Viewing entries tagged
cfd

October 2026 WASDE: Corn, Soybeans and Wheat Reprice Lower on Heavier Supply

October 10, 2026

According to our analysis ZC went down 72 ticks, ZW went down 52 ticks and ZS went down 76 ticks (total: 200 ticks) on USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data on 9 October 2026.

2134 pips cumulative potential — indicative performance for 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

October 2026 WASDE Drives Broad Repricing Across Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

USDA raised key U.S. supply estimates across the grain complex, including a materially larger corn yield, production forecast and projected carryout, prompting a synchronized decline across CBOT agricultural futures.

9 October 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA WASDE • 200 measured ticks

The October 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates delivered a broadly heavier U.S. supply outlook across corn, soybeans and wheat, generating a rapid repricing across the CBOT grain complex.

The most significant statistical deviation was concentrated in corn. USDA raised the national yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, compared with a Dow Jones survey average of 177.6 bushels per acre.

U.S. corn production was consequently raised to 16.034 billion bushels, while projected 2026/27 ending stocks increased to 1.849 billion bushels.

Soybean production and ending stocks also moved higher, while the U.S. wheat balance incorporated lower exports and higher projected carryout.

HAAWKS release-window measurement: soybean futures ZS fell 76 ticks, corn futures ZC fell 72 ticks, and Chicago wheat ZW fell 52 ticks around publication of the October WASDE.

Immediate Cross-Grain Market Response

Soybeans — ZS −76 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Corn — ZC −72 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Wheat — ZW −52 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Across the three contracts, HAAWKS measured 200 instrument-specific ticks of absolute release-window movement.

These figures describe contract-specific price changes and should not be interpreted as standardized returns. Tick values differ by futures contract.

October WASDE vs. Pre-Release Expectations

The market significance of the October update was driven not simply by the direction of USDA revisions, but by the difference between the official figures and the expectations embedded before publication.

The estimates below are from the Dow Jones survey of analysts, as reproduced by DTN ahead of the October 9 release.

Indicator	September	Dow Jones Average	October USDA	Difference vs. Average
Corn Yield	178.5 bpa	177.6 bpa	181.2 bpa	+3.6 bpa
Corn Production	15.800B bu	15.716B bu	16.034B bu	+318M bu
Corn Ending Stocks	1.567B bu	1.677B bu	1.849B bu	+172M bu
Soybean Yield	52.8 bpa	52.9 bpa	53.1 bpa	+0.2 bpa
Soybean Production	4.535B bu	4.541B bu	4.562B bu	+21M bu
Soybean Ending Stocks	310M bu	311M bu	315M bu	+4M bu
Wheat Ending Stocks	717M bu	722M bu	740M bu	+18M bu

Estimate source: Dow Jones analyst survey reproduced by DTN. Consensus estimates can differ across surveys and data providers; this article therefore identifies the specific survey used for each comparison.

HAAWKS view: the corn balance carried the largest surprise relative to expectations. The October corn yield, production and ending-stock estimates all came in materially above the cited survey averages, while soybean and wheat balances also incorporated somewhat larger U.S. supplies or carryout.

Corn: Supply Expansion Dominates the October Update

Corn contained the clearest supply-side revision in the October WASDE.

USDA increased the national yield by 2.7 bushels per acre from September to 181.2 bushels per acre.

That was 3.6 bushels per acre above the Dow Jones survey average of 177.6 and near the upper end of the cited 173.2 to 182.1 bpa estimate range.

U.S. Corn Yield 181.2 Bushels per acre

U.S. Production 16.034B Bushels

Ending Stocks 1.849B 2026/27 bushels

The higher yield lifted projected production by 234 million bushels from September to 16.034 billion.

Beginning stocks were also raised by 173 million bushels to reflect the updated September 1 inventory position.

USDA increased projected demand as well. Total use rose by 125 million bushels, including higher feed and residual use, ethanol use and exports.

2026/27 Corn Balance	September	October	Monthly Change
Beginning Stocks	1.922B bu	2.095B bu	+173M
Production	15.800B bu	16.034B bu	+234M
Feed & Residual	5.950B bu	6.000B bu	+50M
Ethanol	5.600B bu	5.650B bu	+50M
Exports	3.275B bu	3.300B bu	+25M
Ending Stocks	1.567B bu	1.849B bu	+282M

The important balance-sheet result was that the increase in supply substantially exceeded the increase in projected use.

USDA consequently raised ending stocks by 282 million bushels and reduced the projected season-average farm price by $0.10 to $4.70 per bushel.

Global Corn Stocks Also Exceed Expectations

The U.S. supply revision carried through into the global balance.

USDA raised projected 2026/27 world corn ending stocks to 280.4 million metric tons, up from 272.1 million in September.

The Dow Jones survey average was 273.9 million metric tons, with an estimate range of 272.0 to 279.8 million.

The official estimate therefore came in approximately 6.5 million metric tons above the survey average and slightly above the highest estimate in the cited range.

USDA attributed most of the increase in global corn stocks to the larger U.S. inventory position.

Soybeans: Record Production Estimate Moves Higher

The soybean revisions were smaller than those in corn, but the U.S. balance still shifted toward greater supply.

USDA raised the national soybean yield to 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from September and 0.2 bushel above the Dow Jones survey average.

Production increased by 27 million bushels from September to a record 4.562 billion bushels.

U.S. Soybean Yield 53.1 Bushels per acre

U.S. Production 4.562B Bushels

Ending Stocks 315M 2026/27 bushels

Beginning stocks were reduced by 10 million bushels, partially offsetting the larger crop.

USDA also increased exports by 10 million bushels to 1.695 billion, while the crush forecast remained unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels.

The net result was a 5-million-bushel increase in projected U.S. soybean ending stocks to 315 million bushels, compared with the Dow Jones average estimate of 311 million.

2026/27 Soybean Balance	September	October	Monthly Change
Yield	52.8 bpa	53.1 bpa	+0.3 bpa
Production	4.535B bu	4.562B bu	+27M
Exports	1.685B bu	1.695B bu	+10M
Ending Stocks	310M bu	315M bu	+5M

Globally, soybean ending stocks increased slightly to 124.3 million metric tons, compared with the Dow Jones average of 123.8 million.

Unlike corn, the soybean balance did not contain one dominant statistical surprise. Rather, several moderately heavier supply components arrived together.

Wheat: Lower Exports Raise U.S. Carryout

The October U.S. wheat outlook shifted toward higher supplies, increased domestic use, reduced exports and larger ending stocks.

USDA projected U.S. wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels, while exports were reduced by 25 million bushels to 750 million.

Feed and residual use increased by 10 million bushels, but the export reduction was large enough to push projected ending stocks higher.

U.S. Wheat Production 1.534B Bushels

U.S. Exports 750M Down 25M from September

Ending Stocks 740M Up 23M from September

Projected U.S. ending stocks increased from 717 million to 740 million bushels.

That was also above the Dow Jones survey average of 722 million bushels.

USDA reduced the season-average wheat price forecast by $0.10 to $6.30 per bushel.

The global balance was less directional. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 276.0 million metric tons, slightly below both September and the cited 276.8-million-ton survey average.

Three Contracts, Different Statistical Profiles

Corn

The largest deviations from expectations were concentrated in corn, with materially higher yield, production, domestic ending stocks and global ending stocks.

Soybeans

Soybean yield, production and ending stocks all moved modestly above the cited survey averages, producing a somewhat heavier balance than anticipated.

Wheat

U.S. wheat carryout moved higher as exports were reduced, although global ending stocks remained broadly stable and slightly below the cited survey average.

Market Response

Despite different underlying statistical profiles, HAAWKS measured simultaneous downside repricing across ZC, ZS and ZW during the immediate release window.

Why WASDE Requires Multi-Field Processing

WASDE cannot be reduced to a single production or ending-stock number. The report updates multiple interconnected components of domestic and global supply-and-demand balances simultaneously.

Information Set	Relevant Fields	Analytical Function
Production	Yield, harvested acreage and crop size	Establishes the current domestic supply outlook.
Beginning Stocks	Carry-in from the prior marketing year	Can materially change total supply before current crop production is considered.
Domestic Demand	Feed, ethanol, crush, seed and residual	Determines how rapidly available supply is projected to be consumed domestically.
Exports	U.S. export forecasts and global trade flows	Connects domestic balances with global demand and relative competitiveness.
Ending Stocks	U.S. and global carryout	Summarizes the residual balance after projected supply and usage.
Price Forecasts	Season-average farm prices	Provides USDA's updated price framework after balance-sheet revisions.

