goods manufacturing trends.

Source: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html

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57 ticks potential profit in 42 seconds on 16 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 57 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 16 November 2023.

Natural gas (57 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report provides information on the current status of natural gas storage in the United States. Here's a summary of the key data for the week ending November 10, 2023:

Working Gas in Underground Storage:

• Total working gas in storage: 3,833 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

• Net change from the previous week: +60 Bcf (an increase)

• Working gas stocks compared to last year: +198 Bcf

• Working gas stocks compared to the five-year average: +203 Bcf

Regional Breakdown:

1. East Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 931 Bcf

   • Net change: +7 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +51 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +34 Bcf

2. Midwest Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 1,116 Bcf

   • Net change: +11 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +34 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +34 Bcf

3. Mountain Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 256 Bcf

   • Net change: +3 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +48 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +46 Bcf

4. Pacific Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 292 Bcf

   • Net change: +8 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +50 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +16 Bcf

5. South Central Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 1,238 Bcf

   • Net change: +32 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +65 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +65 Bcf

   • Salt Caverns: 332 Bcf (+19 Bcf)

   • Nonsalt Facilities: 906 Bcf (+13 Bcf)

Summary:

• Total working gas in storage is within the five-year historical range.

• The overall increase in working gas compared to the previous week was 60 Bcf.

• Stocks are higher than both last year and the five-year average by 198 Bcf and 203 Bcf, respectively.

It's worth noting that the data is subject to independent rounding, and totals may not equal the sum of components. The next release of the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for November 22, 2023.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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17 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 16 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 17 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 16 November 2023.

USDJPY (12 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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In the week ending November 11, 2023, the United States saw a rise in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted initial unemployment claims. The seasonally adjusted figure reached 231,000, reflecting a notable increase of 13,000 from the previous week, with a 4-week moving average of 220,250. The unadjusted data reported 215,874 actual initial claims, marking a week-to-week increase of 0.8 percent. Despite seasonal expectations for a decrease, the figures demonstrate a rise.

The insured unemployment rate also showed an increase, reaching 1.3 percent, a 0.1 percentage point uptick from the previous week. The number of insured unemployed individuals rose to 1,865,000, marking the highest level since November 27, 2021. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.1 percent, with 1,581,345 individuals claiming benefits, a decrease of 1.6 percent from the preceding week.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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