According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 61 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 3 July 2025.
USDJPY (40 pips)
EURUSD (21 pips)
Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).
July 2025 U.S. Jobs Report: Modest Gains Fuel Cautious Market Response
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Employment Situation Report on July 3, revealing moderate but steady growth in the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, aligning closely with the 12-month average gain of 146,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, showing little change from previous months and continuing the trend of a relatively tight labor market.
Key Highlights from the Report:
State Government and Health Care led job creation, adding 47,000 and 39,000 jobs respectively.
Federal Government employment declined by 7,000, bringing the total loss since January to 69,000.
Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% to $36.30, while wages for production and nonsupervisory workers climbed 0.3% to $31.24.
Long-term unemployment rose by 190,000 to 1.6 million, now accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed.
The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%.
Market Reaction: USDJPY and EURUSD Move Modestly
Despite the data being mostly in line with expectations, forex markets saw mild volatility in response to the release:
USDJPY rose by 40 pips, signaling modest dollar strength likely tied to steady wage growth and job gains.
EURUSD slipped by 21 pips, a subdued reaction reflecting limited surprises in the report.
Overall, the total move across USDJPY and EURUSD was 61 pips, indicating a muted but focused market response, particularly ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend.
What It Means for Traders
The June report did little to shake market sentiment but reaffirmed the narrative of gradual economic cooling without triggering recession fears. Wage growth remains solid, and job creation—though slower than earlier in the recovery—is still healthy. With the Fed watching inflation and labor market metrics closely, this report may not alter near-term rate expectations significantly but reinforces a “wait-and-see” stance.
Looking ahead, the next Employment Situation Report is scheduled for Friday, August 1, 2025, which could play a more pivotal role in shaping monetary policy expectations as more data accumulate.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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