Implications for Event-Driven Commodity Strategies

Consensus Is Part of the Information Set

A production number has different market information content depending on what was expected immediately before publication.

In October, the corn production forecast of 16.034 billion bushels was approximately 318 million bushels above the Dow Jones survey average.

Several Fields Can Reinforce the Same Direction

The corn signal was strengthened because higher yield and production arrived alongside larger beginning stocks and substantially higher projected ending stocks.

Demand was increased, but not enough to absorb the supply revision.

Not Every Crop Has the Same Information Structure

Soybeans delivered smaller differences relative to expectations, while wheat combined higher U.S. carryout with a comparatively stable global balance.

A robust framework therefore needs crop-specific and field-specific interpretation rather than a single aggregate classification.

Domestic and Global Balances Should Be Processed Together

Corn provided a particularly clear example in October. Larger U.S. stocks flowed directly into a substantial increase in projected world carryout.

In wheat, by contrast, higher U.S. ending stocks were accompanied by slightly lower projected global ending stocks.

Release Vintage Matters

Systematic historical research benefits from preserving the exact USDA figures and consensus expectations available at the publication timestamp.

Using only subsequently revised historical databases can obscure the actual information set that markets processed in real time.

Tick Movement Is Instrument-Specific

The measured ZS, ZC and ZW movements describe contract-specific price changes around publication. The 200-tick aggregate is a sum of absolute contract movements, not a standardized portfolio return.

Release-Window Repricing vs. the Broader Session

HAAWKS measured ZS 76 ticks lower, ZC 72 ticks lower and ZW 52 ticks lower during the immediate response to the October WASDE.

These measurements isolate the first repricing around the scheduled 12:00 p.m. ET publication rather than the direction of each market over the full trading session.

Subsequent price action can reflect liquidity, positioning, harvest progress, export demand, weather, inter-commodity spreads and broader commodity-market conditions.

HAAWKS view: October illustrates how a synchronized cross-grain move can emerge from different underlying data structures. Corn delivered the clearest supply surprise, while soybeans and wheat contained more moderate revisions. Real-time interpretation therefore requires both rapid extraction and field-level differentiation.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The October 9 USDA WASDE produced a broad downside repricing across major CBOT grain contracts.

Corn contained the largest statistical surprise. USDA raised the national yield to 181.2 bushels per acre and production to 16.034 billion bushels, both materially above the cited Dow Jones survey averages.

Projected U.S. corn ending stocks increased to 1.849 billion bushels, approximately 172 million above the cited survey average and 282 million above the September forecast.

Soybean production increased to 4.562 billion bushels and ending stocks to 315 million bushels, while U.S. wheat ending stocks increased to 740 million bushels as projected exports were reduced.

HAAWKS measured immediate release-window movements of ZS −76 ticks, ZC −72 ticks and ZW −52 ticks, equivalent to 200 instrument-specific ticks across the three contracts.

For professional market infrastructure, the October release reinforces the importance of processing WASDE as a multidimensional information set. Yield, production, beginning stocks, domestic consumption, exports, U.S. ending stocks and global balances can all change at the same publication timestamp.

The ability to evaluate those fields against pre-release expectations in real time is central to understanding the first market response.

Real-Time Data. Structured Intelligence. Professional Markets.

Real-Time Agricultural Data for Professional Markets

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency, structured macroeconomic and commodity data covering the United States, Canada and Europe.

The feed supports systematic strategies, professional trading desks and latency-sensitive applications requiring field-level economic and commodity data as official releases become public.

API access is available through infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, October 9, 2026
Official source for U.S. and global corn, soybean and wheat supply-and-demand forecasts.
USDA — WASDE Report
Official USDA WASDE publication page and release schedule.
DTN — October USDA Reports Preview
Source for the Dow Jones pre-release analyst survey averages and estimate ranges used in this analysis.
DTN — October WASDE Report Summary
Additional post-release comparison of USDA figures with the Dow Jones analyst survey.
HAAWKS internal tick-level market analysis — October 9, 2026
Source for the measured immediate release-window movements: ZS −76 ticks, ZC −72 ticks and ZW −52 ticks.

Built for traders who compete on speed. HAAWKS G4A delivers low-latency, machine-readable macroeconomic and commodity data via API infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Explore the feed, share your feedback, or contact us to request a free trial for financial institutions.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

EIA Petroleum Data: WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Product Draws Offset Crude Build

September 30, 2026

According to our analysis WTI crude oil moved 24 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 30 September 2026.

1790 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (24 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

WTI Rises 24 Ticks as Sharp Product Draws Offset an Unexpected Crude Build

The September 30 EIA petroleum release delivered conflicting inventory signals: U.S. commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell substantially more than expected.

September 30, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • EIA Weekly Petroleum Data

The September 30 U.S. Energy Information Administration petroleum release presented professional commodity desks with a distinctly two-sided inventory signal.

Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 922,000 barrels during the week ending September 25, directly opposing expectations for an inventory draw.

The refined-product side of the balance sheet, however, told a very different story.

Gasoline inventories declined by approximately 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by approximately 2.3 million barrels. Both draws were significantly larger than market expectations.

HAAWKS release-window measurement: WTI crude oil moved approximately 24 ticks higher following the 10:30 a.m. ET release. The initial price response suggests that the market placed substantial weight on tightening refined-product inventories despite the unexpected build in crude.

Inventory Results vs. Market Expectations

Commercial Crude +0.922M Reuters expectation: −0.264M barrels

Gasoline −1.7M Reuters expectation: −0.485M

Distillates −2.3M Reuters expectation: −0.190M

WTI Reaction +24 Ticks HAAWKS release-window measurement

Petroleum Field	Market Expectation	EIA Actual	Surprise	Market Read-Through
Commercial Crude Oil	−0.264M barrels	+0.922M barrels	Build vs. expected draw	Negative for the crude balance in isolation.
Gasoline	−0.485M barrels	−1.7M barrels	Larger draw	Supportive product-market signal and substantially tighter than consensus.
Distillates	−0.190M barrels	−2.3M barrels	Much larger draw	Particularly relevant given already constrained diesel and heating-oil inventories.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	+0.553M barrels	Build	A negative counter-signal at the NYMEX WTI delivery hub.

WTI Moves 24 Ticks Higher

HAAWKS tick-level analysis recorded a rapid upward response in WTI immediately following the scheduled petroleum release.

+24 WTI Crude Oil Ticks

Measured during the immediate release window following the September 30, 2026 EIA petroleum data.

The move is notable because the crude inventory headline itself was weaker than expected.

A model reacting only to the commercial crude figure would have seen a 922,000-barrel build against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw. That represents a swing of almost 1.2 million barrels relative to consensus.

Yet WTI initially moved higher. The broader petroleum balance helps explain why.

The Product Draws Were the More Important Tightness Signal

Gasoline and distillates both delivered materially larger inventory draws than expected.

Gasoline stocks fell from approximately 206.0 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, a decline of about 1.7 million barrels.

Distillate inventories fell from approximately 107.4 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, a decline of roughly 2.3 million barrels.

The absolute stock levels are also relevant. Gasoline inventories remained approximately 7% below their five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories were approximately 14% below the five-year average.

HAAWKS view: the crude build weakened the upstream inventory signal, but the significantly larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate draws reinforced an already tight refined-product market. For WTI pricing, the complete petroleum balance carried more information than the crude headline alone.

Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories Fell 7 Million Barrels

Another important detail is that aggregate commercial petroleum stocks declined despite the rise in crude inventories.

EIA data showed total petroleum stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling from approximately 1.2514 billion barrels to 1.2443 billion barrels.

That represents a weekly decline of approximately 7.0 million barrels.

Inventory Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Commercial Crude	427.3M barrels	426.4M barrels	+0.9M
Gasoline	204.4M barrels	206.0M barrels	−1.7M
Distillates	105.2M barrels	107.4M barrels	−2.3M
Total Commercial Stocks ex-SPR	1,244.3M barrels	1,251.4M barrels	−7.0M

This is one reason the petroleum release should be evaluated as a multi-variable balance rather than as a single crude-inventory number.

Lower Refinery Runs Help Explain the Inventory Split

U.S. refinery activity slowed meaningfully during the reporting week.

Refinery crude inputs fell by approximately 554,000 barrels per day to 16.257 million barrels per day.

Refinery utilization declined by 1.5 percentage points to 92.5%.

This combination provides an important explanation for the apparently contradictory stock movements.

Lower refinery throughput reduces the amount of crude being processed, which can contribute to a build in crude stocks. At the same time, lower refinery output can tighten gasoline and distillate inventories.

Balance-sheet interpretation: the crude build and product draws were not independent events. Lower refinery runs provided a common mechanism linking the two sides of the report.

Cushing Added a Negative Counter-Signal

Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma increased by approximately 553,000 barrels.

EIA data put Cushing stocks at approximately 24.3 million barrels, up from about 23.7 million barrels one week earlier.

Cushing deserves separate attention because it is the designated delivery location for NYMEX WTI futures.

In this release, Cushing reinforced the negative crude-inventory signal, making the upward WTI response even more notable and highlighting the importance of the product-market data.

Crude Supply and Flow Data

The EIA overview also provided useful information on production, imports, exports and refinery demand.

U.S. Crude Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Domestic Production	13.955M b/d	13.939M b/d	+16K b/d
Crude Imports	5.698M b/d	5.877M b/d	−179K b/d
Crude Exports	3.570M b/d	3.281M b/d	+289K b/d
Net Crude Imports	2.128M b/d	2.596M b/d	−468K b/d
Refinery Crude Inputs	16.257M b/d	16.811M b/d	−554K b/d

Net crude imports fell substantially, while domestic production edged higher. However, the reduction in refinery demand was large enough to contribute to the commercial crude inventory build.

Product Supplied Remained Firm

Measures of petroleum products supplied also provided useful context for the tightening product balances.

Total products supplied averaged approximately 21.5 million barrels per day during the latest week.

On a four-week-average basis, total products supplied were approximately 20.8 million barrels per day, up 2.1% from the comparable period one year earlier.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY Change
Total Petroleum Products	21.500M b/d	20.779M b/d	+2.1%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.689M b/d	8.721M b/d	+0.3%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.948M b/d	3.776M b/d	+5.2%
Jet Fuel	1.809M b/d	1.761M b/d	+6.5%

The strong year-over-year increase in four-week distillate product supplied is particularly relevant given the low level of distillate inventories.

Why Could WTI Rise Despite an Unexpected Crude Build?

Product Draws Were Much Larger Than Expected

Gasoline and distillate inventories both tightened materially more than consensus anticipated, providing a strong offset to the crude build.

Distillate Stocks Were Already Tight

Distillate inventories stood roughly 14% below their five-year seasonal average, increasing the information value of another 2.3M-barrel draw.

Total Commercial Stocks Declined

Aggregate petroleum stocks excluding the SPR fell by approximately 7M barrels despite the commercial crude build.

Refining Activity Fell

Lower refinery runs helped explain both the crude build and the simultaneous tightening in product inventories.

The Crude Headline Alone Was Insufficient

The September 30 release demonstrates why high-frequency petroleum analysis requires simultaneous processing of multiple fields.

A crude-only framework would have classified the release negatively: stocks built when the market expected a draw, and Cushing inventories also increased.

A broader balance-sheet framework would immediately have identified substantial tightening in gasoline and distillates, falling refinery runs and a seven-million-barrel decline in total commercial petroleum inventories.

Professional market takeaway: petroleum releases are multi-dimensional. The first price response can reflect the interaction among crude, products, Cushing, refinery runs, trade flows and demand indicators rather than the sign of any single inventory field.

Release-Window Reaction vs. the Broader Oil Session

The measured 24-tick WTI increase represents the immediate response around the scheduled EIA release.

It should be separated from the broader daily oil move.

Crude prices were already trading higher amid continued concerns over Middle Eastern supply, while tightening U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories added support following the EIA data.

WTI ultimately settled at approximately $90.42 per barrel, up about $1.04 on the session.

The distinction matters for event attribution: the release-window movement isolates the market's response to the new petroleum data, while the full-session price reflects a much broader information set.

Implications for Low-Latency Commodity Strategies

Process the Entire Petroleum Balance

Crude, gasoline, distillates and Cushing can deliver conflicting signals. A robust system needs to parse them concurrently rather than sequentially.

Compare Actual Data with Consensus

The absolute direction of a stock change is not sufficient. The magnitude of the deviation from market expectations determines how much new information the release contains.

Preserve Relationships Between Fields

Lower refinery runs helped explain why crude inventories increased while refined-product stocks declined. Treating each field independently can miss these balance-sheet relationships.

Separate Absolute Stocks from Weekly Changes

Commercial crude stocks were above their seasonal five-year average, while gasoline and distillates remained below theirs. Stock levels and weekly changes therefore provided different signals.

Distinguish Release-Window Movement from Daily Performance

HAAWKS measurements focus on the immediate market response surrounding the official publication. They are not intended to represent the direction or magnitude of the entire trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 30 EIA petroleum release delivered a clear example of a mixed inventory report in which the crude headline did not determine the initial market direction.

Commercial crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw.

Cushing stocks also increased by approximately 553,000 barrels.

Yet gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels, both substantially exceeding expected draws.

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the SPR declined by approximately 7 million barrels, while refinery utilization fell to 92.5%.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 24-tick upward movement in WTI crude oil following the release.

For professional market participants, the release highlights the value of structured, low-latency access to the full petroleum data set. Crude inventories matter, but so do refined products, refinery activity, delivery-hub stocks, flows and implied demand.

Low-Latency Data. Structured Intelligence. Professional Execution.

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency, structured macroeconomic and commodity data covering the United States, Canada and Europe.

The feed is designed for systematic strategies, professional trading desks and latency-sensitive applications that require field-level economic and commodity data as official releases become public.

API access is available through infrastructure in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report, September 30, 2026
Official source for U.S. crude, gasoline, distillate, refinery, supply, inventory and product-supplied data.
Reuters — Oil Prices Rise on Tight Fuel Markets, September 30, 2026
Used for analyst expectations and broader post-release oil-market context.
Reuters via BOE Report — U.S. Crude Stocks Rise, Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Fall
Used for consensus estimates, Cushing inventories and refinery utilization context.
HAAWKS internal tick-level market analysis — September 30, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 24-tick upward WTI crude oil movement.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

September 2026 WASDE: Corn Jumps 52 Ticks, Wheat 32 and Soybeans 28

September 11, 2026

According to our analysis ZC moved 52 ticks, ZW moved 32 ticks and ZS moved 28 ticks (total: 112 ticks) on USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data on 11 September 2026.

1673 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

HAAWKS Research

September WASDE Triggers Fast Grain Moves: Corn +52 Ticks, Wheat +32 and Soybeans +28

USDA cut the U.S. corn crop and tightened corn and soybean balances, while wheat delivered a more mixed global supply picture. CBOT grain futures reacted immediately to the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

September 11, 2026 • Release time: 12:00 p.m. ET • USDA WASDE

The September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates produced rapid moves across the major CBOT grain markets as traders processed new USDA forecasts for corn, wheat and soybeans.

HAAWKS measured an immediate 52-tick rise in corn futures (ZC), a 32-tick rise in wheat futures (ZW) and a 28-tick rise in soybean futures (ZS) following the 12:00 p.m. ET release.

The report contained very different signals across the three crops. Corn supplies tightened substantially compared with USDA's August projections. Soybean production increased, but stronger export demand reduced projected ending stocks. U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser.

HAAWKS first read: the initial futures reaction was higher across all three contracts, but the WASDE was not uniformly bullish relative to trade expectations. This is an important distinction for professional news traders: month-to-month USDA revisions and surprise versus consensus are two different signals.

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

CBOT Corn — ZC +52 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Wheat — ZW +32 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

CBOT Soybeans — ZS +28 Ticks Immediate HAAWKS release-window move

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Corn contained the clearest month-over-month tightening in the September report.

USDA reduced the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre, from 180.7 to 178.5 bpa.

Production was cut by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion bushels.

With lower beginning stocks and smaller production only partly offset by reduced feed demand, projected U.S. ending stocks fell from 1.653 billion to 1.567 billion bushels.

U.S. Corn	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	180.7 bpa	178.1 bpa	178.5 bpa	Large cut vs. August, but slightly above consensus.
Production	16.013B bu	15.768B bu	15.800B bu	213M-bushel USDA cut, but slightly above the trade average.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	1.653B bu	1.533B bu	1.567B bu	Tighter month over month, though not as tight as expected.
Season-Average Farm Price	$4.50/bu	—	$4.80/bu	USDA raised the price forecast by $0.30.

Corn takeaway: the balance sheet tightened substantially compared with August, which was supportive, but the headline yield, production and ending stocks figures were all slightly above pre-report trade averages. For a news trader, that makes the release more nuanced than simply calling the corn figures a bullish surprise.

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Soybeans delivered a mixed supply-and-demand signal.

USDA increased the soybean yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre and raised production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion bushels.

That increase in supply was more than absorbed by stronger demand. USDA raised projected soybean exports by 25 million bushels to approximately 1.685 billion bushels.

As a result, projected ending stocks actually declined from 320 million to 310 million bushels.

U.S. Soybeans	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
Yield	52.7 bpa	52.5 bpa	52.8 bpa	Higher than both August and the trade average.
Production	4.519B bu	4.492B bu	4.535B bu	Larger crop than traders expected.
Exports	1.660B bu	—	1.685B bu	USDA raised exports by 25M bushels.
2026/27 Ending Stocks	320M bu	289M bu	310M bu	Lower than August, but above the trade average.
Season-Average Farm Price	$11.40/bu	—	$12.00/bu	USDA raised its price projection by $0.60.

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Wheat was arguably the most interesting market response because the underlying WASDE changes were less supportive than the immediate 32-tick upward move might suggest.

USDA left aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use unchanged. Production remained at 1.531 billion bushels and ending stocks remained at 717 million bushels.

USDA did make changes within wheat classes. White wheat exports were raised by 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter exports were reduced by 15 million and Hard Red Spring exports by 5 million.

The season-average wheat price was increased by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel.

Globally, however, wheat supplies increased substantially. USDA raised production forecasts for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, while world ending stocks increased to approximately 276.3 million metric tons.

Wheat Measure	August USDA	Trade Average	September USDA	Interpretation
U.S. Production	1.531B bu	—	1.531B bu	Unchanged.
U.S. Ending Stocks	717M bu	720M bu	717M bu	Slightly below the average trade estimate.
World Ending Stocks	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	The clearest bearish supply surprise among the three crops.
U.S. Farm Price	$6.20/bu	—	$6.40/bu	Raised by $0.20.

Wheat takeaway: the immediate 32-tick ZW rally should not be interpreted as proof that the WASDE itself was fundamentally bullish for wheat. Global wheat supplies and ending stocks increased, while the U.S. balance was essentially unchanged. Positioning, order flow and the interaction of multiple USDA data points can matter during the first seconds after a major agricultural release.

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

The global balance sheets provided an important counterweight to the tighter U.S. corn and soybean figures.

2026/27 Global Ending Stocks	August USDA	Trade Estimate	September USDA	Signal vs. Consensus
Corn	274.7 MMT	about 271.9 MMT	272.1 MMT	Much tighter vs. August, but slightly above expectations.
Soybeans	124.2 MMT	about 123.1 MMT	124.0 MMT	Slightly tighter month over month, but above consensus.
Wheat	273.3 MMT	about 273.2 MMT	276.3 MMT	Significantly above expectations.

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

WASDE is not one number. Yield, production, exports, domestic use, ending stocks, global stocks and price forecasts arrive together. Different trading models may assign different weights to each field.

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Corn production fell by 213M bushels from USDA's August estimate, while U.S. corn ending stocks declined by 86M bushels. Those are substantial directional changes even though the final figures were slightly above trade consensus.

Consensus Matters Too

Professional traders also compare the published figures with pre-report expectations. A number can tighten relative to last month and still be less bullish than traders anticipated.

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Futures prices reflect existing positions as well as fundamentals. Stop orders, hedging flows, spread positions and thin liquidity immediately after a release can amplify short-duration moves.

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

The HAAWKS measurements describe the immediate release-window reaction. They should not be confused with the direction of grain futures over the entire trading day.

HAAWKS recorded upward moves of 52 ticks in ZC, 32 ticks in ZW and 28 ticks in ZS following the USDA release.

Later in the session, grain markets reassessed the complete balance sheets. CME noted that corn and soybean futures ultimately finished the week lower, illustrating how an initial data-release move can differ from the subsequent market trend.

News-trader takeaway: release-window trading measures how prices respond when new information first enters the market. Later price action reflects additional interpretation, positioning, liquidity and broader market factors.

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

Unlike a simple one-number economic release, WASDE contains hundreds of interconnected supply-and-demand fields. A professional system needs to identify which numbers changed and which differences matter most.

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

U.S. corn supplies tightened materially while world corn stocks still came in slightly above expectations. Wheat provided an even clearer example: U.S. ending stocks were slightly below the trade average, while world stocks were sharply above it.

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Comparing September with August tells a trader how USDA changed its fundamental outlook. Comparing September with market expectations tells a trader how surprising the new information actually was.

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Receiving the report quickly is valuable, but an automated system must also correctly map the crop, marketing year, country, unit and balance sheet field before acting.

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

The 52-, 32- and 28-tick figures represent historical measured price movement. Actual results depend on market depth, latency, spread, slippage, execution venue, order type and risk management.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 2026 WASDE triggered rapid price movement across all three major CBOT grain contracts monitored by HAAWKS.

HAAWKS measured approximately 52 ticks higher in corn futures, 32 ticks higher in wheat futures and 28 ticks higher in soybeans in the immediate release window.

Corn showed the clearest month-over-month tightening. USDA cut the national yield to 178.5 bpa, lowered production by 213 million bushels and reduced projected ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels.

Soybean production increased to 4.535 billion bushels, but higher exports reduced ending stocks to 310 million bushels.

U.S. wheat supply and use was largely unchanged, while the global wheat balance became looser and world ending stocks rose to roughly 276.3 million metric tons.

The release therefore provides an important lesson for professional news traders: the initial price reaction cannot always be explained by one headline number or even by a simple bullish-versus-bearish label.

Low-latency access to structured USDA data allows trading systems to compare many fields simultaneously — current values, previous estimates, consensus expectations and global balances — while the market is still repricing.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Machine-Readable Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered via API access in Chicago, New York and London for professional and latency-sensitive news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 11, 2026
Official source for U.S. and world corn, wheat and soybean supply-and-demand forecasts.
USDA — WASDE Report
Official WASDE publication page and release schedule.
Price Futures Group — September 11 Grain Report
Reproduces the pre-report analyst averages and ranges for U.S. production, yield and ending stocks used in this analysis.
DTN — USDA Lowers Corn Yield 2.2 BPA, Slightly Increases Soy Yield
Independent post-release analysis of the September WASDE and Crop Production reports.
CME Group — Corn and Soybean Futures React to Latest WASDE Estimates
Used for broader post-release grain-market context.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 11, 2026
Source for the measured immediate market reactions: ZC +52 ticks, ZW +32 ticks and ZS +28 ticks.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

EIA Petroleum Report Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

September 10, 2026

According to our analysis crude oil moved 39 ticks on DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 10 September 2026.

1513 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

WTI crude oil (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Early EIA Petroleum Data Sends WTI Crude Oil Down 30 Ticks

The market reacted to EIA's early Weekly Petroleum Status Report data before publication of the full report, as a smaller-than-expected crude draw and surprise gasoline and distillate builds delivered a bearish inventory signal.

September 10, 2026 • Early release: 12:00 p.m. ET • WTI Crude Oil

On September 10, 2026, WTI crude oil reacted immediately when the first EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report data became available at 12:00 p.m. ET — before publication of the complete report later in the day.

The early EIA overview and petroleum tables already contained the high-value fields news traders needed to assess the release: commercial crude stocks, gasoline, distillates, Cushing inventories, refinery inputs and utilization, production, imports, exports and product supplied.

Commercial crude stocks declined by only 391,000 barrels, substantially less than the approximately 1.55 million-barrel draw expected in a Reuters analyst survey.

At the same time, gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly increased, reinforcing the initial bearish interpretation.

HAAWKS release-window analysis: the early petroleum data triggered approximately 30 ticks of downside movement in WTI crude oil. The price reaction occurred before traders needed to wait for the complete WPSR PDF and HTML publication.

Why the Early EIA Release Matters to News Traders

The important distinction: EIA does not require traders to wait for the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report before key petroleum statistics become available.

The early release includes the WPSR summary, overview and core statistical tables. The remaining full-report PDF and HTML material is published later.

For traditional analysis, waiting for the complete report may make little difference. For latency-sensitive news trading, however, the distinction is critical.

The market can begin repricing as soon as the key inventory and supply fields become public. By the time a trader manually opens and reads the complete report, part of the initial market reaction may already have taken place.

HAAWKS view: for WPSR news trading, the relevant event is the first public dissemination of the market-moving data — not the later appearance of the full formatted report.

Key Inventory Surprises at 12:00 p.m. ET

Commercial Crude −0.391M Reuters estimate: −1.55M barrels

Gasoline +1.269M StreetInsider estimate: −1.09M

Distillates +2.087M StreetInsider estimate: −0.632M

Cushing −0.684M WTI delivery hub

Inventory Field	Market Estimate	Actual	Surprise	News-Trader Read
Commercial Crude Oil	−1.55M Reuters survey	−0.391M	Smaller draw	Bearish relative to expectations despite the negative headline inventory change.
Gasoline	−1.09M StreetInsider estimate	+1.269M	Build vs. expected draw	A large bearish swing relative to expectations.
Distillates	−0.632M StreetInsider estimate	+2.087M	Build vs. expected draw	Another clear bearish product-inventory surprise.
Cushing, Oklahoma	—	−0.684M	Draw	A bullish counter-signal because Cushing is the delivery point for NYMEX WTI futures.

WTI Falls 30 Ticks on the Early Data

HAAWKS tick-chart analysis recorded an immediate downside reaction as the petroleum figures entered the market.

30 WTI Crude Oil Ticks Lower

HAAWKS measured the move following the 12:00 p.m. ET early EIA petroleum-data release on September 10, 2026.

The reaction illustrates an important principle in petroleum news trading: a negative crude-stock number is not automatically bullish.

What matters is the difference between the actual data and what the market had already priced in.

Traders expected a materially larger crude draw. Instead, inventories fell by only 391,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillates simultaneously moved in the opposite direction from expectations and posted inventory builds.

What Was Already Available in the Early Overview?

The early EIA overview contained considerably more information than the three headline inventory figures.

Early-Release Data Point	Current Week	Previous Week	Change / Context
Commercial Crude Stocks	424.1M barrels	424.5M barrels	Approximately −0.4M barrels
Cushing Crude Stocks	21.8M barrels	22.5M barrels	Approximately −0.7M barrels
Gasoline Stocks	206.9M barrels	205.7M barrels	Approximately +1.3M barrels
Distillate Stocks	106.3M barrels	104.2M barrels	Approximately +2.1M barrels
Total Commercial Petroleum Stocks Ex-SPR	1,248.6M barrels	1,242.3M barrels	+6.3M barrels
Refinery Crude Inputs	17.586M b/d	17.496M b/d	+91K b/d
Refinery Utilization	97.8%	98.0%	Refineries remained near very high utilization levels.
U.S. Crude Production	13.947M b/d	13.862M b/d	+85K b/d

In other words, a news-trading system did not need the later full report to know that crude inventories disappointed expectations, product inventories built, Cushing drew, refinery utilization remained very high and U.S. crude production increased.

Imports, Exports and Supply Added More Context

The early overview also showed a material change in crude trade flows.

Crude Supply Measure	Current Week	Previous Week	Weekly Change
Crude Imports	6.824M b/d	6.770M b/d	+53K b/d
Crude Exports	3.417M b/d	4.483M b/d	−1.066M b/d
Net Crude Imports	3.407M b/d	2.287M b/d	+1.119M b/d

The large decline in crude exports and increase in net imports helped explain why domestic commercial crude stocks registered only a small draw despite exceptionally high refinery runs.

Demand Indicators Were Also Available Before the Full Report

The overview included product-supplied statistics, giving news traders an immediate view of implied petroleum demand.

Product Supplied	Latest Week	Four-Week Average	Four-Week YoY
Total Products	19.313M b/d	20.119M b/d	−3.7%
Finished Motor Gasoline	8.551M b/d	8.801M b/d	−1.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.678M b/d	3.715M b/d	−2.6%
Jet Fuel	1.785M b/d	1.731M b/d	−2.3%

Why the Initial WTI Signal Was Bearish

Crude Drew Less Than Expected

The market expected a substantially larger decline in commercial crude stocks. A 391K draw was therefore bearish relative to the consensus expectation despite being a draw in absolute terms.

Gasoline Swung to a Build

Gasoline inventories increased by approximately 1.27M barrels versus expectations for a decline. That created one of the clearest bearish surprises in the early data.

Distillates Also Built

Distillate inventories increased by approximately 2.09M barrels rather than posting the expected draw, reinforcing the product-side bearish signal.

Total Commercial Stocks Rose

Total commercial petroleum inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 6.3M barrels during the week, providing broader evidence of inventory accumulation.

But the Release Was Not Bearish in Every Detail

Professional news traders also had to process several opposing signals.

Cushing inventories fell by approximately 684,000 barrels, which was supportive for WTI because Cushing is the NYMEX crude futures delivery point.

Refineries were also operating at a very high 97.8% utilization rate, with crude inputs of 17.586 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, early EIA summary information showed gasoline and distillate inventories still below their respective five-year seasonal averages despite the week's builds.

HAAWKS view: the dominant immediate surprise was bearish because crude missed the expected draw and both major refined-product categories built. However, the Cushing draw and historically tight product inventories provided counter-signals that a complete trading model should not ignore.

What This Release Shows Professional News Traders

The Market Does Not Wait for the Full PDF

The key trading information was already public in the early overview, summary and statistical tables. The later complete report added presentation and additional context, but the principal inventory surprises were already available to the market.

Machine-Readable Fields Matter

A WPSR strategy may need to process crude inventories, Cushing stocks, gasoline, distillates, production, refinery utilization, imports, exports and product supplied at virtually the same time.

Consensus Is Essential

A crude draw is not automatically bullish. The 391K decline was bearish relative to expectations because traders had positioned for a much larger draw.

Different Fields Can Conflict

National crude and product inventories produced a bearish initial signal, while Cushing inventories produced a bullish one. News traders need rules for weighting conflicting data rather than reacting to only one field.

Low Latency Is About the First Public Data

For latency-sensitive trading, the relevant workflow begins when the earliest official data become available. Waiting for a later formatted report can mean waiting until after the first market repricing has already occurred.

The 30-Tick Reaction Was Not the Full-Day Oil Story

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of downside WTI movement in response to the early EIA data.

That should be separated from the broader September 10 oil session. Global crude prices were simultaneously being driven by severe geopolitical supply risks.

WTI ultimately settled above $100 per barrel and rose more than 6% on the day as attacks on shipping and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure increased concerns about global supply disruptions.

News-trading distinction: a release-window move measures the immediate repricing caused by a specific data event. It does not necessarily predict the direction of the market for the remainder of the trading session.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The September 10 EIA release provides a useful example of why publication timing matters for professional news traders.

The market-moving petroleum data were available at 12:00 p.m. ET, before publication of the complete Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Commercial crude stocks declined by 391,000 barrels, considerably less than expected. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.269 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 2.087 million barrels.

Total commercial petroleum stocks excluding the SPR increased by 6.3 million barrels, while Cushing crude stocks provided a counter-signal with a roughly 684,000-barrel draw.

HAAWKS measured approximately 30 ticks of immediate downside movement in WTI crude oil following the early release.

For professional news traders, the lesson is straightforward: the trading event begins when the first official machine-readable information enters the market — not when the complete report becomes convenient to read manually.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Low-Latency Data for Professional News Traders

HAAWKS G4A provides low-latency machine-readable U.S. macroeconomic and commodity data, together with macroeconomic data covering Canada and Europe.

Data is delivered in structured machine-readable format via API access in Chicago, New York and London, supporting professional and latency-sensitive automated news-trading applications.

Free trials are available for qualified professional users.

Explore HAAWKS G4A Low-Latency Data

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Official EIA source for the September 10, 2026 petroleum data covering the week ending September 4.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report Release Schedule
EIA publication schedule explaining the earlier release of the WPSR summary, overview and core tables ahead of the remaining full-report PDF and HTML files.
Reuters — September 10, 2026 Oil Market Report
Source for the Reuters analyst expectation of a 1.55M-barrel crude draw and broader oil-market context.
StreetInsider — EIA Inventory Release, September 10, 2026
Timestamped at 12:00 p.m. EDT and used for the product inventory consensus estimates: gasoline −1.09M barrels and distillates −0.632M barrels.
HAAWKS internal tick-chart analysis — September 10, 2026
Source for the measured immediate 30-tick WTI crude oil reaction.

Greedy 4 Alpha

Low latency machine-readable macro-economic and commodity data for financial institutions

Comment

Natural Gas Futures Drop 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds After EIA Storage Report

July 18, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 16 July 2026.

1298 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

HAAWKS Research

Natural Gas Storage Build Triggers a 39-Tick Selloff in 11 Seconds

U.S. natural gas futures reacted sharply after the EIA reported a 41 Bcf storage injection, with the market looking beyond the slightly smaller-than-expected build to focus on abundant inventories and strong domestic production.

July 16, 2026 • Release time: 10:30 a.m. ET • Week ending July 10, 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that working natural gas inventories increased by 41 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 10, bringing total Lower 48 storage to 3,024 Bcf.

The build was slightly smaller than the Reuters analyst consensus of 43 Bcf and below the five-year average injection of 45 Bcf. Despite the modestly tighter weekly flow, natural gas sold off immediately after the release.

HAAWKS first read: The market did not treat the smaller-than-expected injection as a sustainable bullish signal. Traders instead focused on inventories remaining 6.4% above the five-year average, rising production and softer LNG feedgas demand.

Storage Report at a Glance

Weekly Injection +41 Bcf Reuters consensus: +43 Bcf

Total Storage 3,024 Bcf Lower 48 working gas

vs. Five-Year Average +181 Bcf 6.4% above average

vs. One Year Ago −21 Bcf 0.7% below last year

Weekly natural gas storage report compared with forecasts and historical levels
Storage Indicator	Reported	Comparison	HAAWKS Read-through
Weekly Net Change	+41 Bcf	Reuters forecast: +43 Bcf	The injection was 2 Bcf below consensus, representing a slightly tighter weekly result than expected.
Five-Year Average Injection	+45 Bcf	Actual was 4 Bcf smaller	The weekly flow was below normal, but the total inventory surplus remained substantial.
Total Working Gas	3,024 Bcf	3,045 Bcf one year ago	Inventories were 21 Bcf, or 0.7%, below the comparable year-earlier level.
Five-Year Average Stocks	2,843 Bcf	Current stocks: +181 Bcf	The 6.4% storage surplus continued to provide a bearish buffer against weather-driven demand.

Immediate Market Reaction

39 Ticks Lower

Natural Gas Fell 39 Ticks in 11 Seconds

The HAAWKS tick chart recorded an immediate 39-tick decline in natural gas within the first 11 seconds following the 10:30 a.m. ET storage release. The speed of the move showed that the market interpreted the broader storage and supply backdrop as bearish, despite the injection coming in slightly below expectations.

Natural gas market reaction following the weekly EIA storage report
Market	Measured Move	Time Window	Initial Direction	Interpretation
Natural Gas	39 ticks	11 seconds	Lower	Immediate selling indicated that surplus inventories and broader supply conditions outweighed the slightly smaller weekly build.

Regional Storage Breakdown

The Midwest recorded the largest regional injection at 20 Bcf, followed by the East with 14 Bcf. The South Central region added only 3 Bcf as a 5 Bcf withdrawal from salt facilities partially offset an 8 Bcf injection into nonsalt storage.

Regional changes in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending July 10, 2026
Region	Working Gas	Weekly Change	vs. Last Year	vs. Five-Year Average
East	614 Bcf	+14 Bcf	−1.9%	+1.7%
Midwest	749 Bcf	+20 Bcf	+3.0%	+6.2%
Mountain	240 Bcf	+4 Bcf	+2.6%	+21.2%
Pacific	319 Bcf	0 Bcf	+8.5%	+21.8%
South Central	1,103 Bcf	+3 Bcf	−5.2%	+2.7%
Total Lower 48	3,024 Bcf	+41 Bcf	−0.7%	+6.4%

Why Did Natural Gas Fall?

The Storage Surplus Remained Large

Although the weekly injection was slightly smaller than expected, inventories remained 181 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus continued to limit concerns about supply availability during the summer cooling season.

Production Remained Strong

Lower 48 natural gas production averaged approximately 110.3 Bcf per day during July. Strong output gave the market confidence that storage could remain adequately supplied even as electricity demand increased.

LNG Feedgas Flows Were Below Their Peak

Feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals averaged around 17.4 Bcf per day during July, below the record level reached in April. Reduced export demand left more domestic supply available to the U.S. market.

HAAWKS view: The 41 Bcf injection was nominally supportive because it came in below both consensus and the five-year average. However, the 39-tick selloff showed that traders placed greater weight on the continuing inventory surplus, high production and subdued LNG demand.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Weather remains the most important near-term variable. Sustained heat across the Midwest and East could increase power-sector gas consumption and produce a smaller injection in the next storage report.

Traders should also monitor Lower 48 production, LNG terminal activity and the pace at which the five-year storage surplus narrows. A series of tighter injections would be more important than a single below-average build.

The next EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for July 23, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

HAAWKS Conclusion

The July 16 natural gas storage report delivered a slightly tighter result than expected. The 41 Bcf injection was below the 43 Bcf Reuters consensus and the 45 Bcf five-year average build.

The immediate market response was nevertheless decisively bearish. Natural gas dropped 39 ticks in only 11 seconds, demonstrating that the market remained more concerned with abundant total inventories than with the modest weekly miss.

Total working gas stood at 3,024 Bcf—21 Bcf below the prior-year level but still 181 Bcf above the five-year average. This left the market adequately supplied and reduced the urgency to price a near-term shortage.

The key message is that the headline injection cannot be viewed in isolation. Storage levels, production, weather, electricity demand and LNG exports collectively determine whether a report is genuinely bullish or bearish.

Trade smart. Stay informed. Stay ahead.

Sources

U.S. Energy Information Administration — Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Official source for the 41 Bcf injection, total Lower 48 inventories, regional storage changes and comparisons with last year and the five-year average.
Reuters — U.S. natural gas prices slide on rising production and ample storage
Used for the 43 Bcf analyst consensus, five-year average injection, production, LNG flows and broader futures-market context.
HAAWKS internal natural gas tick-chart analysis — July 16, 2026
Used for the measured release-window market reaction of 39 ticks lower in 11 seconds.

Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data is one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

30 ticks potential profit in 97 seconds on 28 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

May 28, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 30 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 28 May 2026.

911 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (30 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Climbs by 92 Bcf, Staying Above the Five-Year Average

U.S. working natural gas in underground storage rose sharply for the week ending May 22, 2026, according to the latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Total working gas stocks reached 2,483 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net increase of 92 Bcf from the prior week.

The latest build keeps storage levels slightly above both last year’s mark and the five-year average. Stocks were 21 Bcf higher than the same week in 2025 and 144 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,339 Bcf. At 2,483 Bcf, total working gas remains within the five-year historical range.

Regional Storage Trends

The weekly increase was broad-based across all major Lower 48 storage regions.

The East region reported working gas stocks of 447 Bcf, up 28 Bcf from the previous week. Compared with historical levels, East inventories were 2.4% below last year but 1.1% above the five-year average.

The Midwest posted one of the larger regional gains, rising 34 Bcf to 539 Bcf. That placed Midwest stocks 0.4% above year-ago levels and 1.5% above the five-year average.

In the Mountain region, inventories increased by 3 Bcf to 213 Bcf. Storage levels there remained notably elevated, standing 8.1% above last year and 35.7% above the five-year average.

The Pacific region added 6 Bcf, bringing stocks to 292 Bcf. Pacific inventories were 15.4% higher than last year and 30.9% above the five-year average, making it one of the strongest regions relative to historical norms.

The South Central region reported stocks of 993 Bcf, up 21 Bcf from the previous week. Inventories were 2.4% below last year but still 0.6% above the five-year average.

Within South Central, salt storage rose by 7 Bcf to 305 Bcf, while nonsalt storage increased by 15 Bcf to 688 Bcf. Salt storage remained 6.7% below year-ago levels, though it was 2.0% above the five-year average. Nonsalt storage was nearly unchanged from both last year and the five-year average.

Storage Remains Comfortable Heading Into Summer

The 92 Bcf injection marks a sizable weekly build and leaves U.S. natural gas inventories in a relatively comfortable position heading into the summer cooling season. Total storage is not dramatically above historical norms, but it remains meaningfully stronger than the five-year average.

The regional breakdown also shows important differences. The Mountain and Pacific regions continue to hold inventories far above their five-year averages, while the East and South Central regions are modestly below last year’s levels. Still, the national picture points to adequate storage, with total working gas safely within the five-year historical range.

Key Takeaways

For the week ending May 22, 2026:

Total U.S. working natural gas in storage was 2,483 Bcf
Inventories increased by 92 Bcf from the previous week
Stocks were 21 Bcf higher than last year
Storage was 144 Bcf above the five-year average
Total working gas remained within the five-year historical range
The largest weekly regional increases came from the Midwest, East, and South Central regions

Overall, the latest EIA report suggests that U.S. natural gas storage remains well-positioned, with inventories above average and continued injections supporting supply levels ahead of peak summer demand.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

39 ticks potential profit in 44 seconds on 7 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

May 7, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 39 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 7 May 2026.

861 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (39 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Builds by 63 Bcf, Staying Above the Five-Year Average

The U.S. natural gas storage season continued to gain momentum in the week ending May 1, 2026, with working gas inventories rising by 63 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from the previous week. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, total working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states reached 2,205 Bcf.

That puts inventories 75 Bcf higher than the same week last year and 139 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,066 Bcf. In percentage terms, total stocks were 3.5% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year average.

While inventories remain comfortably within the five-year historical range, the latest report suggests that the market entered May with a relatively healthy storage cushion.

Regional Storage Trends

The weekly build was not evenly distributed across regions. Most areas posted increases, while the Mountain region recorded a small withdrawal.

The East region added 29 Bcf, bringing inventories to 361 Bcf. That level is nearly in line with the five-year average of 362 Bcf and slightly above last year’s 358 Bcf.

The Midwest saw a 23 Bcf increase, with stocks rising to 452 Bcf. Inventories there are just above last year’s level of 450 Bcf, though still 1.5% below the five-year average of 459 Bcf.

The Mountain region stood out with a 2 Bcf decline, leaving storage at 203 Bcf. Even with the weekly draw, this region remains well above historical benchmarks, sitting 13.4% above last year and 48.2% above the five-year average.

The Pacific region added 3 Bcf, bringing stocks to 275 Bcf. This is one of the strongest regional comparisons in the report, with inventories 19.0% above last year and 39.6% above the five-year average.

The South Central region, the largest storage region by volume, added 9 Bcf, bringing inventories to 914 Bcf. That is nearly flat compared with both last year and the five-year average, standing 0.2% above year-ago levels and 0.4% above the five-year average.

Within South Central, salt storage increased by 1 Bcf to 273 Bcf, while nonsalt storage rose by 7 Bcf to 641 Bcf. Salt storage remains 6.2% below last year and 1.4% below the five-year average, while nonsalt storage is above both comparisons.

What the Latest Build Means

The 63 Bcf injection reflects the seasonal transition from winter withdrawal season into spring and summer refill season. During this period, natural gas demand for heating typically declines, allowing more supply to move into underground storage ahead of the next winter.

The latest storage level of 2,205 Bcf suggests that the market is starting the refill season from a solid position. Inventories are not excessively high, but they are comfortably above both last year and the five-year average.

This matters because storage levels play a key role in shaping natural gas market expectations. Higher inventories can help reduce concerns about winter supply tightness, while lower inventories can increase price sensitivity to weather, production changes, and demand swings.

Regional Strength Is Concentrated in the West

One of the most notable details in the report is the strength of storage levels in the Mountain and Pacific regions. The Mountain region is almost 50% above its five-year average, while the Pacific region is nearly 40% above its five-year average.

By contrast, the East and Midwest are much closer to normal, and South Central is essentially in line with historical comparisons. This regional split suggests that national inventories are above average in part because of unusually strong storage positions in the western regions.

Bottom Line

For the week ending May 1, 2026, U.S. natural gas storage increased by 63 Bcf, bringing total working gas inventories to 2,205 Bcf. Stocks are now 75 Bcf above last year and 139 Bcf above the five-year average.

The report points to a generally well-supplied market as the injection season progresses. While regional differences remain, total inventories are within the five-year historical range and sitting above average heading into the warmer months.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

57 ticks potential profit in 40 seconds on 6 May 2026, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data

May 6, 2026

According to our analysis crude oil moved 57 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 6 May 2026.

822 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Light sweet crude oil (57 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Oil Inventories Tighten as Fuel Prices Jump in Early May 2026

The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows a petroleum market under renewed pressure. For the week ending May 1, 2026, crude oil inventories declined, refinery activity remained strong, fuel stocks tightened, and retail gasoline and diesel prices moved sharply higher.

The headline number: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels, bringing total crude stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 457.2 million barrels. That level remains about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, but the weekly draw still points to a market where supply is being pulled down as refineries continue to run at high utilization.

Refineries Stay Busy, But Inputs Edge Lower

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day during the week, down 42,000 barrels per day from the prior week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.1% of operable capacity, a relatively strong utilization rate as the market moves deeper into the spring and closer to peak summer driving demand.

Gasoline production slipped to an average of 9.6 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production also declined, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.

Looking at the four-week averages, refinery activity remains slightly ahead of last year. Crude oil input to refineries averaged 16.032 million barrels per day, compared with 15.900 million barrels per day for the same period in 2025. Motor gasoline production also improved year over year, averaging 9.810 million barrels per day, versus 9.663 million barrels per day a year earlier.

Crude Imports Decline

Crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, down 273,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, imports averaged roughly 5.6 million barrels per day, which is 2.4% lower than the same four-week period last year.

Net crude oil imports over the latest four-week period averaged just 346,000 barrels per day, far below the 1.592 million barrels per day recorded during the comparable period in 2025. That reflects a much stronger net export position for the broader U.S. petroleum market.

Total petroleum net imports were deeply negative at -5.890 million barrels per day, meaning the U.S. exported far more petroleum and petroleum products than it imported on a net basis.

Fuel Inventories Move Lower

The report showed broad draws across key fuel categories.

Motor gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels to 219.8 million barrels. That leaves gasoline stocks about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, but blending component inventories declined enough to pull the overall gasoline stock figure lower.

Distillate fuel inventories declined by 1.3 million barrels to 102.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks are now about 11% below the five-year average, a notable shortfall given the importance of diesel and heating oil to freight, agriculture, industry, and winter fuel markets.

Propane and propylene inventories also decreased by 1.3 million barrels, though they remain exceptionally high by historical standards at 56% above the five-year average.

Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 5.9 million barrels for the week.

Demand Looks Firm Across Major Products

Total products supplied, a common proxy for demand, averaged 20.3 million barrels per day over the latest four-week period. That is up 2.6% from the same period last year.

Motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up 1.0% year over year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per day, up 3.5% from the same period last year.

Jet fuel was the weak spot. Jet fuel product supplied was down 6.2% compared with the same four-week period in 2025.

The demand picture is therefore mixed but generally constructive: gasoline and distillate consumption are running ahead of last year, while aviation fuel demand is lagging.

Crude and Fuel Prices Surge

The price section of the report is where the pressure becomes most visible.

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price stood at $105.38 per barrel on May 1, 2026. That was up $6.96 from the prior week and a striking $45.71 above the year-ago level of $59.67.

Refined product prices were also sharply higher than last year:

New York Harbor conventional gasoline: $3.630 per gallon, up from $1.850 a year ago.
New York Harbor No. 2 heating oil: $3.871 per gallon, up from $1.907 a year ago.
New York Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel: $4.016 per gallon, up from $2.005 a year ago.
Mont Belvieu propane: $0.884 per gallon, up from $0.731 a year ago.

Retail prices followed the same pattern. The national average price for regular gasoline rose to $4.452 per gallon on May 4, up 32.9 cents from the prior week and $1.305 above the year-ago price.

Diesel prices rose even more dramatically. The national average on-highway diesel price increased to $5.640 per gallon, up 28.9 cents from the previous week and $2.143 higher than one year earlier.

What This Means for the Market

This week’s report points to a tighter and more expensive petroleum market. Crude oil inventories remain slightly above the five-year average, but weekly stock draws, lower imports, firm refinery runs, and declining product inventories suggest that supply is not building comfortably.

The most important pressure point may be distillate fuel. Inventories are 11% below the five-year average, while distillate product supplied is running 3.5% above last year. That combination helps explain why diesel prices remain elevated and why businesses tied to freight, logistics, construction, farming, and manufacturing may continue to face high fuel costs.

Gasoline markets are also tightening as the summer driving season approaches. Inventories are below normal, demand is slightly higher than last year, and retail prices have jumped sharply.

Bottom Line

The May 1, 2026 petroleum report shows a market defined by falling inventories, resilient demand, strong refinery utilization, lower imports, and sharply higher prices.

Crude prices above $105 per barrel and national gasoline prices above $4.45 per gallon suggest that consumers and businesses are already feeling the impact. Unless supply improves or demand softens, fuel prices could remain under pressure heading into the summer travel season.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_05_06/pdf/highlights.pdf

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

18 ticks potential profit in 24 seconds on 30 April 2026, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data

April 30, 2026

According to our analysis natural gas moved 18 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) data on 30 April 2026.

765 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Natural gas (18 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Natural Gas Storage Builds Momentum Heading into Late Spring

The latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending April 24, 2026, offers a clear signal that the injection season is firmly underway. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states rose to 2,142 billion cubic feet (Bcf)—a 79 Bcf increase from the prior week.

Strong Weekly Injection Signals Seasonal Shift

This 79 Bcf build is a solid injection for late April, reflecting milder temperatures and reduced heating demand across much of the country. As the market transitions away from winter withdrawals, injections like this are expected to become more consistent in the weeks ahead.

Storage Levels Outpace Historical Benchmarks

Current inventory levels are notably strong:

+116 Bcf higher than the same time last year
+153 Bcf above the five-year average (1,989 Bcf)

Despite these surpluses, total working gas remains within the historical five-year range, suggesting that while supply is comfortable, it is not yet excessive.

Regional Breakdown: Broad-Based Increases

All major regions posted gains during the week:

South Central led with a 26 Bcf injection, bringing total stocks to 905 Bcf
Midwest added 25 Bcf, now at 429 Bcf
East region increased by 23 Bcf, reaching 332 Bcf
Mountain and Pacific regions each posted modest 3 Bcf builds

Within the South Central region:

Salt storage rose by 9 Bcf
Nonsalt storage increased by 18 Bcf

The relatively balanced distribution of injections suggests stable supply conditions nationwide, without any major regional constraints.

Market Implications

The above-average storage levels could exert downward pressure on natural gas prices in the near term, particularly if injections continue at a strong pace and demand remains moderate. However, several factors could shift this outlook:

Early summer heat waves driving cooling demand
LNG export levels
Production trends and rig activity

For now, the market appears well-supplied heading into the warmer months.

Looking Ahead

With the next report scheduled for May 7, market participants will be watching closely to see whether injections maintain this pace. Sustained builds above historical norms could further widen the storage surplus, while any slowdown may tighten expectations heading into peak summer demand.

Overall, this report reinforces a familiar seasonal narrative: inventories are rebuilding efficiently, supply is ample, and the market is entering a period where weather will increasingly dictate direction.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

49 ticks potential profit in 81 seconds on 29 April 2026, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data

April 29, 2026

According to our analysis crude oil moved 49 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) data on 29 April 2026.

747 pips potential performance in 2026 (2025: 1,828)

Light sweet crude oil (49 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Energy Snapshot: What the Latest Petroleum Data Tells Us About Markets in 2026

The latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration offers a revealing look into the current state of the U.S. petroleum market. From rising crude prices to tightening inventories and shifting demand patterns, the data highlights a complex and dynamic energy landscape as we move deeper into 2026.

Refinery Activity Holds Steady—But Production Slips

U.S. refineries processed an average of 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending April 24, 2026. This marks a slight increase from the previous week, with refinery utilization hovering just under 90% of total capacity. While this suggests relatively stable operations, production figures tell a more nuanced story.

Gasoline production dipped to 9.8 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel output (including diesel and heating oil) also declined to 4.9 million barrels per day. These decreases could signal either maintenance cycles, reduced demand expectations, or tightening crude supply inputs.

Imports Down, Inventories Tightening

Crude oil imports fell notably, averaging 5.8 million barrels per day, down by 329,000 barrels from the previous week. Despite this drop, the four-week average remains slightly above last year’s levels.

Meanwhile, inventories are trending downward across the board:

Crude oil inventories dropped by 6.2 million barrels, though they remain about 1% above the five-year average.
Gasoline inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, now sitting 2% below the seasonal average.
Distillate stocks declined by 4.5 million barrels, significantly 11% below the five-year average.

The consistent drawdowns suggest that supply is tightening, particularly for refined products, which could place upward pressure on prices if demand remains strong.

Demand Trends: Mixed Signals

Total petroleum products supplied—a proxy for demand—averaged 20.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, representing a 4.6% increase year-over-year.

Breaking it down:

Gasoline demand rose modestly by 1.2%, reflecting steady consumer activity.
Distillate demand jumped 4.8%, likely driven by industrial and freight sectors.
Jet fuel demand, however, declined by 4.6%, hinting at possible softness in air travel or seasonal adjustments.

Prices Surge Across the Board

Perhaps the most striking development is the sharp rise in energy prices:

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil climbed to $98.42 per barrel, up $12.51 in just one week and more than $34 higher than a year ago.
Retail gasoline prices reached a national average of $4.123 per gallon, nearly a dollar higher than last year.
Diesel prices, while slightly down week-over-week, remain elevated at $5.351 per gallon, up $1.84 year-over-year.

Spot prices for gasoline and heating oil at New York Harbor also saw significant weekly increases, reinforcing the broader upward trend.

What It All Means

The current data paints a picture of an energy market under pressure. Declining inventories, rising demand (especially for distillates), and reduced imports are converging to push prices higher. While refinery activity remains stable, the drop in production suggests that supply may not be keeping pace with consumption.

For consumers, this likely means continued high fuel costs in the near term. For businesses, especially those reliant on transportation or logistics, elevated diesel prices could impact margins. And for policymakers, the balance between energy security and market stability remains a critical challenge.

Final Thoughts

As global and domestic factors continue to influence the energy sector, weekly reports like this provide valuable insight into short-term trends and long-term trajectories. Whether you're an investor, policymaker, or everyday consumer, keeping an eye on these indicators can help you better understand—and prepare for—what lies ahead in the energy market.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_04_29/pdf/highlights.pdf

Start futures forex fx commodity news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest data feeds for DOE data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Comment

Blog

Immediate Cross-Grain Market Response

October WASDE vs. Pre-Release Expectations

Corn: Supply Expansion Dominates the October Update

Global Corn Stocks Also Exceed Expectations

Soybeans: Record Production Estimate Moves Higher

Wheat: Lower Exports Raise U.S. Carryout

Three Contracts, Different Statistical Profiles

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Market Response

Why WASDE Requires Multi-Field Processing

Implications for Event-Driven Commodity Strategies

Consensus Is Part of the Information Set

Several Fields Can Reinforce the Same Direction

Not Every Crop Has the Same Information Structure

Domestic and Global Balances Should Be Processed Together

Release Vintage Matters

Tick Movement Is Instrument-Specific

Release-Window Repricing vs. the Broader Session

HAAWKS Conclusion

Real-Time Agricultural Data for Professional Markets

Sources

Inventory Results vs. Market Expectations

WTI Moves 24 Ticks Higher

The Product Draws Were the More Important Tightness Signal

Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories Fell 7 Million Barrels

Lower Refinery Runs Help Explain the Inventory Split

Cushing Added a Negative Counter-Signal

Crude Supply and Flow Data

Product Supplied Remained Firm

Why Could WTI Rise Despite an Unexpected Crude Build?

Product Draws Were Much Larger Than Expected

Distillate Stocks Were Already Tight

Total Commercial Stocks Declined

Refining Activity Fell

The Crude Headline Alone Was Insufficient

Release-Window Reaction vs. the Broader Oil Session

Implications for Low-Latency Commodity Strategies

Process the Entire Petroleum Balance

Compare Actual Data with Consensus

Preserve Relationships Between Fields

Separate Absolute Stocks from Weekly Changes

Distinguish Release-Window Movement from Daily Performance

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional Markets

Sources

Immediate Futures Market Reaction

Corn: USDA Cuts Yield, Production and Ending Stocks

Soybeans: Bigger Crop, but Stronger Exports Tighten Carryout

Wheat: U.S. Balance Unchanged, Global Supplies Rise

Global Ending Stocks: Another Layer for News Traders

Why Can Futures Rally on a Mixed WASDE?

Algorithms Process Many Fields at Once

Month-over-Month Changes Matter

Consensus Matters Too

Positioning Can Amplify the First Move

Immediate Reaction vs. the Rest of the Session

What the September WASDE Shows News Traders

WASDE Requires Multi-Field Parsing

U.S. and Global Numbers Can Conflict

Prior Estimates Are as Important as Consensus

Speed Alone Is Not Enough

Measured Movement Is Not Guaranteed Profit

HAAWKS Conclusion

Machine-Readable Data for Professional News Traders

Sources

Why the Early EIA Release Matters to News Traders

Key Inventory Surprises at 12:00 p.m. ET

WTI Falls 30 Ticks on the Early Data

What Was Already Available in the Early Overview?

Imports, Exports and Supply Added More Context

Demand Indicators Were Also Available Before the Full Report

Why the Initial WTI Signal Was Bearish

Crude Drew Less Than Expected

Gasoline Swung to a Build

Distillates Also Built

Total Commercial Stocks Rose

But the Release Was Not Bearish in Every Detail